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http://variety.com/2015/film/news/china-box-office-boom-continues-1201594372/
While nothing is just certain yet, China’s cinema regulators, who have close ties with the government, might deliberately hold back the premiere of "SPECTRE" (again) until January. China wants to open them almost at the same time as "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens" and "The Hunger Games 4: Mockingjay Part 2". By doing so, they could financially cannibalize each other.
Can Sony/MGM/EON do something about that? According to the Variety article it's a "No". This has nothing to do with all the negativity surrounding the SonyLeaks. Reason this will most likely happen to "SPECTRE", is because the previous three blockbusters "Furious 7" ($391 million), "Avengers 2" ($240 million), "Jurassic World" ($238 million) and now even "Mission: Impossible 7" ($85 million in just 6 days) embarrassed Chinese authorities by obliterating box office records earlier this year. They unexpectedly did way too well at the Chinese box-office, how weird that may sound. It's something you can not predict. And if you do want to prevent this, it is perhaps better to let a Bond film globally premiere in the spring instead of the fall season.
As you know the country loosely enforces a quota of 34 foreign films a year, and 20 of those slots already have been taken. And especially now with the insane box office grosses in China of earlier mentioned film, "James Bond-007" could be in danger in China to finalize set feet on Chinese grounds....box office-wise, perhaps letting the teams of Furious 7 and Mission: Impossible become the action franchise benchmark.
So I think it's slightly more realistic to say that "SPECTRE" will premiere in China around January. "SPECTRE" could improve on "Skyfall" in China, but if the above scenario becomes truth, then I think the film could be struggling passing the $100 Million mark in China.
That's absolutely true. It still is a communist dictator-ish country. But it scares me sometimes. If only "Furious 7" didn't perform as well in China, perhaps then there were more certainties for an early December release for "SPECTRE".
For now please let's wait a bit. Nothing is confirmed just yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2029&v=wJ811P3C5Es
She does tickle my last bits of 'straight'-ness also :-P.
And orgasmic
http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000092/thread/246509666?p=6
It's all about the recent article I posted on top of this page (Variety) and the entire box office scam that is happening now in China, as described in this "The Guardian" article. I think we all need to take into account the unpredictability of the Chinese box office, as this country is so aggressively protectionistic and is applying very dictatorial methods on making sure not too many foreign movies do well. It's a bit sickening really...... So I'm afraid the box office take of "SPECTRE" is completely beyond our powers:
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/sep/08/china-accused-of-as-government-backed-film-outperforms-terminator-genisys
Your prediction is so flawed. And full of hyperbole. Currently, "M:I - Rogue Nation" is en route toward $ 750 Million. If "SPECTRE" barely scratches that amount, than some Sony exec's need to get worried. "SPECTRE" is a certified 1 Bullion Dollar film.
Now your prediction about "Star Wars 7" reaching $ 3 Billion is even more ridiculous. No movie ever reached that amount. Not even "Titanic" and "Avatar". I do think the film reaches the $ 2 Billion quite easily, but $ 2.3 Billion should be the maximum.
No, 3 billion easy.
One thing to keep in mind re: SP - most of the 'spy' movies this year have sort of underperformed at the US box office, in the sense that they are not hitting any records or anything. That is a little concerning.
"Mission: Impossible: Rogue Nation" is bound to pass the $750 Million with current China box office figures in mind. So globally it will definately do better than "Ghost Protocol".
"Kingsman: The Secret Service" is thé surprise 'spy hit' of 2015, which kicked off the insane box office run of US-movies in China. $408 Million globally as of toay.
"Spy" is the most succesful Melissa McCarthy movie ever: $236 Million globally. Even "Taken 3" did good stuff.
I'm smelling some slight.....'unrealistic caution' from your side regarding "SPECTRE" ;-). Don't worry, "SPECTRE" will wow me...you....everyone....in a couple of weeks time.
Regarding "Star Wars 7" outperforming "Avatar". To stick to some 'caution' that you usually apply to "SPECTRE" and that I will apply to "Star Wars" now: I think not 'everything' is possible. I think it can easily pass "Titanic", but so far I can't see it hit the $3 Billion.
