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Yup just saw the announcement, we will see how much people support this. Hope they are smart and learn from other countries.
Staying home now earns you the licence to Bond in November!
Sadly, Italy has just recorded its 2nd largest single-day increase: 743 people have died from coronavirus in Italy in the past 24 hours. Total death-toll in the country is now 6,820 fatalities.
Italy's past 4 days:
793 deaths (March 21st).
651 deaths (March 22nd).
602 deaths (March 23rd).
743 deaths (March 24th).
Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, wants the full tube network running again. This is completely contradictory to the two meter rule. It's impossible for busy tubes to have a two meter rule. Absolute insanity or basically a flat out lie from Hancock. The tube is the ideal breeding ground for coronavirus.
The UK government has also failed to address the terrible problem of your employer telling you must come to work or you will lose your job. Many people have rung and tweeted LBC talk radio and said "my job is not essential, I don't need to work but my employer refuses to let me go into home isolation." The government has not introduced any legislation to force employers to let their staff go if they're non essential. Given the service nature of the UK economy it makes selfish sense for most bosses to want to keep their staff on site, in the office or wherever, to keep their business going and make money but this is contrary to Johnson's rule about only essential work being allowed. It seems any work is essential if your boss thinks so!
It's clear the government hasn't given much thought to this lockdown and the tube policy makes a mockery of the whole thing. If any people contract coronavirus on the tube then the whole thing is a waste of time. All tubes should be locked down tonight and the government should pay the 80 percent wage salary for those tube travellers losing their jobs. I'm afraid the government is failing on this basics of this policy. You might as well do it properly or don't do it at all.
Yes, lockdown is pointless or clearly not this great policy to stop the virus. In fact the death toll has gone up since lockdown. You couldn't make this up it's that ironic. I think the WHO should be held accountable for this lockdown policy. Is there some genius that can explain why Italy and Spain's death toll has actually RISEN by large margins since lockdown?
Hard to say that but right know the most important statistic is the number of new infections and for the third day in a row is slowing down. Very slowly, but at least is a good sign...
That's right, given there is a 2 weeks delay between infection and recovery/death, hopefully this means that the slowing down of new infections will be followed by a slowing down of deaths soon enough.
Yep and is very important also to give a little more breath to the hospitals...
I think you can answer your question yourself. It is quite obvious.
Is this the same virus that you think we are all overreacting to?
I agree with part of your post though. The UK is making a shambles of this, absolutely. To cut the government some slack though, this situation is rapidly changing hour by hour, so normal planning and logistics for this never-seen-before crisis is taking all countries by surprise.
What would you suggest instead of lockdown? Everyone carries on as normal, goes about their business, mingling, keeping society all normal, to give this virus chance to spread at an even faster rate worldwide? Is that the answer?
I'm sure the NHS workers would love even more sick patients to treat. They don't have enough to do, currently.
Are you seriously trying to say that viruses are more contagious when people are quarantined, and are less contagious if people mingle at will?
There is a time lag between people catching the virus and then exhibiting symptoms. Seems to be as long as 10-14 days, in some cases. That lag has a consequence. It means that the known number of cases is about 10 days behind the actual number of cases, ballpark, because only people who show symptoms tend to get tested.
So, when the lockdown comes into force, you only know of 1,000 cases, say. But there’s actually 100,000 cases. These cases only get detected after the lockdown. So, it looks like the case rate is going up. But the lockdown is already having an effect, and after about 10 days or so the rise in numbers should start to slow down, and then level off, and then decline.
That’s if a country has not left the lockdown too late. If we have left it too late, then things will still rise (just more slowly) after lockdown.
Once again, I am not explaining this for your benefit at all, because having read your posts for a while now I have reached my own conclusions about you.
However, other people may find this useful.
I have no words left to describe you.
1. Cases in Italy are slowing down.
2. The benefit of the lockdown can be seen only after 15 days+ given the nature of the virus (IF the citizens really follow the rules... and it’s a BIG IF).
3. Lockdown in Europe is not the same as in China. That one was a real lockdown. In Italy public transports and industries are working right now.
4. You don’t need to be a genius to understand the obvious.
Here in Brooklyn - where I live - people seem to be doing just that. You can hear a pin drop as everything is so quiet. I had to step out of my apartment for a few minutes earlier today, and the few stores that are open (primarily groceries) are well stocked, but almost empty of people.
