Coronavirus Discussion

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  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Italy now has suffered 25% of all the coronavirus casualties in the world.
  • zebrafishzebrafish <°)))< in Octopussy's garden in the shade
    Posts: 4,341
    Excellent response, @DarthDimi !
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    edited March 2020 Posts: 24,183
    zebrafish wrote: »
    Excellent response, @DarthDimi !

    Thank you, @zebrafish.
    I simply want to remember people that we are resilient, not just as a biological species, but also as a civilisation. Terrorists have tried to cripple us: they have always failed. Hitler tried to annex Europe and then the whole world: he was destroyed and we came out stronger in many regards. Flu, Ebola, SARS and now COVID-19: none of them has damaged us beyond repair. Of course, we can't beat this thing without some sacrifice; we're making sacrifices right now. But keep your courage and do as told.

    Some have already said that the "Don't panic!" slogan is patronizing and wrong. It's neither. It's normal that people are afraid; we always are of that we don't fully understand or expect. Blood in urine freaks us all out because it could indicate something very serious and life-threatening, especially according to Dr Google; it could, however, also mean that you have kidney stones, and while removing those is usually painful, once it's over, it's over and relatively little damage is done. Rational thinking takes you to a specialist who will diagnose and subsequently free you from those kidney stones. Panic, however, means you're calling everyone in the book, screaming you're going to die, crying hysterically and meanwhile, NOT consulting the people you need to see as fast as possible. While the analogy doesn't fully hold up, I only mean to show that panic is never good. Even in crises much worse than this one, panic is just not good. Panic never leads to anything other than more panic, but nothing constructive, curative or helpful ever came from panicking.

    Many countries have by now issued quarantine measures and certain travel restrictions, good hygiene recommendations and something close to or equal to a lockdown. For these things to work, we need to stay cool and do what is asked of us, even if it comes at the cost of not being able to attend certain social happenings, of making less or no money for the moment (with, hopefully, some systems installed in your country to back you up there), of going through your daily routine, of doing the things you like to do like hitting the gym or even going out for a walk. All things considered, that cost is low if lives are saved, especially if it's only for a few weeks or months. I mean, what is a few months in a whole lifetime?

    I don't want to sound all "teachy", and please, I'm not a virologist, but just for the record: a virus is not a ghost. It doesn't just show up. It needs to be transmitted through contact, via particles that you project on others when you sneeze or cough, for example, of when you exchange saliva through kisses or talking too close to each other. Viruses survive only very temporarily on surfaces like doorknobs, keyboards, money and computer mouses. Hence the strongest of recommendations to wash your hands, thoroughly and for a very long time, using copious amounts of sope, and more frequently than usual. Also, don't shake hands with others, be careful what you touch in public and, once again, wash your hands. Don't touch your face, don't pick your nose, don't fight that itch, unless you have thoroughly washed your hands. So, if we reduce physical contact with other people to the strictest minimum, if we apply some extra hand-and-face hygiene and if we don't touch public things unless we absolutely have to (and then wash our hands), it's relatively easy to avoid the virus. It's not "in the air" you breathe unless someone just sneezed his butt off right in front of you so to speak. Even the claim that ventilation systems carry the virus around has been falsified. So, quarantine and lockdown, while frightening to some, the prelude to the total destruction of our society as it were, are fairly simple and unbelievably effective ways to beat the nasty bugger. They really are. And we will pick ourselves up again afterwards.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    I just read that infected people in UK could be 10000+ and that the medical chief officer said that 80% of British population could be infected with half a million casualties. Now I’m asking: why are they not locking down the whole country?
  • zebrafishzebrafish <°)))< in Octopussy's garden in the shade
    Posts: 4,341
    matt_u wrote: »
    I just read that infected people in UK could be 10000+ and that the medical chief officer said that 80% of British population could be infected with half a million casualties. Now I’m asking: why are they not locking down the whole country?

    The overall mortality rate so far has been below 1% (less than 1 of 100 people that developed clear symptoms have died). If 10 000 or more people finally get infected that means less than 100 deaths. As hospitals become better equipped with the situation over the precious time that the current measures are supposed to provide, then that percentage will drop even more.

    A million casualties would mean more than 100 million infected people. Certainly, that figure cannot refer to the UK or any other European country. Please choose your sources for that type of information carefully.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    zebrafish wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    I just read that infected people in UK could be 10000+ and that the medical chief officer said that 80% of British population could be infected with half a million casualties. Now I’m asking: why are they not locking down the whole country?

    The overall mortality rate so far has been below 1% (less than 1 of 100 people that developed clear symptoms have died). If 10 000 or more people finally get infected that means less than 100 deaths. As hospitals become better equipped with the situation over the precious time that the current measures are supposed to provide, then that percentage will drop even more.

