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I don't think SW can be underestimated. EP:1 was arguably one of the most derided sequels/prequels of all time, yet still made more money at the UK Box Office than CR, which was critically lauded. If SW:7 is even half-good it will make big money. Not to say SP won't, we brits love Bond, but SW could easily swallow viewers if it gets good word of mouth.
Hence why Sony wants to cash in up-front. Off course strong holdover is key to any success of Bond films, but this time around I expect a weekend opener that is so big as compared to "Skyfall", that certain holdover problems around mid december have been taken into account. Meaning that SP will still gross more than SF.
I'm not worried about "Star Wars" and "Hunger Games". As back in 2012 the premieres of "Twilight" and "The Hobbit" did not really affect the box office gross for SF. Not at all really....
I'll be honest, I have no professional insight re. Box Office, just observation and conjecture. I just think the whole thing is relatively unpredictable and I believe SW is enormous next to Twilight and the Hobbit. Looking at the stats just now, the 2nd biggest UK opening of all time is Harry Potter: and the Order of the Phoenix, which ended up as the 22nd of all time. Where QoS was the 17th biggest opening, but is above Order of the Phoenix in the all time, at 20th. If SP gets average word of mouth and SW good, it's game over. On the flip side, if SP gets good and SW average it's a different story. I just think it's too hard to call until the films are out there.
But off course you're right about SW. And I'll add to that it won't just cross the $1 Billion barrier, but will easily sail past the $2 Billion. Obviously SW will be the biggest box office success of the year 2015. It has even a shot at bringing down "Titanic" to 3rd spot on this list: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
I do think this will have an effect on the longevity, the holdover of SP during the month of December (only as of December 18th though, as that's the premiere date of SW). But because of that I think "Hunger Games" will actually suffer slightly more from this. Both Hunger Games and SW appeal to similar kind of audiences. What I'm interested at is how SP holds after SW premiered. Can it stay in the TOP 3? That would be great.
Right now I'm also following the box office returns from "Furious 7". The TOP 2 of 2015 will most likely be SW and Avengers 2. But who will get 3rd place? That could be a very interesting race between "Furious 7", "SPECTRE", "Minions" and "Hunger Games"
Yes, it'll be interesting to see how it holds up against SW. I hope the UK and Europe will do their best! Can't see the US yielding, they love homegrown.
I'm more interested to see what "SPECTRE" will do in China, United States and Mexico. I think those are the key markets for "SPECTRE"s possible box office success. Off course the Euro-less United Kingdom will also be a big market.
The top 3 markets for "Skyfall" were the US, UK and Germany, with France coming in 4th.
I believe it will be the same with SPECTRE, unless it sails above $100 million in China.
Indeed, these were the TOP 3 markets for "Skyfall" back in 2012:
#01, $ 304 Million: USA (OK result)
#02, $ 161 Million: UK (astonishing result!)
#03, $ 085 Million: Germany (astonishing result!)
And the rest:
#04, $ 060 Million: France (astonishing result!)
#05, $ 059 Million: China (average result)
#06, $ 050 Million: Australia (good result)
#07, $ 032 Million: Japan (OK result)
#08, $ 025 Million: The Netherlands (astonishing result!)
~
#12, $ 016 Million: South-Korea (average result)
~
#14, $ 014 Million: Brazil (disappointing result)
~
#20, $ 009 Million: Mexico (disappointing result)
But I'm fairly confident that the "mix" this time for "SPECTRE" needs to be slightly different in order to get to $1.2 Billion worldwide. I'm quite certain that this is what Sony is aiming at. They are aware of the financial situation in Europe. They are aware of "our" weak Euro against the Dollar, the British Pound and the Chinese Renminbi-Yuan.
So I guess they anticipate a slightly lower box office result in EU-countries like Germany, France and Netherlands. Still, it must be said that on average the entertainment business seems fairly robust and isn't that much prone to inflation, deflation or any other worsening economical/financial situation. The first box office numbers from "Furious 7" in those countries prove that.
To counter-act any disappointing grosses in Europe, Sony is aiming its marketing/publicity heavily on markets like China and USA. Those markets still could do better for Bond. Latin-American markets and Asian markets like Brazil, Mexico, South-Korea and Japan didn't do wonders to "Skyfall"s global box office either. Expect Sony to heavily aim its campaigns in those countries as well.
You are.....really comparing "Transformers" with "Furious 7"??
a monetary comparison might be quite apt in this case. :D
why not? both are mindless, action heavy, no story, bang em up fare!
You forget the Walker factor and the growing fun that the F&TF franchise offers, and do not compare that with the more navel-gazing approach the recent 007 outings.
As for the latest Transformer movie it did take part for a large part in China which might have added towards their interest in the movie.
"navel-gazing approach"?? What's that supposed to mean.
Now let me talk for a second about my favouritism towards Bond films. Solely for box office returns, I hope "SPECTRE" will make huge inroads in China. But quality-wise, and looking at what the Chinese audience like, I hope the UK will do again better than China.
China is necessary for its success. But the Chinese lack intellect and content when it comes to movies. Which is easy to understand culturally.....if you have been opressed by the government for decades, erasing any individual thinking.
