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I think MGM/Universal are in a tight spot...They probably felt that moving NTTD to Thanksgivings bought them a lot of time. However, considering how argressive the pandemic has been, it was actually a rather optimistic date!
These latest release date changes from Warner only go to show that this conversation is far from over. I think the ripple effect will lead to film festivals being cancelled and eventually the Oscars will get delayed. Which means the eligibility criteria will be moved. Perhaps to the end of January or February 2021.
I'm thinking Eon will want to move. NTTD probably to Q1 in 2021. So that means we get the film within the first 3 months. After all, it makes little sense to release the film in a period where it would make less money opposed to delaying to another period where you could be more successful. Sadly, it's looking increasingly unlikely that tentpole films will have the theatre capacity they require to actually make money this year. Sadly, this includes NTTD.
It's been a little over 3 months since the delay. We only have 5 months left till release and 4 months till marketing has to ramp up...I think at this stage we need to look towards 2021.
Never Say Never though. ;)
Once both of these goes, I have no idea what will happen next. This would make Wonder Woman 1984 the first big-budget film to release post-reopening. And that films is still 4 months away (October 2nd). And, more importantly, it opens just under 1.5 months before NTTD.
Not forgetting that by then, most cinema chains will be on the verge of collapse. So If NTTD does get delayed again, as well as nearly every major 2020 films, the question of should NTTD be released straight to VOD/streaming/Netflix will become a very real issue of discussion. Hopefully we won't reach that point. Only time will tell.
Very good post.
Found this on Twitter suggesting NTTD is possibly moving to Godzilla v Kong's abandoned date according to IMDB
I agree with everything you're saying, but I don't think Tenet will bail on theatres and sit it out till next summer. I think this new announcement basically confirms that Nolan is sticking with the theatres during the pandemic and won't run off to a slot where he'd make more green. If that means bumping Tenet a few weeks every now and again, then that'll happen.
Nolan may not get to be the 'first' big tentpole film. But it's the director's every intention to be as close to the re-opening as possible.
Also, I dispute your point @DaltonCraig007 - In actual fact, there are a number of films opening prior to WW84 in October. They are:
They aren't going to be 'big' films as WW84 (aside perhaps A Quiet Place Part II). But they will definitely give theatres some hope in the wake of Tenet/Mulan and prior to WW84.
I suppose all eyes are on the first week of July now to see how things look, there will likely be more delays as we get a clearer idea on what the reopening looks like.....in the meanwhile since we are talking about Wonder Woman, here are some pictures of Gal Gadot to help us through this difficult time.
I meant WW84 would be the first big-budget film to release, not the first film to open at all. At $175 million, WW84 has a bigger budget than Antebellum, Bill & Ted 3, Candyman, A Quiet Place 2 and The King's Man combined.
I think a big part of Eon's decision-making throughout this process has been doing right by their talent when it comes to Oscar season. Considering the current pandemic and the very cluttered November, I think Eon will jump ship into 2021 very quickly.....I anticipate something mid January (Bad Boys 3) or mid February (Black Panther's date).
I think 2021 is looking more and more like an inevitability and this Oscar news may cement Eon to move......I think the financial benefits in fact are more positive. They can avoid Pixar and Marvel.
Marvel already had The Eternals releasing on February 12, 2021.
Also i still think NTTD will release in November.They cant sit on this film forever and if Tenet ( which has only delayed by two weeks ) and WW84 releases in October as now planned then i see them releasing Bond in Nov.
Have you been living in a cave the last few months? Social Distancing.
I wouldn't be so sure. These are unprecedented times.
Rules of engagement are that where the 6'/2m social distance can't be ensured, a mask should be worn. Are movie theaters exempt from that remedy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/business/media/tenet-release-delayed.html
Beijing is battling 'explosive coronavirus outbreak' as food market cases mount.
The chief epidemiologist with the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention told yesterday that the situation was very serious.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2020/06/672_291272.html
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Beijing clustered infections are at high risk of spreading.
The clustered infection that was closely linked with Xinfadi Market, which is densely populated and highly mobile, has a very high risk of spreading.
