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The June 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership: [UPDATE] What kind of BREXIT do YOU want?

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Comments

  • patbpatb
    Posts: 4,617
    There is a irony in this that some have missed. One of the reasons that the vote went out and mainstream politicians and financial institutions were ignored was a breakdown in trust between many voters and "the system". And now, in response to that vote, the government have confirmed that, indeed, there are reasons why they cannot be trusted.
  • Campbell2Campbell2 Epsilon Rho Rho house, Bending State University
    Posts: 299
    The Independence campaign was flawed with many a stupid promise made and far too little thought put into actually striking a deal re Trident and currency, I've said this before. You could have linked a 50 year lease on the Trident sites and a percentage of the oil to the use of the pound for a given time of ten to 15 years and you'd have had that sorted, only Colin didn't think it was necessary to properly address it. Rightfully the campaign failed. Now Scotland will have to be better prepared and willing to work hard on a sound concept. Won't be a walk in the park, I won't lie about that. But I trust Nicola more than I do any of the current London bunch. And I'm fairly sure you guys won't have it any easier.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited June 2016 Posts: 23,883
    patb wrote: »
    There is a irony in this that some have missed. One of the reasons that the vote went out and mainstream politicians and financial institutions were ignored was a breakdown in trust between many voters and "the system". And now, in response to that vote, the government have confirmed that, indeed, there are reasons why they cannot be trusted.
    Precisely. This is only reinforcing the perception that elected officials were in the pockets of the moneyed interests all along. They appear, at least for the time being, to be clueless now that the people have spoken and their benefactors and promises of never ending GDP growth have been ignored. Not a good message to be sending.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Yes, it seems the doom and gloom figures they put out were, "make believe". As
    Now they're putting out the true futures and Britain is actually in a very healthy
    State.
    In fact several reports have pointed out that the markets and money men are worried
    About the strength of the Euro, when Britain leaves.
  • JeffreyJeffrey The Netherlands
    Posts: 308
    "No need to panic", says ex-Bank of England chief King:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36641046
  • Campbell2Campbell2 Epsilon Rho Rho house, Bending State University
    Posts: 299
    Thunderpussy wrote: »
    Yes, it seems the doom and gloom figures they put out were, "make believe". As
    Now they're putting out the true futures and Britain is actually in a very healthy
    State.
    In fact several reports have pointed out that the markets and money men are worried
    About the strength of the Euro, when Britain leaves.



    Sorry, Pussy, that's rubbish. We all can see where pound is headed:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36636853
    UK financial markets remain volatile in the wake of the Brexit vote, with sterling plunging to a 31-year low against the dollar, and some share trading temporarily halted.
    Yields on 10-year government bonds sank below 1% for the first time.
    Shares in airlines, housebuilders and banks were worst hit, with sharp falls causing a momentary halt in trading as automatic circuit breakers kicked in.
    The falls came after Chancellor George Osborne tried to calm the markets.
    In a statement before the markets opened, his first since the referendum result, the chancellor said the UK was ready to face the future "from a position of strength".

    Talk in the City is they had to push hard to keep it from falling further and a lot of short sellers have it in their sights. This will only stop once they find some guy to head over to Brussels and start talks fast.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited June 2016 Posts: 15,723
    Any financial expert/journalist commenting on the future of the UK's economy after Brexit are disqualified right away.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    Financial markets always overshoot. There are positions to unwind and banks to save let's not forget.

    Things will stabilize at a lower sterling trade weighted level, which will benefit exporters, but not consumers (not necessarily a bad thing). There will be an inflation impact, and interest rates will have to go up (eventually but not for some time yet).

    Residential real estate will hold and may in fact increase because it will become cheaper to foreigners. Commercial real estate is a different matter.
  • Campbell2Campbell2 Epsilon Rho Rho house, Bending State University
    Posts: 299
    For the time being there won't come any foreigners. First they have to clear up the plate before peeps are going to come. Who's to say when they'll have to go again? No, first of all they have to formulate a proper roadmap for the future.
  • patbpatb
    Posts: 4,617
    DC " The decision must be accepted", thank goodness
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    This will be the Y2K bug all over again, give it a year or two and all you
    Gloomy Glenda's will wonder what, you were getting your knickers all
    Bunched up over.
    Some people grasp the future, others sit in the corner, telling the rest of
    Us why it won't work. :))
  • patbpatb
    Posts: 4,617
    Some people will be buying the pound and making a killing, if I had some spare cash, it is tempting
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    The financial impact is similar to when Soros single handedly took sterling out of the ERM. It will stabilize.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 8,334
    Well the LibDems have found a new way of sailing around a second referendum: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-result-lib-dems-remain-liberal-democrats-live-policy-stay-leave-a7103186.html
  • GetafixGetafix
    edited June 2016 Posts: 11,425
    Don't count on it.

