SPECTRE: It grossed $880 Million Worldwide (..and 2015 was the biggest box office year so far)

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  • Be calm, mates. The most important part of the promotion starts 1 or 2 weeks before the release. And don´t forget that a lot of brands (Heineken, Sony, Omega, Gillette ...) will help SP with the promo.
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 11,119
    antovolk wrote: »
    http://www.thewrap.com/spectre-tracking-for-80-million-plus-opening-at-box-office/

    This is for the U.S./Canada domestic market btw
    ‘Spectre’ Tracking for $80 Million-Plus Opening at Box Office

    Daniel Craig and Bond are pacing to match the debut of “Skyfall” but will have some competition from Charlie Brown and “The Peanuts Movie”
    “Spectre,” the 24th James Bond movie, is heading for an explosive $80 million opening at the domestic box office, according to pre-release tracking that came online Thursday.
    That would put it in the same range as the previous 007 movie “Skyfall,” which debuted to $88 million in November of 2012. It became the highest-grossing Bond film ever, taking in $1.1 billion worldwide for Eon Productions, MGM and distributor Sony Pictures.
    The tracking number, intended to be a marketing gauge more than a box-office indicator, is also impressive because the film’s promotional campaign has yet to fully kick in, and it could go higher in the next two weeks.

    “Spectre” will have its world premiere in London on Monday, Oct. 23, and open in U.K. theaters that same night. It opens in the U.S. and worldwide on Friday, Nov. 6. Pre-sales for “Spectre” in London have been double those for “Skyfall.”
    Daniel Craig is back for his fourth turn as 007 and Sam Mendes is back for his second go-round as director in “Spectre,” after winning praise for the critically lauded “Skyfall,” and Christoph Waltz joins the cast as the baddie.

    The success of “Skyfall,” could have a bearing on the fortunes of “Spectre.” spectre imax day of deadThe considerable goodwill from that film should help “Spectre” get off to a strong start, and the tracking numbers reflect that, but if it fails to measure up to those standards, it may suffer at the box office.
    It is also opening up against Fox’s “The Peanuts Movie,” which analysts believe will open at $50 million plus, whereas “Skyfall” had an open field.

    It has some other challenges. Craig’s recent comments that he’d rather slash his wrist than return for another Bond film aren’t going to help.
    And an early version of the script leaked in the Sony hack, and later the storyline was reportedly tweaked to secure a $20 million incentive from the government in Mexico, where parts of “Spectre” were filmed. On Thursday, IMAX released a poster of Craig as Bond in a Day of the Dead mask (photo) from one of the movie’s opening scenes filmed in that country.
    None of the negativity will matter if the film works however, and the two trailers have been well-received and have ignited broad and positive social media buzz.
    ‘Spectre” is a significant play for all involved. The 22 previous Bond movies have grossed more than $4.1 billion globally. Sony’s deal to distribute the Bond films expires with “Spectre,” and Warner Bros. is expected to take over.


    These articles at this stage are simply put: Too early, too soon. I posted this before. Please read it carefully:



    BoxOffice.com and TheWrap were mostly wrong with these, rather dubious, early tracking figures. I find these articles so bland really. Early tracking for "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" was way off. The actual opening weekend was much smaller as their predicted weekend estimate:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-06-long-range-forecast-mission-impossible-rogue-nation
    Opening weekend: $71,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $197,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $55,520,089
    Current domestic gross: $183,612,153

    Conclusion: "M:I - Rogue Nation" slightly underperformed as compared to their long range forecast. The film will not even come close to $197 Million and is, at least for now, in the USA not as succesful as "Ghost Protocol". Reason for that? The last-notice rescheduling. Which BoxOffice.com should have taken more serious.



    With "Furious 7" it was the other way around really. That movie got pushed enormously by the death of Paul Walker, but also because the film received good reviews. I said that beforehand, BoxOffice.com took that too lightly. One can predict that with some more credible social media figures. One also needs to 'feel' trends properly, and Box.Office.com wasn't doing that:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
    Opening weekend: $115,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $260,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $147,187,040
    Final domestic gross: $351,032,910

    Conclusion: Like "Skyfall" and "The Dark Knight", boxoffice.com completely underestimated other sudden news events that can really drive up a movie, like the death of a co-star or the Olympics or a 50th Anniversary.



