The BREXIT Discussion Thread.

1161719212245

Comments

  • edited January 2019 Posts: 19,339
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,718
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.

    Every passing day it seems the likeliest to happen will be a No Deal Brexit.
  • Posts: 19,339
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.

    Every passing day it seems the likeliest to happen will be a No Deal Brexit.

    That's what i'm thinking as well.
  • barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.

    Every passing day it seems the likeliest to happen will be a No Deal Brexit.

    That's what i'm thinking as well.

    Isn't the consensus that Theresa May's cabinet won't allow that to happen. It's almost certain Parliament will do everything in it's power to stop that occurring.

    Wouldn't the inevitable result be Parliament deciding to revoke Article 50 due to the impasse. No Brexit.
  • Posts: 19,339
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.

    Every passing day it seems the likeliest to happen will be a No Deal Brexit.

    That's what i'm thinking as well.

    Isn't the consensus that Theresa May's cabinet won't allow that to happen. It's almost certain Parliament will do everything in it's power to stop that occurring.

    Wouldn't the inevitable result be Parliament deciding to revoke Article 50 due to the impasse. No Brexit.

    But then they would have directly over-ruled the people of the UK after a referendum,the whole government would have to resign before it collapsed due to 'no confidence',not just from fellow MP's but the nation itself.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,718
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    barryt007 wrote: »
    And the EU categorically stated that no further extension would be granted,if applied for.

    I believe France and Germany said they are 'open' to consider it, but that still leaves another 25 member states to convince, and all within 71 days.

    Indeed DC...that's not going to happen.

    Every passing day it seems the likeliest to happen will be a No Deal Brexit.

    That's what i'm thinking as well.

    Isn't the consensus that Theresa May's cabinet won't allow that to happen. It's almost certain Parliament will do everything in it's power to stop that occurring.

    Wouldn't the inevitable result be Parliament deciding to revoke Article 50 due to the impasse. No Brexit.

    Theresa May's cabinet is also refusing to revoke Article 50, so what can they do? She can't be voted out by her own Party, the opposition doesn't have a majority big enough to remove her from office. Unless she resigns, No Deal Brexit is getting very likely.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    It's likely to be a hard Brexit. I sort of had that feeling from the outset. There are too many issues on the table and too many conflicting views to get proper resolution on the matter. The longer this drags the more harm is done to the economy and the nation's place in the world. Time to close it out.
  • Posts: 4,617
    It's a remarkable and sad situation. I dread to think what this looks like from outside of the UK. Complete and utter shambles.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    bondjames wrote: »
    It's likely to be a hard Brexit. I sort of had that feeling from the outset. There are too many issues on the table and too many conflicting views to get proper resolution on the matter. The longer this drags the more harm is done to the economy and the nation's place in the world. Time to close it out.

    Plus there's the EU. No deal is the worst of all resolutions, but the clock is ticking dramatically.
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Time to put on the yellow vests soon?
  • Posts: 11,425
    The British people were lied to by the Leave campaign. Simple.

    I think we will leave and that it will be some cruddy compromise based on May's deal. It will suck. No one will be happy. We will be one foot in, one foot out of the EU.

    Europe will continue to dominate political debate for years to come (hardly surprising since the UK is a key European player).

    May be in a few years the momentum will build to rejoin.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.
  • edited January 2019 Posts: 4,617
    Where as the remainers always told the truth ? It's just another over simplification to brand the Leave campaign as liers and remain campaign as honest.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/10/david-cameron-stay-as-pm-if-i-lose-eu-referendum
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    I think the main reason why the EU is making this so difficult for the UK, is to deter other potential leavers in the union.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited January 2019 Posts: 15,718
    Getafix wrote: »
    The British people were lied to by the Leave campaign. Simple.

    I think we will leave and that it will be some cruddy compromise based on May's deal. It will suck. No one will be happy. We will be one foot in, one foot out of the EU.

    Europe will continue to dominate political debate for years to come (hardly surprising since the UK is a key European player).

    May be in a few years the momentum will build to rejoin.

    Highly doubt it. Since you would now be rejoining the UE post-2002, it means the UK cannot rejoin without implementing the Euro currency.

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    I think the main reason why the EU is making this so difficult for the UK, is to deter other potential leavers in the union.