Here in New York City, the public transit systems are still running a (mostly) normal schedule. The logic is - beyond getting medical, police, fire, etc workers to their jobs - is to prevent users from having close contact with each other. I haven't travel beyond my block for more than a week, but from what I've seen on the news, people literally have entire train cars to themselves.
Most people here are going nuts even after grocery stores told them to not take more than they need. They even mentioned that there won't be shortage of stocks but people still getting panicked.
YES
There is a pattern here. Slow response. High Cigarette usage. Large number of deaths.
Stay home everyone, please. And in that individual case, please, stay home forever.
And on a side note, @matt_u, thank you for your lucid contributions to this thread, hope you are well, Mr. Roark. All of your points above are correct and are a beacon of hope for Italy and the rest of the world. The curve will flatten, the increase is slowing its tempo (for those who don't understand the meaning of exponential), we will make it. Be safe. Be strong.
Thanks my friend! Yeah it’s hard especially since I’m living alone now and probably quarantine will last for at least another month... but obviously it’s the right thing to do! Better times will come. Stay well too I know you will!
I'm merely stating facts. The infection rate has shot up by 200,000 in ten days. That ten days is within the time period when Spain and Italy went into full lockdown. Parts of the US are in full lockdown too.
I'm just stating lockdown is not slowing down the virus. You are not correct when you say the lockdown is having an effect. The death rate is now 15 percent, it was 13 percent a few days ago. Italy still has the highest daily death rate of any country in the world. Lockdown has had zero effect on coronavirus. The death rate is still small though but the infection rate is getting very alarming. If there is no drop soon we're on the trajectory to get to a million or more infected cases by Dec 31st.
I can't see any magic solution to this problem. If you keep the lockdowns you're going to ruin the economies of the world, create mental illness - trust me, people locked in for months is going to make some crazy and that can pose real problems in terms of crime (we all know about shooters in the US) and other social problems.
And if you drop the lockdowns there is going to be a big increase in infected numbers.
One possibility is enough people get cr, get over it, have immunity. They get tested and they can see their elderly parents. It's a very problematic approach but a third way. Keep the 70 plus in permanent home lockdown (they can still go out once a day). The rest of the population has cr tests. Yes, this will cost billions to do but it's worth doing to ascertain which age groups under 70 have the virus and which don't. Assuming the virus doesn't mutate, some people under 70 will die from cr but people of all ages die from other diseases. That's just the brutal fact of life. My personal option is to drop the lockdowns in a month to six weeks if there is no downturn in the infection and death rates. Keep the 70 plus year olds in lockdown. Get the economy back on track. That is vital. Every citizen in the world will be forced to take a cr test to determine their health status. If they have cr they must go into isolation for a week. I accept this is hugely expensive and time consuming but it can be done. Humans are a resourceful lot!
I accept this is not perfect approach but I reckon it's better than options 1 and 2 which could be far worse. The United Nations passes some law, all countries in the world sign up to it. Mandatory coronavirus test before any interaction with elderly parents. Sure, it's impossible to enforce for every person but that's the way it goes. At least you get many people to have tests and they can can isolate themselves and we still get the economies back online. It's insanity to shut down the world economy for more than a few weeks. It will be the greatest mistake in world history. It has the potential to be far worse than coronavirus. This is a key moment in the history of our planet. We have to think beyond the dead victims of coronavirus. You cannot destroy the world economy over any amount of cr deaths because it's a catastrophe of insane proportion. People have to realize this. You want the US to go into depression, Europe, you want millions unemployed, more crime, more poverty? I'm sorry, no amount of cr victims is worth billions of people's lives ruined or made much much worse by closing down the planet.
You're merely mis-stating facts and you can feel free to stop any old time now. Let's try taking the advice of experts in the field of communicable diseases, shall we? They're quite clear on the topic: shelter in place is the best tactic to slow the spread of this virus. The sooner the tactic is used the more effective it is. Your priorities -- economics before human life, and hey, the heck with those troublesome 70 plus year olds -- are seriously out of whack. I'd recommend taking a good look at them -- with any luck, you too may someday become a troublesome 70 year old. Try to make your positions now something you'll be proud of having taken if that far away day does indeed ever occur.
Of course quarantining and lockdown is effective. I can't understand how anyone would think otherwise.
Science. Who'd a' thunk it?