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My bet is 820 - 850 mill.
I think, it will recover from TL and has 4 weeks to make good business until Hobbit arrives. Lets see, if it gets ANY wortwhile awards from whatever commitee, which would again push it. I am almost sure, there will be some Baftas, others and even Oscars of some kind.
Yes I remember that. You can have that one. I was referring to the two points I'd made after that sentence though.
How is it doing compared to it in other countries? That's what matters.
There are all sorts of awards. It ranks high on critics choice awards and I don't know what else aside from Oscar. But in one was or another it WILL make a splash with some awards and that will keep the film in peoples minds, which is way more important then any award.
Best picture at Oscar is tricky, but they are going for it and its not impossible. Bardem and Dench might get an Oscar nod. Daniel hopefully at least another Bafta nod, even though he will probably loose out again -this time to DDay Lewis.
Well, according to BoxOfficeMojo, after 3 weeks at best, Skyfall has done more than TDKR's entire run (and often significantly more) already in :
Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia & CIS, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates and UK obviously. More with later dates are already close to it, too many to list.
Maybe you could use TKDR to make your estimates for the final run. If we consider markets in which Skyfall has not yet been released, TDKR did :
in Australia+New Zealand, 49 M$
in China, 52 M$
in Japan, 24 M$
in South Africa, 2 M$
So that makes 127M$ for TDKR in markets where Skyfall has currently O$. And it seems that in many, many places except the USA (quite the opposite of your original statement), Skyfall will do in the end more than TDKR. And seemingly 20/30% more at least...
Here it is 'Suivez_ce_parachute'. Another update of the 'Please compare comparable franchises thoughtfully'-list. 'Skyfall' passes 'Quantum Of Solace' and moves up to 8th place! *UPDATED NOVEMBER 17TH 2012*:
01) $1,076,999,996 -- 'The Dark Knight Rises' (2012)
domestic (US) gross: $446,861,181 - 41.5%
foreign (rest) gross: $630,800,000 - 58.5%
02) $1,003,045,358 -- 'The Dark Knight' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $534,858,444 - 53.2%
foreign (rest) gross: $469,700,000 - 46.8%
03) $825,532,764 -- 'Inception' (2010)
domestic (US) gross: $292,576,195 - 35.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $532,956,569 - 64.6%
04) $786,636,033 -- 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $317,101,119 - 40.3%
foreign (rest) gross: $469,534,914 - 59.7%
05) $694,713,380 -- 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol' (2011)
domestic (US) gross: $209,397,903 - 30.1%
foreign (rest) gross: $485,315,477 - 69.9%
06) $624,386,746 -- 'Hancock' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $227,946,274 - 36.5%
foreign (rest) gross: $396,440,472 - 63.5%
07) $599,045,960 -- 'Casino Royale' (2006)
domestic (US) gross: $167,445,960 - 28.0%
foreign (rest) gross: $431,600,000 - 72.0%
08) $586,537,000 -- 'SKYFALL' (2012, AFTER 21 DAYS IN CINEMAS)
DOMESTIC (US) GROSS: $132,187,000 - 22.5%
FOREIGN (REST) GROSS: $454,350,000 - 77.5%
09) $586,090,727 -- 'Quantum Of Solace' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $168,368,427 - 28.7%
foreign (rest) gross: $417,722,300 - 71.3%
10) $546,388,105 -- 'Mission: Impossible II' (2000)
domestic (US) gross: $215,409,889 - 39.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $330,978,216 - 60.6%
11) $543,848,418 -- 'Sherlock Holmes II: A Game Of Shadows' (2011)
domestic (US) gross: $186,848,418 - 34.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $357,000,000 - 65.6%
12) $524,028,679 -- 'Sherlock Holmes I' (2009)
domestic (US) gross: $209,028,679 - 39.9%
foreign (rest) gross: $315,000,000 - 60.1%
13) $478,207,520 -- 'Mr. And Mrs. Smith' (2005)
domestic (US) gross: $186,336,279 - 39.0%
foreign (rest) gross: $291,871,241 - 61.0%
14) $442,824,138 -- 'The Bourne Ultimatum' (2007)
domestic (US) gross: $227,471,070 - 51.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $215,353,068 - 48.6%
15) $431,971,116 -- 'Die Another Day' (2002)
domestic (US) gross: $160,942,139 - 37.3%
foreign (rest) gross: $271,028,977 - 62.7%
16) $397,850,012 -- 'Mission: Impossible III' (2006)
17) $383,531,464 -- 'Live Free Or Die Hard' (2007)
18) $372,710,015 -- 'Batman Begins' (2005)
19) $348,338,000 -- 'Taken 2' (2012)
20) $293,503,354 -- 'Salt' (2010)
21) $288,500,217 -- 'The Bourne Supremacy' (2004)
22) $285,444,603 -- 'Lethal Weapon 4' (1998)
23) $277,448,382 -- 'xXx' (2002)
24) $270,903,870 -- 'The Bourne Legacy' (2012)
25) $226,830,568 -- 'Taken' (2009)
26) $214,034,224 -- 'The Bourne Identity' (2002)
27) $207,884,401 -- 'Safe House' (2012)
28) $199,006,387 -- 'Red' (2010)
29) $177,238,796 -- 'The A-Team' (2010)
30) $118,063,304 -- 'The Saint' (1997)
31) $99,965,792 -- 'Hitman' (2007)
32) $80,630,608 -- 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' (2011)
33) $71,022,693 -- 'xXx: State Of The Union' (2005)
34) $70,692,101 -- 'Ronin' (1998)
35) $60,965,854 -- 'Colombiana' (2011)
36) $60,161,391 -- 'The International' (2009)
37) $52,826,594 -- 'From Paris With Love' (2010)
38) $50,732,945 -- 'I Spy' (2002)
39) $16,933,380 -- 'The Heir Apparent: Largo Winch' (2011)
Besides looking to the figures 'TDK' and 'TDKR' brought in, I think it's valid to start comparing 'Skyfall's gross with 'Inception's total worldwide gross. And 'Inception' was a massive success as well.
