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This is indeed the best solution, provided the virus doesn't leave any significant consequences.
Regarding that, an antibody test conducted in the German city of Gangelt, a place hit very hard by Covid-19, showed that 15% of inhabitants already had the virus, and that the death rate is 0.37%.
I think this could provide the important knowledge for the near future.
Here's the link, but the website has a limited number of free articles so I will paste the full article here:
This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 – the virus which causes Covid-19 – spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomised sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicentres of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two per cent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 per cent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected – whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 per cent of the town have been infected with the virus.
This number matters hugely because it tells us what we need to know in order to judge how deadly the virus is and also how easily it spreads. It tells us, ultimately, how useful the methods are that we are employing in order to combat the virus. As explained here before, the question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.
Two weeks ago, the latter published modelling claiming that up to half the UK population might already have been infected with the virus – a level of infection which would mean that lockdown may be the wrong approach, as we would already have achieved a state of herd immunity, preventing the further spread of the disease.
The Gangelt study does not provide support for the idea that half of the population of Britain, or any other country, has been infected with the virus. But for a town to have an infection rate of 15 per cent suggests that the virus had spread a lot further than many believed. Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial team, told the FT this week that he believes between three and five per cent of the UK population has already been infected.
Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 per cent, significantly below the 0.9 per cent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 per cent found in a revised study last week.
The 15 per cent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of Covid-19 boarded on 20 January and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on 3 February and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them – 17 per cent – had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 per cent – although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.
We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of Covid-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 per cent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.
Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population. But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?
The government has based its planning and policy for Covid-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 per cent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it applies to this virus. The sooner we have the results of more studies like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have and the sooner we will be able to plot a path out of lockdown.
The thing is that temporary measures implemented in "times of crisis" tend to be permamenent, or at the very least the threshold for bringing them back gets lowered.
Spain has recorded 510 deaths yesterday, well below the figures of the 9th. This marks their first day below 600 deaths since March 23rd.
Belgium, however, has overtaken China's total death-toll, with 3,346 fatalities. They join Italy, the USA, Spain, France, the UK and Iran as the 7 countries (so far) who have had more deaths than China.
The numbers are somewhat steady at the moment, suggesting the peak of the curve is beginning to show itself.
True, but I'm willing to accept a certain loss of "privacy" if it serves a higher purpose, especially when it's about digital apps anonymously monitoring and mapping out the spread of the infection. Still a far smaller attack on our privacy than what many people do to themselves via foolsbook.
I’m all for google and Apple introducing tracking on mobile devices to enable us to identify and isolate potential cases. This is technology and science in action. We need our governments to make it very clear that harnessing any data beyond this purpose in absolutely prohibited and would carry fines high enough to make even Apple wince.
Correct. I'm not willing to go with the slippery-slope argument here. Temporarily yielding a small portion of our many liberties, rights and whatnot isn't the same as submitting ourselves willingly to some form of dictatorship, fascism or whatever. A crisis as evident as this one requires that we all make a few sacrifices which, by the way, pale in comparison to losing loved ones or prolonging the situation beyond the unavoidable. Frankly, a simple tracking system doesn't strike me as particularly threatening. It's not like step number two is that we're all taken away to some labour camp. Mapping out infection densities doesn't mean that some parts of the country will forever carry a stigma. Let's keep in mind that, with a little help from us all, this will all go away at some point. Any further (ab)use of certain measures would then be fought by the very democratic systems that are still, or so I like to believe, in near-perfect operation.
Tracking apps & drones are unacceptable. As is giving an elderly couple a ticket of 500 euros just because they were resting for five minutes on a bench.
Meanwhile, Belgium will finally be making their own mouth masks.
Glad I don t live there.
This one is from Italy:
You're welcome.
Today the great Andrea Bocelli - by invitation of the City and of the Duomo cathedral of my beloved Milan - will give a solo performance representing a message of love, healing and hope to Italy and the world. You can watch live at 10am LA, 1pm NYC, 6pm UK, 7pm CET with a steaming from his YouTube channel.
Isn't that Sophia Loren's apartment from De Sica's Ieri Oggi Domani? One of my favourite films.
Yes it definitely looks like the same spot. Perhaps the lower balcony on the right of the guitarist.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
100 deaths reached on January 27th (18 days later).
500 deaths reached on February 5th (9 days later).
1,000 deaths reached on February 10th (5 days later).
5,000 deaths reached on March 13th (32 days later).
10,000 deaths reached on March 19th (6 days later).
15,000 deaths reached on March 23rd (4 days later).
20,000 deaths reached on March 25th (2 days later).
25,000 deaths reached on March 27th (2 days later).
30,000 deaths reached on March 28th (1 day later).
35,000 deaths reached on March 30th (2 days later).
40,000 deaths reached on March 31st (1 day later).
45,000 deaths reached on April 1st (1 day later).
50,000 deaths reached on April 2nd (1 day later).
60,000 deaths reached on April 4th (2 days later).
70,000 deaths reached on April 6th (2 days later).
80,000 deaths reached on April 7th (1 day later).
90,000 deaths reached on April 9th (2 days later).
100,000 deaths reached on April 10th (1 day later).
110,000 deaths reached on April 12th (2 days later).
@matt_u You will be glad to hear: Italy's daily death-toll has dropped to 431 today (compared to 631 on Saturday. This marks Italy's first day below 500 deaths since March 19th.
Yep, thanks. As for now the only concern comes from Milan, speaking about new cases. Numbers are still oscillating a bit. Fingers crossed.
I'm a bit late to respond, but I am in 100% agreement with this. I just can't grasp why some people are still being 'creative' with restrictions. I just can't.
It's because "the rules don't apply to me" is a very popular attitude in these modern times. Hopefully soon that attitude will be replaced by a "we're all in this together" ethos & people will get serious about complying with the restrictions.
Idiots.
What a bonehead