As of press time, Beijing has reported 79 cases connected to Xinfadi Market. Beijing's latest outbreak has extended to three provinces.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191598.shtml
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After 1 month since Japan's movie theaters have reopened, Japan's weekly box office is down to 5% ($790,000) of the usual gross from the same time period in 2019 ($14 million).
Japan is one of the most successful countries in handling the Covid-19 pandemic (17,502 cases & 925 deaths).
https://qz.com/1868938/japans-slow-box-office-recovery-may-be-a-harbinger-for-hollywood
Living in a cave would be social distancing, wouldn t it?
I have a feeling that the Marvel slate will remain in flux.
They have Shang-Chi pencilled in for May 2021, but they had been filming for around two weeks on that film before the lockdown. The chances are that they won't start filming till at least August/September. There's no way with the heavy social distancing rules that they can mount such an epic production and then carry out the post-production required in such a short space of time.
I think the chances are that Marvel will move Shang-Chi and be forced to reschedule Eternals to May 2021. Marvel films usually do very well with that 'start of summer' date.
The WW84 date really encapsulates the issues here for me...they moved from June to August in the hope things would be better. However, all they did was kick the can down the road a little. Essentially putting themselves in a position where they wouldn't need to think about delaying again for a few months. However, all we doing is witnessing a car crash in slow motion. Decisions are being made slowly but feel inevitable.
@DaltonCraig007 - Plus, the Oxford vaccine is looking very positive and rollout is due in September/October. It makes sense to push Bond again to February 12 2021
It's only around 2 months a delay from the Thanksgiving date, which in these pandemic times isn't a huge amount of time. Plus, Bond on Valentine's Day feels like a comfortable fit and a big sell
If Tenet/Mulan etc come out and drastically underperform due to the massive restrictions placed on attendance, you can expect every big movie on the calendar for this year (except maybe the ones in December) to be pushed back to 2021.
At this stage not only are Tenet/Mulan destined to fail, but 2020 is looking more like a 'write off.' Check out this graph from the FT that I saw @antovolk post which compares attendance in cinemas in 2019 to 2020 (including projected totals):
As you can see, the attendance levels are anticipated to be much lower over the next few months.
In the current climate, if a film is capable of making $300-400m it will be considered a 'success.' However, even the economics of blockbuster filmmaking such a number is painfully low. If Tenet posts such numbers, it be a flop in line with the Han Solo movie!
The circumstances with the Solo film were different (lack of interest and poor marketing). But if anything things are much worse now as people won't return during a pandemic and cinemas can't operate near to full capacity till a vaccine. There is simply a glass ceiling that I think will prohibit any franchise film with a budget north of £100m from being considered an actual success.
I think the litmus test will be Mulan and Tenet. Once they post weak opening weekends, then the exodus into 2021 begins. So I don't anticipate much news for the next 6 weeks or so.....but early August will be interesting!
I still think Bond will move to February 2021...
It is also very possible that Tenet itself will be delayed to a post-summer 2020 date. I know Nolan is very keen on having his film be the savior of this summer, but once it becomes clear that box office revenue will be extremely limited, he and Warner Bros will have no choice but to delay the film. After all, this is a 200+ million dollar budget film, their confidence will take a hit once July 31st gets closer and the cinema/pandemic situation still seems serious.
If a delay becomes inevitable for Tenet, I think it will be confirmed on the wee of July 13th/17th (2 weeks before opening). Current estimate say they cinemas will need 2 weeks to ramp up box office intake enough to warrant the release of a big budget film. So if the box office is still down by that week, Tenet will be delayed. A Mulan delay should come by late June, I think.
Why would they want to sacrifice all that money?
As @AViewToAKill stated, the screenings of “Inception” are probably designed to test the waters before TENET's release. Don’t forget, that the movie chains and their personnel will also need time to “come back up to speed” and practice any new safety protocols that may be in place. In fact, in some cases, chains like Regal and AMC may actually have to re-hire some of their old staff (or trained new employees) prior to opening. All of that takes time.
Given the uncertainties, I could easily see a couple of “older” movies being re-released to theaters as a kind of “dry run” before the arrival of the heavy hitters.