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I got that story thrown to my head several times back in 2012 for "Skyfall". Back then, until the very premiere of the film, most Bond fans in here didn't see all this excitement for the film, because they all were too negative. I several times heard unrealistic predictions for "Skyfall"s global box office of max. $700 Million. I found that ridiculous.
And when I was saying that "Furious 7" would be a near-certified 1 Billion Dollar hit, I equally got a lot of negativity thrown at me.
I am used to it. I do think that negativity on this forum, sadly enough, prevails a bit too much. Call my expectations 'insanely optimistic'. Call me 'a closeted box office weirdo stuck in his own fantasy'. I don't care :-).
By the way, movie company Sony Pictures seems to be really catching up. "The Perfect Guy" and "Hotel Transylvania 2" are doing very well. And "Goosebumps" seems to ending on top of upcoming box office weekend. And that's a 2nd animation movie for Sony doing well.
Concerning "Bridge Of Spies": Like I said, a typical Steven Spielberg opening. $19,677,000 sounds nice, but it will be 3rd place...and it's not even close to become a danger to "SPECTRE".
I was speaking in general not specifically about comparisons to SF's BO. The fact is, too many people here subscribe to OTT pessimism.
Well some people will call you that here if you dare say something like that.
I understand your fear very well. We are loving this franchise and don't want it to fail. Up to QOS there was no big fear a Bond could "flop", the 95-08 years were evenly successful in ticket sales and had a steady grow box office wise because of tickets getting more expensive yearly.
SF put the bar very high and SP will be directly compared BO wise to SF.
The media is always quick to declare a "flop" even when there is none.
I am worried too, I love everything Bond. I want SP to succeed.
Sharing those worries with the forum is a way to express yourself.
I never DID call you a 'closeted BO weirdo'. That's not my style, personal attacks. I'm classier than that.
:)>-
Dear Jason. I just don't get all the 'fear' for SF's box office success. Let's say SP scores $100 Million less than SF (which translates to a rounded $1 Billion). Even then....the narrative will be "SPECTRE slightly less succesful as Skyfall, but still huge box office success for Sony" and not "SPECTRE was a flop".
We should be happy that we had this insane box office success for SF, because it gives Sony/EON more certainty that the next one will be a success. With a $1.1 Billion dollar figure, you can 'risk' a lower box office result for SP. That was entirely different from CR's follow-up QOS.
QOS did less than CR. Nobody panicked.
I admire your optimism but sometimes that can lead to a UNCLE scenario my handsome friend @Gustav_Graves ;)
This is how I see it:
- SF was a HUGE success at the box office; it wasn't a front-loaded success though, it "earned" its success over many weeks
- Why was that? Because the huge majority of fans and - more important - general audiences liked it more than they had ever expected to enjoy a Bond movie. This is a feeling that sticks
- This was all supported by some of the best reviews a Bond movie ever received
- Did the "media hype" with Olympia, the anniversary and Adele help? Yes but only for the first week; all after that is purely due to the quality of the film itself; anyway all this marketing only helps to raise attention for a movie but SP does not need that anymore. EVERYONE will know that the new movie will be released and due to the positive experience with SF they will make sure not to miss it
What else speaks for SP?
- With Christoph Waltz, the movie has another big asset; many people have been waiting to see Waltz as a Bond villain
- Sam Smith's Song might not please the average Fan, but it does exactly what it is supposed to do: It adresses people that would normally not get excited for a Bond movie
- Dave Bautista might bring in some additional Marvel fans and US audiences
- In general, the cast is extraordinary strong and adresses very different kinds of audiences
- The critics in general are very much in favor of Mendes and his style (seriously, SF did not deserve ALL of its appraisal, did it?)
- With Spectre's return, and the possibility of Bond's nemesis being back, this even more gets a massive push as a potential huge and epic event, potentially combining the strength of the new era with everything people loved about the "old ones"; it also has this comic-flavor to it - the hero finally facing its evil nemesis
What does that mean for SP?`
- SP has the greatest advantage on its side: A predecessor that not only was a huge financial success but also very much loved by the general audiences
- Expect anyone that liked SF also going to see SP
- The "hype" for Bond - in my humble opionion - is as strong as never before (at least since the mid 60s); do we recognise that? Not that much because it is not about us fans that spend all our time on fan boards anyway, it is with the general audiences that will suddenly pop up once the movie is releases
So in general, I expect the biggest Bond opening ever. Much bigger than we would expect right now!
What does it mean in numbers?
- Normally SP would profit from inflation when we talk gross figures (not tickets sold)
- However, in many of the major markets for SF/SP, the FX rate has actually developed in a negative direction meaning that if SP sells as many tickets in these regions as SF, it will NOT end up at the same box office (in USD).
- Of course, China means a big opportunity for SP as SF did relatively poor their and movies like T-G and M:I-RN have shown what should be possible for a Bond movie their
Overall:
- SP will for sure break records during its first week of release
- From their on - like always - everything will depend on its quality and reviews (which will be favorable due to Waltz, Mendes, Bautista, the classic elements...).