    Possibile. In Italy for example there was a lot of talk about leaving the Euro during the last presidential campaign who saw a massive debacle of all the pro EU parties.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    The problem is primarily from within the UK. The EU's response is predictable and should have been expected. They have been as accommodating as I expected them to be.
  • MajorDSmytheMajorDSmythe "I tolerate this century, but I don't enjoy it."Moderator
    edited January 2019 Posts: 13,978
    A 2nd peoples vote? Whoa, wait a second, if we are having a 2nd, then can we also have a 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th..... peoples votes? Why stop, lets have a new vote every 3 years. We'll call it the EU Triennial Hokey Cokey. We'll be "in, out, in, out, shakin' it all about" until the end of time.
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    edited January 2019 Posts: 9,041
    A 2nd peoples vote? Whoa, wait a second, if we are having a 2nd, then can we also have a 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th..... peoples votes? Why stop, lets have a new vote every 3 years. We'll call it the EU Triennial Hokey Cokey. We'll be "in, out, in, out, shakin' it all about" until the end of time.

    Quite frankly, I can see why people object to letting everyone vote until the results show the desired outcome. But in this case, it should be remembered that 41 years earlier a two-thirds majority voted to join. Why not leave that untouched as well? Or what should be the minimum period of grace for asking again? There has been this joke about George W. Bush during his tenure: He says the same thing on Wednesday that he said on Monday, no matter what happened on Tuesday. Isn't something extraordinary happening on Tuesday enough reason to re-think your position, starting Wednesday? Including the realisation that the promises made by one faction were obvious lies pandering to the feeble-minded racists and egomaniacs, and nothing more?

    But then, here we have the general problem with referenda (or is it referendums?). The general constituency are far more easily deluded than an elected body. And that is why parliament should never be allowed to surrender its powers - and obligation - of coming to a decision based on research and facts, instead of listening to an ad-hoc narrow referendum majority. And an issue that amounts to a decision of major constitutional proportions should never be decided by a simple majority, but should require at least a two-thirds or 75-percent majority - or it might be reversed the next week. Especially if the original decision to join was in fact supported by 67 per cent, which should at least be overridden by the same margin.

    But enjoy the revival of your Empire and Splendid Isolation (especially of the Continent when there's fog on the Channel).

  • edited January 2019 Posts: 11,425
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    There are lots of leavers in the UK who would like to think this is true but the fact is if the EU didn't already exist then Europe would be working to make it happen.

    The peace and prosperity the EU (and NATO) has brought to Europe is unparalleled. People forget that before the EU was created Europe (which includes the UK) had never seen such a prolonged period without war.

    Yes the EU may change, as it has done since the start, but the idea it's going to disappear is wishful thinking by it's enemies.

    Milton Friedman gave the Euro 10 years before it collapsed but it's still there 30 years later and is more popular amongst the European population than it's ever been.

    We get fed a constant diet of euroscepticism in the UK which distorts perceptions. There has also always been a strong tradition, particularly on the political right in the US, that wanted to see the EU fail, as it is perceived as a barrier to US economic hegemony on the continent. But the EU is still there, fortunately.

  • Major_BoothroydMajor_Boothroyd Republic of Isthmus
    edited January 2019 Posts: 2,722
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    10 years? That seems awfully quick. A lot would have to happen for the dissolution of the EU in that time.

    If anything I suspect the Brexit omni-shambles is the best advertisement for more fragile economies than the UK to remain in the EU. At the very least it will slow the dissolution down because it will make governments devise a slightly clearer plan than just asking:

    'Do you want to be in Europe?'
    'No - but how will that work?'
    'Oh we'll figure that out later'
    'Oh okay'.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited January 2019 Posts: 23,883
    Getafix wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    There are lots of leavers in the UK who would like to think this is true but the fact is if the EU didn't already exist then Europe would be working to make it happen.

    The peace and prosperity the EU (and NATO) has brought to Europe is unparalleled. People forget that before the EU was created Europe (which includes the UK) had never seen such a prolonged period without war.

    Yes the EU may change, as it has done since the start, but the idea it's going to disappear is wishful thinking by it's enemies.

    Milton Friedman gave the Euro 10 years before it collapsed but it's still there 30 years later and is more popular amongst the European population than it's ever been.

    We get fed a constant diet of euroscepticism in the UK which distorts perceptions. There has also always been a strong tradition, particularly on the political right in the US, that wanted to see the EU fail, as it is perceived as a barrier to US economic hegemony on the continent. But the EU is still there, fortunately.
    The EU is a political and cultural construct. The reasons for its creation are well known. The single currency has several economic benefits as well.

