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Now, I'll concede that this may all have potentially changed with SF's monster success, because successor SP did in fact play more like a traditional blockbuster in both the UK and US, with a relatively strong opening weekend and a relatively poor overall multiplier.
Is this the start of a trend for the franchise - i.e. is it now like any other big name which must rely heavily on opening weekend? I hope not, because I feel that Bond films tend do best when they have legs and keep pulling in the punters in over time. Of course their ability to do that will be as much dependent on the quality of the individual film as on when they are released.
As you noted, SW has put a spanner in things as well, because Disney grabs all the big theatres for it. Having said that, something similar occurred in 2012 when The Hobbit was released, and it didn't seem to affect SF all that much. 2019 poses greater theatre count challenges with Frozen 2 in the mix as well.
So despite my concerns, there may indeed be a valid business case to move the release window this one time, particularly given the recent issues.
Lionsgate bets on Bond 25 moving as it snags November 8th weekend for 'Midway'
Lionsgate is betting that the 25th James Bond film will be vacating its planned US release date of November 8th, 2019. The studio has announced that they plan to release Roland Emmerich’s World War II action movie 'Midway' on the same day.
Aside from the planned 007 debut by MGM, the same weekend also sees the opening of Paramount’s 'Sonic the Hedgehog.'
Bond has opened against heavy competition at the box-office before, including the well-known clash of 'Tomorrow Never Dies' against 'Titanic.'
https://www.mi6-hq.com/news/lionsgate-bets-on-bond-25-moving-as-it-snags-november-8th-weekend-for-midway-180910
What are these studios going to do when it turns out bond 25 won't be delayed after all?
Maybe these studios knows more than we do. :(
TMND: 14 December 1997 (18 Dec)
Twine: 14 January 2000 (02 Dec)
Dad: 09 January 2003 (09 Jan) Movie delayd from 05 December 2002
I watched Spider-Man and Harry Potter 2 in 2002. I think i stil have watched Potter 2 if Bond 20 have been released in December. Started with reading books at the end of 2001 and watched first movie on dvd in May 2002. Also it to celebrate a bit of closing a scool era.
CR: 24 January 2007 (23 Nov) 2 weaks before removed from the cinema.
QOS: 17 November 2008 (06 Nov)
SF: 30 November 2012 (31 Oct) at 10.15 pm because earlier whas sold out.
Spectre: 12 November 2015 (29 Oct)
I don't hope there wil be a delay longer then 7 weaks, but Bond 25 on my 40th birthday on 30 - 07 - 2020 (who is on Thursday and wil be release date if there deside to release the movie in the 4th weak of July 2020) and it is 25th year i watched Goldeneye. But i rather prefer to watch movie again as 2 disc SE BD with 2 disc Bluray releases of the other 24 movies (50 disc) atleast. I even don't mind if we must wait till May with Bond 25 in December 2019.
Firstly, it allows them to clean up the creative mess behind the scenes and really let Fukunaga get his teeth into the project.
Bond pretty much has a clean run at the box-office now. In fact, I’m surprised that they didn’t delay the film to February 2019 with Boyle. It would have let him finish his musical and freed itself from competition of Wonder Woman 1984, Terminator and Stars Wars Episode IX. There is nothing coming in Feb 2020.
Now Bond will have a month to himself and if the film is any good, it could potentially play throughout the spring until the next Marvel offering in April 2020.
Black Panther moved the goal posts for release dates. That was a $1billion grosser that came out in February. Bond won’t necessarily reach those numbers but it will have entire frame where it’s the only ‘major’ tentpole.
As studios obsess over franchise films, I think it’s fairly certain all year will be blockbuster season. We’ve naturally move away from summer and Christmas.
Any concerns about losing Christmas? As has been noted up-thread, Bond has traditionally done well at holidays.
The loss of Christmas will be made up by the fact that Bond has a clear and clean run for two or three weeks as it will most likely only have to compete with the inevitable romantic comedies on Valentine's Day.
I think Bond pretty much has the slot to himself. All the major releases will move for Bond.
- DC have an untitled film on that date. That franchise likely has no clue what that film is yet, though it may be a Flash film. DC will move as Bond will compete for a similar audience.
- Blumhouse have a small horror film out that will get swallowed by Bond.
- Legally Blonde 3 could be huge and is scheduled to open that day. However, it’s an MGM release and they won’t want to compete with themselves. It’ll move.