    A million casualties would mean more than 100 million infected people. Certainly, that figure cannot refer to the UK or any other European country. Please choose your sources for that type of information carefully.

    The Guardian.

    Anyway you’re wrong. 1%? Maybe in South Korea. In Italy there’s a 6.6% of casualties among infected people with symptoms. In the Lombardy region, where I live, the deaths are close to 9% because there are so many infections that there are no more beds for IC. Which is the real deal because hospitals won’t be able to hospitalize COVID19 patients nor other people with different diseases. Don’t underestimate the situation. Those are clear numbers. The western world should take Italy as a prime example in order to act properly, but it doesn’t seem the case.
  • 007Blofeld007Blofeld In the freedom of the West.
    Posts: 3,126
    All the sports in the U.S. are canceled the Olympics probably are next but I hope not.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    “Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said in broadcast interviews Friday that the infection rate could hit 60% of the British population, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that “many more” families will lose loved ones. The approach is aimed at making sure the right interventions are made at the right time to deal with an outbreak that’s going to last months, officials said.”

    Source: Bloomberg.com

    EDIT: the youngest victim in Italy is now a 38 years old man with previous respiratory problems. It is unknown how severe those problems were. The number of deaths here is 1266.

    Interesting that 80+% of deaths are male.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    matt_u wrote: »
    “Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said in broadcast interviews Friday that the infection rate could hit 60% of the British population, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that “many more” families will lose loved ones. The approach is aimed at making sure the right interventions are made at the right time to deal with an outbreak that’s going to last months, officials said.”

    Source: Bloomberg.com

    I understand that we don't want to be treated like toddlers, but can I just say that Johnson's blunt remark about families losing loved ones is clumsy and counter-productive. "Many more" is a very vague term. Some people will think "hundreds" while others think "hundreds of thousands" or even more. It's precisely this kind of loose expressions, pulled from thin air, that causes panic, and as I said before, panic is never good. There's not a single crisis, even the worst of the worst (which this is isn't) that makes us benefit from panic. A leader should never address his people by saying "you'all gonna die", yet what Johnson said is hardly any better. No-one has the exact numbers and cryptic "few" and "many" lines add nothing positive to the official communication. The honest truth is that the numbers will increase but exactly how high, no-one knows. Eventually, they will stop rising and then they will fall. That's what we know. "Many more" is only here to make people uncomfortable without anything substantial.

    Plus, if you want your people to do everything they can in stopping the virus from spreading, I don't think it's prudent to simultaneously present them with a fatalistic outlook on things, especially one that's not even backed up by actual numbers or orders of magnitude, but just by a highly confusing "many".
  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Posts: 7,551
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?
  • Posts: 7,507
    With the new quarantine regulations I guess this is the right time to go for a new bondathon
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 25,131
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?

    Good to here, and the kind of news I will focus on.
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    Posts: 9,040
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?
    I am delighted to read this. If the Chinese migrant workers are once again free to buy overpriced cult gadgets they themselves produced at a slave-labour fraction of the costs, the coronavirus crisis must truly be over.
  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Posts: 7,551
    j_w_pepper wrote: »
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?
    I am delighted to read this. If the Chinese migrant workers are once again free to buy overpriced cult gadgets they themselves produced at a slave-labour fraction of the costs, the coronavirus crisis must truly be over.

    I don't know how to roll my eyes over the internet, but obviously the take away here is that retail shops that were closed due to coronavirus are now reopening in China, which must been seen as some kind of silver lining. Regardless of who the retailer is or what they sell.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    jobo wrote: »
    With the new quarantine regulations I guess this is the right time to go for a new bondathon

    I'm with you, @jobo. I'll be working from home too, so I guess the time I usually spend commuting will now go into watching films. :)
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?

    Good to here, and the kind of news I will focus on.

    Indeed, that is good news. And there's no reason to assume that normal life cannot resume where we live in a matter of time. A lot will depend on how calm and smart we remain. Hoarding toilet paper and dry food is not helping.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 3,566
    j_w_pepper wrote: »
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?
    I am delighted to read this. If the Chinese migrant workers are once again free to buy overpriced cult gadgets they themselves produced at a slave-labour fraction of the costs, the coronavirus crisis must truly be over.

    Non-political thread, JW. Or does that only mean I can't mention DJT here (or there or anywhere?) ;)
  • 007Blofeld007Blofeld In the freedom of the West.
    edited March 2020 Posts: 3,126
    I'm wondering how this whole thing started I heard it started from bats being in a Chinese market.
  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Posts: 7,551
    007Blofeld wrote: »
    I'm wondering how this whole thing started I heard it started from bats being in a Chinese market.

    I heard it was a bat as well.
  • 007Blofeld007Blofeld In the freedom of the West.
    edited March 2020 Posts: 3,126
    007Blofeld wrote: »
    I'm wondering how this whole thing started I heard it started from bats being in a Chinese market.