    And one last 'long range forecast' prediction: "Kingsman: The Secret Service". Completely underestimated by the same site. Fox really attached all it's smart marketing efforts on that other competing movie "Fifty Shades Of Grey". It basically 'parasited' on that film wonderfully. BoxOffice.com entirely forgot that. Although I have to say that I'm only critical of these stupid long range forecasts. Otherwise it's a good website:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
    Opening weekend: $23,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $60,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $36,206,331
    Final domestic gross: $128,261,724

    Conclusion: Again, this shows how these 'long range forecasts' should be taken with a grain of salt. In the end "Kingsman" was a huge success in the USA and doubled its domestic take as compared to that early prediction



    So I think you're drawing big conclusions too soon. You base your entire prediction on just early tracking? On these rather....flawed attention seeking filler articles? You need to take into account more trendsetting factors. One needs to predict better, 'feel' the mood so to say.


    Then also have a look at this screenshot I made. It shows you how incredible "Skyfall" actually performed with such a low theatre count. Expect a huge rise in theatre count: +4,250 is possible:



    box_office_Sky_Fall_US.jpg



    My conclusion really: These very early tracking figures are mostly wrong. It's like the presidential election polls really one month before the actual elections. There's still too much fluidity with these figures. Expect more solid predictions the week before the release.

    And then, taking into account the relatively low theatre count of "Skyfall" in the US, which will be considerably higher with "SPECTRE" (+4,250?), the recently released China premiere date of November 13th and the ongoing narrative of the "Great Skyfall" and "Who's succeeding Daniel Craig??", I think it's safe to assume "SPECTRE" will at least open with $100 Million or more in the USA. I still think $120 to $130 Million is possible.

    Trust me, "SPECTRE" will soar past the $350 Million domestically. And the opening weekend will make us all go crazy. I stick with my +$1.2 Billion global box office prediction:

    $88 Million --> Opening Weekend

    $0.304 Billion --> Domestic Gross (North-America)
    $0.059 Billion --> China Gross
    $0.010 Billion --> Mexico Gross
    $0.736 Billion --> Rest Of The World TOTAL +
    __________________________________________________________________
    $1.109 Billion --> TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE RESULT "SKYFALL"



    I'd say for "SPECTRE" the full box office breakdown will look like this (prediction off course):

    $135 Million --> Opening Weekend

    $0.365 Billion --> Domestic Gross (North-America)
    $0.170 Billion --> China Gross
    $0.045 Billion --> Mexico Gross
    $0.695 Billion --> Rest Of The World TOTAL +
    __________________________________________________________________
    $1.275 Billion --> TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE RESULT "SPECTRE"
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    edited October 2015 Posts: 9,020
    Don't buy it.

    Domestic it will not match Skyfall but I'll go with 303 million because of higher ticket prices, it will not sell more tickets than Skyfall.

    The rest of the world also will not buy more Spectre tickets than Skyfall. To think otherwise is a delusion. Spectre doesn't have the 50th Anniversary that with absolute certainty helped Skyfall a great deal to do its 1.1 billion. Let alone all the other factors like The Olympics, the histerically good reviews etc.

    So I say because of (much) higher tickets prices Spectre will do 750 million outside the US.

    Which means it will do something like 1.05 billion at most.

    And all this of course only if the reviews are at least as good as with CR or SF.
    If not, we'll be having something like 800 million worldwide.

    Of course I too can only speculate, but it's fun. So there you go :)

    PS: And if the 800 million prediction comes true and anyone dares to say that it is a flop, I will personally climb through my MacBookAir Retina Display and smack him!!
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.
  • Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    I really appreciate all your well-written comments @bondjames. In every topic really. You never use faul language. Always very respectable. But at times.....I do think there's tiny bit of...negativity in our arguments. Nuanced and friendly negativity! But still....;-).
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    Just an example of what I had to experience in the last 7 days.

    - At work: 2012: The excitement over the 50th Anniversary of Bond has everybody from the apprentice to the soon to be retired work-colleagues giddy with excitement!
    Some even claim "Skyfall is the best Bond movie ever" and the movie still hasn't opened.
    "All the critics say it, so it must be true" is the tenor when I call that fact to attention.

    It's 2015 now: earlier this week: "Did you hear? Craig quits, did you read that comments?", "when hits the new Bond movie the theatre?", "what's the name of it?", "I don't know, maybe I'll go see it, Skyfall was ok though".

    I really had to do some serious defending and explaining and lecturing. It was quite depressing. The same people that almost had a fit in 2012 when speaking of the upcoming Skyfall, now couldn't care less or maybe, or maybe not, and did you hear about Craig rather committing suicide...blah, blah, blah...
    Sometimes work can be a drag....

