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These articles at this stage are simply put: Too early, too soon. I posted this before. Please read it carefully:
Then also have a look at this screenshot I made. It shows you how incredible "Skyfall" actually performed with such a low theatre count. Expect a huge rise in theatre count: +4,250 is possible:
My conclusion really: These very early tracking figures are mostly wrong. It's like the presidential election polls really one month before the actual elections. There's still too much fluidity with these figures. Expect more solid predictions the week before the release.
And then, taking into account the relatively low theatre count of "Skyfall" in the US, which will be considerably higher with "SPECTRE" (+4,250?), the recently released China premiere date of November 13th and the ongoing narrative of the "Great Skyfall" and "Who's succeeding Daniel Craig??", I think it's safe to assume "SPECTRE" will at least open with $100 Million or more in the USA. I still think $120 to $130 Million is possible.
Trust me, "SPECTRE" will soar past the $350 Million domestically. And the opening weekend will make us all go crazy. I stick with my +$1.2 Billion global box office prediction:
$88 Million --> Opening Weekend
$0.304 Billion --> Domestic Gross (North-America)
$0.059 Billion --> China Gross
$0.010 Billion --> Mexico Gross
$0.736 Billion --> Rest Of The World TOTAL +
__________________________________________________________________
$1.109 Billion --> TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE RESULT "SKYFALL"
I'd say for "SPECTRE" the full box office breakdown will look like this (prediction off course):
$135 Million --> Opening Weekend
$0.365 Billion --> Domestic Gross (North-America)
$0.170 Billion --> China Gross
$0.045 Billion --> Mexico Gross
$0.695 Billion --> Rest Of The World TOTAL +
__________________________________________________________________
$1.275 Billion --> TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE RESULT "SPECTRE"
Domestic it will not match Skyfall but I'll go with 303 million because of higher ticket prices, it will not sell more tickets than Skyfall.
The rest of the world also will not buy more Spectre tickets than Skyfall. To think otherwise is a delusion. Spectre doesn't have the 50th Anniversary that with absolute certainty helped Skyfall a great deal to do its 1.1 billion. Let alone all the other factors like The Olympics, the histerically good reviews etc.
So I say because of (much) higher tickets prices Spectre will do 750 million outside the US.
Which means it will do something like 1.05 billion at most.
And all this of course only if the reviews are at least as good as with CR or SF.
If not, we'll be having something like 800 million worldwide.
Of course I too can only speculate, but it's fun. So there you go :)
PS: And if the 800 million prediction comes true and anyone dares to say that it is a flop, I will personally climb through my MacBookAir Retina Display and smack him!!
Also, SP will have a lot to do to crack top 5 for 2015 in global rankings. That's something CR & SF both achieved. The best SP can hope for is 6th, or probably 7th, after SW7 takes #1.
I really appreciate all your well-written comments @bondjames. In every topic really. You never use faul language. Always very respectable. But at times.....I do think there's tiny bit of...negativity in our arguments. Nuanced and friendly negativity! But still....;-).
Just an example of what I had to experience in the last 7 days.
- At work: 2012: The excitement over the 50th Anniversary of Bond has everybody from the apprentice to the soon to be retired work-colleagues giddy with excitement!
Some even claim "Skyfall is the best Bond movie ever" and the movie still hasn't opened.
"All the critics say it, so it must be true" is the tenor when I call that fact to attention.
It's 2015 now: earlier this week: "Did you hear? Craig quits, did you read that comments?", "when hits the new Bond movie the theatre?", "what's the name of it?", "I don't know, maybe I'll go see it, Skyfall was ok though".
I really had to do some serious defending and explaining and lecturing. It was quite depressing. The same people that almost had a fit in 2012 when speaking of the upcoming Skyfall, now couldn't care less or maybe, or maybe not, and did you hear about Craig rather committing suicide...blah, blah, blah...
Sometimes work can be a drag....
This certainly is not representative but that really happened and it depressed me.
3 years ago everybody seemed to be a die-hard Bond fan, those were the times...sigh...
Sorry, not at my work :-).
Thanks for the compliment @Gustav_Graves. I'd say it's more realism on my part. I'm not one for cheerleading, and I'm not responsible for marketing SP to the masses. In fact, I think as a hardcore fan, the best I can do is give an honest assessment of things from my standpoint, rather than put a more positive spin on things than need be.
While I've not encountered the negativity that @BondJasonBond006 has felt, I am just not feeling the love for this film from people, particularly after Sam Smith, & DC's smack talk. Certainly not to the SF level. I've yet to canvas opinions after Newman's score clips today, but I personally think it's the best thing to come out of the SP canvas in the last month.
My estimate is $950m to $1bn, which will make SP a top 10 film for 2015 and the 2nd highest grossing Bond film of all time. There's no shame in that imho.
That's what I do too. But....implying that I am cheerleading? I see it differently. We BOTH are realists. You are a realist with a slightly conservative, negative perspective on things. And I am a realist with a slightly more progressive, positive attitude. In between there could be even more truth :-)
I know, you're right. it's insane! Three years ago a friend of mine was bugging me to go and see Skyfall again and again. Now I ask him if he is excited for the new Bond movie coming out, he says 'not sure if it's my cup of tea. Good job, EON marketing.
No, don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting you are cheerleading, just that I shouldn't be.
I'm not questioning your opinion and estimates either. We differ in our view on where things will end up, and you're right - it's likely going to be in the middle somewhere.