    I heard it was a bat as well.

    Like it was sliced open from a "filthy animal market" blood fesis out and they touched thier mouth or something disgusting like that. Countries should pressure China to have better health practices in these flea markets or what not.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    It supposedly started with illegal trade in pangolins' scales, though nothing's been confirmed so far. We'll probably never know for sure either. But a marketplace with forbidden trade in something seems to be the starting point either way. I'm sure we will all collectively be angry about that for the rest of our lives.
  • Posts: 2,918
    I'm guessing many of us will be spending the weekend at home, watching movies or listening to music. I hear this DJ is particularly good:

    89554729_10158214455586419_5541541932590694400_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=vUD0DAV4rZoAX_hKrFF&_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=d9f8a8b6a888c80dd58925b64e6de5d3&oe=5E9311DE
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    Revelator wrote: »
    I'm guessing many of us will be spending the weekend at home, watching movies or listening to music. I hear this DJ is particularly good:

    89554729_10158214455586419_5541541932590694400_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=vUD0DAV4rZoAX_hKrFF&_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=d9f8a8b6a888c80dd58925b64e6de5d3&oe=5E9311DE

    Good lord, that's an epic photo! :D Thank you, @Revelator!
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 12,837
    Never thought I'd miss the days where all the news was about was Brexit, but here we are.

    Seems like yesterday people were saying them pushing the NTTD release date back was an overreaction. Just all seems to have escalated so quickly.
    DarthDimi wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    “Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said in broadcast interviews Friday that the infection rate could hit 60% of the British population, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that “many more” families will lose loved ones. The approach is aimed at making sure the right interventions are made at the right time to deal with an outbreak that’s going to last months, officials said.”

    Source: Bloomberg.com

    I understand that we don't want to be treated like toddlers, but can I just say that Johnson's blunt remark about families losing loved ones is clumsy and counter-productive. "Many more" is a very vague term. Some people will think "hundreds" while others think "hundreds of thousands" or even more. It's precisely this kind of loose expressions, pulled from thin air, that causes panic, and as I said before, panic is never good. There's not a single crisis, even the worst of the worst (which this is isn't) that makes us benefit from panic. A leader should never address his people by saying "you'all gonna die", yet what Johnson said is hardly any better. No-one has the exact numbers and cryptic "few" and "many" lines add nothing positive to the official communication. The honest truth is that the numbers will increase but exactly how high, no-one knows. Eventually, they will stop rising and then they will fall. That's what we know. "Many more" is only here to make people uncomfortable without anything substantial.

    Plus, if you want your people to do everything they can in stopping the virus from spreading, I don't think it's prudent to simultaneously present them with a fatalistic outlook on things, especially one that's not even backed up by actual numbers or orders of magnitude, but just by a highly confusing "many".

    Yeah I thought this was stupid too. I get the idea behind it, they need to make sure people are taking it seriously, but at the same time, coming out with that is only going to cause further panic, and it's panic that's making those vulnerable to this even more vulnerable. More stress, weaker immune systems, people panic buying meaning those at risk can't get the supplies they need, etc. That's why I think the media's handling of it hasn't been great. I have to keep getting my wife to stop checking social media all the time because she's that stressed about her older relatives. Don't get me wrong, I am too. Her family are my family, plus I've got a few older relatives who all live in different parts of the UK to me or different countries altogether. But I just keep having to check up on them and remind myself that they've got people there looking after them, and focus on trying to stay calm and keep my wife calm for the sake of her lot, because we actually live near them, worst case scenario they could be completely reliant on us (we've already been getting them stocked up and telling them to stay in etc). It's a horrible situation, but for most of us it is essentially just flu, we need to be staying calm to make sure that those who are more vulnerable to it are getting the care they need.

    I am very confused about our government's approach though (another reason the "many families" comment was stupid, it came right after they announced they're basically doing nothing right now). It made sense when they explained it, but it's still worryingly different to how every other country seems to be tackling it. My money's on us being locked down come Monday after the massive backlash to it.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    Never thought I'd miss the days where all the news was about was Brexit, but here we are.

    Seems like yesterday people were saying them pushing the NTTD release date back was an overreaction. Just all seems to have escalated so quickly.
    DarthDimi wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    “Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said in broadcast interviews Friday that the infection rate could hit 60% of the British population, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that “many more” families will lose loved ones. The approach is aimed at making sure the right interventions are made at the right time to deal with an outbreak that’s going to last months, officials said.”