"Avatar" was a unique event film. It was totally new, it applied 3D in truly wonderful ways, that everyone suddenly embraced that technique. Ever since that film, 3D has been applied in a much cheaper, uncreative way. "Star Wars" for me still is...."Star Wars". It has a history, like James Bond, that will prevent it from hitting $3 Billion. It's still sci-fi, and there are simply too many people who say "No" beforehand to sci-fi. My dad included.
I'm not saying SW7 will hit $3bn - but I won't rule it out. It is such a wild card, and this is the first SW film to be marketed by the machine that is 'Walt Disney Corporation'. They will go absolutely all out to take this up there. Again, I'm not saying it will do 3 figures, but I really have no idea what can happen with this one. If they mess it up, it could actually underperform (although I doubt it).
Regarding SP, my caution more applies to the US box office and the China box office. As I noted, most spy films have underperformed (imho) at the US box office this year. As you have noted, China is messing around with foreign films for political and ego reasons, so that could also impact the SP China gross, which both you and I agree is critical to it doing well. Furthermore, SP is a 'Sony' film and there is a lot of disgruntlement with this studio this year (Chinese would love to target it because it's Japanese, and the US is not that enamoured with it because it's foreign and because of the leaks). So there are risks with SP imho. Many would be happy to see Sony fall flat on its face before the year is out, rather than stage a last minute comeback on the shoulders of James Bond.
Let's end on a positive note. We both won't rule out $1.2 Billion box office gross for "SPECTRE" ;-).
I had friends who worked for McDonald's and they were shocked that people were standing in line in Moscow for the grand opening and willing to pay over a week's salary for a Happy Meal.
They'd better ramp up in a big way in the next few weeks globally though and Smith had better knock it convincingly out of the park. Sep 25th will tell us a lot.
For starters:
Avatar (2009) got 11.292.801 tickets sold
Titanic (1997) got 18.081.331 tickets sold
The Bond movies:
1. 7.771.551 tickets sold SKYFALL
2. 5.501.310 tickets sold GOLDENEYE
3. 5.456.165 tickets sold CASINO ROYALE
4. 5.072.138 tickets sold THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH
5. 4.940.201 tickets sold DIE ANOTHER DAY
6. 4.739.369 tickets sold QUANTUM OF SOLACE
7. 4.477.102 tickets sold TOMORROW NEVER DIES
Germany has the highest population in Europe with 80 million. UK has 65 million. Figures for 2015.
In all countries that are measuring success by tickets sold the result is the same for movies like Avatar, Titanic, Skyfall, GE and CR.
Only TWINE and DAD change places in some countries.
QOS finished last everywhere.
I can give those figures but it would be quite a workload to write that all down.
The point is, if SP wants to do 1.2 billion dollars worldwide it is not that difficult.
It can sell 10% less movie tickets than SF and is still ahead of SF by at least 100 million.
Also an interesting fact: The Craig era was not more successful than the Brosnan era up to QOS. Skyfall on the other hand did the impossible and catapulted the franchise to roughly the same level it had in 1977 (look at the chart below).
Just look at the insane revenue that Avatar did compared with what Titanic did and then looks at the tickets sold number.
Titanic got a staggering 6 million more tickets sold in Germany, but the revenue was considerably lower than the revenue of Avatar.
James Bond ticket sales in Germany: (population was 78 million in 1969 compared to the 80 million today, so not that different)
older movies sadly not available
OHMSS 4.0 million in 1969
YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE 5.5 million in 1971
LIVE AND LET DIE 6.0 million in 1973
TMWTGG 6.0 million in 1974
THE SPY WHO LOVED ME 7.2 million in 1977 (near the SKYFALL figure!!)
MOONRAKER 5.3 million in 1979
FOR YOUR EYES ONLY 4.8 million in 1981
OCTOPUSSY 4.3 million in 1983
A VIEW TO A KILL 3.4 million in 1985
THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS 3.1 million in 1987
LICENCE TO KILL 2.5 million in 1989
GOLDENEYE 5.5 million in 1995 more or less saved the Bond franchise
I can give you numbers for any movie you would like to know, if that sort of thing interests you. Again Germany is like a model for the rest of the world (Europe, North America) so it gives a good impression on the success of movies in general.
In actually like to look at something else regarding the possible box office gross in the US for "SPECTRE". And that is the theatre count. Back in 2012 "SkyFall" opened with a rather low theatre count:
Now to perform with a $304 Million domestic box office gross with such a low theatre count, still makes me realize how impressively "SkyFall" performed in the US. As of today I still think Sony Pictures underestimated this film completely. It should have opened with at least a theatre count of 4,200! I really think Sony 'lost' money here. They really should have distributed the film more fiercefully in the USA.