    This certainly is not representative but that really happened and it depressed me.
    3 years ago everybody seemed to be a die-hard Bond fan, those were the times...sigh...
  • Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    Just an example of what I had to experience in the last 7 days.

    - At work: 2012: The excitement over the 50th Anniversary of Bond has everybody from the apprentice to the soon to be retired work-colleagues giddy with excitement!
    Some even claim "Skyfall is the best Bond movie ever" and the movie still hasn't opened.
    "All the critics say it, so it must be true" is the tenor when I call that fact to attention.

    It's 2015 now: earlier this week: "Did you hear? Craig quits, did you read that comments?", "when hits the new Bond movie the theatre?", "what's the name of it?", "I don't know, maybe I'll go see it, Skyfall was ok though".

    I really had to do some serious defending and explaining and lecturing. It was quite depressing. The same people that almost had a fit in 2012 when speaking of the upcoming Skyfall, now couldn't care less or maybe, or maybe not, and did you hear about Craig rather committing suicide...blah, blah, blah...
    Sometimes work can be a drag....

    This certainly is not representative but that really happened and it depressed me.
    3 years ago everybody seemed to be a die-hard Bond fan, those were the times...sigh...

    Sorry, not at my work :-).
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited October 2015 Posts: 23,883
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    I really appreciate all your well-written comments @bondjames. In every topic really. You never use faul language. Always very respectable. But at times.....I do think there's tiny bit of...negativity in our arguments. Nuanced and friendly negativity! But still....;-).

    Thanks for the compliment @Gustav_Graves. I'd say it's more realism on my part. I'm not one for cheerleading, and I'm not responsible for marketing SP to the masses. In fact, I think as a hardcore fan, the best I can do is give an honest assessment of things from my standpoint, rather than put a more positive spin on things than need be.

    While I've not encountered the negativity that @BondJasonBond006 has felt, I am just not feeling the love for this film from people, particularly after Sam Smith, & DC's smack talk. Certainly not to the SF level. I've yet to canvas opinions after Newman's score clips today, but I personally think it's the best thing to come out of the SP canvas in the last month.

    My estimate is $950m to $1bn, which will make SP a top 10 film for 2015 and the 2nd highest grossing Bond film of all time. There's no shame in that imho.
  • Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    I really appreciate all your well-written comments @bondjames. In every topic really. You never use faul language. Always very respectable. But at times.....I do think there's tiny bit of...negativity in our arguments. Nuanced and friendly negativity! But still....;-).

    Thanks for the compliment @Gustav_Graves. I'd say it's more realism on my part. I'm not one for cheerleading, and I'm not responsible for marketing SP to the masses. In fact, I think as a hardcore fan, the best I can do is give an honest assessment of things from my standpoint, rather than put a more positive spin on things than need be.

    That's what I do too. But....implying that I am cheerleading? I see it differently. We BOTH are realists. You are a realist with a slightly conservative, negative perspective on things. And I am a realist with a slightly more progressive, positive attitude. In between there could be even more truth :-)
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,400
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    Just an example of what I had to experience in the last 7 days.

    - At work: 2012: The excitement over the 50th Anniversary of Bond has everybody from the apprentice to the soon to be retired work-colleagues giddy with excitement!
    Some even claim "Skyfall is the best Bond movie ever" and the movie still hasn't opened.
    "All the critics say it, so it must be true" is the tenor when I call that fact to attention.

    It's 2015 now: earlier this week: "Did you hear? Craig quits, did you read that comments?", "when hits the new Bond movie the theatre?", "what's the name of it?", "I don't know, maybe I'll go see it, Skyfall was ok though".

    I really had to do some serious defending and explaining and lecturing. It was quite depressing. The same people that almost had a fit in 2012 when speaking of the upcoming Skyfall, now couldn't care less or maybe, or maybe not, and did you hear about Craig rather committing suicide...blah, blah, blah...
    Sometimes work can be a drag....

    This certainly is not representative but that really happened and it depressed me.
    3 years ago everybody seemed to be a die-hard Bond fan, those were the times...sigh...

    I know, you're right. it's insane! Three years ago a friend of mine was bugging me to go and see Skyfall again and again. Now I ask him if he is excited for the new Bond movie coming out, he says 'not sure if it's my cup of tea. Good job, EON marketing.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited October 2015 Posts: 23,883
    bondjames wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    I'm still saying between $950m and $1bn tops. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement for this installment outside of the die-hards (which means all of us) from what I can tell.

    Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.

    I really appreciate all your well-written comments @bondjames. In every topic really. You never use faul language. Always very respectable. But at times.....I do think there's tiny bit of...negativity in our arguments. Nuanced and friendly negativity! But still....;-).

    Thanks for the compliment @Gustav_Graves. I'd say it's more realism on my part. I'm not one for cheerleading, and I'm not responsible for marketing SP to the masses. In fact, I think as a hardcore fan, the best I can do is give an honest assessment of things from my standpoint, rather than put a more positive spin on things than need be.

    That's what I do too. But....implying that I am cheerleading? I see it differently. We BOTH are realists. You are a realist with a slightly conservative, negative perspective on things. And I am a realist with a slightly more progressive, positive attitude. In between there could be even more truth :-)

    No, don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting you are cheerleading, just that I shouldn't be.

    I'm not questioning your opinion and estimates either. We differ in our view on where things will end up, and you're right - it's likely going to be in the middle somewhere.

    Having said that, I'm sure you'll agree that the enthusiasm level is not the same among the general public for this film compared to SF... That's important because SP needs to get the butts in the seats within the first two weeks before the other stuff hits the market.

    I'm sure it will do very well in the UK and that will start things off well, but from there on it's anybody's guess.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    About that Peanuts Movie.
    Some claim this will hurt Spectre.

    I can't imagine that.

    The Peanuts as much as I loved them as a kid haven't been relevant for over 20 years (at least around here).
    I guess in the US they are still iconic and every kid knows them.

    A new Simpson movie, now that could hurt any competition!
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,400
    Not good news:

    Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube

    SPECTRE trailer has 14 million views on youtube

  • MurdockMurdock The minus world
    Posts: 16,351
    Not good news:

    Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube
    Three years later. How many did it have before the film was release? 8-|
  • Not good news:

    Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube

    SPECTRE trailer has 14 million views on youtube

    Video that's been on youtube for 3 and a half years has been seen more times than video thats been there for three months. Shocking news!
  • aaron819aaron819 Switzerland
    Posts: 1,208
    @Mendes4Lyfe To remind you Skyfall was released 3 years ago and the Spectre trailer was released 4 months ago. I remember when the SF trailer was released in the first 4 months it got like 9-10 million views.
  • mcdonbbmcdonbb deep in the Heart of Texas
    Posts: 4,116
    If word of mouth and critics then SP will the best it can.. .and we call relax more.
  • Posts: 1,314
    I see no reason why spectre can't be to sky fall what thunderball was to gold finger

    Here in the UK bond is held with tremendous affection. Consider 10% of the total gross of SF came just from here.

    Don't know what it's like elsewhere in the world it most people who mention it are looking forward to it, have no idea about leaks, don't read GQ Etc.

  • edited October 2015 Posts: 486
    I don't get the negativity about SPECTRE. Yes SF may have had a boost from the 50th anniversary and the Olympics but all of that goodwill would have been negated if SF had proved a dud.

    The first reviews of SP will be with us before we know it and I can't recall anyone proclaiming SF to be the best ever, nor for it to do as well as it did, until the reviews came in.

    SF won even more fans for the franchise than CR (a friend of mine was a die hard Brosnan fan and loathed Craig until SF) and all of that audience will be back if SP gets good reviews. SP is EON, Craig and Mendes trying to do SF better and also combined with some more of the traditional elements from the more fantastical films. If they tread that fine line with aplomb SP will be huge.

    I agree with Matt007 too. Bond is something special in the UK. Even back to the fondness for the Christmas Day TV premieres. There will be huge swaithes of people who like myself aren't great cinema goers but will always make a point of see the new Bond film at the cinema. These sort of people who wont even have seen the negative Sony leaks stuff on geeky film websites.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    edited October 2015 Posts: 9,020
    I must say those Sony leaks never really made a lot of headlines around here. I guess the biggest fuss about that happened in the US and maybe the UK, I'm not sure.

    What made headlines and for weeks if not months was all those nude pictures of the famous actresses leaked.

    If anything, then the out of context worldwide printed remarks of Craig may have some negative effect...maybe.

    Otherwise there is nothing standing in Spectre's way. But to think the world waited for Spectre is a bit rose-coloured too, the world did wait for Skyfall, that's for sure.

