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That's not going to happen. Crossing the 1 Billion Dollar mark as of 2015 won't be that....exotic anymore. It's now also a matter of: 1.0 Billion, 1.1 Billion, 1.2 Billion, 1.4 Billion, 1.5 Billion, 1.75 Billion, more than 2 Billion, etc.
That's the real question. I still think....I believe.....that SP will cross the 1.2 Billion. But so far in the ranking, I think SP will now have slightly more trouble getting 3rd spot behind "Star Wars 7" and "Avengers 2". That 3rd spot could very well go to "Furious 7".
So there's no panic needed. By the way, "Furious 7" was not a bad movie. "Transformers"....now that I found pretty shitty. Also don't forget that the elite group of "1 Billion Dollar" contains good movies and bad movies. Similar to movies that grossed between 500 Million and 999 Million. "The Dark Knight".....need I say more?
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That's not going to happen. Crossing the 1 Billion Dollar mark as of 2015 won't be that....exotic anymore. It's now also a matter of: 1.0 Billion, 1.1 Billion, 1.2 Billion, 1.4 Billion, 1.5 Billion, 1.75 Billion, more than 2 Billion, etc.
That's the real question. I still think....I believe.....that SP will cross the 1.2 Billion. But so far in the ranking, I think SP will now have slightly more trouble getting 3rd spot behind "Star Wars 7" and "Avengers 2". That 3rd spot could very well go to "Furious 7".
So there's no panic needed. By the way, "Furious 7" was not a bad movie. "Transformers"....now that I found pretty shitty. Also don't forget that the elite group of "1 Billion Dollar" contains good movies and bad movies. Similar to movies that grossed between 500 Million and 999 Million. "The Dark Knight".....need I say more?[/quote]
exactly. the Transformers movies are much higher than the whole Dark Knight trilogy. Does it mean they're better?
"OK"...? Considering that the previous three Bond movies made 160, 167, and 168, that's a stunning result.
Not really in comparison (percentage) with a much smaller market like the UK. Or Germany. Also, don't forget there was a 4year gap between QOS and SF. And, there are 2d movies in the USA that did far more impressive stuff in the USA. Think of "The Dark Knight"-trilogy. Fact is, the 1.1 Billion Dollar number for "Skyfall" was for a big part attributed to astonishing European results. "SPECTRE" can not improve on that much, but instead needs to do well in other markets, like Asia and Latin-America.
That's right.
SKYFALL is still the most succesful movie in Germany since ... SKYFALL.
No movie in the last 3 years came even close.
QOS had 4,8 million tickets sold,
SF had 7,8 million tickets sold.
"Fast and the Furious 6" sold only 2,9 million tickets. Just to let you know how big Bond is in Germany. "Furious 7" will torpedo that, but it won't even come close to any recent Bond figures, too.
"Avengers" sold only 2,3 million tickets. And that's the most succesful of all the new Marvel movies. As you can see: Marvel is absolutely no big deal in Germany.
There are two movies, that may have a go at competing with SPECTRE for the top spot on the year-end-charts. And that's Star Wars and a german movie sequel called "Fuck You, two". The first one was a surprise hit two years ago and lots of teenagers are waiting for the sequel.
I don't see any other movie being a serious danger to SPECTRE's Number One position at the end of the year.
Well, for the global box office I already said way back, that "SPECTRE" and "Furious 7" will be each others biggest competitors for a 3rd spot in the final global box office ranking. As I think that both movies have a shot at surpassing $1.2 Billion wordwide now.
But, I foresee that "SPECTRE" (and "Furious 7") will not come close to the most likely insane box office grosses of "Star Wars 7" and "Avengers 2".
I'm quite certain that the animated movie "Minions" will also surpass the 1 Billion Dollar mark as well.
The last "The Hunger Games" movie? I'm.....I'm really not certain. The last movie from 2014 was the least successful entry in the franchise and box office forecasters were already saying that this entry, and subsequently the last part, were lacking some youthful flair...and were slightly too dark. Also, the fact that it's the last movie from the Hunger Games-franchise is no guarantee for an extra bump in sales. Just look to the last "Hobbit"-movie.
