The Next American President Thread (2016)

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  • Posts: 1,631
    It's not exactly true that only a third of the country is "ready" for a female president. An Economist poll taken last year indicates otherwise:

    Two-thirds of Americans say they are ready for a female president
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,453
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".

    The one flaw in this theory: Bernie Sanders failing to get the nomination, combined with 8 years of ineffective democratic rein will result in the lowest democratic turn out in history, allowing Trump to sweep his way into the White house. Republicans win when there is a low voter turn out.

    Trump's candidacy will re-invigorate the Democrats. The majority of people in this country do not want to see Donald Trump as president. Polls have showed this time and time again.

    The Democrats will also get a chunk of angry Republicans voting for them as well. I'll be one of them if I can convince myself to hold my nose and vote for Clinton. If the vote was today, I wouldn't vote, but I've got eight months to convince myself to vote for Clinton, and there are many Republicans (even some in Congress) who have floated the idea that they might do the same.

    There's also the other very real possibility to consider. There's talk now that the conservative wing of the Republican party may mount an independent bid for the White House. The idea being that in order to save the party they have to tank this particular election. A third party run by a conservative guarantees a Clinton or Sanders victory in November.

    Now, with all that said, Trump does have a very real chance to defeat Hillary Clinton. It's just not going to be nearly as easy as you claim it will be. Clinton is a very experienced politician with a massive political machine. Trump, on the other hand, has none of those things going for him.

    regarding your first paragraph- The problem is that barely anyone want's to see Hilary as president.

    second paragraph- And the republican's will get a bunch of angry democrats, who wold rather vote for the 'free' candidate than the bought one. They will see this as being more of a protest vote. Either that or they won't vote at all.

    third paragraph- you are right about this, I agree. Republicans would rather have an establishment candidate in office, even if it is a democrat. This could happen.

    I think it comes down to momentum. Trump has the momentum currently. Clinton doesn't gain momentum by being the guaranteed nominee, in a way it works against her. She is very quiet in the headlines at the moment.
    There is no republican that can take the steam from Trump and win it. The party is too fractured for that. It'll either be Trump, or it'll be a brokered convention, or, as you say, they'll get Romney or someone to run as a third party.

    I think Cruz tonight will emerge as the guy that can catch Trump. It pains me to say that because I want to see Cruz as president even less than I do Trump. If Cruz wins Maine and then goes on to do well in Louisiana, then Cruz will be in great shape.

    This would actually lead to Trump possibly contributing to his own demise in Florida. He's going for the "kill shot" on Rubio there. The problem, though, is that he's best served by Rubio staying in the race, as he helps split the anti-Trump vote. If Cruz does well tonight and then Trump finishes Rubio off in Florida, then Cruz emerges as a very viable threat to Trump and does have a chance to reach 1,237 delegates. Cruz currently trails Trump by less than a 100.

    I don't think Romney will run as a third party candidate. The only way Romney is a presidential candidate in the general election is as the Republican nominee coming out of an open convention. The conservatives will prop some Tea Party lackey up as a third-party candidate and just hope to keep the Republican party from actually coming to an end after November.

    If you ignore everthing else I have to say, just listen to this next sentence:

    Cruz has absolutely zero chance of becoming the nominee.

    There is zero chance of that being the case. He simply does not have a broad enough appeal. America is moving more to the left with each passing year, so if someone like Cruz is the best thing the Republican party has to offer it's a sad state of affairs. I mean, it basically means its basically a one party race at that point. Cruz is the very definition of unelectable. I can see what you're saying with regards to the delegate counts, I just cannot find it in me to believe that the republican party would be THAT brain dead dumb.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    dalton wrote: »
    It's not exactly true that only a third of the country is "ready" for a female president. An Economist poll taken last year indicates otherwise:

    Two-thirds of Americans say they are ready for a female president

    Dench's M helped with this I am sure.
  • Posts: 1,631
    Well, I very much disagree. He has a very solid chance of being the nominee. That chance goes up if Rubio drops out of the race after Florida. You're right, he's unelectable in a left-moving country, but the Republican party is not moving to the left at the same pace, if at all.

    I would be horrified if Cruz was the nominee. As someone who is about as close to being a Republican without having actually registered as one, I don't want to see "my" party choose someone like him as the nominee. But, it is a possibility at this point.

    Plus, I'd say you have a much better opinion of the current state of the Republican party than I do. :D Given the position we find ourselves in today, with a two-man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, I'd say that they already have already gone down the route you describe in your last sentence. :)
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    dalton wrote: »
    he's unelectable in a left-moving country
    Which country would THAT be?

