The Next American President Thread (2016)

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  • Posts: 1,631
    I doubt that Trump is all that worried about Cruz. If anything, it might have helped him. The party, at least those in the convention hall, seemed to be more united after Cruz's stunt than before. Even a good number of Cruz's hardcore supporters in the room turned on him last night. CNN reported that Cruz's campaign chair in Virginia, a key swing state each cycle, was furious with Cruz and will most likely refuse to support him in 2020.
  • Posts: 11,119
    Politico.com's Glenn Thrush:
    Turns out that when you bully a guy for months, suggest his wife is unattractive, insinuate that his dad participated in the JFK assassination, call him "Lyin' Ted," dispatch your bouncer-like emissaries to coerce an endorsement —then give him a prime-time speaking spot on the third night of your nominating convention—well, you get the picture.
  • Posts: 1,631
    Politico.com's Glenn Thrush:
    Turns out that when you bully a guy for months, suggest his wife is unattractive, insinuate that his dad participated in the JFK assassination, call him "Lyin' Ted," dispatch your bouncer-like emissaries to coerce an endorsement —then give him a prime-time speaking spot on the third night of your nominating convention—well, you get the picture.

    That's all true, but in the end, I think Trump played it perfectly. He set the thing up so that he'd get what he wanted either way. Either Cruz endorsed him and he got the most elusive endorsement from the 16 GOP challengers, or Cruz refused to do so and he got to position himself as the victim to Cruz's antics. The added bonus for him was that Cruz took it a step further and made a complete fool out of himself in the process.

    In the end, this debacle was a win for the GOP, both short term and long term. In the short term, it helped unify the Trump and Cruz factions, at least those in the convention hall, a bit more behind Trump than they had been before. Long term, it has the potential to severely damage Cruz's political future. The donors are reportedly furious with him, so it's possible he could seek a primary challenger when he's up for re-election in 2 years. Also, if Cruz's brand is irrevocably damaged, and Trump loses, then they're both potentially out of the political picture, which could pave the way for more moderate and sane voices in the party to gain a foothold.
  • edited July 2016 Posts: 11,119
    dalton wrote: »
    I doubt that Trump is all that worried about Cruz. If anything, it might have helped him. The party, at least those in the convention hall, seemed to be more united after Cruz's stunt than before. Even a good number of Cruz's hardcore supporters in the room turned on him last night. CNN reported that Cruz's campaign chair in Virginia, a key swing state each cycle, was furious with Cruz and will most likely refuse to support him in 2020.

    Are you kidding? I think this narrative is damaging. You tend to forget one important thing here: There's 'Trumpism' and there are the core conservative ideals of the GOP. Those are clashing heavily right now. And even if 'Trumpism' now is like 65% part of the GOP, the less populist voices and 'true' Conservatives (Trump is NOT a Conservative!) within the party still make out 35% of the GOP.

    Even if it backfires on Cruz' entire career, it still makes Trump look unprofessional; a guy who doesn't even know to unify the GOP. This destroys every bit of unity that normally a convention wants to bring about. People start asking questions now: If Trump let's this mess in Cleveland happen, then what will happen if he's controlling the buttons in the Oval Office?

    You can blame it on the Cruz, but again Trump has caused this madness himself in a way. The above quote from Politico mentions it very well. If you say this all helps the GOP, then you are seriously deluded.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2016 Posts: 15,723
    People have said that Trump has badly damaged his campaign, every week since he officially announced he was running. He beat all the odds, got the GOP nominations, and is not very far off Clinton in the polls. Everyone laughed at him 5/6 months ago. So who the hell knows if this damaged his campaign? This is the wildest elections in a long time, if ever, so any prediction is useless, because by tomorrow the situation will be flipped on its head. And so on and so on. I thought months ago that there was no chance in hell that Trump would get the GOP nom. And he got it by a fairly big margin. This is insane shit. All predictions are off. I have never seen an election like this.
  • edited July 2016 Posts: 1,631
    If you bothered to actually read what I posted, you'd find that I didn't say the party was totally united. They're not. But, last night's stunt put some Cruz supporters in the hall over to the other side.

    It helps the GOP in terms of getting them to closer to a place where Trump and Cruz no longer are leaders in the party. The party cannot be strong with either of them leading it.

  • Posts: 11,119
    People have said that Trump has badly damaged his campaign, every week since he officially announced he was running. He beat all the odds, got the GOP nominations, and is not very far off Clinton in the polls. Everyone laughed at him 5/6 months ago. So who the hell knows if this damaged his campaign? This is the wildest elections in a long time, if ever, so any prediction is useless, because by tomorrow the situation will be flipped on its head. And so on and so on.

    You know........I think you should actually mention Donald Trump Jr. now. Because his speech was actually damn nice! THAT'S how Trump Sr. himself should have positioned himself.