So far, I think this could be the TOP 5 of 2015:
01. 1.95 Billion: "Star Wars 7"
02. 1.45 Billion: "Avengers 2"
03. 1.25 Billion: "Furious 7"
04. 1.20 Billion: "SPECTRE"
05. 1.05 Billion: "Minions"
---
06. 1.00 Billion: "Jurassic World"
07. 0.90 Billion: "Hunger Games 4"
After that, movies like "Inside Out", "The Good Dinosaur" (the first two Pixar movies since 2013) and "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" could follow with gross amounts between $700 Million and 900 Million.
I think 2015 already proves that it's already on track to become an insane box office year....as predicted already by me in late 2013. BUT, most importantly: China. This country is almost as big as the US-market. Money earned there really bump up the figures for many Hollywood-productions, making the 1 Billion Dollar mark less exotic.
Hm, a French comedy did 20% more in Germany than Skyfall the year they were released :) and then the year after a German comedy did almost as much as Skyfall. Yes Skyfall was the only "blockbuster" to do as much as Skyfall, but European comedies can do still well...
Similarly in France only Skyfall did as much as Skyfall.. except for three French comedies, including one who did almost 3 times more than Skyfall.
PS : Skyfall's success in France and Germany was helped by an important indirect effect : Asterix did not do as much as expected. The other comedies were delayed to avoid the "Asterix tsunami" that did not happen. So Skyfall had not much competition in these countries... Oh, and Asterix was named after Bond :)
But "Intouchables" was released in France in late 2011 and in Germany in the first week of 2012. That' almost a year BEFORE Skyfall.
After Skyfall no movie topped the success of Skyfall.
Even "Fack Ju Göhte" (the german comedy you mentioned, and the sequel I mentioned for this fall) did not top the numbers for Skyfall, even if it came close.
By the way: in Germany a movie is called a "blockbuster" if it sells more than 3 million tickets at the Box Office. So of course there are succesful movies.
But after "Avatar" (2009) with 11.3 million tickets sold, only "Intouchables" (2011) with 9.1 million tickets, and then "Skyfall" (2012) with 7.8 million tickets very really huge successes.
Yeah; I know that "Fack Ju Göhte" (2013) with 7.3 million tickets sold is a huge success, but it feels the way that it was mainly seen by school pupils and teachers. I know people, that don't even know that this movies exists despite its success.
But back to topic:
"Furious 7" will do $1.4 billion at the box office, I believe, and "Skyfall" will need lots of good word of mouth to top that.
I don't have a crystal ball to estimate where the box office will be this year (too much competition and too many variables - I still think SP will be a huge success but will come in just below SF) but if you are correct in your above estimate, then it is tragic indeed imho.
I saw Furious 7 and was not impressed with it at all.
However, that being said i'm inclined to side with @Gustav's projections for SP and if a film like fast 7 can chalk up that much cheddar then it's great news for Bond's potential takings. Fandom aside SF was a very popular film and quite frankly i'm surprised at how much the general audience rate it so highly but that can only be a good thing for SP. I think Mendes and the team are aware of the competition and the pitfalls SF faced and as such SP are delivering big time on engaging drama with the story they're looking to tell but the wow factor has been upped a great deal compared to SF.
SP's cinematography looks better, better locations, more love interests, an expected iconic henchman, Waltz' casting and the action isn't just plenty but thrilling, varied and entertaining. These components are likely to help boost the appeal and resonate better in countries where SF didn't do so well and I think with the teaser getting such positive responses already, with a more action-centric trailer being released I think estimates will feel more concrete.
As it is, SP already massively feels and looks superior to SF. I think we're on track to something truly remarkable critically and financially.
It will do better. Money-wise. For sure. Only thing is the ranking. More money in 2015 doesn't mean again a 2nd place for Bond in the final tally. That's all.
