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Why would online comments concern them? They're just numbers.
Saw TENET twice today. There were 124 people at the first screening and 143 at the second.
The auditorium has 317 seats, but even with social distancing it is possible to fill about 40%.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/tenet-verdict-ground-christopher-nolans-great-gamble-working/
Full article:
By Ian Winwood 27 August 2020 • 12:00pm
Tenet: the only film that can save cinema
The arrival of Tenet in UK cinemas could almost be a movie in itself. Its trailer could have been narrated by the great American voiceover artist Don LaFontaine. Prospective customers would be told that “in a world of disease and panic, only one man can save domestic picture palaces from Plymouth to Perthshire” – pronounced “shyer”, obviously – “from total destruction. His name is Christopher. Edward. Nolan.”
Nolan’s latest film was released in Britain yesterday. Given its importance to the structural integrity of cinemas big and small, it may as well have been titled Tenet-pole. As well as much else, it offers something new for audiences inured to characters who can fly or affix themselves to skyscrapers. Now, for the first time ever, the movie itself is the superhero.
“If Tenet doesn’t pull in the business like they think it will, other big movies like Wonder Woman [1984], Black Widow and No Time To Die will all be pushed back to next year,” says Jonathan Lines, the staff coordinator at the not-for-profit Plaza Community Cinema in Liverpool. “If that happens, the industry will really be in a dire state.”
The film website Screen Daily last week agreed, saying that “it’s fair to say that not just UK exhibitors [cinemas] but also rival distributors are rooting for Warner Bros to succeed with Christopher Nolan’s spy thriller.”
Leaving aside the notion that describing Tenet as a “spy thriller” is akin to calling Citizen Kane a story about the newspaper business, Nolan is one of the few filmmakers whose name alone can draw people to the big screen. His last three films – Dunkirk, Interstellar and The Dark Knight Rises – have combined for a worldwide gross of more than $2 billion (£1.5 billion).
Such is Nolan’s power, in fact, that he’s been able to persuade Warner Bros to release a picture that they were reportedly minded to push back until next year. Tenet cost more than $200 million (£150 million), and can now be seen in 70 countries. But it ain’t going cheap. In order to show the film in the UK, cinemas are required to hand over 60 per cent of its box office. By comparison, a number of distributors of classic films have reduced their cut to 20 per cent.
“[Nolan] not only wants to preserve the big-screen experience (understandable) but he also wants to be seen as the savior of cinemas (risky),” the film journalist Akhil Arora writes. “But in going for a staggered release” – Tenet will be unveiled gradually in America from next month – “[he] is going to end up spoiling the film for some (not good) or push them towards piracy (worse).”
Since re-opening last month, cinemas have been caught in a terrible double-bind. While new films have opened since July – the deliciously unpleasant Unhinged and the grimly moving Clemency, to name two – there is, as yet, not enough fresh stock to fill the nation’s screens. I’ve been to the pictures more than a dozen times in the past seven weeks, but only half of my visits were to see films on first-release. At no point has the audience reached double figures.
The UK box office for the second week of August was just 6 per cent of the total for the same period in 2019. As well as this, there are fissures between cinemas themselves. In Liverpool, the award-winning Plaza has launched a change.org campaign with 20 other independent outlets, in the hope of receiving a share of the subsidies that Jonathan Lines believes to disproportionately favour the larger arthouse venues.
“We’re being forgotten at the back here,” he says. “Our area was quite under-privileged, and still is in parts, and our mission was to make sure that everyone in it gets the chance to see a [mainstream] film.” At the Plaza, an adult can see a brand new movie for less than a fiver. “We’ve made it our business to keep our prices as low as possible while still being able to remain open,” he says.
“Cinema is a customer business, and for a number of months there were no customers,” says Phil Clapp, the chief executive of the UK Cinema Association, a body that represents 90 per vent of British exhibitors. “With the release of Tenet, we’re probably up to about 600 sites that have re-opened, which is about two-thirds of UK cinemas – so I think there is reason for optimism.
“We need to work to encourage people to go back to the cinema,” he says. “Hopefully those who do go back will have such a good time that they’ll tell others.”
Will Christopher Nolan's gamble blow up in his face? CREDIT: Warner Bros. Entertainment In pursuit of this story, yesterday I risked – checks notes – probable death by attending an afternoon screening of Tenet at the IMAX in Waterloo. I paid £25 to be a part of a gathering brought together by the sight of John David Washington and Elizabeth Debicki, projected in 70mm stock, on a screen the size of a Zeppelin hangar. We all queued patiently, wore masks in the lobby and sanitised our hands. We behaved responsibly because we want this to work.
“I think the way the cinema has handled this, in terms of social distancing and getting people to exit row-by-row, has been really good,” says Max, from Ludlow, in row P, seat 23. Sitting beside him is Courtney, from Bristol, who says the experience “has reminded me what a great social thing going to the cinema is. I’m 100 per cent happy that I came.”