  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    edited March 2016 Posts: 8,453
    dalton wrote: »
    Well, I very much disagree. He has a very solid chance of being the nominee. That chance goes up if Rubio drops out of the race after Florida. You're right, he's unelectable in a left-moving country, but the Republican party is not moving to the left at the same pace, if at all.

    I would be horrified if Cruz was the nominee. As someone who is about as close to being a Republican without having actually registered as one, I don't want to see "my" party choose someone like him as the nominee. But, it is a possibility at this point.

    Plus, I'd say you have a much better opinion of the current state of the Republican party than I do. :D Given the position we find ourselves in today, with a two-man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, I'd say that they already have already gone down the route you describe in your last sentence. :)


    You're right about that! :))

    Still it would be nice to think that there was some genuine party competition, as apposed to one side going with the ultra establishment candidate (Hillary is a reptile in disguise), and the other side having to decide between some whack job fundamentalist and a circus clown.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    Vote for Bernie.
  • Posts: 1,631
    chrisisall wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    he's unelectable in a left-moving country
    Which country would THAT be?

    The US has been moving left for years.

    Granted, it's mostly on social issues, which have been long-overdue. But, it's also politically. They just said a few seconds ago on CNN that the political makeup of the country has been changing since Ronald Reagan took office, with most of the electorate moving to an "independent" identification rather than identifying with the Democrats or Republicans. Their numbers also bear out that the Republicans have suffered the most migration in this process.

    While it's true that independents can just as easily vote Republican as Democrat, I would say that they're still to the left of the Republican party because they obviously have to identify with some aspects of the Democratic party or other left-leaning groups to call themselves independents, otherwise they'd be Republicans or backing similarly conservative groups.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    @dalton

    Thank you for that information.

    For us "outsiders" it is somewhat puzzling what is going on in this election.
    Sure, we are accustomed to this circus, 2008 was particularly funny with the infamous Sarah Palin, but this year is beating everything.
    You wouldn't believe how Trump is dominating the press here as well. One could almost think he is running for Switzerland or Germany :)) there is so much coverage.

    Personally I'd prefer Trump any day over Cruz. I'm quite worried Cruz might get the ticket in the end. Against him George W. Bush/Cheney are harmless choir boys.
  • Posts: 1,631
    @dalton

    Thank you for that information.

    For us "outsiders" it is somewhat puzzling what is going on in this election.
    Sure, we are accustomed to this circus, 2008 was particularly funny with the infamous Sarah Palin, but this year is beating everything.
    You wouldn't believe how Trump is dominating the press here as well. One could almost think he is running for Switzerland or Germany :)) there is so much coverage.

    Personally I'd prefer Trump any day over Cruz. I'm quite worried Cruz might get the ticket in the end. Against him George W. Bush/Cheney are harmless choir boys.

    You're welcome.

    The only way Cruz gets the nomination is to outright get 1,237 delegates. If it comes down to an open convention, Cruz won't get it. At that point, the establishment will be in the driver's seat to choose a nominee, with Trump (assuming he has more delegates than Cruz at that point) sitting in the best position of the declared nominees.

    If it comes to an open convention, though, I can't see Cruz getting it. The establishment hates him. His colleagues in Congress outright despise him as well. There's a reason that he can't get endorsements. He won't be able to coalesce those delegates behind him to get him the nomination unless he secures those delegates in advance through their being bound by the popular vote in the initial rounds of voting.

  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    dalton wrote: »

    The US has been moving left for years.

    Which US? An alternate reality US?
    The US I live in has been moving RIGHT for years. Fascism has taken hold and Robocop-style police brutality is now an accepted thing. Drone strikes, eminent domain, fraking for profit on government held land whilst destroying aquifers.... it's OCPville...
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    Bernie just got Kansas.
  • Posts: 1,631
    Those things (mostly the police brutality, but others as well) have been happening for years, we're now just seeing it more because of social media and every citizen having a camera in their cell phones. They were also tolerated by the general population, or at least not looked down upon, by the general population and allowed to continue, even if in the shadows.

    I think that these things are being discussed and heatedly debated shows that we are moving to the left. Most of what you're talking about are supported by the right, or those that would claim to associate themselves with the right (but are really just fringe factions of the right). The left is generally opposed to these ideals, and we're seeing the public sentiment towards them moving more and more to the anti-side than the pro-side.

    Now, we're nowhere near the kind of leftist country that some of the European socialist countries are, but we're moving left. It's a slow move, but we're moving that way. We've been moving left on social issues at a much faster clip, though.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    dalton wrote: »
    we're moving left. It's a slow move, but we're moving that way. We've been moving left on social issues at a much faster clip, though.
    I can agree with that... we are closing in on Center...
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,453
    chrisisall wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    we're moving left. It's a slow move, but we're moving that way. We've been moving left on social issues at a much faster clip, though.
    I can agree with that... we are closing in on Center...

