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Will the 50 year jubilee help pushing the boxoffice of 'SkyFall' to a gross 900 million worldwide?

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  • Suivez_ce_parachuteSuivez_ce_parachute
    edited December 2012 Posts: 2,015
    doubleoego wrote:
    Going by extrapolation alone,
    Never make an extrapolation before knowing the result :)
    For instance, let's make a 7 year by 7 year extrapolation in order to have longer trend, and more reliable computations less sensitive to short term effects :
    About 7 years ago, CR did 600 M$
    About 14 years ago, TWINE did 350M$.
    About 21 years ago, LTK did 150M$.

    The delta between 14 and 21 is then +200M$, and between 14 and 7 is then +250M$. So the next delta should be +300M$

    Extrapolation then tells us the logical result for SF is 900M$ :)

    (PS : obviously the reasoning is after the fact and flawed on so many levels, but all the figures are true !)


  • jetsetwillyjetsetwilly
    Posts: 3,327
    It looks like I am the only one here who predicted correct with SF at the BO then.....?
  • thelivingroyalethelivingroyale
    Posts: 12,837
    TheWizardOfIce wrote:
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    Will the 50 year jubilee help pushing the boxoffice of 'SkyFall' to a gross 900 million worldwide? Well, it just did.

    Err no. All you've done there is list SFs box office take. You dont offer any evidence that its down to the 50th. Could be just that its a good film, good reviews or the Olympics.

    I don't think the 50th helped because not many people actually know it's the 50th. I think it was more to do with all the reviews and the olympics more than anything else.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited December 2012 Posts: 11,119
    jetsetwilly wrote:
    It looks like I am the only one here who predicted correct with SF at the BO then.....?

    No, me too ;-).

    As I mentioned many times before, I think it's a combination of factors that resulted in the current worldwide box office figures for 'Skyfall':
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    jetsetwilly wrote:
    Samuel001 wrote:
    Before the release? If so, you should have posted in G_G's thread. $599M vs $1B is quite the leap.
    I know. I wasn't really posting much on this forum a while ago, but I was predicting this could beat TB on the DCINB forum (much to their displeasure)....... ;)

    I was factoring in the `Big 4' run of events leading up to it - Olympics scene, Bond 50, positive reviews and Adele's song.

    These were the deciding factors for me. If all 4 came off properly, I knew we had a winner on our hands, and one by one my Big 4 was getting ticked off.

    People thought I was crazy a few months ago, now I'm being proved right. Oscar nominations would be the icing on the cake.

    I saw it already coming when Babs and Michael managed to hire Sam Mendes, Roger Deakins, Javier Bardem and Ralph Fiennes. Getting such a wealth of Oscar potential on board did ring a bell in my head. From that moment onwards I thought....'Skyfall' will be a 'Thunderball-esque' Bond film money-wise and will go compete with the latest two Batman flicks from Christopher Nolan quality-wise.

    Summarizing all the factors:
    --> Biggest Oscar-heavy starcast ever in Bond history.
    --> Biggest Oscar-heavy production crew in Bond history.
    --> Memorable Bond villain (Javier Bardem).
    --> 50 year Bond jubilee.
    --> Olympics opening ceremony.
    --> Adele's hit impact with her song 'Skyfall'.
    --> 5th of October global 'Bond Day'.
    --> Possibility of several Oscar nominations.
    --> Raving reviews on internet (Metacritic, IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes).
    --> Raving reviews from newspapers.

    Kind of logical that this is the best 'free promotion' on top of the usual Bond marketing campaign you can have. And it is therefore logical that 'Skyfall' is doing so extremely well at the worldwide box office.

    *PS: I type this while listening to Adele's 'Skyfall'*

  • TheWizardOfIceTheWizardOfIce 'One of the Internet's more toxic individuals'
    edited December 2012 Posts: 9,117
    thelivingroyale wrote:
    TheWizardOfIce wrote:
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    Will the 50 year jubilee help pushing the boxoffice of 'SkyFall' to a gross 900 million worldwide? Well, it just did.

    Err no. All you've done there is list SFs box office take. You dont offer any evidence that its down to the 50th. Could be just that its a good film, good reviews or the Olympics.

    I don't think the 50th helped because not many people actually know it's the 50th. I think it was more to do with all the reviews and the olympics more than anything else.

    I think you're spot on there. If you asked half the people who have seen it about the 50th before they went in I would conservatively guess that about 70% would have no idea about it. And probably lots of them wouldn't know at the end either as quite a few start walking out during the GB and miss the 50th logo.

    The Olympics has had a far bigger effect on the box office than the 50th. Probably the best advert for a film ever considering most of the world was watching.

    Whereas the 50th consisted of Richard Kiel on The One Show and Soccer Satrurday and a very small assortment of uninspired cash in products.

    Interesting to speculate that if the efforts for the 50th had been better if this would have boosted the box office even further.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited December 2012 Posts: 11,119
    TheWizardOfIce wrote:
    thelivingroyale wrote:
    TheWizardOfIce wrote:
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    Will the 50 year jubilee help pushing the boxoffice of 'SkyFall' to a gross 900 million worldwide? Well, it just did.