    I think we're still overestimating the importance of conventions here. Generally, since 2008, the DNC is taking place within two weeks of the RNC, so any big bounce should not be expected. Not in the short-term polls.

    But the image of this 2016 RNC is already starting to stick like glue at Trumps character.

    Also, ask yourself why such an 'unconventional' campaign still isn't resulting in a more solid lead for Trump in the polls. I know it's too damn early to draw conclusions from the polls, but if you can't lead Clinton now by +3% to +5%, then you need to be self-critical and asking yourself if you're making some mistakes.

    In some ways Trump's campaign reminds me a lot of Wallace's campaign from 1968:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968

    Also George Wallace's supporters were so unified behind Trump. But obviously he could never win. Because from a demographical point of view there simply weren't enough Wallace supporters. That's the trouble Trump is facing too. I think he simply doesn't bring in enough independents and moderates.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited July 2016 Posts: 23,883
    @dalton, Trump Jr. was on Morning Joe this morning. He confirmed that overtures were made to Kasich in April for VP, and that was part of strategic discussions prior to the primary process being completed and as the Trump team was considering how to fend off Cruz's delegate challenge. He confirmed the preliminary discussions and also said that it didn't get to the next level and that Kasich wasn't even vetted. He said the comments about an all powerful VP are incorrect, but that Trump wanted someone who was known. As I said earlier, there was probably some truth to it and some falsity.

    Re: Cruz last night: It made for political and tv theatre, but it's a side show for me. We know there's party disunity. Ultimately I believe we saw one ambitious person destroy his political career on national tv, but he also affirmed his conservative principles. It was his choice.

    I have no idea how Trump coordinated his 757 to fly right into the frame as Cruz was bragging about his achievements in the campaign yesterday afternoon in Cleveland, but it was again, interesting tv.

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2016 Posts: 15,723
    As I said, who the hell knows what will happen on Election day, let alone next week? If you read back this thread from the beginning, apart from @bondjames (and even he was sceptical about it), no one here actually believed 100%, or even at 50% that Trump would get the GOP nominations. Look at @TripAces, who firmly believed up to a few weeks ago that there were no chance in hell that Trump would be elected President. Now, @TripAces is not that sure anymore about the outcome. The fact is that Trump has beaten all the odds up to this point. Granted the real show will start soon between Trump and Clinton, but there is absolutely no way anyone will predict what will happen. So you can stop making assumptions, because all of them in the past 7+ months have been revealed as false.
  • Posts: 11,119
    The big thing is though: If you're constantly behind in the polls, you simply have to do a bit better with the convention. Not for the sake of doing better in those same polls, but at least to show some unity. SOME unity.

    Perhaps we, 'Trumpians', supporters of Kasich and Cruz now that there has always been a lack of unity yes. But that's not what should be the only conclusion here. Even if I were a loyal Trump-supporter, I would feel agitated about all this. You simply don't want this to happen.

    Lastly, one should always make assumptions if your key goal is to improve. For that you need a healthy bit of self-criticism. Not just a glaring ignorance of pundits, advicers, pollsters & experts. He should use them carefully in his own advantage. Because frankly as a president you are in need of experts.

    Sadly, Trump isn't able at doing that....not yet. So the big question should be: Will Trump be able to do that once he is president?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2016 Posts: 15,723
    The 'big thing' is, in any normal situation, Trump should have been destroyed from the get go with his insanely simplistic and stupid soundbites like 'let's build a wall between us and Mexico', 'let's ban muslims from entering the country', etc. Clinton should have walked all over him, and at least a few GOP rivals should have been able to blow him out of the water with all the shit he has been saying. It's almost a mathematical certainty that a person as insane as Trump saying such insane things should have been blown to pieces in any debate. But, none of that happened, and the idea of Trump being elected is a possibility as of July 21 2016. You couldn't make this stuff up.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 8,334
    Honestly, tried to watch that Cruz speach, but what drivel! How can anyone buy this utter nonsense? This political drama. Makes one vomit. The whole bloody story about the Dallas policeman! Poor man probably turned in his grave if his name was used for such a corny speach. Then again, the audienc seemed to by it. If this is the typical level of what's coming, I guess Trump will become president.
  • edited July 2016 Posts: 11,119
    Honestly, tried to watch that Cruz speach, but what drivel! How can anyone buy this utter nonsense? This political drama. Makes one vomit. The whole bloody story about the Dallas policeman! Poor man probably turned in his grave if his name was used for such a corny speach. Then again, the audienc seemed to by it. If this is the typical level of what's coming, I guess Trump will become president.

    I find it a pretty good speech, especially from the point of view of being a nuanced, articulate Conservative. 'Trumpism' isn't the typical Conservatism. It's nothing more than an inconsistent populist, screamy, TV-friendly version of it.