    This has nothing to do with what I want, and it would be inappropriate to draw any conclusions or inferences about my level of enthusiasm for the EU based on my comment above. I am certainly not swayed by political ramblings on either side. I've never been politically inclined in any one direction. This has to do with what I observe about the model as it currently stands, and the stresses that it will inevitably face in the future.

    We are in a period of rapid economic flux and changing paradigms caused by massive wealth inequality and shifting political loyalties on account of realignments (these alignments were set first on account of Western colonialism, then post WW2 structures, then Soviet collapse, then then 911, then the rise of Asia and finally the financial crisis). These shifts are only going to accelerate on account of the massive debt that has been accumulated over the past decade (yes, since the financial crisis) and due to the policy responses that were employed to respond to that crisis. In addition, market volatility is accelerating as the US Federal Reserve Bank normalizes global rates. This increases the potential for another financial crisis. I'm not sure what the trigger will be this time, but there are many possible ones, including a currency run somewhere.

    In such an environment, and without the UK as a distraction, the stresses on the EU will only continue to mount despite attempts by those in power to quell it (by force, if necessary). I have always argued that a common fiscal policy was a prerequisite of this model surviving and thriving. A common currency and monetary policy alone were never going to be enough. Unfortunately, that was never instituted because it would have required further loss of sovereignty and societal buy-in which was politically unsellable.
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    10 years? That seems awfully quick. A lot would have to happen for the dissolution of the EU in that time.

    If anything I suspect the Brexit omni-shambles is the best advertisement for more fragile economies than the UK to remain in the EU. At the very least it will slow the dissolution down because it will make governments devise a slightly clearer plan than just asking:

    'Do you want to be in Europe?'
    'No - but how will that work?'
    'Oh we'll figure that out later'
    'Oh okay'.
    I'm not sure if it will necessarily dissolve in 10 years, but it wouldn't surprise me if another large economy chooses to exit within that time frame or it is restructured on account of economic pressures. That's my point about it existing in its present form.

    The UK's problems really are self inflicted. Democracy can certainly be a difficult thing, but it's ultimately cathartic. They'll get through it, but it won't be easy in the near term. This is a necessary moment of introspection and contemplation for the UK. Once they are out they will have an opportunity to honestly shape their linkages and involvement within the changing global landscape in a more modern way.
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    Posts: 9,041
    Getafix wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    Milton Friedman gave the Euro 10 years before it collapsed but it's still there 30 years later and is more popular amongst the European population than it's ever been.
    I'm fully with you on the issues, but the Euro "only" really came into being 17 years ago, on 1/1/2002, when the national currencies of the participating member states were replaced by it (remark: It had been an accounting unit for the three preceding years, but without cash and no real effects for normal citizens). And while I still think that for my own personal taste and wish for an even more unified Europe it is a great idea not having to exchange currencies at the border, I'm not so sure about the Euro's popularity amongst the population. But that doesn't really have anything to do with Brexit, since nobody has been forced to adopt the Euro. Denmark, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Rep, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia don't have it either.
  • Posts: 5,994
    This afternoon, I'll go to my town hall to see if :

    a) I'll need a passport to travel to the UK this year, and b) to start the process of getting one if necessary. After all, in may, I'll go to Cardiff to see Katherine Jenkins sing, and I don't want to be stopped at the border (that is, at the Gare du Nord station in paris) for not having the necessary documentation.
  • DragonpolDragonpol https://thebondologistblog.blogspot.com
    edited January 2019 Posts: 18,281
    Boris Johnson intervenes today in a speech on his Brexit plans:

  • ShardlakeShardlake Leeds, West Yorkshire, England
    edited January 2019 Posts: 4,043
    One of the prats who put us in this situation, yes lets listen to Bo Jo, absolute joke!

    If you think he's looking after yours and my best interest well..........
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    Posts: 9,041
    Why do the biggest populist egomaniac morons so often have funny-looking blonde-blending-into-orange hair?
  • edited January 2019 Posts: 11,425
    bondjames wrote: »
    Getafix wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    There are lots of leavers in the UK who would like to think this is true but the fact is if the EU didn't already exist then Europe would be working to make it happen.

    The peace and prosperity the EU (and NATO) has brought to Europe is unparalleled. People forget that before the EU was created Europe (which includes the UK) had never seen such a prolonged period without war.

    Yes the EU may change, as it has done since the start, but the idea it's going to disappear is wishful thinking by it's enemies.

