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Big budget Hollywood movies won't be coming out if only 80% of theaters world-wide are still closed. And those 80% won't reopen until major releases happen. So we are currently in a situation with zero solution. At one point we will all have to admit that 2020 is a lost year, and no US blockbusters will be released until 2021.
If a cinema can only hold, for sake of argument, a third of its normal audience, then it needs to have three times as many showings. So it can either show the film at three times normal speed (72 frames per second!!) or the film itself is re-edited so it’s only a third of its length.
Instead of showing a single three hour film, it shows the film in three parts. Like an old Republic serial. That would get more people in, overall.
Yes I know this would destroy the artistic vision etc etc but I’m booting it out there as an idea. Desperate measures for desperate times, and all that.
On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.
Currently, the two most intransigent issues at the core of all the discussions at the moment is 1. the theatrical window and 2. the 'US-first' mentality.
Have they actually decided on a pattern of release for it since they released their statement (admittedly that was the last thing I read on that film)? It will still be pushed to the limit to minimise the gaps between releases in different territories, surely?
One source in close contact with the studios tells Variety that if Warner Bros. and Disney were facing a scenario in which Europe and Asia open first with “Tenet” and “Mulan” followed by the U.S. a couple of weeks later, “they’d do it every day of the week.” “The problem is they don’t know when the U.S. market is going to open up, and they’re not comfortable going longer than two weeks due to piracy.”
https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-global-box-office-international-exhibitors-forgotten-1234710870/
Does this two-weeks gap still apply to the staggered-release strategy that has since been talked about?
If so, I don't know how a staggered release is possible, as August is about to be the worst month of the pandemic for the US. And by September, we would be getting close to a second world-wide wave of the pandemic. Which would not only render a domestic release impossible, but it is likely that foreign markets would start to close down again if a second wave were to happen. What would be the solution then? Would studios really start considering dumping NTTD, Tenet, Black Widow, Wonder Woman, Top Gun, Dune straight on VOD? Because if we reach this point, it will become clear that the pandemic will not be going away anywhere near as fast as people predicted.
No need for that. If you have one new premiere a month (or few months now it seems) you can just play the movie in multiple rooms at the same time or starting every 30 minutes.
They haven't announced formally yet but:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/tenet-tosses-playbook-staggered-rollout-may-be-new-box-office-normal-1303932?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
I honestly hope it works out for them.
Is this the sequel of "coronavirus will wipe out 99% of humanity"? :))
To date, Disney hasn’t announced that Mulan would be shifting from its current Aug. 21 release date, and there’s speculation by a number of those in exhibition (and here by AMC) as well as rival studios that the movie won’t necessarily move, rather follow a course where it opens where it can around the country and the world.
https://deadline.com/2020/07/amc-theatres-new-reopening-date-coronavirus-tenet-1202992874/
This strategy i like and surely behind the scenes,smarter people than us have already considered it.Definetly no premieres for any big movies though.As much as i find it difficult to feel sympathetic for an actor who got paid 25 million up front for this film,this is hardly the way Daniel Craig wanted his Bond tenure to end.
It will not work.
They will have to release it in theatres where possible - and then keep it in theatres as long as possible, so it can make money over a long period.
I wouldn't release it as VOD or Blu-Ray until almost a year later.
Because the moment it becomes available online, the theatre box office will drop to 0.
Do it like in the old days. Movies were in the theatres for years, before they were shown on TV or otherwise.
That's not true, either, but you're right in that there's no doubt that the film will absolutely be pirated in large volume and would hurt the overall returns, on top of the fact that families renting the film (say, $15-25 total for four or five people to watch) won't help the returns compared to those same four or five people paying $7-20 each to see it in theaters.
It would be interesting to see an official VOD Box Office chart every week - like there is for theatres.
Movies with a $200 mio+ budget and another $100 mio marketing costs will need to make at least $700 million to get even. Only with VOD they will never get $700 million.
https://deadline.com/2020/07/quiet-place-2-top-gun-2-moving-to-2021-1202993889/
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Without Remorse has been sold to Amazon for a straight to VOD release.
The film was due for a wide theatrical release in February 2021.
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/michael-b-jordan-without-remorse-amazon-1234714715/
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Antlers delayed to February 2021.
The French Dispatch has been delayed indefinitely.
Ridley Scott's The Last Duel delayed to October 2021.
Fair enough.
This might be a solution to the blockbuster problem, however.
Instead of making a single blockbuster that needs to earn a rather unlikely billion dollars, you make three much shorter films back to back that each needs to earn back only $300 million or so, and you release them in whatever cinemas are available at the time.
Then for the home media release you re-edit them back into a single blockbuster movie.
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/dalian-china-coronavirus-cinemas-closed-again-1234715423/
That's why I said GROSS not NET! If I make a film for $1 and it takes $999,999,999 at the box office it would be a bigger profit than a film that take over a billion, but in terms of gross and in the table of best selling films of all time (IN GROSS) would not top the chart.
https://www.thewrap.com/summer-blockbuster-season-is-lost-what-about-the-rest-of-2020/
So I guess this pretty much confirms a staggered release is impossible to happen for the foreseeable future.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2020/jul/22/as-tenet-is-delayed-yet-again-is-it-time-to-end-cinemas-america-first-policy&ved=2ahUKEwiEnpTn5erqAhVUVsAKHf6kCw0QFjACegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw1jKXj82kUKr_BTlXJkx9oc&cf=1
This article is from Wednesday. The situation for a staggered release is already looking much more unlikely than it was 4 days ago. It is very possible that WB botched up their chance of a staggered release before even confirming their intentions. And NTTD being 3.5 months away, their release date is becoming very problematic if the world-wide Covid-19 surges don't get under control quickly.