The June 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership: [UPDATE] What kind of BREXIT do YOU want?

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  • Posts: 11,119
    The UK is having a referendum, having a debate, democracy at work ?
    Who could be against, the people having a discussion and then a vote ?

    Then by all means, have a debate...and don't turn every comment I post into a clown's response.
  • Posts: 7,653
    It all sounds very childish, "if you leave our club, we're not going to be nice to you !" . :D
    Makes you wonder, the standard of political thinking running the EU, if that's the
    Standard of schoolgirl bitchiness that passes for considered debate.

    The UK wanted an opt out clause they got it, they have got a series of agreements that none of the other countries in the EU have. And still they want to leave the EU........ Fine go and do not immediately start negotiating again terms to join the common market since you did not want any part of it.
    Especially as the Norway and Switzerland deals give them freedom of using the EU and they pay for it as well but have no say in EU matters at all.

    While I do not want an United states of Europe I do recognise that an united Europe is better chance for peace and prosperity than going back to the nation states that were developed from even more nation states through war and death. I think that the European people are done what that kind of situation.

  • Campbell2Campbell2 Epsilon Rho Rho house, Bending State University
    edited June 2016 Posts: 299
    I think there will be some kind of deal in the end. But it will be far from being better for the UK than what we have now. And that was the whole point of it, the believe we would deserve better without being willing to work for it. One reason so much of EU politics passes us is not because the EU is so insolently ignoring Britain. To the contrary, the important levers for setting any course are where the money is made and where it is headed. The UK however isn't part of Schengen treaty and not of the Euro. From the Euro, just as an aside, we were forced by a single big player at the currency market, not as a result of a conscious decision of our own. Since we're not part of it we had no say in the shaping of its details and to this day we're not in any position to influence much of it. Part of the reason for the EU's erratic running of affairs is to be found in Britain's refusal to commit itself to its natural role at the head of the table. We didn't take responsibility because we didn't think it was necessary, we lived comfortably in our exclusive neither in nor out niche. And now we see it is necessary, it needs our attention and our effort, only now we're halfway out of it already.

    The EU will broker a deal after Brexit, only that will take considerable time. Getting out itself will take two years, talks about Britain's future access to the Common Market between five and seven years. The EU will not punish the UK, we're not at war yet. They will simply give us what we want. And all in its time. Just in case this is still too complicated to grasp for some, the phrase "you deal with us on our terms" sounds terrific but it works both ways, capisce? So when our mandarins and the Brussels Eurocrats finally come down with a paper every single EU country will have to ratify it. That's democracy for you, splendid thing as long as you know how to work the gears of it. I believe, without being anything like an expert, that there is a realistic chance countries like Hungary, Poland or the dreaded Estland will show themselves a good deal less anglophile than we would want them to be. On top of any number of outright crazy nationalist movements that may by that time put the pressure on their governments. Foine work, provided your job was to make matters worse.
  • Posts: 11,119
    SaintMark wrote: »
    It all sounds very childish, "if you leave our club, we're not going to be nice to you !" . :D
    Makes you wonder, the standard of political thinking running the EU, if that's the
    Standard of schoolgirl bitchiness that passes for considered debate.

    The UK wanted an opt out clause they got it, they have got a series of agreements that none of the other countries in the EU have. And still they want to leave the EU........ Fine go and do not immediately start negotiating again terms to join the common market since you did not want any part of it.
    Especially as the Norway and Switzerland deals give them freedom of using the EU and they pay for it as well but have no say in EU matters at all.

    While I do not want an United states of Europe I do recognise that an united Europe is better chance for peace and prosperity than going back to the nation states that were developed from even more nation states through war and death. I think that the European people are done what that kind of situation.

    :) Thank you @SaintMark
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    The UK will not be leaving. Period!
    Too many people would lose too much money, so just like using a countries money
    To bail out privately owned banks, making private debt In to a country's debt, the vote
    Be guaranteed to vote to stay in, it's a foregone conclusion!
    So I'm just joking about it, if I'm wrong I'll look foolish, but we will not be leaving.
  • edited June 2016 Posts: 11,119
    The UK will not be leaving. Period!
    Too many people would lose too much money, so just like using a countries money
    To bail out privately owned banks, making private debt In to a country's debt, the vote
    Be guaranteed to vote to stay in, it's a foregone conclusion!
    So I'm just joking about it, if I'm wrong I'll look foolish, but we will not be leaving.