    Milton Friedman gave the Euro 10 years before it collapsed but it's still there 30 years later and is more popular amongst the European population than it's ever been.

    We get fed a constant diet of euroscepticism in the UK which distorts perceptions. There has also always been a strong tradition, particularly on the political right in the US, that wanted to see the EU fail, as it is perceived as a barrier to US economic hegemony on the continent. But the EU is still there, fortunately.
    The EU is a political and cultural construct. The reasons for its creation are well known. The single currency has several economic benefits as well.

    This has nothing to do with what I want, and it would be inappropriate to draw any conclusions or inferences about my level of enthusiasm for the EU based on my comment above. I am certainly not swayed by political ramblings on either side. I've never been politically inclined in any one direction. This has to do with what I observe about the model as it currently stands, and the stresses that it will inevitably face in the future.

    We are in a period of rapid economic flux and changing paradigms caused by massive wealth inequality and shifting political loyalties on account of realignments (these alignments were set first on account of Western colonialism, then post WW2 structures, then Soviet collapse, then then 911, then the rise of Asia and finally the financial crisis). These shifts are only going to accelerate on account of the massive debt that has been accumulated over the past decade (yes, since the financial crisis) and due to the policy responses that were employed to respond to that crisis. In addition, market volatility is accelerating as the US Federal Reserve Bank normalizes global rates. This increases the potential for another financial crisis. I'm not sure what the trigger will be this time, but there are many possible ones, including a currency run somewhere.

    In such an environment, and without the UK as a distraction, the stresses on the EU will only continue to mount despite attempts by those in power to quell it (by force, if necessary). I have always argued that a common fiscal policy was a prerequisite of this model surviving and thriving. A common currency and monetary policy alone were never going to be enough. Unfortunately, that was never instituted because it would have required further loss of sovereignty and societal buy-in which was politically unsellable.
    bondjames wrote: »
    At the risk of causing offence to some, I don't see the EU (in its present form at least) existing in a decade.

    10 years? That seems awfully quick. A lot would have to happen for the dissolution of the EU in that time.

    If anything I suspect the Brexit omni-shambles is the best advertisement for more fragile economies than the UK to remain in the EU. At the very least it will slow the dissolution down because it will make governments devise a slightly clearer plan than just asking:

    'Do you want to be in Europe?'
    'No - but how will that work?'
    'Oh we'll figure that out later'
    'Oh okay'.
    I'm not sure if it will necessarily dissolve in 10 years, but it wouldn't surprise me if another large economy chooses to exit within that time frame or it is restructured on account of economic pressures. That's my point about it existing in its present form.

    The UK's problems really are self inflicted. Democracy can certainly be a difficult thing, but it's ultimately cathartic. They'll get through it, but it won't be easy in the near term. This is a necessary moment of introspection and contemplation for the UK. Once they are out they will have an opportunity to honestly shape their linkages and involvement within the changing global landscape in a more modern way.

    Fair comment.

    All I am saying I suppose is all bets are off. Yes the EU could collapse but equally I wouldn't be surprised if it was still there in 100 years.

    How many people have the US a chance in its early years? I'm sure there were many predicting it's failure and pointing to it's inherent structural weaknesses. But look how that turned out.

    There are always people willing these big projects to fail and sometimes they do. But when there are overwhelmingly positive reasons for something to exist they tend to survive regardless. I suspect the EU is one of those things.

    Ultimately though nothing lasts for ever. everything comes to an end.
  • DragonpolDragonpol https://thebondologistblog.blogspot.com
    edited January 2019 Posts: 18,281
    Shardlake wrote: »
    One of the prats who put us in this situation, yes lets listen to Bo Jo, absolute joke!

    If you think he's looking after yours and my best interest well..........

    I merely add it to the debate for consideration, as May's Withdrawal deal has failed spectacularly in Parliament. At least Mr Johnson had the guts to come out in favour of Brexit unlike Mrs May. May was a Remainer who then went on to benefit from the vacancy caused by the resignation of David Cameron as prime minister and present herself as the "Saviour of Brexit."
  • Posts: 7,653
    She unlike most politicians has tried to follow the popular vote coming out of the referendum and she is willing to step back after the dust is settled, taking one for her party as main responsible person. This Brexit mess will know no winners and she is willing to lead.
    She might be a remainer but she is more faithful than most leavers to the outcome of the referendum.
This discussion has been closed.