As a music journalist, movies are not my usual beat. In all my years on the grift, I’ve interviewed just two actors – Jack Black and Jared Leto – both of whom play in successful bands. I’ve never been on a film set, and I’ve never attended a premiere. Each time I go to the pictures, I do so as a proud member of the British public.
But I do go a lot. Last year I went to the cinema 127 times. In 2020, I’d racked up two dozen visits by the time the curtain fell in March. I don’t always care what I see; for me, the experience is as important as the film. I’ll pay to see terrible movies – 365 Days, Bad Boys For Life – as readily as I’ll invest in Cold War, Knives Out, Sometimes Always Never or Parasite.
So desperate was I to get back in the swim that I went to see Black Water: Abyss at the Genesis Cinema, in Bethnal Green, the very day the projectors whirred into life once more. A ropey-dopey creature feature about a croc that lives in a cave, so magical was the experience that I emerged blinking into the East London night believing I’d seen a film to rival Psycho.
Others feel the same. “The feedback we’ve received from people who have gone back to the cinema after lockdown has been overwhelmingly positive,” says Phil Clapp. “Completely unprompted, a number of people have said that it’s like being a kid again. They’d almost forgotten that big-screen experience. So although we do have all the safeguards, we also haven’t forgotten the fact that it’s supposed to be an enjoyable leisure experience.”
As the weekend approaches, the British film industry is holding its breath, as it waits for the figures that will reveal whether or not the public has flocked to Tenet in numbers sufficient to forestall foreclosure. Yesterday it was reported by Deadline that advance ticket sales in the UK and Australia were outpacing those for Dunkirk and Interstellar – good news, even if the metric is far from prophetic.
Christopher Nolan refused to allow Tenet to be delayed to 2021, or moved to streaming services CREDIT: Reuters But even in a field contested by Marvel and DC superheroes, and a well-groomed Englishman who takes his drinks shaken (not stirred), Nolan’s film was destined to be the Cinematic Event of the Year. There is something gratifying, and quietly terrifying, that a film as berserk as this has become the capstone for commercial renewal. As Kenneth Branagh devoured scenery in front of me, standing 100 feet tall, I marvelled at my own ability to (more or less) hold tight to the plot. I strained sinews in order to maintain my attention. A minute away from my seat would have invited a hundred questions, of which “why is the action now running backwards?” is only one.
Prior to lockdown, the British public went to see an average of just under three films a year. In an age of facemasks and elbow-bumps, that number will not rise. Impressive and demanding as it may be, it has been reported that Tenet will need to earn $500 million (£380 million) before it breaks even. Between Friday and Sunday, the film will be shown 67 times at the Vue in Sheffield, a figure not uncommon in the largest cinemas. It’ll need every single screening.
“The sense of shared purpose and shared endeavor is even more acute now,” Phil Clapp says, “over the coming weeks and months, because we need to get the industry back to the success that it was seeing before lockdown.
“2018 and 2019 were the two biggest years for cinema attendances in the UK for the past 50 years. I’m hoping that while that success has been knocked sideways by lockdown, it hasn’t been fundamentally damaged.”
“In my opinion, I don’t think Tenet is the savior of cinema,” Jonathan Lines cautions. “I think it’s the first step back in a long road to recovery. But without Christopher Nolan, the independent industry and the mainstream industry would fail this year. I have no doubt about that.”
There will, of course, be people who don’t care about Tenet. There’ll be people who don’t care about any of the other big-ticket movies nominally on the docket for the rest of the year. But when we speak about culture and tradition, we would do well to remember the widespread and accessible delights of cinema. And so if anyone asks me what I’m up to this weekend, I’ll tell them: I’m off to the pictures.
----
The King's Man delayed to February 2021.
https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/the-kings-man-release-date-delayed-1234750966/
They are waiting mid September in order to have a full picture regarding Tenet’s numbers.
Have heard differently.
I can only hope!
Fine then. Since Tenet will bomb really hard they must have no choice.
Yeah, I don’t know who they’re kidding at this point. If it was coming out now they might have managed it, but November? Even if Tenet does okay, I can’t see that happening.
There’s gonna be another delay I reckon. They’re just delaying the inevitable by putting it off. Personally I wish they’d just bite the bullet, jump ahead of the competition and release it online. Christmas release, first new big franchise blockbuster anyone will have seen for ages. I think it’d do alright.
But sadly I think they’d rather just delay it again. Which could come back to haunt them imo. Delaying til we’re back to normal I don’t think will be an option, they’ll need to see some return on investment at some point before then. And there’s no telling how long it’ll be before cinemas are profitable again, or when infections will be up or down. Any cinema release date is a massive risk because there’s so many variables. And the longer they delay an online release, the less profitable such a release will be (because other blockbusters will start getting there first).
