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Many people in here know I admire Hillary Clinton. Many people also know that @BondJames is more critical about Hillary Clinton. But I do think, like @BondJames, that the presidential race is far far from over.
Despite the Trump campaign being in complete shambles and Hillary Clinton consistently leading with double digits in various national polls (It seems that even Arizona, Georgia and even South-Carolina seem to be up for grabs, which is bad news for Trump), I still think Trump has a chance to win the elections.
Because, like @BondJames, I agree that Trump isn't an ordinary candidate. Any establishment candidate could pack his bags at this stage of the campaign. Here are a few reasons why I think Trump can still realistically win it:
A) The conventions were taking place much earlier in the race than previous recent election years. So despite the fact that the DNC took place almost two weeks ago, we still have a full 3 months to go. Leaving open way more 'surprises', and also more room to reset a campaign and become another 'come-back-kid'.
B) And an 'October Surprise' really is on its way. As we know already, WikiLeaks did some serious damage with regard to the Democratic National Committee (pro-Russian hacker Guccifer 2.0). Chairman Wasserman-Schultz had to step down. And ad-interim chair Donna Brazile is still busy cleaning the mess. Julian Assange already hinted that next in line of damaging leaks could be Hillary Clinton herself: https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/09/an-october-surprise-for-hillary-clinton/ . Make no mistake, @BondJames several times said that all these hacks and leaks are only sidetracks. But I think they could become damaging if new leaks give away some dirty information about one of the Clinton Foundation's 'bundlers' (people, and even foreign nations contributing $10.000,- or more). If one of these 'bundlers' have actively funded some efforts to get co-founder Hillary Clinton elected as US-Senator or...President, then that's damaging. Make no mistake, I hate men like Julian Assange, and I think for that reason he should hack Trump's tax returns. He might even imply that a former DNC-employee turned into a WikiLeaks informant and was killed for it. But fact is, the Democrats were hacked, and they should be serious about this.
C) Other 'October Surprises' could include some bad economic reports coming up around September and October, in which the Fed needs to raise the interest rates: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-surge-complicates-rate-hike-decision/ . The weird thing is, that the recent job growths (a good thing for the Democrats) might be a reason for the Fed to raise the interest rates as well (a good thing for the Republicans). Another 'October Surprise' could be another terrorist attack, this time an attack that could be even bigger than the one in Orlando, Florida. If it's an attack that's closer in nature to 9/11, then this could change the nature of the election cycle as well.
D) As I said before, Donald Trump isn't an ordinary candidate. To me he seems as ethically unjust and bad as our own Geert Wilders. But like Geert Wilders, he is also a damn smart mediaplayer. He knows what people vote for him. And those people may be way more forgiving as people who generally vote for establishment candidates. So when it might look as if he destroyed his chances like Dukakis in 1988 and Walter Mondale in 1984, he might actually rise up again from the ashes of a campaign in shambles....for the very simple reason that his voters admire outsiders who can rise up again from the dead. For establishment candidates that's way more difficult.
E) And that very nature of Donald Trump could be reflected in the recent polls (and upcoming polls until November 8th). Many people who are being polled could simply choose not to openly say for who they will vote, because their choice is Donald Trump. And there's still a certain stigma created in part by the media that prevents possible voters to be honest about their support for outsider candidates like Barack Obama back in 2008 (at that moment in time most definately an outsider and a 'mild populist'), and Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump during these 2016 elections. Especially supporters of Trump could be part of a 'silent majority' that feel in public ashamed about Trump, but who in the end will vote for him anyway: https://www.thenation.com/article/are-hillary-clintons-strong-poll-numbers-misleading/
Make no mistake, I want Hillary Clinton to become president. Many people know my reasons for it. I have valid reasons for it and I'm passionate about them.
But the race 'ain't over until it's over'. And my gut feeling tells me that only one guy can rise up from a campaign that is in complete self-destruct mode right now. And, I'm saddened to admit that this guy's name is Donald Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the US Elections in a 2000-esque fashion. And if he does so, I will be gutted.