Having said that, I'm sure you'll agree that the enthusiasm level is not the same among the general public for this film compared to SF... That's important because SP needs to get the butts in the seats within the first two weeks before the other stuff hits the market.
I'm sure it will do very well in the UK and that will start things off well, but from there on it's anybody's guess.
Some claim this will hurt Spectre.
I can't imagine that.
The Peanuts as much as I loved them as a kid haven't been relevant for over 20 years (at least around here).
I guess in the US they are still iconic and every kid knows them.
A new Simpson movie, now that could hurt any competition!
Skyfall trailer has 23 million views on youtube
SPECTRE trailer has 14 million views on youtube
Video that's been on youtube for 3 and a half years has been seen more times than video thats been there for three months. Shocking news!
Here in the UK bond is held with tremendous affection. Consider 10% of the total gross of SF came just from here.
Don't know what it's like elsewhere in the world it most people who mention it are looking forward to it, have no idea about leaks, don't read GQ Etc.
The first reviews of SP will be with us before we know it and I can't recall anyone proclaiming SF to be the best ever, nor for it to do as well as it did, until the reviews came in.
SF won even more fans for the franchise than CR (a friend of mine was a die hard Brosnan fan and loathed Craig until SF) and all of that audience will be back if SP gets good reviews. SP is EON, Craig and Mendes trying to do SF better and also combined with some more of the traditional elements from the more fantastical films. If they tread that fine line with aplomb SP will be huge.
I agree with Matt007 too. Bond is something special in the UK. Even back to the fondness for the Christmas Day TV premieres. There will be huge swaithes of people who like myself aren't great cinema goers but will always make a point of see the new Bond film at the cinema. These sort of people who wont even have seen the negative Sony leaks stuff on geeky film websites.
What made headlines and for weeks if not months was all those nude pictures of the famous actresses leaked.
If anything, then the out of context worldwide printed remarks of Craig may have some negative effect...maybe.
Otherwise there is nothing standing in Spectre's way. But to think the world waited for Spectre is a bit rose-coloured too, the world did wait for Skyfall, that's for sure.
Please keep in mind that even if Spectre would do "only" 800-900 million USD it still will be a great success, even when it's not what probably gets expected from it.
And 800-900 million wouldn't be setback but a chance for EON to keep things reasonable in the future.
And if it grosses 1.5 billion then we'll all be happy ever after anyway and have a big fat forum party!!
That Skyfall trailer got three years to arrive at that number :-).
But it already arrived at that number in 2012.
The Skyfall-trailer-click-count did not go up a lot in the last 3 years.
As I posted previously, I think SP has had to many issues to overcome to go near, or over 1billion. But I still think a 800-850 BO would be a big success compared to CR and QOS. SF's massive BO puts huge pressure on SP in the press to do as well, which I don't think is fair, as SF had a much easier path to that huge BO figure.
Hopefully it will get some great early reviews and that should help. A terrific film is no guarantee for a huge BO, but it should help.
There's a lot of nonsense in your arguments. Sorry @Smitty....
First of all, it may seem that there are so many spy movies coming out this year. And it's a fact really. But it's only WE who mockingly call it "The 2015 Spy Craze". Me included :-). But there is no real spy craze....and certainly not a so called 'spy fatigue'. These are not the 1960's, but the 2010's. Young kids aren't getting crazy over spy merchandise and spy toys. There won't be insanely long queues in front of cinema's. Most ordinary audiences see movies like "Kingsman", "Mission: Impossible 5" and "UNCLE" nothing more than good, fun action movies, NOT spy movies.
Then "Bridge Of Spies". I am looking forward to this possible Oscar contender. But that's what it is: A typical good Oscar movie, and NOT an ordinary 'spy blockbuster'. "Bridge Of Spies" will do as well as other Spielberg movies, like "Lincoln" and "Catch Me If You Can". That means a box office of $275 Million to max. $350 Million. So it'll be NO danger to "SPECTRE" at all.
The reviews of "SPECTRE".........well @Smitty, you presume a great deal if you say that "SPECTRE" 'should be lucky' to receive the same kind of critics as compared to "Skyfall". How the hell do you know that?!?! Do you 'spy' on the most critically acclaimed reviewers from big newspapers? "SPECTRE" hasn't even screened yet for them, so this is bullocks. It's all a matter of waiting really. Sometimes great reviews help, but great reviews are not the only thing that drive the success of typical blockbuster movies (Look to the OK-but-not-great-reviews for "Jurassic World", "Avengers 2" and "Furious 7". All three movies did less well on Rotten Tomatoes as compared to "Skyfall").
One last thing....I just don't GET all this negativity on this board. I think it are more nerves from Bond fans in here than any kind of 'realism' or 'pragmatism'. The main narrative of "SPECTRE" is, that it's "The sequel to Skyfall". Similar to "The Dark Knight Rises" riding the waves of success of "The Dark Knight". So this narrative, and AGAIN we all underestimate this, will be incredibly helpful for "SPECTRE". It's a narrative that also helped "Thunderball" after "Goldfinger", and that 4th Bond film wasn't by far as well received as "Goldfinger".
We are discussing "SPECTRE" to death on this board. And I think it's clouding our realistic, pragmatic judgement on things.
You only see it as negativity because your own expectations are so insanely optimistic. Sorry we don't all join in on your fantasy of SPECTRE blowing Skyfall away, some of us are realists.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4113&p=.htm