    Bernie Sanders is just the beginning. There is a revolution coming, I think, that will see America moving into the European model of capitalism supplemented by democratic socialism. The hedge fund guys have reason to panic, IMO.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    chrisisall wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    we're moving left. It's a slow move, but we're moving that way. We've been moving left on social issues at a much faster clip, though.
    I can agree with that... we are closing in on Center...

    Bernie Sanders is just the beginning. There is a revolution coming, I think, that will see America moving into the European model of capitalism supplemented by democratic socialism. The hedge fund guys have reason to panic, IMO.

    We reach, brother.
  • Posts: 1,631
    I can't see a revolution coming. The revolution would have to come from the younger generation, who have a terrible track record of coming out to vote. Those that have the power that a revolution would take away from are too much entrenched in the US power structure to move to a European-style socialist setup.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    dalton wrote: »
    I can't see a revolution coming. The revolution would have to come from the younger generation, who have a terrible track record of coming out to vote. Those that have the power that a revolution would take away from are too much entrenched in the US power structure to move to a European-style socialist setup.
    "There's something happening here...."
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,453
    dalton wrote: »
    I can't see a revolution coming. The revolution would have to come from the younger generation, who have a terrible track record of coming out to vote. Those that have the power that a revolution would take away from are too much entrenched in the US power structure to move to a European-style socialist setup.

    yeah, but that younger generation will be ripe for the picking in another 5 years. These things are slow, but patience is a virtue.

  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    To be honest I think America has been on the decline, since leaving the Empire ! :D

    ( Only joking guys, don't want to start another war )
  • Posts: 7,653
    To be honest I think America has been on the decline, since leaving the Empire ! :D

    ( Only joking guys, don't want to start another war )

    Thye will start plenty new wars when Trump gets the job, the first one with Mexico when they tell him what to do with his wall and a place where the sun never shines.

    :D
  • Posts: 344
    Considering the US has been at war for 222 of the 239 years since independence, more wars seem inevitable and business as usual
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    I'm just glad to see a multimillionaire white guy at last. Have a chance
    To be President. :D
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    I'm just glad to see a multimillionaire white guy at last. Have a chance
    To be President. :D
    It's just because he's too out of shape to fit in a Batsuit.
  • Posts: 1,631
    SaintMark wrote: »
    To be honest I think America has been on the decline, since leaving the Empire ! :D

    ( Only joking guys, don't want to start another war )

    Thye will start plenty new wars when Trump gets the job, the first one with Mexico when they tell him what to do with his wall and a place where the sun never shines.

    :D

    If Trump becomes president and they actually reach the point where he has to sit down with his Mexican counterpart to begin that negotiation, they ought to televise it. The comedy factor of watching the Mexican president tell him off would be hilarious.

    What Trump's hardcore supporters, much like Bernie's hardcore supporters on the left, don't realize is that what he's proposing isn't going to happen. Even if the GOP holds both houses of Congress, Trump's wall isn't going to get built. They're not going to allocate the $8-12 billion it would cost for him to begin construction on it. Trump can campaign all he wants to on building the wall, but I think it's fairly safe to say that come 2020 we're going to be able to look at the US/Mexico border and see it look fairly similar to the way it does now.

  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    @dalton

    I'm not going to argue with you about the cost of such a wall but you have to know that walls have been built before and some are currently in the works in the middle of Europe, which is grotesque but it really happens and obviously it is possible to do it even if a state (Hungary for example) has a huge debt.
  • Posts: 1,631
    @dalton

    I'm not going to argue with you about the cost of such a wall but you have to know that walls have been built before and some are currently in the works in the middle of Europe, which is grotesque but it really happens and obviously it is possible to do it even if a state (Hungary for example) has a huge debt.

    It's not the debt that's going to keep Trump from building the wall, though. They could easily build the wall, and the estimated $8-12 billion it would take to build it wouldn't even but a dent in the national debt by keeping that money in reserve.

    Congress won't allocate the money on purely ideological grounds. Trump may want the wall, but he'll have to go through Congress to get it. Can't see it happening, given how the GOP is desperate, after Romney's failed 2012 bid, to win back some support from those that they turned off with his "self deportation" platform on immigration.

  • Posts: 344
    This may seem a dumb question, but considering how strict US border controls are at airports (and number of fences at airports ensuring travellers pass through immigration) what precisely is the issue of building a wall?
  • Posts: 1,631
    The wall wouldn't be built at airports. Trump is talking about building a wall that stretches across most of the US/Mexico border.
  • Posts: 6,022
    If my experience in West-Berlin has told me anything, is that people desperate enough to go to the other side will always find a way to go there, no matter how high of big the wall is. In other words, that wall will be as useful as the Berlin Wall was.
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