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I'm pretty certain SPECTRE will at least equal SF's numbers in NA, with gains coming mostly from Europe (as we are already seeing in the UK etc) and china.
There are a load of people like myself who have seen the film more than once, or intend to see it more than once while in the cinemas.
Peanuts has always been an acquired taste. From my youth it was the quirky kids who were loopy over snoopy. It's timing is also a problem. Its aimed at kids its passed the Fall holidays in the US and October break in the UK and will likely only sell out theatres Saturday/Sunday as parents historically don't take their kids to see a film on a week day after school its a family weekend thing.
And I am afraid Bond performance in USA will affects its performance everywhere .. So I still think it will be a success when it reach 900 million mark ..
You talk like me. I like that hehehehehe :-P.
I think "Peanuts" can do well. But like "Paddington" earlier this year, "Pixels" and "Shaun The Sheep" (which sadly was a financial flop, regardless of its very high RT rating)...these are animated movies that particularly have a nostalgic feeling to....how weird it may sound......older people. It's not like kids say: "Hey mum! I wanna see Peanuts". It's the other way around. Parents say to their kids: "We're going to see this great movie son/daughter!". That's different.
Look, with "Hotel Transylvania 2" and "Minions" you at least had a huge fanbase of kids. That's something "Peanuts" doesn't have. Kids don't know Charlie Brown or Snoopy.
So I don't particularly see "The Peanuts" as a threat to "SPECTRE". Moreover, I think Pixar's "The Good Dinosaur" is in much better shape than "The Peanuts" to do very well at the box office. That one is the one to watch.
Having said that, Bond will kill it this weekend. +100m is a given. Peanuts won't come close, but it could rob additional important first week viewers at the margin, which is not good.
Thanksgiving is the real test. I expect the Good Dinosaur (Jurassic effect as well) and Hunger Games to create major problems because Bond will lose IMAX power over that weekend.
I think @bondjames has already made this point but I'm not making any predictions until the second and third weeks of release in North America.
SF didn't really take off in China so SP will be a hard sell not a shoe in. True I believe China will enjoy SP more but they may not even want to bother.
I am still thinking final worldwide gross of $750m. I would expect SP to do very well on Bluray/DVD.
I'm not being doom and gloom. I am excited still to experience the film.
Final wordwide gross of $750 Million is entirely unrealistic...and would be considered a financial disaster....especially for Sony.
I still think $1bn is a possibility and I really believe that is what everyone is gunning for, to say they've delivered two above that critical number.
As I've said before, I actually would prefer if it comes in below that number because I really don't want box office to be the defining factor for James Bond films going forward (whether with DC or without him).
I'd rather it be critical acclaim after the fact. That is what I want them to shoot for. Be creative. Be daring. Be different. Surprise us. Like they've done with the last few. Box office success is a bonus.
Yes, and some of the new ones use the 'thumping' music from the original SF teaser. My favourite trailer music of all time. Really gets me pumped to see it.
I want a billion plus ...especially to ensure Bond's return.
Although if Bond doesn't meet that mark then that could push the producers a bit more to rethink which is not always bad thing.
The past two "return to Fleming" FYEO and CR were responses to OTT financially more successful films.
The last "return to basics" GE was a response to a less successful film (in North America). So I don't know. I just don't want Bond not to be successful enough not to be worth financing....or worth too much to be profitable.
Well, so far if I'm right the Top 100 movies of 2015 are 5.000.000.000 $ below 2014, there is 2 months to get back. China expansion has not yet compensate for the rest of the world diminishing "steadily" IIRC. You hear a lot about China expansion because not much elsewhere the movie industry has something nice to show to investors :)
And yet well, is it really that meaningfull when in "2014" you don't count movie that did lots of business but were released in 2013, and you count movies that did most of the business in 2015 ?
And don't forget, $ only accounts for a minority of the currencies of the box office now ! You look at very virtual figures with box offices.
I'm a Bond fan, but I'll never spend a dollar to see SPECTRE believe me :)
"They'll print anything these days."
US Users : 6.8
Non-US Users : 7.4
Overall IMDB Users : 7.6
You like SPECTRE more if you don't say where you vote from it seems :)
And what, Happy Feet did something to CR? Mean, mean penguins! (Damned cute, though...)
I'll buy your tickets then :D
True.......but we are talking about the opening weekend boxoffice, where lets say the parents of a family would be more likely to take their little monsters to see the Peanuts movie, rather than leaving them at home and going to see Spectre for themselves. Of course they may go to the theatre on another day to see SP.......its just that on any given day, there is always a choice of films to see.
Certainly. But it doesn't make a difference in the overall BO if people see the movie first week or the second (or later) as long as they see it, and if they're actually interested I don't see why they wouldn't. The movie is out in a lot of places already and in more places at the time it opens in the US - are the first weekend numbers in the US all that important? Do regular moviegoers care or pay attention to those numbers, or decide to go or not based on that? I would imagine not, but again, it's a strange world and I don't know how people decide what they go and see. (It's never really a decision between one or some other movie for me - on a particular day maybe, but overall not.) If reviews and word of mouth are good people who didn't go right away are more likely to go later, and the movie will have legs. I'd consider that more important than first weekend. People also talk about HG and SW possibly having an effect on Spectre despite them coming out later - and in the case of SW quite a lot later. I don't see why they would have an effect, but like I said I don't get this stuff anyway.
There are very few votes from American registered people, so it´s a bit early to know. I am a European registered voter, but I am not registered by country or contient, so should I enjoy the movie more than the average user? ... :-/
http://hubpages.com/entertainment/Spectra-Early-Box-Office-Projections
The writer of this article basically says that $950 Million globally is a lock....and then it can go everywhere, with an absolute maximum of $1.4 Billion. But please take this guy's predictions with a grain of salt lol :-P.
Yeah, but I think he's off with his prediction for the final domestic gross for "SPECTRE". And again....I need to see final theater counts.
Yes........i do think $400 mil is quite a stretch, and would be quite remarkable for a Bond film in the modern era.
It really goes to show how big GF and TB were in the 60's in North America, where TB in particular grossed the equivalent today of over $600 mil, quite staggering when you consider the population of the USA in 1966 when the film was playing was around 200 mil, now in 2015 the US population is 320 mil. Sorry for excluding the Canadians on this matter! :)
SP will not have a billion by the end of November!