SPECTRE: It grossed $880 Million Worldwide (..and 2015 was the biggest box office year so far)

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  • Posts: 11,119
    jake24 wrote: »
    In a bad mood today?

    Nope. Anyhow, if someone thinks he can predict box office results with some accuracy even only 4 out of 5 times, he should leave his job and becomes a millionnaire in Hollywood :)

    This guy @Suivez_ce_parachute is the true stereotype of a French Bond villain ;-).

    I feel honored that you show me my 'predictions' to your henchmen dear Suivez.
  • Discussion time: How will Spectre hold up to Star Wars?
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    It will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 1,021
    It will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.

    Once Star Wars hits theatres EON will already have a billion dollars in the bank....well a percentage of a billion dollars...

  • Posts: 12,462
    Yeah; there should be enough time for it to make plenty before Star Wars arrives. But in comparison, Star Wars will probably dominate it - I predict it'll become the third highest grossing film ever by the end of its run.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    It will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.

    Once Star Wars hits theatres EON will already have a billion dollars in the bank....well a percentage of a billion dollars...

    Absolutely. SW is opening long after SP has made most of its money, luckily.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    FoxRox wrote: »
    Yeah; there should be enough time for it to make plenty before Star Wars arrives. But in comparison, Star Wars will probably dominate it - I predict it'll become the third highest grossing film ever by the end of its run.

    Nope SW will destroy Avatar's BO!!
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 11,119
    It will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.

    People need to stop putting up these doom scenario's. Sjee guys.....sometimes you all sound like the end of 007 is near, or if "SPECTRE" could be the first Bond-flop in decades.

    You guys need to see things into perspective. First of all. It's not as if ONLY 007 will 'suffer' from "Star Wars: The Force Awakens". ALL other big blockbusters will suffer from it:
    "The Hunger Games 4"
    "The Good Dinosaur"
    "The Peanuts"

    Then, you have to really look at the opening weekends. First of all, look at the opening weekend of "Jurassic World", which happens to be record-holder of 'all time opening weekends' so far:

    Opening_Weekend_Jurassic_World.jpg

    And then, have a look what "SkyFall" did when "The Hobbit" premiered in 2012. A very good opening weekend, albeit not 'staggering':

    Opening_Weekend_The_Hobbit_An_Unexpected_Jou.jpg

    As you can see, the nr's #2 still cash in money no? I wouldn't be surprised if "SPECTRE" would gross between $7 Million to $18 million when "Star Wars" will premiere.


    I personally think Sony's strategy will be to try to open "SPECTRE" in the US with a staggering theater-count of above 4,200. So that "SPECTRE" will have banked around $300 Million when "Star Wars" opens (When "The Hobbit" opened back in 2012, the box office gross of "SkyFall" stood at $272 Million....and "Skyfall" opened with a considerable lower theater-count of 3,500). Moreover, "SPECTRE" has got one week more as compared to "Skyfall" vs. the opening of "The Hobbit", until the big one opens on December 18th.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    @Gustav_Graves

    SP will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.

    That is not a doom scenario but exactly what will happen.

    Of course at that point SP will be a very rich, possibly billionaire dead in the field movie :))
  • Posts: 11,119
    @Gustav_Graves

    SP will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.

    That is not a doom scenario but exactly what will happen.

    Of course at that point SP will be a very rich, possibly billionaire dead in the field movie :))

    Look to my previous post :-).
  • Posts: 12,526
    Bond will be fine and has survived all the other franchises regardless!
  • Discussion time: How will Spectre hold up to Star Wars?

    As others have said, Spectre will have made most of its money by then. The only real difference is that Star Wars may cut off that final $10-$15 mil that Skyfall was able to make through late Dec-Jan.
  • RC7RC7
    Posts: 10,512
    I tend not to bother with BO and/or predictions, but comparing SW with The Hobbit is pointless.
  • And one should not think SW's impact will start on the day of the release. People who plan to go with the family to see one movie for the month will decide for one movie, and if it's SW, it will impact those the weeks before.
  • Posts: 4,603
    Its surely more subtle than release dates. It's about the "buzz" of a new movie and column inches etc, if people are talking about SW, they will not be talking about SP (or talking less), its not as simple as a switch that comes on when the movie is released. This first SW trailer seems to have had a big impact. the marketing machine will shift up a gear in Nov
  • Posts: 11,119
    And one should not think SW's impact will start on the day of the release. People who plan to go with the family to see one movie for the month will decide for one movie, and if it's SW, it will impact those the weeks before.