    Like I mentioned in my comparison with other conventions on page #62, Cruz speech reminded me a lot in tone, build-up and style of that of Ted Kennedy's speech from the DNC 1980 convention.

    So I think it's pretty unfair to blast Cruz, when all what should have been happening was a more controlled audience, especially from the New York delegation. Was Kennedy booed back in 1980? No. So why should Cruz be booed? Ask yourself that. And in the end it's still a GOP-convention, in which IMO also different voices should and must be heard. Luckily the DNC knows better how to deal with that.

    If you're so much in favor of an uncontrolled campaign....and especially freedom...then don't mock that same freedom.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited July 2016 Posts: 23,883
    Just think, if it wasn't for Trump, we might be contemplating Cruz as president right now. I can't think of anything more annoying or uncomfortable than hearing his corny contrived speeches for the next four years.
  • Posts: 1,631
    bondjames wrote: »
    Just think, if it wasn't for Trump, we might be contemplating Cruz as president right now. I can't think of anything more annoying or uncomfortable than hearing his corny contrived speeches for the next four years.

    It's awful just thinking about the possibility.

    Just leave it to the voters to take a field of nearly 20 and come up with the two worst possible candidates.
  • Posts: 315
    Hillary will be elected POTUS in November. Trump beat a bunch of super flawed, under financed and uninspired group of Republicans. He has support from the uneducated and old white men. He gets crushed by the Hispanic, African-American, college educated, women and union voters. It all depends on turnout. Trump does not expand the base, he simply mines the same old shrinking group.

    And you can see why Trump will lose in the actions of many of his supporters. They don't want discussions on issues, they just howl at the moon. And you know who you are.

    Met Ivanka Trump a few times when she was developing Trump Tower in Chicago and she is the best of his kids. Articulate, detail-oriented and real sharp.

    Thanks for your response, Earmuffs. I know you;ll love this one from Bill Maher.

    33938.jpg?ts=1468642094
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 8,334
    dalton wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    Just think, if it wasn't for Trump, we might be contemplating Cruz as president right now. I can't think of anything more annoying or uncomfortable than hearing his corny contrived speeches for the next four years.

    It's awful just thinking about the possibility.

    Just leave it to the voters to take a field of nearly 20 and come up with the two worst possible candidates.

    On the other hand it might give space travel a boost....
  • Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    Just think, if it wasn't for Trump, we might be contemplating Cruz as president right now. I can't think of anything more annoying or uncomfortable than hearing his corny contrived speeches for the next four years.

    Just think if Clinton had to suffer a revolt like this. If Sanders revolted against Clinton in a similar way. I'm curious how you would have responded then.

    Anyway, in the end, I think Trump himself facilitated this 'corny, contrived speech'. It's so damn funny how everyone (most of us) in here frees 'the Donald' from every bit of blame, when this actually happened. I call that shameful:
    Politico.com's Glenn Thrush: Turns out that when you bully a guy for months, suggest his wife is unattractive, insinuate that his dad participated in the JFK assassination, call him "Lyin' Ted," dispatch your bouncer-like emissaries to coerce an endorsement —then give him a prime-time speaking spot on the third night of your nominating convention—well, you get the picture.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited July 2016 Posts: 23,883
    @Gustav_Graves, as normal you are getting worked up about something that I'm not. My comments on speeches were referring to Cruz as prospective president.

    As I said in my opening post of the day, Cruz's speech yesterday is a sideshow to me. I don't think the Trump campaign is too worried about it either. It made for good tv, and gave us a little more insight into Cruz the man, that's about it.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 8,334
    Moreover, Cruz couldn't hurt Trump unless he was actually attacking him physically, so it's uninteresting what Cruz says at best. @Gustav you may not have noticed, but old standrds in politics of what is damaging and what is not have been completely eradicated since Trump's ascent to the nomination.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,257
    Is all that we see or seem
    But a dream within a dream?
  • Posts: 1,631
    The whole Trump campaign has operated on the old adage of "there's no such thing as bad publicity". I wouldn't be surprised if the Cruz thing was staged to a degree, at least from Trump's end. He did see the text of the speech two hours before Cruz took the stage and allowed him to deliver it anyway. Everyone's talking about the convention, albeit in an almost entirely negative way, but they're talking, and that's been the MO of the campaign from the beginning.