May I remind many posters in here with their inital way-too-safe predictions? Before 'Skyfall' premiered I heard figures like $600 million to $650 million worldwide gross.
Similarly, I wonder if those who said that SF would have a hard time to reach 600M$ Internationally (ie : worldwide except US), still think the same. There were quite some arrogant comment on that matter...
Yes, SF may end doing Internationally more than QOS worldwide ! (China's result could be critical, and is impossible to predict I'm afraid).
SF was an unexpected hit in many places.. Here in France, it may end #2 behind Ice Age 4. Beating TDKR or Avengers by a very large margin. "Usually", here Bond movies recently were rather "just" top 10 movies...
Thanks for pointing ths out. Quite impressive.
In 2nd place, Eon Productions/MGM/Sony Pictures’ James Bond #23 actioner Skyfall looks down 52% from its big opening a week ago for a $42M second weekend. It took a bigger hit (-60%) on Friday than the studios anticipated but bounced back Saturday to bring its North American cume to about $162M in just its first 10 days of release.
That means around $29,812,892 for both Saturday and Sunday. That means roughly $18 million on Saturday and $12 million on Sunday.
I said $600M internationally. Get your facts straight.
A very informative list. Thank you. That tells us all we need to know.
Skyfall is now the second highest grossing movie of all time.
It is locked to become the highest grossing movie of all time in the next few weeks.
It is on course to be the first movie to crack 100 million pounds in the UK.
It looks likely to DOUBLE the gross of Quantum of Solace!
Domestic: $161,337,000 - 24.1%
Foreign: $507,900,000 - 75.9%
= Worldwide: $669,237,000
1. $1,037,291,060.32 - Thunderball
2. $932,346,267.74 - Goldfinger
3. $843,280,463.96 - Live And Let Die
4. $773,204,227.54 - You Only Live Twice
5. $707,967,950.50 - The Spy Who Loved Me
6. $682,098,608.86 - Casino Royale
7. $670,341,133.13 - Moonraker
8. $669,237,000.00 - Skyfall
9. $662,795,358.02 - Diamonds Are Forever
10. $629,928,504.77 - Quantum Of Solace
11. $596,667,068.63 - From Russia With Love
12. $555,648,360.42 - Die Another Day
13. $534,777,984.42 - GoldenEye
14. $517,040,163.49 - On Her Majesty's Secret Service
15. $502,584,334.85 - The World Is Not Enough
16. $497,181,376.24 - For Your Eyes Only
17. $480,131,415.66 - Tomorrow Never Dies
18. $458,120,146.04 - The Man With The Golden Gun
19. $456,431,419.48 - Dr. No
20. $435,630,647.59 - Octopussy
21. $389,480,795.77 - The Living Daylights
22. $339,368,258.36 - A View To A Kill
23. $291,436,616.45 - Licence To Kill
01) $1,076,999,996 -- 'The Dark Knight Rises' (2012)
domestic (US) gross: $446,861,181 - 41.5%
foreign (rest) gross: $630,800,000 - 58.5%
02) $1,003,045,358 -- 'The Dark Knight' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $534,858,444 - 53.2%
foreign (rest) gross: $469,700,000 - 46.8%
03) $825,532,764 -- 'Inception' (2010)
domestic (US) gross: $292,576,195 - 35.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $532,956,569 - 64.6%
04) $786,636,033 -- 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $317,101,119 - 40.3%
foreign (rest) gross: $469,534,914 - 59.7%
05) $694,713,380 -- 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol' (2011)
domestic (US) gross: $209,397,903 - 30.1%
foreign (rest) gross: $485,315,477 - 69.9%
06) $669,237,000 -- 'SKYFALL' (2012, AFTER 22 DAYS IN CINEMAS WORLDWIDE)
DOMESTIC (US) GROSS: $161,337,000 - 24.1%
FOREIGN (REST) GROSS: $507,900,000 - 75.9%
07) $624,386,746 -- 'Hancock' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $227,946,274 - 36.5%
foreign (rest) gross: $396,440,472 - 63.5%
08) $599,045,960 -- 'Casino Royale' (2006)
domestic (US) gross: $167,445,960 - 28.0%
foreign (rest) gross: $431,600,000 - 72.0%
09) $586,090,727 -- 'Quantum Of Solace' (2008)
domestic (US) gross: $168,368,427 - 28.7%
foreign (rest) gross: $417,722,300 - 71.3%