- I would expect this to be the TB to SF's GF: Everything up to 1.5 bn is possible
But there is also a risk that we suddenly get a change of general opinion:
- Some might say, SP is a clear step away from the successful reboot towards more ordinary Brosnan-like Action vehicles
- Waltz has overdone his typical villain-character; people migt say "oh no not again" or "I had expected more from him"
- The kind of appraisal that CR and especially SF received automatically leads to a backlash; first critics will say "we have seen it all before"... "no more emotional childhood Bond stuff"... "Mendes has overdone it"...
Ooowh absolutely, that was a lacklustre prediction :(. But then again, I'm better at predicting bigger movies ;-).
Yes I like bigger better too :))
Sound a very reasonable prediction @danielcc
From my perspective, a few things should be considered, to separate the noise from reality and keep us on an even keel once this film is released:
1st Weekend Gross (more or less a given - so let's try to keep a level head when reports come in):
1. SP will inevitably beat the SF UK opening box office weekend numbers. They are releasing this film on a Monday in the UK, intentionally to give it a longer run so the comparatives will not be all that clear/meaningful. So expect an all time high UK weekend gross to start the marketing buzz off very positively
2. SP will need to crack the $80m number for the US weekend box office - since that figure has already been bandied about. Anything less will be seen as a failure. I expect it to exceed it ($80m is too low, almost intentionally) and potentially exceed the SF $88m
Oher Factors (this is where it really matters - so this must be watched):
1. 2nd & 3rd week grosses - this is more critical than we think. With the highly competitive releases coming out a few weeks after SP releases, it has to hold its gross in the 2nd and 3rd weeks in particular. This is something SF did very well (unusually so) but it did not have meaningful competition. That fact cannot be underestimated so I will restate it for emphasis- SF did not have meaningful competition & 2nd/3rd wk grosses are critical.
2. % of IMAX take - SF benefited in a big way from the inflated IMAX grosses. I recall it having a clear run of IMAX theatres for an extended period of time in 2012. I think many went to see SF in IMAX because it was a beautiful film to look at (and was showcased as such in the trailers with Deakin's magnificent cinematography) and that helped its gross. SP will have to hold its share of IMAX for a similar period to get the higher $ numbers in.
3. UK reviews - this was a critical component of SF marketing as I recall. For 2 weeks prior to US release, all we heard was the 'great' reviews from across the pond that populated RT. That helped to create sustainable buzz and had a 'cognitive bias' effect on US reviewers, who were less likely to denigrate a film that had already been a huge success with the public and critics in the UK. We will need to watch those UK reviews closely. I expect them to be very positive......but if they are not, then watch out!
4. buzz about villain - there was huge buzz about Bardem's Silva prior to SF and he received mainly positive reviews as a villain. 'Return to classic Bond villain' etc. were all over the place and helped boost the film. The fact that Bardem was compared to Ledger's Joker also helped, as did his somewhat strange, flamboyant appearance in the trailers. If we get similar positives coming from UK reviews for Waltz in SP, then that will bode well. The villain's importance cannot be overstated in helping box office. Bond needs a suitable nemesis. If there are unfavourable comparisons between 'SP Waltz' & 'Basterds Waltz' or 'Django Waltz', or even 'SP Waltz' & 'SF Silva', then we're in trouble.
5. Overall narrative being spun by the media - if the focus is on negative comparisons to SF (film quality or box office) or continued focus on DC's statements/performance (spun as being bad because he's no longer interested in being Bond), then we are in trouble. If the narrative is however on 'classic Bond feel etc.' then we're good. Critically, it's important that the buzz is not on comparative SF/SP box office predictions (negative predictions can derail buzz even if the actual numbers come in higher.....it's all about media expectations vs. reality)
6. Gross of other films & reviews vs. expectations - this is also key. If Peanuts blows everyone away, then on the margin this can impact SP (I realize they are not direct competitors, but buzz is important. Casual fans tend to see the film that is creating the most buzz). Same with any other film being released in the 2-3 wk period (Hunger Games etc.).
I came across an interesting article in Forbes discussing this that I'm posting below. I hope everyone can view it.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/09/28/box-office-spectre-is-not-a-bomb-if-it-fails-to-top-skyfall/
What counts is what your friend, brother, neighbour or co-worker thinks. Which also means that "we" as the early birds have it partly in our hand how we talk about the movie.
The average Joe does not read a sophisticated film review by a newspaper critic to decide whether he wants to see a movie. But if all the people tell him how great it was and that he must see it, he will. Which does not mean that exceptionally good reviews won't help. They will if they are used as a marketing instrument to make the people feel that this movie is really good.
By the way: Outside the US (and the UK, it seems), IMAX is completely irrelevant. In fact there isnt a single regular IMAX cinema these days in Germany as one of the biggest movie markets.
I would not hope for SP to stay at the same level for wk 2 or 3. This only happens with completely underestimated movies. However, with SP everyone know exactly what to expect.
