It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
^ Back to Top
The MI6 Community is unofficial and in no way associated or linked with EON Productions, MGM, Sony Pictures, Activision or Ian Fleming Publications. Any views expressed on this website are of the individual members and do not necessarily reflect those of the Community owners. Any video or images displayed in topics on MI6 Community are embedded by users from third party sites and as such MI6 Community and its owners take no responsibility for this material.
James Bond News • James Bond Articles • James Bond Magazine
Comments
Yes.........but i'am not putting my life on it. SP does also have the advantage at the moment of basically not having any real competition in the market, and will have that for a quite a while yet!
We will get a much better indication, as to the likely BO outcome of SP, after the figures for the films 2nd Weekend grosses are known. The second weekend figures have always given BO analysts a good feel for how well a film will do, as it gives them a figure to compare against the 1st weekends grosses..........ie the percentage change in figures.
A percentage drop of 20-30% is considered good, and shows that a film will have legs, as they say. Though if the film drops by around 60% in its 2nd weekend......then we are looking at a failure here.
I dont remember the BO opening weekend figures in the UK for CR and QOS off the top of my head, but if i remember they were quite close. The thing is CR had good word of mouth, and kept coining it at the tills in following weekends.......whereas QOS plummeted quite quickly.........at the end of their runs CR had around $106 mil, QOS finished around the $80 mil mark.
Back to SP.............on a worldwide basis, the two markets which are somewhat difficult to gauge at the moment are the North American market and the Chinese market for two different reasons.
In the US SP does have some competition, even in its first weekend where it is pitched up again the 'Peanuts Movie', then later on in its run it will face the new Hunger games film, and then the behemoth, the latest Star Wars installment. Plus the Americans are a funny lot, and you just sometimes never know if they fancy a particular film at any given time.
The average American Bond audience has been around 25 million admissions since the mid 90's, though that went upto somehwere around the 35 million mark for SF.
The Chinese film market has just exploded in recent times, and some Hollywood films have made huge grosses there, over $300 mil in a few cases. I believe SF made somewhere around $59 mil there, but i can see a much higher figure for SP there, but what it will be, who knows?
Regarding other countries, its much easier to gauge BO for SP!
Germany, the Benelux countries, Scandinavia, the Alpine countries and Australia........these countries have always provided Bond films with big BO!
I agree with you that US and China are quite difficult to gauge right now.
-Spy films have somewhat underperformed (imho) in the US market in 2015 (none has really set the box office alight) so we'll have to see what that means for Bond. Brand recognition is excellent so I expect a very strong opening, but as you rightly noted, it is the 2nd and perhaps 3rd weeks where it will really matter.....in every market.
-China should come in above $100m, but I can't tell where. It could even go to $125m.
---
I think with SP we should expect above average openings in all markets (certainly better than SF) and then a sharper drop off in weeks 2 and 3 (only because it is a 'front loaded' release following from a massive hit, so we should expect a higher first week gross everywhere).
The key will be how much more (in % and $ terms) is the drop off relative to SF. To use a track and field analogy I expect it to blast out of the starting gate/blocks and then likely run out of gas sooner......so how fast it starts off in week 1 will be critical imho. If it can hold its % drop off in week 2 & 3 to a comparable level with SF, then we have a sure fire megahit on our hands.
Additionally, If SP can beat SF in the UK or even come close to it, that would be a great start.
Exactly............i agree..........:)
I suspect this is what Sony/EON wants. Although SF faced competition from Twilight and The Hobbit, neither of these was on the level of a Star Wars, which is a black hole that will swallow everything in its path, and will cut off that last $20-25 mil that SF was able to pull in over Christmas-January. So they'll want to get the big numbers faster this time.
Why not?........if you can afford it.............anyway you will be able to watch both films online for free during their theatrical runs.
You can see Bond before SW is even released...........and then go watch SW
Eh?................why not........please explain! ..........:)
I will say this though:
The reason why SW is relevant is because it will draw in a lot of the Christmas crowds (due to its release date closer to Christmans). It also will most likely be the 'go to' film for that time frame for the casual or occasional movie goer. On the margin, that can make a difference. SF was that film for 2012.
Furthermore, the competition from the likes of Hunger Games in particular well before SW comes out will knock Bond out of the higher priced theatres like the IMAX ones, which have an impact on its box office take in $ terms. SF had that run for a longer time in 2012.
Also, for those who aren't 'big fans' of the franchise, once a film is out of the best, most comfortable theatres, they may decide to hold off until the blu ray release, particularly these days when they seem to be releasing the blu's much sooner after cinematic release than before. Better that than view the film in a crummy smaller theatre with bad sound. I certainly am guilty of this when it comes to franchises I don't follow that much.......once it's out of the better theatres I just wait for the blu ray..
Behave you naughty boy. ;)
That s right. You nailed it.
Zzzzzz...
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-spectre-breaking-uk-835079
Not really what I meant. A juggernaut like Star Wars will be taking 4-5 screens at multiplexes, which means older films, like Spectre that will be in week 8 of its run, will be dropped. It will not have as many screens over Christmas and New year as SF did.
I'm not so sure. If it's still pulling in a nice chunk of change by the time Star Wars is released, the multiplexes will find a way to show SP.
I'm not so sure. If it's still pulling in a nice chunk of change by the time Star Wars is released, the multiplexes will find a way to show SP.
OK........nice one, smart ass...........just as i was beginning to think you were crazy! :)
Possibly............but there are always big films released over xmas. The question, is apart from SW are there any other potential big hits to be released this coming xmas, which will take away screens from SP?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/10/28/box-office-spectre-strikes-like-thunderball-snags-15-6m-uk-opening/
Nice find 'Gustav'.........interesting to read that the studio managed to trim the initial budget down from a massive $300 mil to $240 mil.
I agree. If there is still a paying audience out there wanting to see it they'll still show it where they can.
It's incredible that it makes more on a full Tuesday than the whole of the opening Friday for Skyfall with it's 50th anniversary hype.
Quite frankly as a film I think SPECTRE deserves to do better than Skyfall...but yes QOS had a great opening too so let's not count our chickens.
That said in the two showings so far I've seen a lot more families with children and huge groups of young women (not dragged reluctantly by boyfriends) compared to an older audience which Skyfall seemed to have.
Thats strange, coz i went to see SP in a late afternoon showing, and the theatre was full, bar those seats right at the front, where people with chameleon eyes go to view a film.
The audience seemed happy & were laughing at the jokes.
Maybe, the people in your area, knew u were going to see the film! :)
I remember when I saw "Skyfall" the cinema was mostly quiet. Probably because of the darker tone and more intense drama (by great acting). During the PTS of "SF" I heard some nice, and a few playboy whistles when the floating girls from the main titles showed up. But that was about it.
So, every cinema audience during a particular showing is different. And your own first cinematic experience shouldn't become a rule of thumb for the potential box office success of the film.
There are already a few smartphone recordings showing up on YouTube from the "SP" gunbarrel sequence. Some of them have intense loud, applauding, cheering crowds. But another video had rather subdued, silent crowds.
Yes, I heard this could be a factor. I don't think it is coincidental.