    Leaving the ERM was not comparable to Brexit.

    As a result of Brexit the UK corporate pension deficit has widened by £80 billion overnight - that's 10 times the UK's annual EU budget contribution. Good luck any one with a private sector pension...

    The challenges ahead are much more serious this time. Expect a recession and job losses. ERM departure actually gave the UK economy a boost - that's not going to happen this time.

    Most people are saying the collapse in the FTSE 250 represents a stockmarket crash.

    Just the start of things to come.

  • SpectreNumberTwoSpectreNumberTwo
    Posts: 389
    Some are going to make a bloody killing out of this, you wonder if the massive hedge funds aren't manipulating the market again.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,723
    Getafix wrote: »
    Most people are saying the collapse in the FTSE 250 represents a stockmarket crash.

    Just the start of things to come.

    The same people who said the economy never looked better, hardly a week before the 2008 crash happened? Why do they suddenly know a thing that might happen on the market?

  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    Indeed, there are many who are profiting as we speak. I'm attempting to do the same, shamelessly. This is not the end of the world, just the start of some necessary and much needed adjustments.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Recessions only affect the poor, never the rich :D
  • patbpatb
    Posts: 4,617
    Im up £1000 if May gets the leadership :-)
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Won't James May be too busy with his car show to be PM ? ;)
  • SpectreNumberTwoSpectreNumberTwo
    Posts: 389
    CommanderRoss wrote: »
    Well the LibDems have found a new way of sailing around a second referendum: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-result-lib-dems-remain-liberal-democrats-live-policy-stay-leave-a7103186.html

    Well that ensures they will disappear into the night when they have not one seat in the house. If you look at the likely lib/dem seats they almost all voted by a majority to leave.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    There are not enough LibDem MPs to fill a minibus. :))
  • SpectreNumberTwoSpectreNumberTwo
    Posts: 389
    I was thinking more of a large people carrier, with cleggy stepping down at next election...... ;)
  • SpectreNumberTwoSpectreNumberTwo
    edited June 2016 Posts: 389
    Getafix wrote: »
    Most people are saying the collapse in the FTSE 250 represents a stockmarket crash.

    Firstly in 2008 when the last financial f**k up happened the FTSE250 was worth 9,000 points approx the month before the crash, if you'd invested then & sold today you would still have made 6,000 points on your money, however had you invest after the crash you'd have almost tripled your money selling last Friday.

    Shall I give you a simplified insight into how the markets work which by the way are nothing more than numbers on a computer screen in reallity, because they have no true value other than perception, the large hedge fund managers & inverstment bankers have sold their positions in strategic stocks, probably put it in gold looking at the price increase, they have let this big event have the effect they predicted, ie self fulfilling prophecy, meanwhile the pension fund managers who are usually a bit slow off the mark & believe the whole system is pukka, see it's all going to hell in a hand cart as predicted, panic ensues & the great sell off starts thus getting a sh*tty deal for their companies fund & forcing the price lower, the fund managers & investment bankers then step back in as they won't let the market collaspe completely, not in their best interests, they'll then decide what the bottom line is & start buying again, hay presto when the stocks come back up again they'll sell & make a bloody fortune, but the pension funds you, I & many other's have given our money too will be worth a lot less.

    'It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another' - Gordon Gekko
  • Campbell2Campbell2 Epsilon Rho Rho house, Bending State University
    Posts: 299
    I doubt they let sterling fall much beyond $1.30. But I wouldn't risk it, today's fall started after Osborne went on air.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    He took a risk coming out in daylight.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Getafix wrote: »
    Don't count on it.

    Leaving the ERM was not comparable to Brexit.

    As a result of Brexit the UK corporate pension deficit has widened by £80 billion overnight - that's 10 times the UK's annual EU budget contribution. Good luck any one with a private sector pension...

    The challenges ahead are much more serious this time. Expect a recession and job losses. ERM departure actually gave the UK economy a boost - that's not going to happen this time.

    Most people are saying the collapse in the FTSE 250 represents a stockmarket crash.

    Just the start of things to come.

    Give me a hug @Getafix. A tight one :-* .

    But no kidding, I actually agree with you. Here in The Netherlands pensions are becoming much harder to finance, due to the fact that pension funds are directly related to the stock markets.

    What you are saying about British pensions is indeed a very worrisome development.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Well, we have another 'Brexit' today: England looses 2-1 from...eh.....Iceland :-P.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Yes sad for England but congratulations to Iceland, they played like Lions. =D>
This discussion has been closed.