    Please keep in mind that even if Spectre would do "only" 800-900 million USD it still will be a great success, even when it's not what probably gets expected from it.
    And 800-900 million wouldn't be setback but a chance for EON to keep things reasonable in the future.

    And if it grosses 1.5 billion then we'll all be happy ever after anyway and have a big fat forum party!!
  • Posts: 11,119
    Not good news:

    Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube

    SPECTRE trailer has 14 million views on youtube

    That Skyfall trailer got three years to arrive at that number :-).
  • Posts: 625
    Not good news:

    Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube

    SPECTRE trailer has 14 million views on youtube

    That Skyfall trailer got three years to arrive at that number :-).

    But it already arrived at that number in 2012.
    The Skyfall-trailer-click-count did not go up a lot in the last 3 years.
  • Posts: 725
    Hope I'm off base, but it seems that the few posters who really, really dislike Craig Bond seem to almost hope that SP does not do well. Either they know it will mean he likely wouldn't return for B25 because of it, or they just want to gloat over it, or both..

    As I posted previously, I think SP has had to many issues to overcome to go near, or over 1billion. But I still think a 800-850 BO would be a big success compared to CR and QOS. SF's massive BO puts huge pressure on SP in the press to do as well, which I don't think is fair, as SF had a much easier path to that huge BO figure.

    Hopefully it will get some great early reviews and that should help. A terrific film is no guarantee for a huge BO, but it should help.
  • Posts: 1,680
    Star Wars might hold it from reaching 1 billion.
  • Posts: 725
    Bridge of Spies is getting very good reviews, and is opening very close to SP. Hanks is always good, and I think there have been way too many Spy films this year, many of them copying all kinds of Bond stuff. Spy film fatigue, which I think hurt Uncle, could hurt SP. MI5 also has not done as well as I expected, given it's great reviews. It is grossing less than MI4. SP will be lucky to get the same Rotten Tomatoes critics score. I just don't think SP is going to have an easy path to anything near 1 billion. Also, China may be opening early, but the way they are opening all of the biggest films one week after the next right after SP is going to kill off any chance SP had for a big haul in China.
  • doubleoegodoubleoego #LightWork
    Posts: 11,139
    Fact is all these other spy movies aren't Bond and most if not all that have seen those movies know they're aping Bond to some degree. People want and will see the real thing. It's Bond and he's bigger than ever. Sometimes the fans are too deep in the forest to see the trees. When SP gets great reviews and kills it at the BO I'm ready to call out all the doubters, naysayers and zealous fear mongerers.
  • Posts: 725
    So noting one's concerns that the film may not hit SF's same BO makes one a "zealous fear mongerer." No one on this site, including you, has a lock on what will happen. We all want a great film, and huge BO, but there are plenty of differing views on what will happen. If everyone agreed with you, this would be a very boring site.
  • Posts: 11,119
    smitty wrote: »
    Bridge of Spies is getting very good reviews, and is opening very close to SP. Hanks is always good, and I think there have been way too many Spy films this year, many of them copying all kinds of Bond stuff. Spy film fatigue, which I think hurt Uncle, could hurt SP. MI5 also has not done as well as I expected, given it's great reviews. It is grossing less than MI4. SP will be lucky to get the same Rotten Tomatoes critics score. I just don't think SP is going to have an easy path to anything near 1 billion. Also, China may be opening early, but the way they are opening all of the biggest films one week after the next right after SP is going to kill off any chance SP had for a big haul in China.

    There's a lot of nonsense in your arguments. Sorry @Smitty....

    First of all, it may seem that there are so many spy movies coming out this year. And it's a fact really. But it's only WE who mockingly call it "The 2015 Spy Craze". Me included :-). But there is no real spy craze....and certainly not a so called 'spy fatigue'. These are not the 1960's, but the 2010's. Young kids aren't getting crazy over spy merchandise and spy toys. There won't be insanely long queues in front of cinema's. Most ordinary audiences see movies like "Kingsman", "Mission: Impossible 5" and "UNCLE" nothing more than good, fun action movies, NOT spy movies.

    Then "Bridge Of Spies". I am looking forward to this possible Oscar contender. But that's what it is: A typical good Oscar movie, and NOT an ordinary 'spy blockbuster'. "Bridge Of Spies" will do as well as other Spielberg movies, like "Lincoln" and "Catch Me If You Can". That means a box office of $275 Million to max. $350 Million. So it'll be NO danger to "SPECTRE" at all.

