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Yes @andmcit, I am referring to the overall narrative that the US media will use collectively to judge SP once all the numbers are in. The overall view. I am not referring to box office now. I am talking more about how it will be remembered/referred to (which can be different from box office success, but can also be the same).
DAD was very successful financially, and actually reasonably well reviewed in 2002 (reasonably) but now it is widely (& correctly imho) viewed as a failure. The narrative changed.
With the studio distribution rights conversation coming up soon (with many US studios bidding for the rights, including companies with large affiliated media arms such as Fox, Warner & Disney) I'm curious to see if there is an incentive to paint the film one way rather than another.
No film is perfect of course, but the media narrative /spin can impact long term lasting impressions & perceptions (well after a film is viewed and enjoyed by the public), as well as current buzz. I will be looking for clues for any bias either way (any agenda can be determined from the quality of the arguments used by the US media to back up their view).
This will actually start later this week, once the first major US reviews start to trickle in.
PS: Here's the latest on the distribution rights discussion:
http://deadline.com/2015/10/daniel-craig-james-bond-sony-warner-bros-mgm-daniel-craig-1201528241/
LOL
Hunger Games could be very competitive in the US market, but I don't think it will 'catch fire' (pun intended) with the UK cinema goers. I get his point about perhaps only one film having the emotional connection. That is true, and whichever film that is will be the clear winner when it's all said and done, imho.
IMO, no studio will try to diminish the value of the Bond franchise in order to try to have it for less, but I won't convince you I know. But well, you can consider that when there are bids, a common strategy is to make your opponent pay "too much" for it, rather than to say the stuff you want is cheap...
There are two aspects to this imho:
1. the reviews that start coming out this week. There will be little anyone can read from that, because they will just be reviews of the film, based on what critics think of it having seen it. I don't expect much from this except some reviewer's opinion. My guess is they will follow the UK approach and be positive, while being slightly less so than for SF. If there is a bias though I'm pretty sure we'll be able to see it readily.
2. the commentary and narrative that forms about one month after release and then onward down to about six months after release, as well as how the reviews are adjusted on sites like RT and the like. This is what I'm referring to as the 'broad narrative' around SP.
There will be a definite observable overall 'after the fact' 'looking back' pattern here as well as an overall story, and it will either be a positive one (SF/CR) or a negative one (QoS/DAD) for whatever reason.
It will likely be infiltrated with somewhat consistent corroborating commentary (Craig wanted to slash wrists comment messed it up/Craig was great and should stay/Sony dumped because SP not as good/Sony kept because SP was a success/OTT Bond is the way to go/OTT Bond is dead/Smith's song messed it up etc. etc.) and is likely to be independent of the film itself.
This is what I'm referring to, but we won't know for some time what the lasting story will be.
We will actually see a pattern like that develop on this site as well. We are just way too early for that. We will see it in the discussion threads that are created here.
Irrespective of the above, I expect SP to be very successful. Whether it can beat SF remains to be seen, but it will certainly come close I think, at the very least.
I don't know the answer to this, but I'm curious to see if they try. I would think Sony is a bit outside the standard US studio system due to foreign ownership - not if that means anything.
There will definitely be some 'gaming' going on with a franchise this important that is up for grabs....whether that is trying to make someone else pay too much for it, or damage it so it's less valuable to someone, I don't know. It will be interesting to see.
This is not a theory. I don't have an opinion on it. It's merely a thought.
I'm waiting to see if there is a concerted attempt to paint a narrative for SP by the US media (within the next week or so firstly, and then after a month). I will tell you what I observe about a month from now, unless an obvious pattern in the narrative can be ascertained beforehand.
As far as my theories/predictions go, as I've said earlier, I'm expecting $100m for next weekends North American box office. I'm sure that's what they're shooting for, no matter what they tell us. Maybe between $95m and $105m.
So there will IMO blood on the screen of these forums if it does less than $80M opening.. The low Rotten Tomatoes and Movie Critic score fuel the schadenfreude.
Frankly, avoid these forums if you think MI6 is full of negativity :)
PS : Some say Peanuts is outselling SPECTRE in pre-bookings in some places ? is Peanuts such a strong US phenomenon ?
Peanuts is well known but I wouldn't say it's a phenomenon. Bond should be able to best it on opening weekend imho.