    I actually fully agree with that.... It does have an influence on "SPECTRE". It also has an influence on "The Hunger Games"....and many otyher movies coming out this year. It remains to be seen how big that impact will be.

    Here in Spain I was very surprised to see that on Yelmo Online (cinema chain in Spain) it is already possible buying tickets for "Star Wars" in advance, but there's no mention of "SPECTRE" yet. It's perhaps the biggest publicity/marketing pull for the new "Star Wars" film so far...

    But it is only one moment. Curious to see what happens to "SPECTRE" tomorrow when the first reviews come in....
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    I agree that this is a pointless comparison at this time, that the notable impact of SW will be felt prior to the film's release, and also that some families only go to see one film in the theatre.

    Here is the difference for me. One of these two is a phenomenon in 2015. The other is not.

    SF came as close to a phenomenon as is possible for Bond in 2012.

    The thing about phenomenons is they usually only come once in a while, and not with every release.

    PS: I'm already starting to see the new SW toys almost too often in stores in the most impactful of places...
  • Posts: 11,119
    By the way, I made the comparison with "The Hobbit" and "Jurassic World" to show what happened in the past with the no#2 and just recently with "Jurassic World". If "Spy" can pull off a 2nd week with $16 Million behind the highest opening weekend ever (so far!)........
  • patb wrote: »
    Its surely more subtle than release dates. It's about the "buzz" of a new movie and column inches etc, if people are talking about SW, they will not be talking about SP (or talking less), its not as simple as a switch that comes on when the movie is released. This first SW trailer seems to have had a big impact. the marketing machine will shift up a gear in Nov

    I don't think its really that big a deal. This summer there was Jurassic World (1.5 billion), Inside Out (800 million) and Minions ($1.1 bil) all opening within 4 weeks of each other. People are used to there being multiple blockbusters at once.
  • Posts: 11,119
    dinovelvet wrote: »
    patb wrote: »
    Its surely more subtle than release dates. It's about the "buzz" of a new movie and column inches etc, if people are talking about SW, they will not be talking about SP (or talking less), its not as simple as a switch that comes on when the movie is released. This first SW trailer seems to have had a big impact. the marketing machine will shift up a gear in Nov

    I don't think its really that big a deal. This summer there was Jurassic World (1.5 billion), Inside Out (800 million) and Minions ($1.1 bil) all opening within 4 weeks of each other. People are used to there being multiple blockbusters at once.

    That's very true.
  • SirHilaryBraySirHilaryBray Scotland
    Posts: 2,138
    Industry is projecting Spectre to make $75-80M on opening week. Records will be smashed.
  • Posts: 11,119
    Industry is projecting Spectre to make $75-80M on opening week. Records will be smashed.

    Yes, I saw the Deadline-article. But I think it's a way too modest, way too soft prediction. Especially since the article says:
    "Total awareness is at 74% versus Skyfall‘s 79%, definite interest is at 64% compared with Skyfall‘s 57%. Any time a film is over 55% in definite choice or total awareness tracking, that’s huge."
    So Deadline is contradicting itself a bit. And moreover, I think Sony wants to downplay the predictions a bit, and this article helps with it.

    Also, we don't know the exact theater-count for the USA yet. If Sony has managed to get "SPECTRE" into 4,100 theaters or more on opening day, then this prediction will not hold up ("SkyFall" opened with a rather 'lacklustre' 3,600 theaters).

    Down below a comparison I made with....more or less similar movies:

    "Furious 7" (2015):
    --> opening weekend: $147,187,040
    --> widest release: 4,022 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (4,004): $36,760

    "Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier" (2014):
    --> opening weekend: $095,023,721
    --> widest release: 3,938 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (3,938): $24,130

    "Iron Man 3" (2013):
    --> opening weekend: $174,144,585
    --> widest release: 4,253 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (4,253): $40,946

    "Fast & Furious 6" (2013):
    --> opening weekend: $097,375,245
    --> widest release: 3,771 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (3,658): $26,620

    "The Dark Knight Rises" (2012):
    --> opening weekend: $160,887,295
    --> widest release: 4,404 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (4,404): $36,532

    "The Dark Knight" (2008):
    --> opening weekend: $158,411,483
    --> widest release: 4,366 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (4,366): $36,283

    "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (2008):
    --> opening weekend: $100,137,835
    --> widest release: 4,264 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (4,260): $23,507



    And now the results from the 2012 James Bond film "Skyfall":
    --> opening weekend: $088,364,714
    --> widest release: 3,526 theaters
    --> average gross per theater (3,505): $25,211


    As you can see, from all of the above movies, "Skyfall" had quite a 'low' opening weekend. That doesn't mean 'low' off course, as for a Bond film it's incredible...and its holdover was particularly impressive. The same can be said from the theater count. The widest release in the USA stood at 3,526 theaters, which more or less 'pales' in comparison to the other movies from the above list.

