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This guy @Suivez_ce_parachute is the true stereotype of a French Bond villain ;-).
I feel honored that you show me my 'predictions' to your henchmen dear Suivez.
Once Star Wars hits theatres EON will already have a billion dollars in the bank....well a percentage of a billion dollars...
Absolutely. SW is opening long after SP has made most of its money, luckily.
Nope SW will destroy Avatar's BO!!
People need to stop putting up these doom scenario's. Sjee guys.....sometimes you all sound like the end of 007 is near, or if "SPECTRE" could be the first Bond-flop in decades.
You guys need to see things into perspective. First of all. It's not as if ONLY 007 will 'suffer' from "Star Wars: The Force Awakens". ALL other big blockbusters will suffer from it:
"The Hunger Games 4"
"The Good Dinosaur"
"The Peanuts"
Then, you have to really look at the opening weekends. First of all, look at the opening weekend of "Jurassic World", which happens to be record-holder of 'all time opening weekends' so far:
And then, have a look what "SkyFall" did when "The Hobbit" premiered in 2012. A very good opening weekend, albeit not 'staggering':
As you can see, the nr's #2 still cash in money no? I wouldn't be surprised if "SPECTRE" would gross between $7 Million to $18 million when "Star Wars" will premiere.
I personally think Sony's strategy will be to try to open "SPECTRE" in the US with a staggering theater-count of above 4,200. So that "SPECTRE" will have banked around $300 Million when "Star Wars" opens (When "The Hobbit" opened back in 2012, the box office gross of "SkyFall" stood at $272 Million....and "Skyfall" opened with a considerable lower theater-count of 3,500). Moreover, "SPECTRE" has got one week more as compared to "Skyfall" vs. the opening of "The Hobbit", until the big one opens on December 18th.
SP will get crushed and left dead in the field once SW hits the screens.
That is not a doom scenario but exactly what will happen.
Of course at that point SP will be a very rich, possibly billionaire dead in the field movie :))
Look to my previous post :-).
As others have said, Spectre will have made most of its money by then. The only real difference is that Star Wars may cut off that final $10-$15 mil that Skyfall was able to make through late Dec-Jan.
I actually fully agree with that.... It does have an influence on "SPECTRE". It also has an influence on "The Hunger Games"....and many otyher movies coming out this year. It remains to be seen how big that impact will be.
Here in Spain I was very surprised to see that on Yelmo Online (cinema chain in Spain) it is already possible buying tickets for "Star Wars" in advance, but there's no mention of "SPECTRE" yet. It's perhaps the biggest publicity/marketing pull for the new "Star Wars" film so far...
But it is only one moment. Curious to see what happens to "SPECTRE" tomorrow when the first reviews come in....
Here is the difference for me. One of these two is a phenomenon in 2015. The other is not.
SF came as close to a phenomenon as is possible for Bond in 2012.
The thing about phenomenons is they usually only come once in a while, and not with every release.
PS: I'm already starting to see the new SW toys almost too often in stores in the most impactful of places...
I don't think its really that big a deal. This summer there was Jurassic World (1.5 billion), Inside Out (800 million) and Minions ($1.1 bil) all opening within 4 weeks of each other. People are used to there being multiple blockbusters at once.
That's very true.
Yes, I saw the Deadline-article. But I think it's a way too modest, way too soft prediction. Especially since the article says: So Deadline is contradicting itself a bit. And moreover, I think Sony wants to downplay the predictions a bit, and this article helps with it.
Also, we don't know the exact theater-count for the USA yet. If Sony has managed to get "SPECTRE" into 4,100 theaters or more on opening day, then this prediction will not hold up ("SkyFall" opened with a rather 'lacklustre' 3,600 theaters).