    I think it's a real possibility. Latest polls are increasingly pointing towards a "Leave" vote. So your prediction might be a bit presumptious:
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  • TheWizardOfIceTheWizardOfIce 'One of the Internet's more toxic individuals'
    Posts: 9,117

    Thanks for bringing in some valid arguments @Campbell2.

    'Valid arguments' because you agree with them?
    Campbell2 wrote: »
    This is quite close to the truth. The problem with the Brexiter's plan to opt out and then gain access through the backdoor is: the remaining 27 states will not give a s**t about making concessions to the UK. There are maybe the German's who have a distant interest in a future with Britain rather than without.

    Well its only the likes of Germany and France that really matter. I cant even be bothered to try and dig up the figures but I seriously doubt the balance of trade with Estonia would even dent the FTSE by half a per cent if it disappeared overnight. Are you seriously suggesting companies like E.ON, EDF, VW, Siemens, BMW, are just going to turn their back on all the money they are making out of the UK overnight just because some suits at the EU tell them they want to teach us a lesson?
    Campbell2 wrote: »
    Not a single Brexiter believes they have to face nasty consequences of their move

    Well heres one Brexiter who does think in the short term certainly things will get worse but dont let any facts get in the way of your sweeping generalisations. And in the long term? Who knows? But lets not be petrified by the unknown because the remain camp are just as wildly flailing in the dark just as the leave campaign are when it comes to having the first clue about the future.
    Campbell2 wrote: »
    they all are fairly sure to profit from it. Which is all most of them care for: how they personally can gain from it. A movement largely made up of profiteers

    Well sorry to shatter your dream of a socialist utopia Mr Corbyn but thats how a capitalist society works. If you'd prefer a society free of 'profiteers' creating jobs and wealth for people I suggest you relocate to North Korea because what you are advocating is communism.

    Brace yourself for a shock here - the vast majority of people are inherently selfish creatures and are only out for themselves. If socialism was such a good idea it would have worked by now but they tried it and it failed so dismally that East Germany had to build a wall to keep their citizens from leaving to the 'profiteering' west.
    Campbell2 wrote: »
    With those the reasoning comes down to 'let's get out while we can, just to spite the others.' Hardly a solid basis for any kind of decision, least of all in politics.

    Yet you and your chum @Gustav are firmly behind the notion advocated in the Dutch article posted above of not doing any trade deals with the UK post Brexit 'just to spite' us. Hardly a solid basis for any kind of decision, least of all in politics.
  • GG Don't believe any polls in the UK, they predicted a hung parliament at the last election & we got a Tory majority.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    First @Gustav_Graves I'm enjoying your posts, always Interesting. =D> now as for polls
    The big poll before the last election over here gave a big win to labour, and look how that
    Eventually turned out.
    Just like a detective story, follow the money, there is money to be made staying in, so
    ( No matter how the vote goes ) we'll be staying in.
  • Posts: 11,119
    GG Don't believe any polls in the UK, they predicted a hung parliament at the last election & we got a Tory majority.

    They predicted the last referendum, about Scotland's independence pretty well though. But yeah, you might be right. Keeping your vote secret is strongly uphold in the UK, more strongly in The Netherlands, where your vote should be a transparent means of dbate and discussion.
  • Posts: 11,119
    First @Gustav_Graves I'm enjoying your posts, always Interesting. =D> now as for polls
    The big poll before the last election over here gave a big win to labour, and look how that
    Eventually turned out.
    Just like a detective story, follow the money, there is money to be made staying in, so
    ( No matter how the vote goes ) we'll be staying in.

    Even then, most polls tend to be fairly accurate. That UK Elections result was an eception.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Not to be argumentative but, more and more polls are becoming less accurate as they
    Still use the phone to contact voters and really only old people still use a landline. They
    Haven't caught on to Facebook, Instagram yet. ;)
  • Has anyone or anyone you know ever been asked by a polling company, I haven't & no one I know has, makes you think, do they just make it up?
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Does being mis-sold PPI count ? :D
  • edited June 2016 Posts: 11,425
    Getafix wrote: »
    there seems to be no good reason to leave really.

