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It seems Disney are set to push The New Mutants and Mulan to September, and Death on the Nile back one month to November. Disney's Brazilian division have already confirmed the delays for these 3 films. If the confirmation that all worldwide release dates are affected, Disney should be announcing it tomorrow.
The studios tend to wait for close-of-play on Friday in Los Angeles time to announce delays. It's the perfect time to drop bad news and then do a runner. It's a long-running theme I've noticed..........
I think the Deadline article mentioned that studios were waiting to see what Gavin Newsom are going to say yesterday. Now they have word on what happened, I think they are trying to figure out 'what happens next?' I assume all conversations this week have been focused on when they can re-open.
I've been weighing up the pros/cons of the situation.
Pros:
Cons:
For these reasons, I think NTTD should go to 2021....I'd be interested to know what @antovolk thinks as he follows these things closer and knows heaps.
But Bond in 2021 sounds right to me. I guess it'll come before February to qualify for the Oscars that year. However, that could move or get cancelled entirely.
I think the vaccine is the only way out. Especially as the domestic box office is pivotal to franchise films. Rememeber, early tracking had NTTD opening to $70-100m.
Some developments:
Ah, thanks for that - asked on the other thread if there was a source.
It seems it's just a Brazil specific case, Tenet is currently set for August 27 there. Cinemas there are on the slower side of reopening due to how bad the situation is with COVID.
Yes, every movie award show has been pushed back two months, because they pushed the Oscar entry date for movies from Dec 31st to Feb 28th.
There was so much uncertainty and so many complications in the production that there's almost a karmic quality to all of this, but oh well.
I am absolutely convinced that a full capacity cinema is not in the cards for 2020 and it's a very vague reality for the first half of 2021. I'm also convinced that they would recoup their money between VOD and a later cinema release. The problem is, they want that 1billion+ so bad, that they'd rather take the blow of constant rescheduling.
Because in one german state (Northrhine Wesfalia) some theatres are already operating in full capacity already.
Didn't know that. I suppose I was referring primarily to the States. Regardless, it won't do theaters any good in Europe if the film isn't released worldwide.
Halloween Kills delayed to October 2021.
The Forever Purge delayed to July 2021.
Candyman delayed to October 2020.
https://www.thewrap.com/universal-shifts-blumhouses-halloween-sequel-and-the-forever-purge-to-2021/
Yikes, I wonder if NTTD will be in the next round ?
Putting it in November was a great decision at the time it was made, when we had more time to be able to combat this pandemic. But now the last four months have been a complete waste of effort due to the US prematurely wanting to get the economy back up and now it'll be even HARDER than it was in March to resolve it.
I'm truly sorry my country is run by a bunch of incompetent boobs.
Yep and it isn’t getting any better. And people aren’t interested in helping getting the wrong people in charge out, it seems. I see the same 3 biggest boobs getting re-elected (most likely by cheating in some way) in November (Trump, Pence and McConnell). I’m sorry, world. End rant.
I know it's The Sun, but I buy it. For the last two weeks, the USA has been reporting daily increases which are records for certain states. Meanwhile, the President denies the increase is due to the virus spreading and is blaming testing. It's a pretty insane situation.
Simply put...NTTD does not want to be one the first blockbusters to come out post-pandemic. As the article puts it, if the film grosses less than $500m than it's an outright failure theatrically. The economics of NTTD sadly mean it's theatres and nothing else. For that to be a financially viable position, cinemas need to be at near full capacity and open internationally.
LA is on the verge of announcing stay-at-home measures to stop the spread....this is within a state that only just sanctioned the re-opening of theatres a month ago.
If they go into mandatory lockdown there, then the movie industry takes a direct hit. It means Tenet's 12 August release is toast. Which means Tenet is looking at opening in September/October..........................Which means the dominoes fall and Wonder Woman moves, Black Widow moves, etc.
Bond is going to 2021. We will sadly end up with another 5 year wait.
We'll be lucky if we get Bond 26 by the end of the decade at this rate.
Films made after COVID are likely to be small budget affairs, so that they can still go into profit even if half the world’s cinemas are shut, and B26 will be no different.
This means in turn though that B26 might come along quite quickly. Perhaps 2 or 3 years. The smaller the film, the quicker the turnaround time, and all that.
No Time To Die's release date 'is set to be changed AGAIN after COVID-19 stalled the James Bond film's launch by 7 months'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8508403/No-Time-Dies-release-date-set-changed-COVID-19-stalled-James-Bond-film.html
(grain of salt as always)
https://www.screendaily.com/news/screendaily-talks-uk-exhibitors-urge-us-studios-to-release-their-films-in-worlds-open-cinemas/5151464.article
If we're still in the same place in November, if there's a big blockbuster that could get away with not being a global day and date theatrical release and go international and UK first by a considerable margin, it's NTTD I'd say...hell maybe one step further and VOD it in the US only?
All jokes aside, NTTD is delayed to next year. Question is how long this situation will last?
Perhaps they could push the US release date back to allow for three weeks of an international theatrical run before giving it to the US on VOD? That would definitely get them over the mark in terms of what they need to pull in, dollar wise. VOD in the States just in time for Christmas?
I outlined in the other thread basically what the situation is right now when it comes to new releases and cinemas - I feel with that in mind whoever among the big blockbusters proves to be the most flexible in terms of release strategies and models (and not necessarily axiomatic - either cinemas only globally or PVOD only globally) is gonna be ahead of the pack.
On the one hand, Mulan and Black Widow almost certainly have alternate versions of the trailer/s they had in development that they can go back to, same goes for posters. In case of a big delay I feel they will have to restart properly.
Then again, we can look at King's Man which was scheduled for Feb and is now in September - by last autumn they had two trailers and the final poster...and then last month they just dropped one more trailer and one more final poster. That didn't start from scratch.
The existing trailers almost certainly now have versions with updated dates cinemas can screen.
I'm thinking 2032 in time for the 70th anniversary.
Honestly I'm afraid we'll be in the middle of another long gap, say 5 years after NTTD when we get the sad announcement Barbara and Michael are closing up shop for good.