Therefore I predict a MUCH HIGHER first weekend. the drop for the second (US) weeknd should then be a normal 40% which would still be exceptionally good
I disagree on RT being completely irrelevant. It is 'the go to site' for reviews, and several people I know do consult that site prior to deciding which film to see. Their social circle is critical too, but so is RT, IMDB & other review sites. They are, in fact, a 'marketing instrument' indeed. The UK reviews were sitting on RT for a two full weeks prior to US release and that created massive buzz for SF before anyone even saw the film stateside. Many people were telling me about the new Bond film being reportedly fantastic (courtesy of RT). Furthermore, as I said, it had an effect on US reviews as well (less likely to be negative if the 'normally known to be critical UK reviewers are all ecstatic').
IMAX is important for $ grosses on the margin. That's its key benefit. So it's not completely irrelevant, because for SP to beat SF in $ terms (which is the point of this thread) marginal $ gross amounts matter.
Yes, of course it will have a MICH HIGHER opening weekend. It needs it, because we are coming off the biggest Bond film in nearly 45 years. SP grosses will be 'front loaded'. That's a given and necessary. The % drop in weeks 2 and 3 will then dictate where it goes from there. It will either be a normal drop off, a lesser drop off, or a steeper drop off. That will also be a further 'marketing tool' because it will get press on major websites.....either good or bad.
RT was key in "causing" the German-language region media to have a positive tenor on Skyfall!
IMAX is completely irrelevant here, Switzerland for instance has zero IMAX screens, there is one since ages in a big exhibition complex in Lucerne but that is not a regular cinema.
However, those people would almost automatically go and see a Bond movie anyhow.
Bond's success is not about getting the 18-30 year old Action/Spy movie fans in the seats. It is about adressing all the other general audiences that would normally not go. This is key to the success of the Craig era (older people, women... are no enjoying Bond movies). I doubt that those people would make up their mind based on a website like RT or even imdb.
Sometimes I think we fans are far too deep into this fanboy/movie-geek-stuff and websites that we actually think they are of major importance to the average movie goer :-)
What I still think is very relevant and decisive is the US market. There I see a huge potential from actually getting a much wider release/theater count and more IMAX share.
And I'm very positive about it as the whole Waltz/Spectre/Bautista thing is really going into the right direction for US audiences
One more thing that I forgot to mention (but it's obvious) is relative expectations.
The expectations for SF were rather low due to QoS not being up to standards for a lot of folks (whether valid or not is a different discussion).
SP is following in SF's footsteps, and expectations are really high. In a way, the negative Sam Smith song discussion and DC's comments discussion have been good to reduce unrealistic expectations early..... So if SP the film is any good, that will recreate positive vibes to an extent, among reviewers and the public...
nETHERLANDS HAS seven imax SCREENS 8-} :D
I agree that SF' success depended on repeat viewings and getting in a lot of baby boomers (and older) to the theatres. That was critical to its success.
The Olympics/50th anniversary definitely helped with getting awareness to the older crowd in the UK. In the US, that was not a big factor. Rather, it was the clear lack of competition in theatres that brought the older crowd in, as well as the wonderful cinematography, showcased on the TV trailers, & Bardem's Silva (at least from the older crowd I spoke with, including my parents). The buzz was positive because it focused on 'senior citizen M', concepts about aging/irrelevancy, and because the action could be seen on screen (unlike QoS) for a lot of older people. It became 'the nostalgic event movie' for the family during the holiday 2012 period (I suspect SW7 will have that honour this year though) and so audiences continued to trickle in over many weeks (while it stayed in the best theatres), boosting the overall US gross. However, RT had an effect here too.....older people do actually consult reviews, more than social media.
I agree that the US market is critical to sustain buzz. The UK market will create it and the US market will either sustain it or kill it. I have no opinion on where that will end up. I sense a desire by the US media to crap all over SP (they have a tendency to want to knock down something that exceeded expectations previously), but hopefully I'm wrong on that and they instead talk it up.
Blatant injustice! :))
I want one now :))
@Gustav_Graves
That's very true, but they have to see it first. SF had excellent marketing buzz which started the ball rolling favourably. The film's quality did the rest, as did the lack of competition.
QoS was released at the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis. I recall everyone I knew was crapping their pants back then about financial doom. It was a different time compared to 2012 with Olympic fever etc. QoS was also not as senior friendly as SF (a huge factor imho) but was more geared to the Bourne crowd action wise. That hurt it.
SF was actually a feel good film for Britain in a memorable year. It played to vanities and insecurities beautifully. Its inordinate success there carried forward.
SP has to do the same to start the ball rolling. The US market will grab the baton and take it forward.
Don't forget all those who are fed up with your patronizing comments about how "fans" here are idiots, and stopped bothering pointing out you're not as good with predictions as you think. I showed your predictions about 2015 box office in your post here to a guy here and he laughed, it seems you were wrong 9 out of 10 times (only Minions was correct he said if I remember well), you guessed no surprises as everyone else, but he says your prediction about the Clooney movie was way off base anyhow.
I won't answer to your ultra long answer that will follow.
Cor!
I think it may be a case of the straw that broke the camels back.
Nope. Anyhow, if someone thinks he can predict box office results with some accuracy even only 4 out of 5 times, he should leave his job and becomes a millionnaire in Hollywood :)
Pardon me?