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True. But what's the worst thing that could happen after 6 weeks? "SPECTRE" will most certainly not be the nr. 1 movie at that time anymore. Just like in 2012.
Actually, "Skyfall" actually retained top spot early December, before "Hobbit" premiered. So before the "Star Wars" premiere on December 18th, there are 17 more days before that "SPECTRE" can repeat something similar. And even after December 18th Christmas is coming up, so "SPECTRE" by then could still be TOP 4 box office with good holdover.
No doubt about it. I agree with you.
My point is about the repeat viewings and the enthusiasm to go back and see it again among casual fans. I remember 2012 being crap around this time apart for SF, so I went back and saw it again (with another set of friends) and again. In 2015, I may actually go and see SW7 3 times if it's as good as it can be (not saying I will......but I might......that will impact SP). I have a lot of friends who can't wait for SW7 (they are real fans while I count myself as a casual fan).
So the calendar and the competition does matter, on the margin.
Having said that, SP will get its gross in much faster than SF did. It's going to be front loaded so expect some very heavy marketing just before release. The title track is critical to get the buzz imho. It had better be good.....
Yeah Spectre is going to get cut off at the knees by Star Wars, it won't be allowed to run as long and wide as Skyfall did. And then with the Twilight/Hunger Games comparison, Hunger Games is a lot more popular than Twilight ever was, they're making at least $100 mil more. So yeah Spectre has to go big right out of the gate. I actually wrote a hypothetical week-to-week look at its US potential here :
http://www.mi6community.com/index.php?p=/discussion/comment/441501/#Comment_441501
I actually couldn't give two shits what SP makes, as long as I love it. That said, with my objective head on I would agree with your points. If it doesn't fly out of the blocks, one imagines it will suffer. SW is this years behemoth.
I think it's a way too bleak forecast you're mentioning here I think. Just have a look at how fast this year movies like "Furious 7" and "Avengers 2" crossed the 1 Billion mark globally. Did steam machine "Avengers 2" prevent "Furious 7" staying power one month after it premiered? So I think your argument about "Star Wars" isn't 100% realistic, though I think there's some truth in it.
"The Hunger Games" is a great franchise yes, but especially the last two films didn't do as big as the first film. Actually, the 3rd film slightly disappointed as compared to the 2nd film. the franchise's staying power is less strong than the last Bond film. All will depend on critical reviews as well though, but I can't see "Hunger Games" crossing the 1 Billion mark globally that easily. I think "SPECTRE" will cross that mark easier.
One last thing: "Skyfall" was a unique Bond film in that it created influx of a lot of new fans. People who would otherwise not visit a general Bond film. Yes, at was also the 50th anniversary, but names like Adele, Sam Mendes and Javier Bardem were so huge and big, that many people simply wanted to see the film because of these big names.
I still think people underestimate the legacy that "Skyfall" created. And then we haven't discussed China yet. Whatever happens, SP will outperform SF in China. SF'S box office return in hindsight was very disappointing. SP will already gross $25 Million more than SF, even if it gets a late premiere date as opposed to November 6th.
I have the same concerns but I also think the glut of spy films opening just weeks, and days before SP could also damage it's BO. You can't help but wonder how many IMAX screens will they eat up and can hold if they are hits. MI, Uncle and Bridge of Spys could also all threaten Bond's BO by creating Spy movie fatigue. They also just moved The Martian to a month before Bond opens. More competition for adult viewers. Some of these films will flop as there is just too much competition.
China could also be a problem. They opened SF very late during the same time frame 3 yrs ago. By the time it opened, the movie was heavily bootlegged by the tech savvy Chinese and did poorly. Unless they can arrange to open it quickly, BO in China could suffer again. I read somewhere that Mad Max isn't even playing in China which seems nuts. Anyone know if that is accurate? For sure, another 1B gross is going to be a lot tougher to achieve this time around.
Sorry, I don't believe at all in this "spy fatigue". It's the same as this so called "comic book fatigue". We probably see it, but the real visitors don't.
I for instance believe this immensely crowded box office year is actually activating and stimulating cinema visits. I think movies like "Furious 7", "Avengers 2", "Minions", "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation", "Jurassic World", "Hunger Games", "SPECTRE" and "Star Wars 7" are indirectly helping each other's box office successes a bit.
