Oscar Predictions- Does NTTD have a realistic chance?

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  • Posts: 12,466
    Phoenix is overdue for an Oscar win. That’s the main thing I’d love to happen, and it seems like a sure bet at this point. Joker, Parasite, and 1917 would all make for a great Best Picture choice.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 25,095
    True Phoenix has some great performances under his belt, I slept for a few hours so ready and alert to watch the Oscars, it starts 1am here.
  • Great nominees, but is this one of the most predictable Oscar years ever for the main categories?

    1917 for Picture and Director, Zellweger, Phoenix, Pitt, and Dern
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    edited February 2020 Posts: 25,095
    I have no idea who this opening act is

    Steve Martin and Chris Rock are brilliant
  • Really happy about Pitt winning. I thought he was the best thing about OUATIH.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 25,095
    Bong Joon Ho gets best Director interesting
  • Posts: 12,466
    Bong Joon Ho gets best Director interesting

    Well-earned. He did a phenomenal job and Parasite is a masterpiece.
  • FoxRox wrote: »
    Bong Joon Ho gets best Director interesting

    Well-earned. He did a phenomenal job and Parasite is a masterpiece.
    Agreed! Don't have any complaints but I thought that was going to Mendes.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 25,095
    Fantastic congrats to Parasite best picture
  • Posts: 12,466
    Awesome! No other choice would have made me happier!
  • GoldenGunGoldenGun Per ora e per il momento che verrà
    Posts: 7,118
    I'm happy that, for once, the Academy have looked further than their backyard. Great winner!
  • Seven_Point_Six_FiveSeven_Point_Six_Five Southern California
    Posts: 1,257
    After Roma missed out on best picture last year, I was pretty convinced the same would happen to Parasite. I’m really happy that Parasite got the recognition it deserved, especially in 4 significant categories.
  • Posts: 12,526
    Congratulations to all of last nights Oscar winners!!!! =D>
  • Posts: 12,466
    As far as results go it was one of the best Oscars I can remember. Was very pleased with every result for all the categories I was looking out for.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,183
    All time lowest ratings for the Academy: https://ew.com/oscars/2020/02/10/oscars-hit-all-time-low-viewership/

    I suppose Academy members are in the offices now saying: "Okay, awarding foreign films? No more! It's all Hollywood, baby!"

    Maybe they'll even get another crack at that misguided "Best Popular Film" category that almost happened last year.
  • Posts: 1,917
    I kind of like the no host format, but that was the worst opening since Rob Lowe danced with Snow White. They tried going edgy and it was just awkward and more appropriate for the Grammys as was that mid-show rap thing and those intros of presenters by little-known young performers. So many of the jokes fell flat as well. Please don't invite Will Ferrell anymore.

    Otherwise, I thought the show really moved and didn't waste as much time as in some past Oscars. I was most excited for the filmmakers who won the Best Documentary as they are from the town near me, giving it a shout-out in their speech, and taught at the university I graduated from and I would have studied under had I stayed in the film program.
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    Haven't seen parasite yet , didn't knew it was that good. Looking forward to it.
  • Posts: 7,653
    It is probably the kind of movie that will most likely can be found in the bargain basement of BLuray and DVD withing a few months, looking forward to finding it.
    Home cinema is easily cheaper than a visit to the cinema.
  • I thought I would update this a bit as we lead up to NTTD. Is there any chance NTTD will be represented at the Oscars next year? I believe at this stage, production design, cinematography, and best original song should almost be a lock, but are there any other categories you think the film could get nominated for? Of course we still have about a year to wait, so a lot can happen in that time, but it will be interesting to see what does happen.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,216
    Best Original Song is the only one I'd consider a shoe-in at this stage.
  • Posts: 1,917
    Sorry, this reminds me of NFL draft projections right after the then-current draft ends. It's too hard to predict something like this when you don't know what other projects are coming up, such as a year ago did anybody count on Joker, 1917 or Parasite being the forces they were.
  • peterpeter Toronto
    Posts: 9,509
    The problem with the Academy is more often than not, they don't have very long memories.

    I hope Universal/MGM have a little fund to re-release the film for a couple of weeks during award season since it's not only Billie's song that should be in contention, but also Linus Sandgren, Hans Zimmer, and, if the film is hitting the right notes (commercially as well as critically), then outliers chance for Dan Craig, Lea and Malek and Fukunaga for nominations (very, very, very outside chance for noms for the final three/four, and; I say this as an assumption that this film will be a big, sweeping, romantic-thriller).
  • DeerAtTheGatesDeerAtTheGates Belgium
    edited February 2020 Posts: 524
    I agree with @peter here that a lot has to do about pushing the film. No idea how budgets for these things work, but let's hope that MGM isn't the one doing this by themselves as domestic distributor, as they really don't have the budget for it.

    Skyfall really had a good Oscar campaign going, which essentially pushed 3 main categories: Adele for the song (but that really was a given nomination, almost), Thomas Newman for the score and Roger Deakins for cinematography. Sony Classical made a special expanded score album that included the Adele track to hand out to Academy members. Whoever's in charge of the musical score release should consider doing that again.

    The release date of the film is a disadvantage this time around. I'd say Sam Smith (and Adele too, to a certain degree) got their nomination because the song was fresh in people's minds. This time, that's not the case.

    Unless the film is extraordinary, I doubt anyone at the studio(s) will try to push for any nominations in the big categories. Bond is too mainstream for many Academy members to get considered for any best acting or direction nods.
    A lot of Marvel fans were upset Disney didn't try to campaign for Robert Downey Jr. in the best actor category. Disney didn't do it because they knew that they could better spend the money on other campaigns for the same film in other categories. The Harry Potter films were never nominated in acting categories, despite Alan Rickman giving an excellent performance in that last film. Warner Bros. never campaigned for it, because they knew it was unreachable. The Lord of the Rings films never campaigned for Best Actor nominations. Return of the King did win Best Picture and Best Director, so it's not impossible.

    I still stand by the fact that I think Judi Dench should've gotten an Best Supporting Actress nomination for Skyfall, but alas, that's not how the Academy works.

    So, when it comes to nominations, the following are realistic, if pushed by the studios:
    • Best Original Song, Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
    • Best Original Score, Hans Zimmer
    • Best Cinematography, Linus Sandgren

    Of course, there are some "bonus categories", which are not easy to predict, but I think that nominations are possible in the following categories:
    • Best Production Design
    • Best Sound Mixing
    • Best Sound Editing
    • Best Film Editing

    As for wins, that's something else entirely...
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