    So where is the good reason to stay?

    This seems to be a lot of people's attitude - 'well they haven't really made the case to leave so I'll vote stay.'

    This is the wrong approach IMO. The question you should be asking is 'if we weren't in the EU, would we be clamouring to join it now?'

    We are part of the worlds largest single trading block - the EU. Effectively it's the world's largest single economy. We do most of our trade with that block. Leaving would clearly be an act of sheer insanity, not least because the Brexit camp have made it entirely clear that as soon as we leave, they'd be trying to negotiate us access to the very same single market that we would have just left.

    The problem is, we will never get as good a deal as the one we have now.

    Other countries like Norway that are outside the EU but have access to the single market have to make payments to the EU similar to those made by the UK. They also have to accept freedom of movement of people. This is the price you pay to be part of the world's largest economy, whether or not you are a member of the EU. Therefore, the 'benefits' of leaving that are promised are totally illusory. We will simply be sat outside begging for access and forced to accept rules and regulations over which we have no control.

    As I said before, even on the most cursory assessment, leaving would be utterly bonkers and self defeating.

    The UK's underlying problems - low investment, poor productivity (the French could take off every Friday and would still be more economically productive per head than we are in the UK) - are nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with how we govern our own country.

    Outside the EU we'd face exactly the same issues we do now, only exacerbated because we will now have a worse trade deal with our key trading partners.

    There is nothing stopping us building our trade links with other countries outside the EU as things stand currently. Germany has done a great job of building an export driven economy with global trading partners while being part of the EU.

    Being in the EU is actually an incredibly privileged position - many other countries would love to join too. And we are about to leave due to totally bogus claims that we can reduce immigration and 'get our country back' by leaving. If we leave it will be a monumental error that only ISIL and Putin will welcome.

    This sums up the pointlessness of leaving pretty well:

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21700386-brexiteers-are-deliberately-vague-about-alternatives-european-union-membership
  • Posts: 11,425
    This is an interesting article from The Telegraph (business section):
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
    But I'm afraid such an idea might be in vain. A Norway-style Brexit seems unrealistic. Why?

    Asked whether the UK could be granted a Norwegian or Swiss-style deal, Germany's finance minister told Der Spiegel the UK will not have access to the single market if it votes for Brexit on June 23:
    "That won't work. It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw. If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is completely out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.

    Constructions like those with Norway and Switzerland were made, when those countries saw the negative consequences of a single trade market when they were left out. So they were partially voting 'in'. But the current doctrine within the EU is different. We negotiated to death with the current UK government to change their EU-membership into one that already has a negative impact on the EU, whether it's part of the Remain option in the referendum or not.

    So now Brexit voters want to go partially 'in' again after a real Brexit and opt for a Norway-style trade deal? Again, In is in. Out is completely out. Please respect the consequences of democracy.
    "

    I actually think what the German finance minister said is not true. The EU would have to come to a deal with the UK if it left, because France and Germany have too much to lose by not arriving at a deal - after all, they sell far more to us than we sell to them, so they stand to lose a lot more by cutting the UK off completely.

    Having said this, the EU would also clearly have to ensure that any trade deal they struck with a post-Brexit UK was significantly worse than the one we have now. And you can be pretty certain that the EU will insist that the UK makes hefty financial contributions and allows free movement of people.

    So it will be very similar to now, just worse, and we won't have a say in any of the internal EU decision making processes.
  • You see, from my view point, I believe that if we leave there will be no block negotiation as this will take years given the EU's record on expediency, I think both France & Germany can't wait that long & for the sake of their own economies will bypass the EU & make separate deals. At this point the light bulb may come on regarding the Bureaucracy & inequality within the EU, a system that is so fundamentally flawed it has had it's day, hopefully we will see the whole experiment begin to unravel. Then maybe we can get back to the original idea of a single trading market, not a governing body.