I prefer the "navel-gazing approach" having more worldwide box office success than the "brainless approach".
I wouldn't have quite put it this way @Gustav_Graves. It could just be a language or cultural issue. Maybe they only choose to see Western movies for the action. I'm sure they have a lot of intelligent & mature fare in their native language. They are a very old & wise culture.
Are we supposed to let that go without any reaction ?
This is the top grossing movie in Nederlands in 2014 :
Stop judging art or people with box office.
Stop creating such bullocks one liners that imply too much and that have the effect of painting me as some kind of xenofobe.
The only thing you do is planting seeds of divisiveness. And you bear a grudge against me. That's obvious.
Off course every country has its own blockbusters. And for every Chinese PhD student there's an incredible stupid Dutch dumbass (I am Dutch) visiting a cheap Desperate Housewives rip-off. But obviously that wasn't my point....and you know it. if you read between the lines, you would have known that China on average loves the "Hollywood action blockbuster" more than the country of its origin, USA. Hence the success of the rather brainless "Transformers".
And then my 2nd point: I prefer an intelligent blockbuster passing the 1 Billion Dollar at the box office, than a more non-stop action flick doing a 1 Billion.
So stop planting seeds of divisiveness Mr France. And come up with some positive posts or topics without the glaring, sometimes mean-spirited, sarcasm.
Come on Gustav Graves with this remark you disqualified a whole country which is xenofobic and racist as well.
As for SP we still have to see if it is an intelligent movie as SF was most certainly not, the 007 franchise has never been a defender of intelligent movies they are fun movies even if the Craig era does its best to chance that.
It wasn't my intention. I just got a bit defensive of my beloved Bond franchise. Sorry for the use of my words. But some people only ONLY react to me when they detect these kind of mistakes I make. And this guy knows it. It's the same guy who mocks about Asperger syndrome and (my) autism, and who hasn't got the decency to apologize for that ever since.
Gustav_Graves--I only know of one person who was perfect in the history of the world. Don't let the chickens pull you down from soaring with the eagles. I appreciate your insights.
We all know that this site is filled with 007 fans that too often find people that disagree with their particular taste not real James Bond fans. Talk about a religion and then compare it to the believes of fans, they both can be nutty.
And as for your Asperger, I did not know and care either as you are as capable as any on this site to get your point or view across. In my humble view and working experience you seem very capable to communicate and I enjoy that a lot. There are some on this site that not as communicative smart as you are, and smart people tend to smash into each others ideas and convictions. Which makes for fun discourses on this site.
No I don't know that "China loves Hollywood action blockbuster more than USA". I don't know what the Chinese audience really like, but I think they love going to movies, and I guess what they're given first these days. "Transformers" as an example of China loving brainless stuff more than the USA ? The last one was second only to Avatar in the USA ! On the other hand, "Transcendence" did more in China than in the USA, I guess I could say they like moody arty stuff more than the USA ? You can always find "facts" to make simplistic comments. That's why I put the trailer of your own country's most massive movie hit of last year. Should we conclude you love brainless stuff too ?
And contrary to what you wrote, I never had fun with your autism. I took it into account when I replied to you, on the contrary (*). I notice you bring this strawman after yet another insensitive remark about other persons (here, the whole of China !). On the other hand, if I listed all the insults you have written about me and others who have different opinions than yours (and alas, that includes opinions you create for them, and even "I don't know" opinions !), I think it would look like a gastroenterology handbook.
(*) to summarize for others : he explained the CG faces in SF were very realistic contrary to what the others said, with the usual "it's only bad faith criticism from a little circle of fans" approach to dismiss everyone having a different opinion. Then, since I know he wrote earlier he had autism (sorry to bother reading what people write here !), and that autism has a lot to do with in particular a different perception of other people's faces, I proposed to him that if a lot of people were finding these CG faces quite a worrying distraction, that was not some "bad faith to criticize the Bond franchise", but just that really, other people's perception could be very different from his on this subject.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2015-04-12-global-report-furious-7-speeds-to-800-million-globally-breaks-single-day-record-in-china
If this goes on, "Furious 7" is on pace towards a $1.5 Billion global box office result. So it becomes very difficult for "SPECTRE" to improve on that. Especially in China.
the movie will have to make a healthy profit and if it does so it will have space to grow up like with the Craig movies.
Not necessarily a billion. But for any big budget movie you have to be hitting 700-800 mil to be considered a big international success. I'm sure some idiots on certain websites will cry flop if it "only" makes that much, but ups and downs are par for the course with Bond. Look at Rog's time as Bond, the box office was all over the place - LALD huge hit, TMWTGG, big disappointment, TSWLM was a comeback, and MR was huge, then FYEO, OP, AVTAK all dropped off. And with Connery, box office went up and up, peaking with TB, then YOLT and DAF made less money. The successful Bonds all peaked with their fourth movie, but Craig delivered a massive third one so it'll be interesting to see if it can increase again or if it cools off.
It's like in the 1990's, when "GoldenEye" set a benchmark of more than $300 Million worldwide, which all other three Brosnan-films managed to pass as well. So....no worries. This time the standard is not plus $300 Million, but plus $1.000 Million.