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No Time to Die - Awards Chances
The announcement of an impending trailer for NTTD and the news of Tenet’s box office success, has got me really thinking that NTTD may actually be released this year(!). Maybe this is a foolish hope, as it was only in June we were discussing a delay into summer of 2021. However…it’s starting to feel real, though I won’t allow myself to believe it till it happens.
Nevertheless, I’m curious what we think of Bond’s chances of success on the Award circuit in 2021 (if the Oscars and Baftas go ahead). We could be looking at a historically weak year, where streaming films compete VOD titles. In this respect, NTTD could crack through…especially if it’s good. Also, Award voters have become more accepting of franchise and blockbuster films (see Black Panther, Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody) so something will make the list. I would say Tenet had a shout (but that film is garbage), so it's between Bond, Wonder Woman and Dune currently.
I think the following are in play at the Oscars and the Baftas:
- Best Film (SF was considered a legit contender in 2013 and if that film or CR was to come out now, I think it would get the nod.
- Best Actor for Daniel Craig (It’s his final appearance in the role and is said to be ‘emotional’)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (Big love for Phoebe Waller-Bridge in the industry. under the academy rules, it would be considered an 'adapted' screenplay as it's a sequel. i think this could happen as Logan got a nod in the same category. But that was a very good film.)
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Cinematography
- Best Score
- Best Sound
- Best Original Song (All but a shoe-in)
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Comments
I think the technical categories will certainly be where the film places highly. That being said, I imagine Tenet will likely nab Visual Effects and Cinematography. Possibly also Editing.
I agree that Eilish is a shoe in for song, and I think Zimmer is a good bet for Best Score. The film will be in with a shout for the sound nominations; mixing and editing.
As for the top two.....
Who knows?
I think the 5 to be nominated there will be Dune, News of the World, Nomadland, Hillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
Phoebe Waller-Bridge is very well loved in the industry but the script would have to be unbelievably good for an action blockbuster to be considered by the academy.
As for adapted screenplay I think it is because it is use of pre-existing characters (?)
I believe it's because it is a sequel. The only Bond film that could ever qualify for an original screenplay would have been DN, providing the novel didn't exist. From FRWL to NTTD (and beyond) will always only qualify for adapted screenplay on the basis of being sequels to the original Bond film.
Yes, you're quite right here @DaltonCraig007.
I suppose this is the essence of the point that I'm trying to make. Back in 2006, I don't think a film like Black Panther would have been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. However, there seems to be a precedent emerging that popular films and franchise movies can get serious consideration They may not necessarily 'win', but they won't be dismissed quite so easily when it comes to nominations.
I also agree with you that Craig should have been nominated for CR. In fact, he was nominated for a BAFTA that year. I genuinely believe if CR was coming out this year, that Craig would get nominated.
In this respect, there aren't any big names contenders in the mix this year. I think Adam Driver and Gary Oldman may be the biggest stars in the mix. Therefore, a big tentpole actor could sneak in...Especially as the big studio films are the closest we'll get to 'cinema' this year (i.e; anything not released on streaming or VOD). In this respect, Craig's biggest competition may be Timothee Chalamet in Dune. In fact, Dune is probably the blockbuster in pole position for Award consideration in 2021.
Agreed. A phenomenal performance. Green was also criminally overlooked, I think.
Quality of the film aside, the 50th anniversary hype behind it and it being the most successful 007 film ever commercially, it had:
Oscar winning director
Multiple oscar nominated cinematographer
Multiple oscar nominated composer
A knockout performance from oscar winner Bardem
A knockout performance from oscar winner Dench (in a leading female role too)
Multiple oscar nominated screenwriter.
The academy have more awareness of those people and the projects they work on. Hence I think if any film were to have done it, it would be SF.
I don't think it mitigates it's chances entirely. However, Billie Eilish is gonna have a hard time making her 'original song', which she performed at the Brit Awards in 2020, seem fresh at the Oscars in 2022. Two whole years later.
I wouldn't rule it out, but I think Billie's Oscar hopes are somewhat dashed. Furthermore, she was NTTD's dead cert.
Possibly the Academy could change or bend the eligibility requirements for the upcoming Oscars and push the current February 28 date to the end of March/beginning of April 2021. Alternatively, there may be a clever way around the rules to get NTTD to qualify for the next Oscars. If they did, they'd guarantee Billie Eilish performing for the telecast. Which would help with their ratings.
I suppose these are probably questions that the marketing teams and award campaigners at MGM/Uni are working on this Monday. But it does seem like a shame. Obviously, box-office comes before awards prestige when it comes to 007.