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http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/top-ten-anticipated-blockbusters-2015/2/
This will be more than offset by Euro weakness (watch the Euro next week for clues as Draghi will announce QE for Europe on Thursday and depending one what the ECB proposes the Euro will move accordingly).
I'm more interested in Asia, especially China. Business between US and China is thriving. The exchange rate history of 1 Chinese Yuan against US Dollars is way more interesting. It's more stable really, especially now. So "SPECTRE" could do very very nice things there. If not delayed, "SPECTRE" could well gross above $120 Million there
http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/35401/new-dates-ghost-dragon-jungle-hours
http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/35421/-in-the-heart-of-the-sea-delayed-nine-months
Good news for The Second Best Exotic Marigold (Judi Dench) Hotel who release date is 19/20 March in same weak as Cinderella (Assepoester) and Insurgent (Divergent 2), 2 weaks before Fast 7.
I saw it @PanchitoPistoles. $90.2 Million opening weekend (almost similar to "Skyfall"s opening weekend). Nobody saw thát coming. Not even me. The movie gets fairly good (not terrific, but fairly good) reviews. I have no idea how this happened. Perhaps because it was already on limited release for a couple of weeks. That can help. But moreover, it's a Clint Eastwood-movie. That name can do wonders (And so will the "brand name" of Sam Mendes for "SPECTRE"). Eastwood is truly loved as a director, like Nolan and Scorcese. So let's see if it can hold like that.
I actually think this is a very good sign for Bond and other non-sci-fi and non-fantasy movies. After "Taken 3" 's opening weekend of $40 Million with bad reviews and "American Sniper", 2015 is truly shaping up as a massive box office year already. With these results in mind I think it's not unthinkable that "SPECTRE" could do a $125 Million opening weekend. The title of this topic starts becoming reality ;-).
Yes, from December 25th till January 15th.....in only FOUR (big) theatres :-). And most importantly, it's opening weekend on nation wide release was....last weekend (3.555 theatres). So forgive me, but you can't put it thát black-and-white.
That surely did help a bit. But opening three weeks before on such a limited release (4 theatres only!), and then opening fully nationwide (last weekend) usually never result in such a insanely huge weekend turnover.
BoxOfficeMojo and BoxOffice.com see last weekend as "American Sniper" full opening weekend.
Remember, this has been done with "Mission: Impossible 4" as well. The first week/weekend it opened on a limited release as well (still, way more than 4 theatres: 425! Mainly IMAX). Then after 6 days it extended fully nationwide to 3,488 theatres. The 2nd weekend was then counted as "opening weekend".
So the case of "American Sniper" is very exceptional. Yes, it created some strong word-of-mouth. But its "opening weekend" of almost $90 Million is truly exceptional. Even BoxOfficeMojo was completely wrong with its weekend estimates last week. They guessed around $45 Million for last weekend.
BoxOfficeMojo says it has to do with the Martin Luther King weekend, director Clint Eastwood's brand strength (like Sam Mendes and Christopher Nolan) and the fact that it is a real "American Hero" story, based on real events: The man who saved countless lives with his gun.
Nah, don't believe so. The sole, big reason was: "Star Wars: 7". Everyone is frikkin' afraid of that film now :-). And everyone was already saying that the 25th of December might indeed be damaging for the box office gross of "M: I 5".
One other bit of news though, which is completely different.
Did people see what the hell Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" is doing? It had another massive weekend. In its 2nd weekend of nationwide release, "Sniper" scored an insane $65 Million. Pushing its domestic gross now to a whopping $201 Million, with a production budget of $59 Million!
I think this is truly wunderful news for non-sci-fi, non-fantasy, non-3d films. Only Christopher Nolan's "TDK"-trilogy and Sam Mendes' "Skyfall" were able to do that at the box office.
Also...."Taken 3" seems to be huge overseas. Its overseas gross is now already on $132 Million. It is en route to overtake both "Taken" and "Taken 2".
As I told many times: 2015 is already shaping up like an insane box office year for movies.
Blackhat was absolutely awful though. Michael Mann should be ashamed. There is one of his trademark shootout gunfights but that's it.
I have not seen American Sniper, but Bradley Cooper and patriotism might be filling the seats on that one.
RE: MI5: Sure, having this film, SP & SW7 in the mix at Christmas likely was too much. I'm glad they moved MI5 because I want it to be successful as well. We really don't know much about this film, so I'm even more excited to see what Cruise has up his sleeve this time. However, if the Euro goes to 1:1 with the $, which is what traders are predicting, I think some resetting of box office expectations may be necessary.
Only for European territories. It's most likely counteracted by business in China and perhaps Latin America as well. And....this off course counts for most of the films of 2015. Also, usually entertainment industry is slightly less prone to conjuctural changes and currency exchange rates than, let's say, the automotive industry or the finance sector.