10) $546,388,105 -- 'Mission: Impossible II' (2000)
domestic (US) gross: $215,409,889 - 39.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $330,978,216 - 60.6%
11) $543,848,418 -- 'Sherlock Holmes II: A Game Of Shadows' (2011)
domestic (US) gross: $186,848,418 - 34.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $357,000,000 - 65.6%
12) $524,028,679 -- 'Sherlock Holmes I' (2009)
domestic (US) gross: $209,028,679 - 39.9%
foreign (rest) gross: $315,000,000 - 60.1%
13) $478,207,520 -- 'Mr. And Mrs. Smith' (2005)
domestic (US) gross: $186,336,279 - 39.0%
foreign (rest) gross: $291,871,241 - 61.0%
14) $442,824,138 -- 'The Bourne Ultimatum' (2007)
domestic (US) gross: $227,471,070 - 51.4%
foreign (rest) gross: $215,353,068 - 48.6%
15) $431,971,116 -- 'Die Another Day' (2002)
domestic (US) gross: $160,942,139 - 37.3%
foreign (rest) gross: $271,028,977 - 62.7%
16) $397,850,012 -- 'Mission: Impossible III' (2006)
17) $383,531,464 -- 'Live Free Or Die Hard' (2007)
18) $372,710,015 -- 'Batman Begins' (2005)
19) $351,675,000 -- 'Taken 2' (2012)
20) $293,503,354 -- 'Salt' (2010)
21) $288,500,217 -- 'The Bourne Supremacy' (2004)
22) $285,444,603 -- 'Lethal Weapon 4' (1998)
23) $277,448,382 -- 'xXx' (2002)
24) $274,503,870 -- 'The Bourne Legacy' (2012)
25) $226,830,568 -- 'Taken' (2009)
26) $214,034,224 -- 'The Bourne Identity' (2002)
27) $207,884,401 -- 'Safe House' (2012)
28) $199,006,387 -- 'Red' (2010)
29) $177,238,796 -- 'The A-Team' (2010)
30) $118,063,304 -- 'The Saint' (1997)
31) $99,965,792 -- 'Hitman' (2007)
32) $80,630,608 -- 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' (2011)
33) $71,022,693 -- 'xXx: State Of The Union' (2005)
34) $70,692,101 -- 'Ronin' (1998)
35) $60,965,854 -- 'Colombiana' (2011)
36) $60,161,391 -- 'The International' (2009)
37) $52,826,594 -- 'From Paris With Love' (2010)
38) $50,732,945 -- 'I Spy' (2002)
39) $16,933,380 -- 'The Heir Apparent: Largo Winch' (2011)
Great to see what 'Skyfall' is doing in the USA. But what impresses me most is how much 'Skyfall' keeps soaring in all other markets. From my list, overseas 'Skyfall' has already beaten 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol', 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' andddd indeed now.....''The Dark Knight'! And it is close to beat 'Inception' as well. That is impressive.
Regardless of what's happening in the USA, I keep standing with my same prediction: In the end 'Skyfall' will soar $900,000,000 worldwide. The upcoming weeks will indeed be tougher, but another $150 million excluding USA is still possible.
Come on, in many, many parts of the world outside the USA, this is not the usual success, but it's between a big success and a phenomenom. No one saw this coming, and that includes you... When you wrote there was "NO WAY" it would beat TDKR except in the UK, it was not a minor point ; you claimed to be able to predict what would happen in dozens of foreign markets :)
Yes, this is a case when, people who haven't got a clue about box office business but are over-optimistic, turns out to be closer to the truth than "experts" who think their knowledge of the past gives them powers to guess the future. It should remind to be less arrogant when predicting the future...
For instance, lets consider China : will it do 20 M$ because of piracy ? or 100 M$ because of big success ? I think no one has a clue... So discussing arrogantly that worlwide 800M$ is more likely than 900M$ is quite pointless I think.
As for as Oscars go, I see Deakins in a strong running for Cinematography. But, why doesn't Adele seem almost guaranteed? A good number of people loved her song, and the Oscars always seem to struggle with finding nominations for this category.
Mendes gave Logan the idea for Bond 24, I think. I definitely read it somewhere.
Another hope comes from the fact, that him and DC are close friends and hopefully, he can talk him into it again