Down below a comparison I made with....more or less similar movies:
"Furious 7" (2015):
--> opening weekend: $147,187,040
--> widest release: 4,022 theaters
--> average gross per theater (4,004): $36,760
"Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier" (2014):
--> opening weekend: $095,023,721
--> widest release: 3,938 theaters
--> average gross per theater (3,938): $24,130
"Iron Man 3" (2013):
--> opening weekend: $174,144,585
--> widest release: 4,253 theaters
--> average gross per theater (4,253): $40,946
"Fast & Furious 6" (2013):
--> opening weekend: $097,375,245
--> widest release: 3,771 theaters
--> average gross per theater (3,658): $26,620
"The Dark Knight Rises" (2012):
--> opening weekend: $160,887,295
--> widest release: 4,404 theaters
--> average gross per theater (4,404): $36,532
"The Dark Knight" (2008):
--> opening weekend: $158,411,483
--> widest release: 4,366 theaters
--> average gross per theater (4,366): $36,283
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (2008):
--> opening weekend: $100,137,835
--> widest release: 4,264 theaters
--> average gross per theater (4,260): $23,507
And now the results from the 2012 James Bond film "Skyfall":
--> opening weekend: $088,364,714
--> widest release: 3,526 theaters
--> average gross per theater (3,505): $25,211
As you can see, from all of the above movies, "Skyfall" had quite a 'low' opening weekend. That doesn't mean 'low' off course, as for a Bond film it's incredible...and its holdover was particularly impressive. The same can be said from the theater count. The widest release in the USA stood at 3,526 theaters, which more or less 'pales' in comparison to the other movies from the above list.
Now my question really is: Do you think there's a possibility "SPECTRE" could shatter "Skyfall"s opening weekend with help of a much higher theater count?
I know from some insiders that cinema chains in the USA are way more willing now to considerably improve on the theater count for "SPECTRE", due to the success of "Skyfall". But how does that translate in a realistic opening weekend prediction? I personally think an opening weekend of between $120 Million and 140 Million (lower than "Furious 7") is very well possible. But what do you think?
I do agree however that "Star Wars 7" ticket sales this week so far are truly impressive...obliterating every online movie ticket sales records. So that's a factor too. However, after today the first reviews of "SPECTRE" will take over the movie news I think.
http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/
It eventually opened to $55 mil.
Hence why I made this comparison a few weeks ago. Links down below are the -very early- box office tracking figures (sometimes released 6 weeks before the eventual premiere). Initially tracking was predicting a staggering $71 Million opening weekend for "Rogue Nation". Then two weeks before the premiere Variety came with the article you were linking too, and were predicting completely the opposite way: A very very soft $40 Million opening weekend. The final opening weekend figure was in between. But fact is: Both predictions were off with $20 Million:
And now have a look at this post from our beloved @ChampionAlonso. He was linking us to the BoxOfficeMojo prediction from last week for "Bridge Of Spies" (I recall that @BondJasonBond006 was panicking about this particular spy film...and how it could have a negative influence on "SPECTRE" ;-) ):
Another good example of a failed prediction. Particularly since this prediction was made a day before the premiere (!!). It wasn't going to do tremendously well during its opening weekend. But this is the final weekend opening:
--> $15,371,203
And that's almost $4 Million off compared to the prediction.
That will give them bragging rights (beat SF, biggest opening ever etc. etc.) and allow some free press to help them into the especially critical weeks 2 and 3, when SP really needs to perform with strong holdover. It will also help with marketing into countries that open after the US.
I think $90m to $100m is actually possible. As I've said before, the first weekend is not going to be a problem. It's weeks 2-4 where I look for sustainability.
The first week will be enormous in BO, even in Switzerland they show it on a record number on screens in the first week.
But as you said week 2 and especially 3 will be deciding if SP will break the billion barrier.
I think Sony knows that. The first week for "SPECTRE" needs to blow out all fuses. Like you said in Switzerland..."SPECTRE" will already be shown on more screens than "Skyfall". And I wouldn't be surprised if "SPECTRE" opens at 4,200 theaters in the US (a whopping 700 more theaters than with "Skyfall").
Now big news concerning The Netherlands:
"SPECTRE" will open in a record 134 theaters in The Netherlands (323 screens)!! "SkyFall" opened in 119 theaters across the country (211 screens). So that's massive!
Sony Benelux obviously is aiming at breaking the previous "highest grossing movie in Holland", which is "Skyfall" with a record box office gross of $25,100,238. No wonder The Netherlands is the 3rd country after Ireland and UK were "SPECTRE" will premiere. Sony sees Netherlands as a pivotal market.
But tomorrow (23 October 2015) people can buy the soundtrack and single of movie on bol.com and then we wil see where Writings On the Wall stay for his 3th weak in Top 40 (From 37 to 35 and from 35 to...) and will help the movie in 2-3 weaks after the release date.
After Twine on Wednesday 27 and after LTK Thursday 28 of October there wil be a 5 minutes sneak preview special on RTL007. There wil be redcarpet premiere on the 27th, but i am curious where we get option to see it and with who.