So on average "Skyfall" did insanely well with an average box office gross of $25,211 on a count of 3,505 theatres. But the anticipation was much higher in the US than Sony anticipated.
So that's why I expect Sony will get it right this time around with "SPECTRE". I wouldn't be surprised if the film will distributed over 4,250 theatres. Perhaps even more. And if that's the case, then I could see "SPECTRE" easily hit the $350 Million domestically.
And then please bring on Idris or Hemsworth with Nolan or. We need fresh blood, now.
I think you are exaggerating. Especially when it concerns your comment about "new blood". IMO Idris Elba is one hell of a narcist....and a Bond actor should be played by a down-to-earth British gentleman.
Unfortunatelly your statement is flawed.
In general, yes, the ticket price inflation is quite significant and needs to be considered when comparing movies from different years and in most cases, the latest "box office records" are driven by this inflation factor (Avatar vs. Titanic for instance).
However, in the case of SF vs. SP the situation is a bit more complex. In a nutshell, if SP sells the same number of tickets, it will most likely be BEHING SF's box office, measures in USD and that is because of currency exchange rate development.
I did the following analysis a couple of days ago:
The six major markets for SF apart from the US were:
Euro Zone: ca. 250 Mio Dollar
UK: ca. 160 Mio Dollar
China: ca. 60 Mio Dollar
Australia: ca. 50 Mio Dollar
Japan: ca 32 Mio Dollar
Russia: ca. 25 Mio. Dollar
These make up ~50% of SF box office.
For ALL of these countries/regions, the FX-rate towards USD has developed quite significantly negative.
If SP seels exactly the same amount of tickets in these regions, it would end up with 15% (!!!) LESS box office measured in USD - that is without ticket price inflation.
With other words:
You would need at least 15% inflation of ticket prices since SF to end up with the same box office in case you sell the same amount of tickets
But that's not my point. I think with current popularity of IMAX, a way healthier theatre count for "SP" in the USA, and even a +$100 Million Dollar box office gross for "SP" in China if the film isn't doing that well by taking into account my previous posts on this page, "SPECTRE" will still be on its way towards $1.2 Billion.
A comparison I posted a few weeks ago:
Now as you can see I was very enthusiastic about the Chinese box office gross before recent bad news about Chinese protectionistic movie business. But let's say it grosses $100 Million if it has a rather lacklustre premiere date of mid january 2016, then it will still cross the $1.2 Billion.
Also, as you can see, I have taken into account a slightly lower "rest of the world" box office gross for "SPECTRE" as compared to "Skyfall".
In a Franchise, the box office is always influenced by these factors:
1. How many people saw the last movie?
2. Did people like it - or at least is the general consensus positive
3. How good does the new movie please its audience
Lets face it:
1. SFs box office was HUGE
2. The general audience LOVED SF and are longing for more of this Bond
3. As far as I can judge by what I have seen in Trailers, by the script that I know and by many other factors (Waltz, Mendes, the whole Spectre/Blofeld (?) nemesis thing, Belucci, Bautista, Smith...): SP will be actually better than SF at least it will in an ideal way combine everything that different people like about Bond.
Apart from that - and we as fans might have a completely wrong view on that - the marketing campaign ist excellent! The many important partners marketing the film (AM, Jag, ...), having Smith who will activate audiences that are not typical Bond fans, the absolutely consistent dark-mysterious atmosphere of the trailers, the simplistic, stunning and so iconic poster, Bond on the cover of all important magazines, focusing on more Action for the US audiences with TV sports,...
This brings me to the conclusion that SP will open HUGE and in many markets shatter records within the series and beyond it. The movie will get very good word to mouth and go strong over a couple of weeks.
Yet, how this will end up in USD ist unclear, especially with regards to the bad situation of the late China opening
Same here @GeneralGogol.
Moreover, Disney sees its $1.4 Billion global box office gross for "Avengers 2: Age Of Ultron" a 'failure'. But the funny thing is, a similar gross, or an amount of between $1.2 Billion and $1.4 Billion would obviously be seen as a huge HUGE victory for Sony Pictures' "SPECTRE" :-). Same amounts, different reactions from movie exec's ;-).