    I wish it could be as simple to say that Clinton will run away with this election, but as @CommanderRoss says, the old standards of politics have gone out the window in this cycle. Trump, on a comparatively shoestring budget and powered by a campaign run by his children, is neck and neck with the big money machine of the Clintons. If it were someone other than Trump, that would probably be a comforting thing to think about, but given who it is, it's concerning since there appears to be no conventional playbook that Clinton can draw from to put this thing away as quickly as she should be able to based on the repugnant nature of her competition.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited July 2016 Posts: 23,883
    Here's an interview between Larry King and Trump/Melania in 2005. At about 10:20 to 12:00 he essentially says the same thing. The media want to reaffirm the impressions they have and he plays into it. He has been surprisingly less boisterous over the past few days though, even with provocation, so the pivot is upon us. Who knows where it will lead.
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    edited July 2016 Posts: 4,589
    As I said, who the hell knows what will happen on Election day, let alone next week? If you read back this thread from the beginning, apart from @bondjames (and even he was sceptical about it), no one here actually believed 100%, or even at 50% that Trump would get the GOP nominations. Look at @TripAces, who firmly believed up to a few weeks ago that there were no chance in hell that Trump would be elected President. Now, @TripAces is not that sure anymore about the outcome. The fact is that Trump has beaten all the odds up to this point. Granted the real show will start soon between Trump and Clinton, but there is absolutely no way anyone will predict what will happen. So you can stop making assumptions, because all of them in the past 7+ months have been revealed as false.

    This is true. But I wouldn't say it's because of Trump; I think the investigation into Hillary's email server is going to drag on and be a contentious issue.

    Given that in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, the race is tight, it tells us that something's up, especially since Hilary has outspent Trump by a wide margin so far. And she has nothing to show for that. Nothing.

    However, this convention is a debacle. And Trump's recent statements about not protecting NATO allies from Russia is troubling. The debates will likely show Hillary as the better candidate, and so I would still; put my money on her. (But not a lot.)
  • Posts: 315
    As bad as the debacle in Cleveland has been, at least no speaker referenced the Nazis or Hitler by anything they did on stage. Whew! That would have been really terrible. Right, Laura Inghram?

    screen_shot_20160720_at_9.21.09_pm.png.CROP.promo-xlarge2.21.09_pm.png
  • 0BradyM0Bondfanatic70BradyM0Bondfanatic7 Quantum Floral Arrangements: "We Have Petals Everywhere"
    Posts: 28,694
    Don't see the fuss over the Cruz speech, to be honest. I must have missed his resilient, determined and powered stance against Trump; more Mr. Chips than Scarface. All I saw was about twenty minutes of a circle-jerk where he kept repeating how great America is and can be with that pompous smile, and yada, yada, yada.
  • He didn't say the words that were demanded of him. "Muslim extremism" or "I endorse" or "Jail Her!!!" -- the actual words are immaterial. All that matters is complete submission or you will be crushed.
  • 0BradyM0Bondfanatic70BradyM0Bondfanatic7 Quantum Floral Arrangements: "We Have Petals Everywhere"
    Posts: 28,694
    That's what I'm saying: I don't get the big deal. He showed up and didn't say "I endorse Trump." Forgive me if I miss all the fuss. One, that's not surprising and two, that's not a big deal at all, or worthy of such media coverage; quite lack luster. This was all read in the wind.

    Did people actually think Cruz would support Trump after all he did to him? Come on, now. If this was back in the 1800s where men in politics made actual bold moves against each other instead of exchanging hollow words, we'd be following Teddy and Don out to a field to watch them duel to the death with single-shot pistols. Now that's a big deal!
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,830
    I just bumped into James Bond a restaurant in NYC! I asked him what he thought of American politics, Trump as a candidate for POTUS, and who he's vote for himself if he could.
    He smiled slightly and said "Here's what I think. No comment."

    :-??
  • edited July 2016 Posts: 1,631
    I think the main fuss with the Cruz thing is twofold. First, it's mainly because it's Cruz. You can count the number of people involved with Washington who like him on one hand. I think had he made the exact same speech he had made on Day 2 of the convention, he probably gets through it relatively unscathed. It could have even served as some distraction from the negative press from the Melania speech, as that story had legs for a bit longer than I think most people predicted it would. But people in the party hate Cruz and are more than happy to criticize him at a moment's notice. These people are completely correct in doing so, because Cruz has been terrible for both the country and the party.

    Probably his biggest issue was that the whole thing upstaged Mike Pence, who took the stage to accept the VP nomination not long after that. I would imagine that a lot of the outcry in the room came from those that were upset that Cruz wasn't trying to bring the party together with his speech but also because the story has overshadowed what most in the media and Republican circles are saying was a pretty well received speech by Pence. In short, it was supposed to be Pence's night, not Cruz's. Aside from the New York delegation and those intimately involved in the Trump campaign, I'd imagine that a lot of the anger directed at Cruz last night was due to his overshadowing of the party's VP nominee.

    I just happened to get a kick out of it because, after the reaction to Cruz, if his career ends up taking a huge hit and Trump ends up losing in November, the GOP will be rid of its two biggest cancers in a matter of four months.
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