I think its better for Spectre that the Martian moved to Oct, instead of being another movie opening at Thanksgiving which would need screen space (including IMAX). Personally I don't think it looks very good, not as 'big' in scope as Gravity or Interstellar
The spy fatigue thing is more of a concern for UNCLE, it won't be a problem for Bond, which always has its own unique appeal. All these imitation Diet Coke-Bond movies do is increase appetite for the real thing :)
And let's face it. Isn't it a wunderful build-up to "SPECTRE"? First all the wannabe-spy movies, and then in November we get the piece-de-resistance. James Bond 007 in "SPECTRE" :-). There can't be a better road/build-up towards Her Majesty's Secret Agent ;-).
1.- Star Wars 1,700 M
2.- Furious 7 1,500 M +
3.- Avengers 2 1,400 M
Spectre will make about 900 M and is going to fight for a place in Top 5 with Hunger Games, Jurassic World, Minions and maybe one of the Pixar realeases.
This is very much in line with my expectations, although I think SP can just crack $1bn.. Only if the action is amazing (to pull in the Asian crowd) will it go beyond that....
I'm still sticking with a = $1.2 Billion prediction. Moreover, IF "SPECTRE" banks in $900 Million on a $300 Million budget, than that would mean a slight disappointment.
@ChampionAlonso: It isn't exactly a 'bet' anymore what you say about "Furious 7" and "Avengers 2". Those figures are already more or less factual.
I see it like this: "SPECTRE" will pass the $1.2 Billion, which is an improvement over "Skyfall". But in a weird kind of twist this wunderful box office figure could perhaps only rank 5th. And that I agree.
At this stage, taking into account another insane weekend opening, this time for "Jurassic World" (+ $160 Million), I think we could perhaps see SIX movies passing the $1 Billion mark in 2015.
My bet so far:
1. + 2.0 Billion: "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens"
2. + 1.5 Billion: "Furious 7" (it's already a fact)
3. + 1.4 Billion: "Avengers 2: Age Of Ultron" (it's already a fact)
4. + 1.2 Billion: "Jurassic World"
5. + 1.2 Billion: "SPECTRE"
6. + 1.0 Billion: "Minions"
7. + 0.9 Billion: "The Hunger Games 4" (just missing out the 1 Billion mark)
Some forummembers told me in 2014 that I was crazy by saying so many movies could pass the $1.0 Billion. But I think it's becoming reality: 2015 is becoming an insane box office year. Even a weak Euro isn't stopping it :-).
But my feeling is, that JW won't do that much.
BRW, do we know, what the release date is for China?
In the US, JW is already at $155M.
I have to say that the first film of the year that I am strongly thinking of seeing twice in the theatre is JW. I'm trying to resist, but may succumb next week......
t good at all.
I found it lacklustre.
Critically speaking yes (especially in comparision to 1 & 2). However, we're in June, and Avengers & FF7 did not live up to expectations. My standards are lower now, and this did the trick for me. Looking forward to MI5 next to get summer rolling.
I think Mad Max is far and away my favourite blockbuster of the year so far. I thought Avengers was so-so. Haven't seen F7, not really my bag those films.
I really liked Mad Max too. Amazing film.
I think JW is the first of the predicted mega movies of 2015 that lived up to the hype in terms of being entertaining, if nothing else. That's what I was happy about when I left the theatre. Also, there could be some nostalgia creeping in since it's been a long time since I've seen a Jurassic movie.
Avengers was the one that really let me down given my expectations (I enjoyed the first one immensely - and maybe am just getting Marvel fatigue - there's only so many building collapses one can take without getting bored....).
I knew what to expect from FF7 and it didn't even meet those expecations for me - a CGI crapfest. Amazed at how much money it's made.
Come on :-). The fact that "Furious 7", "Avengers 2" & "Jurassic World" are doing great, does not mean that there's more pressure on "SPECTRE".
Moreover, it was predicted that these three movies would be 1 Billion Dollar candidates. But so is "SPECTRE".
Also, if one looks closely at the marketing strategy of "SPECTRE", and the fact that we get trailers so bloody soon, does indicate that SONY/MGM/EON were very well prepared for this insane box office year :-).