    The reviews of "SPECTRE".........well @Smitty, you presume a great deal if you say that "SPECTRE" 'should be lucky' to receive the same kind of critics as compared to "Skyfall". How the hell do you know that?!?! Do you 'spy' on the most critically acclaimed reviewers from big newspapers? "SPECTRE" hasn't even screened yet for them, so this is bullocks. It's all a matter of waiting really. Sometimes great reviews help, but great reviews are not the only thing that drive the success of typical blockbuster movies (Look to the OK-but-not-great-reviews for "Jurassic World", "Avengers 2" and "Furious 7". All three movies did less well on Rotten Tomatoes as compared to "Skyfall").

    One last thing....I just don't GET all this negativity on this board. I think it are more nerves from Bond fans in here than any kind of 'realism' or 'pragmatism'. The main narrative of "SPECTRE" is, that it's "The sequel to Skyfall". Similar to "The Dark Knight Rises" riding the waves of success of "The Dark Knight". So this narrative, and AGAIN we all underestimate this, will be incredibly helpful for "SPECTRE". It's a narrative that also helped "Thunderball" after "Goldfinger", and that 4th Bond film wasn't by far as well received as "Goldfinger".

    We are discussing "SPECTRE" to death on this board. And I think it's clouding our realistic, pragmatic judgement on things.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,400
    smitty wrote: »
    Bridge of Spies is getting very good reviews, and is opening very close to SP. Hanks is always good, and I think there have been way too many Spy films this year, many of them copying all kinds of Bond stuff. Spy film fatigue, which I think hurt Uncle, could hurt SP. MI5 also has not done as well as I expected, given it's great reviews. It is grossing less than MI4. SP will be lucky to get the same Rotten Tomatoes critics score. I just don't think SP is going to have an easy path to anything near 1 billion. Also, China may be opening early, but the way they are opening all of the biggest films one week after the next right after SP is going to kill off any chance SP had for a big haul in China.

    There's a lot of nonsense in your arguments. Sorry @Smitty....

    First of all, it may seem that there are so many spy movies coming out this year. And it's a fact really. But it's only WE who mockingly call it "The 2015 Spy Craze". Me included :-). But there is no real spy craze....and certainly not a so called 'spy fatigue'. These are not the 1960's, but the 2010's. Young kids aren't getting crazy over spy merchandise and spy toys. There won't be insanely long queues in front of cinema's. Most ordinary audiences see movies like "Kingsman", "Mission: Impossible 5" and "UNCLE" nothing more than good, fun action movies, NOT spy movies.

    Then "Bridge Of Spies". I am looking forward to this possible Oscar contender. But that's what it is: A typical good Oscar movie, and NOT an ordinary 'spy blockbuster'. "Bridge Of Spies" will do as well as other Spielberg movies, like "Lincoln" and "Catch Me If You Can". That means a box office of $275 Million to max. $350 Million. So it'll be NO danger to "SPECTRE" at all.

    The reviews of "SPECTRE".........well @Smitty, you presume a great deal if you say that "SPECTRE" 'should be lucky' to receive the same kind of critics as compared to "Skyfall". How the hell do you know that?!?! Do you 'spy' on the most critically acclaimed reviewers from big newspapers? "SPECTRE" hasn't even screened yet for them, so this is bullocks. It's all a matter of waiting really. Sometimes great reviews help, but great reviews are not the only thing that drive the success of typical blockbuster movies (Look to the OK-but-not-great-reviews for "Jurassic World", "Avengers 2" and "Furious 7". All three movies did less well on Rotten Tomatoes as compared to "Skyfall").

    One last thing....I just don't GET all this negativity on this board. I think it are more nerves from Bond fans in here than any kind of 'realism' or 'pragmatism'. The main narrative of "SPECTRE" is, that it's "The sequel to Skyfall". Similar to "The Dark Knight Rises" riding the waves of success of "The Dark Knight". So this narrative, and AGAIN we all underestimate this, will be incredibly helpful for "SPECTRE". It's a narrative that also helped "Thunderball" after "Goldfinger", and that 4th Bond film wasn't by far as well received as "Goldfinger".

    We are discussing "SPECTRE" to death on this board. And I think it's clouding our realistic, pragmatic judgement on things.

    You only see it as negativity because your own expectations are so insanely optimistic. Sorry we don't all join in on your fantasy of SPECTRE blowing Skyfall away, some of us are realists.
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 389
    Bridge of Spies predictions for this weekend: (2,811 theaters) - $19,677,000
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4113&p=.htm
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