    Now my question really is: Do you think there's a possibility "SPECTRE" could shatter "Skyfall"s opening weekend with help of a much higher theater count?

    I know from some insiders that cinema chains in the USA are way more willing now to considerably improve on the theater count for "SPECTRE", due to the success of "Skyfall". But how does that translate in a realistic opening weekend prediction? I personally think an opening weekend of between $120 Million and 140 Million (lower than "Furious 7") is very well possible. But what do you think?

    I do agree however that "Star Wars 7" ticket sales this week so far are truly impressive...obliterating every online movie ticket sales records. So that's a factor too. However, after today the first reviews of "SPECTRE" will take over the movie news I think.
  • Yes tracking is very much a gamble. None of the "experts" saw Jurassic World's $200+ million opening weekend coming. More relevantly to SPECTRE maybe, Mission Impossible was "tracking" at $40 million :

    http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/

    It eventually opened to $55 mil.
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 11,119
    dinovelvet wrote: »
    Yes tracking is very much a gamble. None of the "experts" saw Jurassic World's $200+ million opening weekend coming. More relevantly to SPECTRE maybe, Mission Impossible was "tracking" at $40 million :

    http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/

    It eventually opened to $55 mil.

    Hence why I made this comparison a few weeks ago. Links down below are the -very early- box office tracking figures (sometimes released 6 weeks before the eventual premiere). Initially tracking was predicting a staggering $71 Million opening weekend for "Rogue Nation". Then two weeks before the premiere Variety came with the article you were linking too, and were predicting completely the opposite way: A very very soft $40 Million opening weekend. The final opening weekend figure was in between. But fact is: Both predictions were off with $20 Million:
    BoxOffice.com and TheWrap were mostly wrong with these, rather dubious, early tracking figures. I find these articles so bland really. Early tracking for "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" was way off. The actual opening weekend was much smaller as their predicted weekend estimate:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-06-long-range-forecast-mission-impossible-rogue-nation
    Opening weekend: $71,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $197,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $55,520,089
    Current domestic gross: $183,612,153

    Conclusion: "M:I - Rogue Nation" slightly underperformed as compared to their long range forecast. The film will not even come close to $197 Million and is, at least for now, in the USA not as succesful as "Ghost Protocol". Reason for that? The last-notice rescheduling. Which BoxOffice.com should have taken more serious.



    With "Furious 7" it was the other way around really. That movie got pushed enormously by the death of Paul Walker, but also because the film received good reviews. I said that beforehand, BoxOffice.com took that too lightly. One can predict that with some more credible social media figures. One also needs to 'feel' trends properly, and Box.Office.com wasn't doing that:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
    Opening weekend: $115,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $260,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $147,187,040
    Final domestic gross: $351,032,910

    Conclusion: Like "Skyfall" and "The Dark Knight", boxoffice.com completely underestimated other sudden news events that can really drive up a movie, like the death of a co-star or the Olympics or a 50th Anniversary.



    And one last 'long range forecast' prediction: "Kingsman: The Secret Service". Completely underestimated by the same site. Fox really attached all it's smart marketing efforts on that other competing movie "Fifty Shades Of Grey". It basically 'parasited' on that film wonderfully. BoxOffice.com entirely forgot that. Although I have to say that I'm only critical of these stupid long range forecasts. Otherwise it's a good website:

    long range forecast prediction:
    http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-long-range-forecast-furious-7
    Opening weekend: $23,000,000
    Final domestic gross: $60,000,000

    Factual box office results:
    Opening weekend: $36,206,331
    Final domestic gross: $128,261,724

    Conclusion: Again, this shows how these 'long range forecasts' should be taken with a grain of salt. In the end "Kingsman" was a huge success in the USA and doubled its domestic take as compared to that early prediction



    So I think you're drawing big conclusions too soon. You base your entire prediction on just early tracking? On these rather....flawed attention seeking filler articles? You need to take into account more trendsetting factors. One needs to predict better, 'feel' the mood so to say.

