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That's the main question.
Was it a one-off.
We will know by December 31st, 2015.
Skyfall was not the usual "here comes another Bond" affair as we all know.
I'm torn between 825 million USD and 1.4 billion USD.
Because if Skyfall was indeed a one-off and you look at the normal growth rate, Bond movies have done since GE, SP would make 825 million, but if SF indeed put the franchise on an insanely high new level, then SP will do even better.
I think it's the latter. Too much goodwill. People really talk like "I want to see the sequel of SF!" instead of "Let's go watch the new Bond film".
http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-09-long-range-forecast-spectre
I've found this to be the best US tracking site for upcoming films. They were dead right on MI5 and Uncle, unlike other major US tracking sites. This is their first serious tracking for SP and I find it very good news. I never expected SP to do $1b, as I've just been hoping it comes near and clears its budget.
If this tracking holds, than SF was not a one off with SP going back to just above CR and QOS form which was my concern. This US projection appears to project something around $900m world wide, which would be great in my view. I have always thought $1b or more was too optimistic. China may be the wild card for $1b+, but I'm not betting on China doing great SP BO.
If I calculate the same loss for the rest of the world, Spectre will make short of 950 million.
Not that this is anything less than a financial success, but in the public's mind Spectre will be considered a flop if it doesn't reach the magical number of a billion.
Spectre should do 1.3 billion, I bloody well hope so.
China has become the big wild card for huge BO, but someone noted in a post the reasons why Bond is not huge BO in China is that it's not the kind of strictly visual all eye candy that films like JW and Fast7 are. Maybe SP will do well in China as it has more action but I"m looking to the US, GB and Europe to once again be the main source of its BO. I had no overly optimistic expectations on a $1b SP BO, so the US tracking news today was good news as I know that site to be highly realistic and accurate in their projections.
I will be seeing SP in IMAX (at least the first time) and I know many fans will do the same, so I think the opening weekend gross is more likely going to be closer to SF's (at least in the US/UK) rather than CR/QoS (which did not benefit as much from IMAX).
The big question with SP, as you rightly note, is China, where it will inevitably do much better (it really can't do worse) but still will underperform there compared to other major blockbusters (I'm sure of it).
The other question is how much 'legs' it will have. SF had incredible 'legs' and repeat viewings outside the hardcore base. That was a large part of its success. SP may have trouble duplicating that due to the crowded calendar this year.
I think we are going to have a big hint about its box office prowess come Sep 25 when Smith's Writing's on the Wall drops. If it's a POS then SP will have problems (compared to SF that benefited from Adele's success, among other things). If it has massive airplay and is a global sustained hit, then this could bode well for SP getting the butts into the seats. If it's a love song as he suggested, then it may draw in a bigger demographic as well. I just hope his song doesn't give the darn plot away!
You are wrong. BoxOffice.com was entirely wrong with these, rather dubious, early tracking figures. I find these articles so bland really. Early tracking for "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" was way off. The actual opening weekend was much smaller as their predicted weekend estimate:
long range forecast prediction:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-06-long-range-forecast-mission-impossible-rogue-nation
Opening weekend: $71,000,000
Final domestic gross: $197,000,000
Factual box office results:
Opening weekend: $55,520,089
Current domestic gross: $183,612,153
Conclusion: "M:I - Rogue Nation" slightly underperformed as compared to their long range forecast. The film will not even come close to $197 Million and is, at least for now, in the USA not as succesful as "Ghost Protocol". Reason for that? The last-notice rescheduling. Which BoxOffice.com should have taken more serious.
With "Furious 7" it was the other way around really. That movie got pushed enormously by the death of Paul Walker, but also because the film received good reviews. I said that beforehand, BoxOffice.com took that too lightly. One can predict that with some more credible social media figures. One also needs to 'feel' trends properly, and Box.Office.com wasn't doing that:
long range forecast prediction:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
Opening weekend: $115,000,000
Final domestic gross: $260,000,000
Factual box office results:
Opening weekend: $147,187,040
Final domestic gross: $351,032,910
Conclusion: Like "Skyfall" and "The Dark Knight", boxoffice.com completely underestimated other sudden news events that can really drive up a movie, like the death of a co-star or the Olympics or a 50th Anniversary.
And one last 'long range forecast' prediction: "Kingsman: The Secret Service". Completely underestimated by the same site. Fox really attached all it's smart marketing efforts on that other competing movie "Fifty Shades Of Grey". It basically 'parasited' on that film wonderfully. BoxOffice.com entirely forgot that. Although I have to say that I'm only critical of these stupid long range forecasts. Otherwise it's a good website:
long range forecast prediction:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
Opening weekend: $23,000,000
Final domestic gross: $60,000,000
Factual box office results:
Opening weekend: $36,206,331
Final domestic gross: $128,261,724
Conclusion: Again, this shows how these 'long range forecasts' should be taken with a grain of salt. In the end "Kingsman" was a huge success in the USA and doubled its domestic take as compared to that early prediction
So I think you're drawing big conclusions too soon. You base your entire prediction on just early tracking? On these rather....flawed attention seeking filler articles? You need to take into account more trendsetting factors. One needs to predict better, 'feel' the mood so to say.