Having said that, children friendly 'movie night' or 'movie Saturday/Sunday' has become more and more of a family social activity in North America, particularly since Disney's revival and all the improvements in technology. As can be seen every year, these child friendly films get huge box office stateside. It's a way for the family to spend time together and keep their 'unruly' kids happy. There is also very good x-promotion with McDonalds and other stores which children frequent to raise awareness.
My sister, as an example, has three young kids, and they make sure that they go to see all these types of films......the kids 'drive' it & 'set the agenda'. The parents are more concerned with ensuring that there are no 'scary' or 'overtly sexy' aspects in the films, as that's more of an issue on this side of the pond (more prudish philosophy than Europe in many ways). I know my sister really wants to see Bond, but I'm quite certain, due to time commitments with her kids and work, that she will only end up getting it on blu ray, and that will be my copy that I lend her!
I think Hunger Games is going to be a large threat, being the last one and all. The trailers look good. Same with the Good Dinosaur (same reason as Peanuts), particularly over Thanksgiving weekend.
Same here, taking my son to see it tonight.
I am taking my two daughters and wife so I do hope we and you will enjoy the movie.
(They've endured two 9 to 10 hour flights to London though.)
I'm seeing SP by myself first. Don't want distractions.
...and now I forgot my second point. Never mind.
Peanuts has been around as a comic strip for more than 60 years. It's still being published, albeit reprints following the death of Charles Schulz, its creator, in 2000.
A half-century ago, there were the first animated adaptations on television, including a Christmas-themed special that's shown every year. (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059026/)
So, yes, it's something that's popular in the United States.
Undoubtedly. The thing is, in 2012, Skyfall was the *only* movie in its first weekend opening across the entire United States. All the other new movies that weekend (including Lincoln) were only in limited release, i.e. only a few cities each.
This time, SPECTRE has *some* competition, i.e. one other movie in national release. Skyfall had no meaningful competition in its opening U.S. weekend.
Is Peanuts vs Bond a kind of US nostalgia vs UK nostalgia battle ? Lots of advantage when you play at home :)
That's not far from the truth, IMO.
KARACHI: Having already clicked with international critics, the latest in the James Bond franchise and the highly anticipated follow-up to Skyfall, Spectre is set to take Pakistani screens by storm.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/983232/spectre-sells-4000-tickets-in-advance/
What??? CR was a flop and went directly to the video market in the States??? :-S
Btw, I've always been interested in how Bond films perform in Canada, as I'm quite sure tastes do not always match that of our cousins south. Unfortunately, Canadian box office is always lumped together with the American one. Does anyone know a site or resource that lists Canadian b.o. only?
Good question...........many people assume that the BO figures quoted for the North American market are just for the USA..........but they are not, they also include Canada.
Canada is, and has been in the past a very good market for Bond, and in proportion to its population, is a stronger market for Bond, than the US market. I have seen figures based purely for Canada alone.............but at this moment i can't recall a specific resource for Canadian BO...........but they are out there somewhere!
150 percent agree with this. ^:)^
I think SPECTRE easily clears 1b, but gets beaten by SW7. 2015 has been a great year for (non-superhero) blockbusters. Having watched maybe one film in theaters last year I'll end up watching about 7 this year, all of which have beem outstanding so far.
One question for everyone else in here. Do you think this actual insane box office year could help all of the biggest blockbusters to score better at the international box office as opposed to 'normal years'?
I mean, it seems films like "Furious 7", "Avengers 2", "Jurassic World", "Inside Out", "Minions", "Hunger Games 4", "SPECTRE", "The Good Dinosaur" and "Star Wars 7" are movies that help generate more cinema awareness as opposed to the biggest blockbusters in previous years.
Sam Mendes' Spectre has scored the biggest opening of all time in the U.K. with $63.8 million in its first seven days of release, ahead of Skyfall.
All told, the film has earned $80.4 million from its first six territories, breaking records everywhere. In the U.K., it is playing in 647 theaters and on 2,500 screens, making it the widest release of all time.
So far, Spectre is holding its own. It scored the biggest Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday TK in history at the U.K. box office.
Sure, we had 3 very high BO hits. But if you look beyond them and Minions and maybe Inside Out the rest is not that shiny compared to 2014 or earlier years.
There are 6 movies so far that surpassed 600 million in 2015 while for instance in 2014 12 movies went beyond 600 million.