    And now have a look at this post from our beloved @ChampionAlonso. He was linking us to the BoxOfficeMojo prediction from last week for "Bridge Of Spies" (I recall that @BondJasonBond006 was panicking about this particular spy film...and how it could have a negative influence on "SPECTRE" ;-) ):
    Bridge of Spies predictions for this weekend: (2,811 theaters)
    --> $19,677,000
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4113&p=.htm

    Another good example of a failed prediction. Particularly since this prediction was made a day before the premiere (!!). It wasn't going to do tremendously well during its opening weekend. But this is the final weekend opening:

    --> $15,371,203

    And that's almost $4 Million off compared to the prediction.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited October 2015 Posts: 23,883
    I personally think, no matter what they say publicly, they are looking for $90m to $100m opening.

    That will give them bragging rights (beat SF, biggest opening ever etc. etc.) and allow some free press to help them into the especially critical weeks 2 and 3, when SP really needs to perform with strong holdover. It will also help with marketing into countries that open after the US.

    I think $90m to $100m is actually possible. As I've said before, the first weekend is not going to be a problem. It's weeks 2-4 where I look for sustainability.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    bondjames wrote: »
    I personally think, no matter what they say publicly, they are looking for $90m to $100m opening.

    That will give them bragging rights (beat SF, biggest opening ever etc. etc.) and allow some free press to help them into the especially critical weeks 2 and 3, when SP really needs to perform with strong holdover. It will also help with marketing into countries that open after the US.

    I think $90m to $100m is actually possible. As I've said before, the first weekend is not going to be a problem. It's weeks 2-4 where I look for sustainability.

    The first week will be enormous in BO, even in Switzerland they show it on a record number on screens in the first week.
    But as you said week 2 and especially 3 will be deciding if SP will break the billion barrier.
  • edited October 2015 Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    I personally think, no matter what they say publicly, they are looking for $90m to $100m opening.

    That will give them bragging rights (beat SF, biggest opening ever etc. etc.) and allow some free press to help them into the especially critical weeks 2 and 3, when SP really needs to perform with strong holdover. It will also help with marketing into countries that open after the US.

    I think $90m to $100m is actually possible. As I've said before, the first weekend is not going to be a problem. It's weeks 2-4 where I look for sustainability.

    The first week will be enormous in BO, even in Switzerland they show it on a record number on screens in the first week.
    But as you said week 2 and especially 3 will be deciding if SP will break the billion barrier.

    I think Sony knows that. The first week for "SPECTRE" needs to blow out all fuses. Like you said in Switzerland..."SPECTRE" will already be shown on more screens than "Skyfall". And I wouldn't be surprised if "SPECTRE" opens at 4,200 theaters in the US (a whopping 700 more theaters than with "Skyfall").

    Now big news concerning The Netherlands:

    "SPECTRE" will open in a record 134 theaters in The Netherlands (323 screens)!! "SkyFall" opened in 119 theaters across the country (211 screens). So that's massive!

    Sony Benelux obviously is aiming at breaking the previous "highest grossing movie in Holland", which is "Skyfall" with a record box office gross of $25,100,238. No wonder The Netherlands is the 3rd country after Ireland and UK were "SPECTRE" will premiere. Sony sees Netherlands as a pivotal market.
  • Posts: 11,119
    Anyone else like to weigh in?
  • M_BaljeM_Balje Amsterdam, Netherlands
    edited October 2015 Posts: 4,511
    Not realy new news, i already confirmd weaks go that Spectre get same kind of cinema screens on the level of Harry Potter 2. And earlier already ask/hoped for this kind of screens, because Skyfall not get enough. There is possible the movie get even more screens because ''Pan'' is a big flop with 228 screens. Spectre not get same kind of offline promotion with magazines, title song (The song is almoost ignored on radio exept Top 40 on Friday) and on tv as with Skyfall . Skyfall scored 2 million views. Then 21 have been possible (Gooische Vrouwen 2 did 18 million, first movie 21.) with 25 million Skyfall did. But 14-19 have been nice.

    But tomorrow (23 October 2015) people can buy the soundtrack and single of movie on bol.com and then we wil see where Writings On the Wall stay for his 3th weak in Top 40 (From 37 to 35 and from 35 to...) and will help the movie in 2-3 weaks after the release date.

    After Twine on Wednesday 27 and after LTK Thursday 28 of October there wil be a 5 minutes sneak preview special on RTL007. There wil be redcarpet premiere on the 27th, but i am curious where we get option to see it and with who.
  • Posts: 11,119
    What an insane year for the cinema box office no :-)?
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