Trust me, "SPECTRE" will soar past the $350 Million domestically. And the opening weekend will make us all go crazy. I stick with my +$1.2 Billion global box office prediction:
I sometimes miss with current boxoffice predictions on big websites like boxofficemojo and boxoffice that they don't include 'trendreading'. Marketing is not only about statistics and reading social media in a too clinical way. Marketing is also about feelings and emotions.
Taking that into account, I really think the stars for "SPECTRE" are perfectly alligned.
Almost all the US tracking for MI5 was way off and under. It is unrealistic to think any tracking site is going to be 100% accurate at predicting the future, particularly when there are unforeseen events impacting. Tracking depends on a lot of variables, it's a science and an art for the bigger sites that do it. BO.com is better than most. Your expectation that they be 100% accurate is not realistic.
$0.27 bn (North America - just don't see it having SF's legs here, but it could be a little higher)
$0.10 bn (China)
$0.20 bn (Mexico)
$0.50 bn (Rest of World -currency being a major reason, along with less hype)
$1.07 bn (still goes above $1bn, just, which is a success - anything from $900m to $1bn is a success imho)
They are planning to have the most screens ever for opening Spectre, some Cinema Complexes will occupy up to half of their screens which is unheard of.
They are very confident Spectre will do insane numbers here.
And I guess the same goes for Germany, but that's nothing I could validate at the moment.
Why is it Walt Disney? Do they have the rights in Suisse?
Also, I can see them making a big push there, because the Franc is much higher now vs. the Euro, although pretty much on par relative to where it was vis a vis the $ in 2012.
Knock yourself out with more stats.
SW is a major factor definitely. SF had the best theatres locked in 2012 until Hobbit came out some time later, and even that was not direct competition.
Additionally though, I think SF was a revelation for many casual fans......they were reintroduced to Bond with that film in a big way.
So irrespective of SW, I think SP will have to retain and build on that new SF audience....it has to do that in a more crowded market this year however (particularly with HG which will eat into some of its gross much faster and earlier than SW as it will get to the IMAX theatres shortly after SP's debut).
Additionally, I think the SF impact is somewhat akin to the TDK impact or the Avengers impact......difficult to grow the base (or satisfy people) from this level (since the expectations are just so high now, unlike with SF which followed QoS).....although it will likely open much stronger than SF.
Distribution rights for Spectre are with The Walt Disney Company. I assume it's the same for Germany. Sony doesn't have distribution companies in all territories.
I think you are 100% right. I read somewhere that SW will take all the IMAX theaters when it opens. Also as you note, SP will not have the longer open field to itself. SF did really well for months. SP has to make bank early. I remember they SF did not open in a huge number of theaters which seemed strange. I hope they correct that with SP. I worry about Sony. I fear they may know they have already lost Bond and they won't spend the maximum huge bucks needed to market this thing, cause if it is not heavily marketed, it's BO will be harmed. All this is why I've worried that the $1b figure may be unrealistic, and why I was happy to see the $900m projection. Under these conditions, that ain't bad at all.
Both these posts make sense to me.
Kingsman was a relative success for a newbie product earlier this year in the US, but one must keep in mind that it was in theatres forever in N.A. It had a very long cushion because of when it was released, and the lack of competing product at the time. If it was released later in the year, I guarantee it would not have had half as large a North American gross. So release timing, length of theatre run and competition are critical to eventual success.
I don't trust Sony an inch. Bet they are toast and that could impact. I agree on Kingsman. Didn't they move the opening back? If so, it was a good move. There is so much that can impact a films' BO and competition would appear to be a big factor for how good a film's BO legs are. Film tickets, particularly IMAX, are getting very steep particularly for younger film goers and families. People have bigger and bigger tv's and films go on cable much sooner these days. Lots of things can hurt the BO these days. Maybe that is why EON is permanently moving Bond to a 3 yr cycle to make it more of an event film. Its enormous production effort is no doubt also an issue for EON and the studio change can't help but be a major issue. SF did really well for many months. I just don't see SP with the same advantages so I'm just not too optimistic about a big $1b++ BO.
I do agree with @RC7 that the premiere of SW could have problems with longevity/holdover of SP. But again, only after it premieres. It premieres on December 18th worldwide. So until that day SP still has no real competition from similar genres.
But I can already see that SW will be the favourite excuse if SP indeed shouldn't make the billion.
Who cares about excuses? If the film is great, f*** it. I know you want EON to fail, but some of us don't.