    Err no. All you've done there is list SFs box office take. You dont offer any evidence that its down to the 50th. Could be just that its a good film, good reviews or the Olympics.

    I don't think the 50th helped because not many people actually know it's the 50th. I think it was more to do with all the reviews and the olympics more than anything else.

    I think you're spot on there. If you asked half the people who have seen it about the 50th before they went in I would conservatively guess that about 70% would have no idea about it. And probably lots of them wouldn't know at the end either as quite a few start walking out during the GB and miss the 50th logo.

    The Olympics has had a far bigger effect on the box office than the 50th. Probably the best advert for a film ever considering most of the world was watching.

    Whereas the 50th consisted of Richard Kiel on The One Show and Soccer Satrurday and a very small assortment of uninspired cash in products.

    Interesting to speculate that if the efforts for the 50th had been better if this would have boosted the box office even further.

    As I mentioned many times before, I think it's a combination of factors that resulted in the current worldwide box office figures for 'Skyfall':
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    jetsetwilly wrote:
    Samuel001 wrote:
    Before the release? If so, you should have posted in G_G's thread. $599M vs $1B is quite the leap.
    I know. I wasn't really posting much on this forum a while ago, but I was predicting this could beat TB on the DCINB forum (much to their displeasure)....... ;)

    I was factoring in the `Big 4' run of events leading up to it - Olympics scene, Bond 50, positive reviews and Adele's song.

    These were the deciding factors for me. If all 4 came off properly, I knew we had a winner on our hands, and one by one my Big 4 was getting ticked off.

    People thought I was crazy a few months ago, now I'm being proved right. Oscar nominations would be the icing on the cake.

    I saw it already coming when Babs and Michael managed to hire Sam Mendes, Roger Deakins, Javier Bardem and Ralph Fiennes. Getting such a wealth of Oscar potential on board did ring a bell in my head. From that moment onwards I thought....'Skyfall' will be a 'Thunderball-esque' Bond film money-wise and will go compete with the latest two Batman flicks from Christopher Nolan quality-wise.

    Summarizing all the factors:
    --> Biggest Oscar-heavy starcast ever in Bond history.
    --> Biggest Oscar-heavy production crew in Bond history.
    --> Memorable Bond villain (Javier Bardem).
    --> 50 year Bond jubilee.
    --> Olympics opening ceremony.
    --> Adele's hit impact with her song 'Skyfall'.
    --> 5th of October global 'Bond Day'.
    --> Possibility of several Oscar nominations.
    --> Raving reviews on internet (Metacritic, IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes).
    --> Raving reviews from newspapers.
    Kind of logical that this is the best 'free promotion' on top of the usual Bond marketing campaign you can have. And it is therefore logical that 'Skyfall' is doing so extremely well at the worldwide box office.

    *PS: I type this while listening to Adele's 'Skyfall'*

  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited December 2012 Posts: 11,119
    BoxOfficeMojo today (12.10.2012):

    "If it's not clear enough already, Skyfall is easily one of the biggest box office successes of 2012. It's now on pace to wind up with around $290 million, which is over $120 million more than Quantum of Solace's previous Bond record ($168.4 million).
    This is a great example of strong franchise management:
    --> by bringing in a quality director (Sam Mendes)
    --> and allowing plenty of time for script rewrites (due in no small part to MGM's bankruptcy issues),
    --> the end product wound up delighting audiences in such a way that word-of-mouth was and continues to be very enthusiastic."
  • thelivingroyalethelivingroyale
    Posts: 12,837
    I mostly agree with your list @Gustav, but I'd take off Bond day and the 50th anniversary. I don't think they really helped.
  • RC7RC7
    Posts: 10,512
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    BoxOfficeMojo today (12.10.2012):
    --> and allowing plenty of time for script rewrites (due in no small part to MGM's bankruptcy issues)

    Debatable IMO. A lot of good scripts can be turned out in a very short space of time if you have the best writers. I think it should have been a lot better given the time.

  • GermanladyGermanlady
    Posts: 6,601
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    --> the end product wound up delighting audiences in such a way that word-of-mouth was and continues to be very enthusiastic."

    ..and that is based on what? Right - a well entertained, satisfied audience.

  • RC7RC7
    edited December 2012 Posts: 10,512
    .
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Well, these arguments are always debatable. These arguments can never be proven right or wrong. Fact is: All these arguments together attributed to the current box office success of 'Skyfall'. I personally think a name like 'Javier Bardem' kicked off some slight Bond buzz in the first place: "Sjee, Javier Bardem? Then Bond 23 must be good no?"
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    doubleoego wrote:
    SF making nearly a billion dollars? No way. First and foremost, it doesn't need to make that sort of money. It's 50 year history guarantees that additional Bond movies are never under threat of being made due to poor financial performance. Secondly, if SF made 900 million, then every subsequent Bond movie will most likely "under perform". As long as Bond can maintain a foothold in the 500-600million bracket it's all good. Anything more is just a bonus. Fact is, Bond movies making money is never an issue because they always do. It's the quality of the movies themselves we should all be concerned about. However, it is realistically possible that SF could make around 700 million.

    So cute to read this back ;;)
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