- Vin Diesel has a disposal action film called Bloodshot coming out. It looks destined to bomb regardless of Bond 25’s release
The biggest threats come in March as Pixar have a scheduled release and Disney have a live-action Mulan film. I’ll just say now that Mulan will be one of the highest grossers of 2020. It’ll have a HUGE international gross and be a massive blockbuster north of a $1billion (Chinese audiences will ensure this). However, it’ll come out around 5 weeks after Bond 25 and that should hopefully get it’s business mostly done by then.
You might want to calm your expectations to avoid any potential disappointment. Here's hoping the film will be good but I'm not expecting Bond 25 to gross a $Billion. It'll be lucky and I'll be happy if it can make around $800M.
I would be expecting that but Nevertheless if film like spectre could get close to 900 million I could expect it to get past a billion
SP had the luxury of being a sequel to SF and so naturally audiences were going to come out and see it but its diminishing returns based on how subpar the film was was no surprise. The only surprise was how absurd the film was. Now, with a 5 year gap, an increasingly ever changing landscape there are no guarantees. The most we can hope for is for the film to be absolutely killer and if it makes $Billion then great but I just don't see that o the cards for Bond 25.
February/March is normally a slower time for box office. Yes, Black Panther did great business this year, but that was a global phenomenon. They don't come along often.
It should do a little better than this given the brand name and inflation, but it will be exchange rate dependent.
One of the most insightful posts on this thread imho.
I don't really see that, unless they have a great story and cast.
This is a risk. It could be seen as an old man's (and I mean man's) game.
Surely it's a bit too early to assume this. There's plenty of time for that calendar to get filled in.
I guess we will have to wait & see , for now I am just happy about the right Director.
2018 - Avengers: Infinity War (Followed by Black Panther)
Fifty Shades Freed 08 February 2018 - $6,487,334 (Universal!)
Black Panther 14 Feb 2018 - $9,975,474
The Shape of Water 15 Feb 2018 - $2,178,289
Game Night 22 Feb 2018 - $2,579,948
I, Tonya 22 Feb 2018 - $555,967
Bankier Van Het Verzet (Dutch movie) 08 March 2018 - $4,061,737
2017 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Followed by Despicable Me 3)
The Great Wall 02 Feb 2017 - $2,209,162 (Universal!)
Logan 03 Feb 2017 - $3,204,487
Fifty Shades Darker 09 Feb 2017 - $6,332,203 (Universal!)
John Wick 2 ''09 Feb 2017 - $2,260,864
Jackie 16 Feb 2017 - $1,420,530
Kong: Skull Island 09 March 2017 - $3,900,000
2016 - Bridget Jones's Baby (Followed by Harry Potter 9)
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip 04 Feb 2016 - $4,411,437
How to Be Single 11 Feb 2016 - $2,771,220
Zootopia 17 Feb 2016 - $5,807,558
Gods of Egypt 25 Feb 2016 - $963,291
London Has Fallen 03 March 2016 - $2,945,801
Rokjesdag (Dutch movie) 10 March 2018 - $3,703,315
2015 - Spectre (Followed by Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Fifty Shades of Grey 12 Feb 2015 - $6,907,429. (Universal!)
Big Hero 6 '' 12 Feb 2015 - $2,782,510
Kingsman: The Secret Service (2014 movie) 12 Feb 2015 - $2,709,675 (not released by Fox in the cinema)
Wild (2014 movie) 26 Feb 2015 - $729,708 (MGM! and FOX)
American Sniper 05 March 2018 - $2,668,469
Still Alice 12 March 2015 - $3,088,254
I'd guess that B25 will see Fukunaga working with a trimmed budget.
Which would mean Spectre makes more money than than Fallout.
Skyfall followed up on a Bond film under similar circumstances, and made a Billion.
And sure, it had the Olympics etc. But it was the film that made everyone go to the cinema and it was the repeat viewings thanks to the strong word of mouth that helped it bump up its numbers.
People won't give a rats ass about how good or bad Spectre was. It's Craig's final Bond film and that will bring them in. Maybe not to a Billion, but I'd confidently say €750-800million. With a (hopefully) reduced budget, that's a win.
Bold prediction indeed, @Mendes4Lyfe.
I'd expect so.
I don't think, based on what I can tell, that they're chasing the box office as much as they were with SP. I wouldn't be surprised if there are reduced targets for this film on the revenue side, but higher expectations for net profit. If it hits both, then that's an added bonus.