    At the heart of a lot of the EU's problems is the single currency, it only works if all the nations using it are created equal, which they never will be, it's only a matter of time before there's another crisis.
  • Posts: 11,119
    Getafix wrote: »
    This is an interesting article from The Telegraph (business section):
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
    But I'm afraid such an idea might be in vain. A Norway-style Brexit seems unrealistic. Why?

    Asked whether the UK could be granted a Norwegian or Swiss-style deal, Germany's finance minister told Der Spiegel the UK will not have access to the single market if it votes for Brexit on June 23:
    "That won't work. It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw. If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is completely out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.

    Constructions like those with Norway and Switzerland were made, when those countries saw the negative consequences of a single trade market when they were left out. So they were partially voting 'in'. But the current doctrine within the EU is different. We negotiated to death with the current UK government to change their EU-membership into one that already has a negative impact on the EU, whether it's part of the Remain option in the referendum or not.

    So now Brexit voters want to go partially 'in' again after a real Brexit and opt for a Norway-style trade deal? Again, In is in. Out is completely out. Please respect the consequences of democracy.
    "

    I actually think what the German finance minister said is not true. The EU would have to come to a deal with the UK if it left, because France and Germany have too much to lose by not arriving at a deal - after all, they sell far more to us than we sell to them, so they stand to lose a lot more by cutting the UK off completely.

    You really think so? Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris are welcoming the big banks in London, HSBC, Goldman-Sachs, Barclay's and RBS, with open arms.

    Moreover, the UK already, for years, had this kind of elite membership where they were profiting from all the good things that the EU had to offer, and not the bad things (including a huge discount that other EU nations didn't have). That kind of elitist, monopolist approach towards the UK doesn't really benefit free trade.

    Regarding Germany? Germany is an economic powerhouse that is already preparing for a Brexit. And the EU gains more by aggressively protecting the EU and its free trade, by firmly opposing any new trade deal with the UK. It's the doctrine that is now the unwritten law of the European mainland
  • Posts: 11,425
    You see, from my view point, I believe that if we leave there will be no block negotiation as this will take years given the EU's record on expediency, I think both France & Germany can't wait that long & for the sake of their own economies will bypass the EU & make separate deals. At this point the light bulb may come on regarding the Bureaucracy & inequality within the EU, a system that is so fundamentally flawed it has had it's day, hopefully we will see the whole experiment begin to unravel. Then maybe we can get back to the original idea of a single trading market, not a governing body.

    At the heart of a lot of the EU's problems is the single currency, it only works if all the nations using it are created equal, which they never will be, it's only a matter of time before there's another crisis.

    My understanding is that once part of the EU individual states cannot negotiate seperate deals -trade negotiations with non EU countries have to go through the EU. So separate trade deals between the UK and Germany are not possible.


    Getafix wrote: »
    This is an interesting article from The Telegraph (business section):
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
    But I'm afraid such an idea might be in vain. A Norway-style Brexit seems unrealistic. Why?

    Asked whether the UK could be granted a Norwegian or Swiss-style deal, Germany's finance minister told Der Spiegel the UK will not have access to the single market if it votes for Brexit on June 23:
    "That won't work. It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw. If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is completely out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.

    Constructions like those with Norway and Switzerland were made, when those countries saw the negative consequences of a single trade market when they were left out. So they were partially voting 'in'. But the current doctrine within the EU is different. We negotiated to death with the current UK government to change their EU-membership into one that already has a negative impact on the EU, whether it's part of the Remain option in the referendum or not.

    So now Brexit voters want to go partially 'in' again after a real Brexit and opt for a Norway-style trade deal? Again, In is in. Out is completely out. Please respect the consequences of democracy.
    "

    I actually think what the German finance minister said is not true. The EU would have to come to a deal with the UK if it left, because France and Germany have too much to lose by not arriving at a deal - after all, they sell far more to us than we sell to them, so they stand to lose a lot more by cutting the UK off completely.

    You really think so? Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris are welcoming the big banks in London, HSBC, Goldman-Sachs, Barclay's and RBS, with open arms.

    Moreover, the UK already, for years, had this kind of elite membership where they were profiting from all the good things that the EU had to offer, and not the bad things (including a huge discount that other EU nations didn't have). That kind of elitist, monopolist approach towards the UK doesn't really benefit free trade.