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Just posted new marketing stills in prod. thread. Plus DHL delivery (banners, posters, etc) according to a source to unknown destination.
Me too...........Released into the Thanksgiving/Christmas period, it could be a huge streaming success. Then, further down the line have a limited cinema release including Imax. I'd certainly watch it again on a big screen when I'm confident the environment is safe.
At some point one of these big productions has to stick its head above the parapet. They can't all delay until next year. If that happens then the market will be crowded and films will bomb for an altogether different reason. 'Tenet' has led the way but may not have been a cast iron, nailed on box office success anyway. Reviews are mixed afterall.
So, among the successful franchises with guaranteed box office like Bond, MCU and DC (Wonder Woman) someone needs to step up and take a chance. Maybe its Bond. It'll be promoted within an inch of its life and maybe it will the catalyst that gets people to the cinema.
Whether that is the right thing to do is a different argument, but at some point down the line someone has to take a chance.
The main problem is:
1. Tenet is on the verge of massively underperforming, if not outright flopping.
2. It is looking likely that the current release window that Tenet is currently occupying will be the best one for the rest of this year. Many countries are starting to tighten restrictions again.
So the million dollar question is: If Tenet grosses under $300 million, on a $200 million budget (which is within flop territory), and if it is likely in October/November/December that the available box office markets won't even allow to reach that same amount, what incentive is there to release another big budget film, now knowing just how little the box office earnings will be?
Before, we coult theorize that releasing NTTD anyway in November could very well earn enough money to be possible. But once we know $300 million world-wide may not even be possible? Would EON really be willing to witness the lowest grossing Bond film since LTK, on nearly 7 times the budget?
This is precisely what adds to the uncertainty of the current situation: while we know Tenet is underperforming in certain countries specifically due to sudden Covid-19 surges, in other territories it can be argued the film itself is underperforming due to poor audience reaction.
When the November delay was announced, I thought (I think I mentioned it on this forum as well) that I would have been happy / less upset if it had been delayed to July or August instead. Now would probably have been the best time to release it as November is usually the start of the flu season. Yes, it would have been competing directly against Tenet but I think NTTD would have decently based on brand recognition alone.
They’re welcome to try, but I just can’t see it going well for them at all. If it came out now I’d have been to see it already. But if it comes out when infection rates are high again, then I wouldn’t chance it. And I’m a Bond nerd who’s been seeing them at the cinema for decades, and usually hates the thought of them coming out anywhere else. If that’s how I feel, then how would general audience members feel?
I think they’ll know this as well, and will bottle it closer to the time. Just hope they release it on VOD rather than delaying again. I genuinely think that’s their best bet for turning a decent profit. Unless they’re able to sit on it for more than another year, which seems unlikely to me.
I think you’re right that they can’t keep delaying, and you’re right that Bond should lead the way. But imo, it should lead the way by chancing a VOD release. Get there first, before the competition. Release it over Christmas. First big franchise blockbuster people will have seen in ages. I think they could make a decent profit with that in mind, even with piracy inevitably eating into it a bit. Certainly less risky than the cinema will be for a while.
Wonder Woman 1984 comes out in 5 weeks. And that film will take precedence over Tenet, as 1. It is another $200 million budget film, and 2. There is a planned Wonder Woman 3, while Tenet is a one-off film, so WW84 needs more money than Tenet.
Tenet domestic tracking : openings weekend of $15 million to $35 million ; final total of $150 million to $300 million.
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-christopher-nolans-tenet/
The first big test for the box office arrived this weekend. We now have the first indication on the box office for Christopher Nolan's Tenet..........And it's good news! Very good news, in fact.
Analysts predicted that $25m would be a robust enough start for the film. Evidently, Tenet surpassed those expectations. The next test will be how Tenet fares this weekend at the domestic box office and in China. Also, Warner will hope that Tenet performs strongly next week in the markets that it is already open in.
I'm curious how it'll fare, as the response to the film seems very mixed. If anything, the general reactions seem to sway towards the negative. So Tenet may not get the word of mouth needed to encourage folk to return to theatres. However, it could be the perfect primer for Wonder Woman 1984, which always looked better placed to be the film to save cinemas.
With the arrival of Tenet, I'm thinking Hollywood won't be too ready to sacrifice 2020 entirely. Which brings us to the topic of this conversation.....No Time To Die at the box office in 2020
I'm thinking that MGM/Universal may very well stick to that date. Much will be dependent on the situation in Europe (cases are on the rise but deaths haven't trended up yet). But it looks more promising than ever that 007 will return this year.
You must be real fun at parties!
Five weeks is a LONG time for a film to play these days.WW84 ( If it does come out in Oct ) will draw a lot of people back if conditions allow given how well the first movie did and how popular Gadot is in the role.Remember they are playing the long game with these movies now and not basing everything on the opening weekend.
And can you give it a rest posting links to '' forecasts '' ? Often these things are inaccurate and its kinda tedious.