    Source: Bloomberg.com

    I understand that we don't want to be treated like toddlers, but can I just say that Johnson's blunt remark about families losing loved ones is clumsy and counter-productive. "Many more" is a very vague term. Some people will think "hundreds" while others think "hundreds of thousands" or even more. It's precisely this kind of loose expressions, pulled from thin air, that causes panic, and as I said before, panic is never good. There's not a single crisis, even the worst of the worst (which this is isn't) that makes us benefit from panic. A leader should never address his people by saying "you'all gonna die", yet what Johnson said is hardly any better. No-one has the exact numbers and cryptic "few" and "many" lines add nothing positive to the official communication. The honest truth is that the numbers will increase but exactly how high, no-one knows. Eventually, they will stop rising and then they will fall. That's what we know. "Many more" is only here to make people uncomfortable without anything substantial.

    Plus, if you want your people to do everything they can in stopping the virus from spreading, I don't think it's prudent to simultaneously present them with a fatalistic outlook on things, especially one that's not even backed up by actual numbers or orders of magnitude, but just by a highly confusing "many".

    Yeah I thought this was stupid too. I get the idea behind it, they need to make sure people are taking it seriously, but at the same time, coming out with that is only going to cause further panic, and it's panic that's making those vulnerable to this even more vulnerable. More stress, weaker immune systems, people panic buying meaning those at risk can't get the supplies they need, etc. That's why I think the media's handling of it hasn't been great. I have to keep getting my wife to stop checking social media all the time because she's that stressed about her older relatives. Don't get me wrong, I am too. Her family are my family, plus I've got a few older relatives who all live in different parts of the UK to me or different countries altogether. But I just keep having to check up on them and remind myself that they've got people there looking after them, and focus on trying to stay calm and keep my wife calm for the sake of her lot, because we actually live near them, worst case scenario they could be completely reliant on us (we've already been getting them stocked up and telling them to stay in etc). It's a horrible situation, but for most of us it is essentially just flu, we need to be staying calm to make sure that those who are more vulnerable to it are getting the care they need.

    I am very confused about our government's approach though (another reason the "many families" comment was stupid, it came right after they announced they're basically doing nothing right now). It made sense when they explained it, but it's still worryingly different to how every other country seems to be tackling it. My money's on us being locked down come Monday after the massive backlash to it.

    Very well spoken, @thelivingroyale. Great post! I'm glad enough people are taking it seriously without going acting all panicky and irrational.
  • 007Blofeld007Blofeld In the freedom of the West.
    edited March 2020 Posts: 3,126
    This guy is is making it sound like the black plague and he says he has been right so far and this will go on for half a year possibly more they won't have a vaccine for over a year
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Yeah a vaccine will take more than a year (summer 2021 I guess) but it’s still possible to find some medicines that work quite good against the virus. In Italy now they are testing in the whole country a medicine against arthritis since two patients in IC in Naples reacted incredibly well after that treatment...
  • 007Blofeld007Blofeld In the freedom of the West.
    Posts: 3,126
    matt_u wrote: »
    Yeah a vaccine will take more than a year (summer 2021 I guess) but it’s still possible to find some medicines that work quite good against the virus. In Italy now they are testing in the whole country a medicine against arthritis since two patients in IC in Naples reacted incredibly well after that treatment...

    Like these https://oand.org/uncategory/top-ten-natural-anti-viral-agents/
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    Posts: 9,040
    j_w_pepper wrote: »
    Evidentally, Apple is reopening all stores in China:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/12/all-apple-stores-china-open-friday/
    China has allegedly been through the worst of it, and numbers of infections and deaths in China is steadily declining. A bit of good news at last?
    I am delighted to read this. If the Chinese migrant workers are once again free to buy overpriced cult gadgets they themselves produced at a slave-labour fraction of the costs, the coronavirus crisis must truly be over.

    Non-political thread, JW. Or does that only mean I can't mention DJT here (or there or anywhere?) ;)

    I'm merely questioning what seems to be the tendency of seeing the crisis mainly under economic aspects while people are still perishing all over the place. The fate of places like Apple stores in China is completely irrelevant, and to worry about them is cynical. I also find the Dow Jones and Dax and Whathaveyou totally secondary at this time.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,183
    We're in mild isolation now. Schools remain open but actual class sessions have been suspended. So, kids who cannot be put under supervision at home (e.g. both parents are doctors currently working their butts off in hospitals) can still come to school and some of us, teachers, will be there to keep them company. Most kids are at home, though. We are encouraged to use digital platforms to provide them with assignments and whatnot. In a way, school must go on, except not physically in the actual school building anymore. This chemistry teacher has to do without his lab... and that's a bummer. :(

    Meanwhile, a Dutch medical team may have found an effective antiviral substance and is currently waiting for confirmation from the higher pharmaceutical echelons. After that, a pharmaceutical company can, hopefully at not too high a cost, begin mass-producing the stuff. For the record, this isn't a vaccine we're talking about here, but it might actually stop the infection, effectively saving the lives of the weaker among the infected. They're working around the clock, and if this thing proves effective, we might get it relatively soon (as compared to an actual vaccine). I'd say that's some good news.
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