The only solace that Clinton supporters, like me, right now have, is the fact that Hillary Clinton is indeed doing much better in the polls than The Donald. So like @BondJames, I am realistic enough to be prepared for whatever scenario ;-). The difference is that we have some fundamental differences on who we prefer to see as the next US President.
I share your sentiment completely @CommanderRoss. But it's only logical. 'The West' as we know it is rapidly loosing power on this planet and with it prosperity and welfare. The first people who feel this are the people who are forced out of middle class situations. And we know what people usually see that first. On top of that, despite all the hate on other continents about 'The West', many poor people on those continents still realize that 'The West' could give them the best possible future. Hence the insane and uncontrollable immigration crisis. Make no mistake, I see this as simple natural redistribution of wealth. If you want it or not, new powers come...and go. And with it growth in population.
I have been saying this for years. And it saddens me when I think about it. But I'm afraid there's not much you can do about it. Even the Trump's and Wilders' will become disappointed if they have governed our nations for four years.
Are you kidding? Link?
I remember a New Hampshire delegate during the GOP-convention who openly said: "Hillary Clinton should be put in front of a firing squad. She should be shot!". You know, I think that really goes to far :-(. And if Trump did say something similar today.......by all means.......please go back to your Trump Tower.
***EDIT: Apparently Trump didn't say it as direct as that New Hampshire delegate: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-second-amendment-people-could-do-something-about-clinton-judge-choices/. He only implied it. Still...Mr Trump...keep away from that shit please! ***
and also this:
If he's not done in by that statement, I have no idea what's become of this country.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
He is deranged.
It's a shame he can't be automatically disqualified for saying that.
Oh, yes it does. You'll see for yourself, very soon. :)
"Give me a break," now says Trumpenstein. NO, you evil fraud -- YOU give US, the American people, a break! We're smart enough to get the context of your message, and you clearly stated that THIS is something you suggest the "Second Amendment People" do AFTER Hillary is elected. Your whole wretched campaign has been nothing but one long, sustained series of dog whistles -- do you think we've somehow become inured to the subsonic signals? On the contrary, you loathsome toad, we hear it clearer than ever, and your meaning is all too apparent both to the American public and to the keepers of our national security. Both the US military and the secret service have got their eyes on you now. You have lost this election -- the Republican party is deserting you in droves. Give us a break! Drop out now while the Party you clearly cannot lead still has some semblance of time to chose a new standard-bearer, and save the country you profane every time you say you and only you can make great again from the agony of having to listen to any more of your hollow, self-serving lies!
Sorry, @Superson. A few hours ago you could have gotten away with veiled threats like that & no one would have blinked. In a week or two maybe we'll be a bit more forgiving. Right now we're not so sanguine about these things. Please, oh please, tell us: what exactly do you mean? "You'll see"? See this: Now is the time for all good men to come clean. Be frank or begone.
How so? will she start chanelling the thoughts of her followers? Is that it? If you make a statement, please substantiate with facts.
Presidents Jackson, Lincoln, Garfield. McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon. Ford, Carter, Reagan and G. H. W. Bush. And Bobby Kennedy was killed as he was the Democratic front-runner.
I can not think of a country in modern times with such a record of killing their leaders like this. We say we prefer the ballot to the bullet, but certainly we lose sight of that ideal at times. If we are to be the shining example for other countries to follow--this kind of talk is unacceptable.
Guys, I'm not the type who wants to get in a political argument on a James Bond message board. I even do my best to avoid that stuff in real life. It creates unnecessary tension and it's usually pointless. People have their beliefs, and it's almost impossible to change them.
A few pages back I tried to make my case why I think Hillary is more dangerous for world peace. I'm certainly not a Trump supporter. He's an immoral narcissist and I could never vote for him. That said, I firmly believe Hillary is much worse.
This means that, come November, she will become the president, and in the course of the next four years we'll all be able see whether I was right or wrong.
I'm checking out now. :)