1. The Revenant
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Last Days in the Desert
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Knight of Cups
So not only Action/Sci-Fi movies are to be watched. SPECTRE has lots of competition.
Oct 16 - Steven Spielberg/Tom Hanks cold war spy thriller
Nov 6 - Peanuts
Nov 13 - Friday the 13th
Nov 20 - Mockingjay II
So there are only 2 weeks until The Hunger Games will conquer the theatres, and SPECTRE has to be shown on smaller screens.
With the exception of Skyfall, a good example of a recent Bond film holding well is Casino Royale. It opened to a fairly modest $40 million in the States, but was able to hold long enough to reach a total of nearly $167.5 million. On the other hand, Quantum of Solace had an opening weekend of $67 million, up significantly from CR [which shows that people really liked CR]. Yet QOS ended with nearly the same American gross as CR. If audiences had liked Quantum it would have likely ended up with over $200 million in the States, but alas, everyone seemed to be finished with it fairly quickly. (Casino Royale had 18 weeks of theater play in the States, Quantum of Solace had half that.)
Concerning the American box office (where I hail from), SPECTRE will have some stiff competition from Hunger Games and (much later) Star Wars, but if SPECTRE is good and people hear good things about it, they will make time to see it eventually. An opening weekend north of $100 million is certainly not a long shot after Skyfall's hype, but holding in the subsequent weeks will be the true test. I feel that mentality holds true for other countries around the world as well.
The film has to be really good. If it is, I think one billion....even 1.2 billion is possible once again.
Well, with blockbusters, the marketing budget is in the same order of magnitude than the actual production budget (and with the leaks, we know some things about it...). An actual good film with a very poor marketing campain will probably never be a mega-hit. These days, you can't reach the billion dollar mark by being a sleeper hit, you have to cash-in a lot, fast. On the other hand, a good marketing campain can do wonder with a so-so movie. Alvin and the Chipmunks did more than Casino Royale in the US. Box office can't be wrong, yeah !
I think SF's international financial success owes a lot to Adele. A lot. I think any "analysis" of SF's success that does not mention her is just self-delusion.
Agreed and well said. Adele may have had an impact in raising awareness and getting the bums into the seats initially, but SF had tremendous repeat viewings and legs over a period of months in many territories and countries.
People genuinely were enthused about the movie and recommended it to their friends. That had a lot to do with why it grossed over $1bn, and nothing to do with the song.
I personally think SP is going to come in under $1bn due to currency issues which are presently unfavourable, as well as the crowded 2015 schedule. Between $900m and $1bn is my guess.
You keep forgetting: Chinaland :-). As I explained several times, there are no currency issues between China and the USA.
Moreover, the "youth novel" movies, which "Twilight" and "The Hunger Games" more or less are, have proven that they don't pose a threat to Bond films. Remember that one week after "Skyfall", "Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1" premiered.
Moreover, with "M:I 5" removed from the december premiere calendar, "SPECTRE" has a chance to have similar hold-over as "Skyfall"......for at least the first two weeks of December ("Star Wars" premieres December 18th).
True, MI5 out of the picture is going to help Bond, but I am pretty sure Bond is going to come out very strong this time. So it will drop off (% wise) much faster than the previous movies have. Bond is an event movie now.....it has joined the big boys.....so expect a very strong opening followed by a steeper drop off in weeks 2 & 3.
However, it will still hold much better in later weeks compared to other big blockbusters, because it skews to an older crowd who don't necessarily need to rush to the theatre on opening night.
The potential problem is 'repeat viewings'. If there is a lot of competition (which there is this year), there is less likely to be as many repeat viewings, because audiences have other movies that they can go and see for the first time instead.
RE: China - I hope you're right but as I've said before, Bond is not as action oriented as other franchises, which is what the Chinese audiences have proven they like and gravitate to.
Here, "Skyfall", the song, all over the radio for two or three months after the movie release, was then the only reminder Skyfall was out. It really was all over the radio. I could hear it several times in the markets... There was no more Daniel Craig on TV a few days after Skyfall was released. In order to obtain almost 7 millions French going to see the movie, it means you have to have 100.000 people still going to see even in the 10th week after the release, when the marketing budget is spent.
They spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the marking for blockbuster, the same magnitude as the actual production. A hit song can't be a minor element in the marketing of a movie.
If SPECTRE does less than SF at the BO but turns out to be judged better by many, I hope on this forum we'll read less result-oriented comments about the relevance of BO figures...
2006 : 1$ = 8 Yuan
2008 : 1$ = 7 Yuan
2013 : 1$ = 6 Yuan
Also the Chinese governement can make a break a movie's BO. Now, what was the point of telling us with all the ethical stuff about the Sony leaks that Sony was "something to kill" for China and NK, if now it's to tell us that Sony movies will most probably have no problems there ?
Remember Clooney found that no one in Hollywood would sign his call to support Sony. Here's an hint why.