"Hunger Games" is an already overestimated franchise. The 3rd part, last year, didn't do as well as the 2nd part. Yes, there will be slightly more influx for the 4th and final film in the franchise. But I think it's no match for 007.
Just look at what "Twilight" did back in 2012, which also opened two weeks after "Skyfall". Did it....hurt Bond? On the contrary. Both "Twilight" and "Hunger Games" are comparable youth-adult adaptations: They do tremendously well in its first two weeks, but they usually lack the holdover, longevity, that Bond films have.
Another example is "The Hobbit". That one opened on December 14th 2014. It was a 1 Billion Dollar film. But again during those weeks in December "Skyfall" proved its holdover. "The Hobbit" did very well, but could not overtake "Skyfall" in the final box office ranking.
Now I'm not saying that "SPECTRE" will repeat this in 2015 -"Hunger Games 4" opens November 20th, "Star Wars 7" opens December 18th-, but I do think people are consistently underestimating the newly build strength of the Bond franchise ever since "Skyfall".
On top of that, franchises like "Hunger Games", "The Hobbit" and "Twilight" got OK-ratings/reviews. But those were OK-ratings/reviews, not just astonishing or mindblowing reviews Hence why these fantasy franchise could not channel more interest in the same way as "Skyfall" did.
Germany's release date was pushed back from Oct. 29 to Nov. 5.
And Austria and (german speaking Switzerland) will also have the movie on the 5th.
I'm sure there will be previews on the 4th. That's normal in Germany.
It's not one week later, but one day prior to the US.
The UK release date (as Marketto told us from Mexico) has not yet been decided.
But I believe it will be Oct. 23.
I think I agree with you on this - SP's overall box office rank vs. other movies this year will be lower than SF's in 2012. If it can get to #2 again it will be a miracle given the level of competition out there.
I hope it outgrosses SF, but won't be bothered if it doesn't, as long as it both cracks the top 5 globally for 2015 and additionally does better in China and in the US compared to SF (all of which are possible). Those are criteria I want it to achieve.
Falling behind in Europe is totally understandable given Euro issues etc. and if that has a negative impact on its overall tally, I'm ok with it. Not hitting the amazing tally of SF in the UK will be ok with me as well, as long as it's a good movie comparable to Craig's others, which I'm sure it will be.
There are only 2 "previous" DC Bond films. :-)
They did not get to $200 million in 2006 and 2008. But in 2015 dollars Casino Royale's $167 million would be worth $211 million, and Quantum of Solace's $168 million would be worth $195 million:
(look under "Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation")
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=jamesbond.htm
http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2015-04-17-furious-7-becomes-the-fastest-film-in-history-to-reach-1-billion-worldwide
"Fast & Furious 7" is indeed the "fastest" movie to reach $1 Billion worldwide. With this pace, I wouldn't be surprised that it can actually do better than "Avengers 2". I would now safely put "Furious 7" in the PLUS $1.5 Billion zone. The buzz for this Furious-film is simply bigger than Avengers 2.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/news/2015-04-17-star-wars-the-force-awakens-trailer-lands-in-china-as-film-tries-to-woo-new-fans
One week in Chinese theatres, and "Furious" has already passed the $250 Million there!
In comparison:
--> $294,410,000: USA
--> $250,500,000: China
The only thing that worries me here is, the fact that China applies a quota/maximum on foreign movies to be distributed into China. For the reason of helping domestic productions. Could this lead to some problems for "SPECTRE" being screened there relatively early?
It disappoints me to learn that this POS (imho) has already made more than 4 times what SF made during its entire run in China.
ok....?
i hear ya, hope bond doesn't have to pander to the Chinese audience to be competitive. it's definitely a scary proposition.
Well said that man! Could not agree more! =D>
Box office competition is what keeps movies going in the first place. It's a weird notion if you imply that movies can't stand on their own because of box office success.
This topic is about the financial part of movies. Indeed, about which movie can outdo others. Does that fact ruin movies? off course not.