    Regarding Germany? Germany is an economic powerhouse that is already preparing for a Brexit. And the EU gains more by aggressively protecting the EU and its free trade, by firmly opposing any new trade deal with the UK. It's the doctrine that is now the unwritten law of the European mainland

    I completely agree that the UK will be given a very tough time in any post-Brexit trade deal. The City of London will be hard hit and Euro trading will move to the Euro zone. The UK will be poorer and worse off economically than it is within the EU - that is pretty much guaranteed.

    However I don't think its in France and Germany's interests to see the UK economy completely destroyed. This would have a significant knock on effect on their economies and the global economy as well. The UK is the world's fifth largest economy and a big market for German and French products - the EU needs a trade deal with the UK almost as much as the UK needs one with the EU.

    But I totally agree that the UK will come out of it worse off - the EU will not let a country that is leaving the club negotiate a better deal after leaving. The repercussions for the UK financial sector could be particualrly dire, as you suggest.
  • Just one tip for everyone, if you have any financial products relating to bonds/stocks I would advise that you cash them & get your money into a safe account as if BREXIT does happen then there will be a world wide impact on the markets maybe at the levels seen in 2008. Looks like smart money is moving into Gold.
  • TheWizardOfIceTheWizardOfIce 'One of the Internet's more toxic individuals'
    edited June 2016 Posts: 9,117
    Just one tip for everyone, if you have any financial products relating to bonds/stocks I would advise that you cash them & get your money into a safe account as if BREXIT does happen then there will be a world wide impact on the markets maybe at the levels seen in 2008. Looks like smart money is moving into Gold.

    Maybe Boris and Farage have a cunning ruse to blow up Fort Knox so the value of the UK's gold goes up, I conservatively estimate 10 times?

    Oh no that's right we haven't got any gold because financial genius Gordon Brown flogged it all off to cover up some holes in his spending. Yet this is one of the clowns saying 'I'm an ex PM so listen to me I know what I'm talking about.'

    Truth is no one can be sure but for every person on the leave side who comes across as a buffoon or charlatan there is someone on the remain side who is equally clueless. The only difference is they have proven their ineptitude in office.
    You see, from my view point, I believe that if we leave there will be no block negotiation as this will take years given the EU's record on expediency, I think both France & Germany can't wait that long & for the sake of their own economies will bypass the EU & make separate deals. At this point the light bulb may come on regarding the Bureaucracy & inequality within the EU, a system that is so fundamentally flawed it has had it's day, hopefully we will see the whole experiment begin to unravel. Then maybe we can get back to the original idea of a single trading market, not a governing body.

    And to try and get back to this is what we want to achieve. Yes it is a risk. But better to go for it than just sit by saying 'let's not rock the boat' like the remainers and just sleepwalk into an EU superstate which would become a quasi Soviet Union just with less passport checks.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    On the subject on stockpiling gold "I welcome any enterprise
    that will increase my stock, which is considerable" ;)
  • As the so called Chinese Curse goes "May you live in interesting times", come the 24th we'll all find out how interesting. ;)
  • Posts: 7,653
    And for all the Brexit voters, you side up with the Sun, because quality newspapers know what hey are on about.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    You're right only the great unwashed, lay about scum read the sun. I've banned my
    Servants from reading it. ;) These people can't figure out the complexities of International
    Affairs, like their betters ! #-o
  • TheWizardOfIceTheWizardOfIce 'One of the Internet's more toxic individuals'
    Posts: 9,117
    On the subject on stockpiling gold "I welcome any enterprise
    that will increase my stock, which is considerable" ;)

    Profiteer! You're just in it for yourself. Think of the children!


  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    :)) I'll bring back some pictures of the canals for them.
  • Posts: 11,119
    :)) I'll bring back some pictures of the canals for them.

    We will close the borders for illegal UK immigrants! So there won't be any canals to visit.
    >:)
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    No problem, there are more miles of canals in Manchester than Venice. ;)
    With more shopping trollies in them too.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384

    Lies told to Norway before rejecting EU membership, .... it all sounds very familiar.
This discussion has been closed.