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Don't blame North America... they should've made a better film.
But I did enjoy SP a lot ...not saying that. They just filmed an undeveloped script.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/11/james-bond-spectre-box-office
Exactly, way way too conservative. $300 Million won't be reached anymore. That is out of the question. But still, the domestic box office of "SPECTRE" is slightly more en route towards the "SKYFALL" amount, and less towards the "QUANTUM OF SOLACE" amount.
I'd say a domestic box office figure north of $250 Million is absolutely possible at this stage.
That's always the case. James Bond had to battle for instance "Wreck-It Ralph" with "Skyfall" and "Happy Feet" with "Casino Royale'. And there's always an animated movie out there. "Inside Out" premiered one week after "Jurassic World". Movie industries know that during it's entire run there is at least one animated movie their real-life action film need to battle. Always. They already take this into account with their own predictions.
And having said that, "SPECTRE" holds very well against "The Peanuts". Actually, that movie was slightly overrated during predictions as well. The movie is simply a bit too much nostalgia, and less well-known to kids audiences (like "Paddington" or "Shaun The Sheep").
But
off course "Hunger Games" will eat off a big chunk from "SPECTRE". I take that into account. Still, usually "young adult adaptations" haven't got as strong a holdover, strong legs as 2D, real-life action films.
"Skyfall" has proven that when "Twilight" premiered one week later. Young adult movies always open bigger than Bond, but they don't have the 'legs' that Bond have.
Moreover, "Hunger Games" and "SPECTRE" draw in different audiences. And after next weekend "SPECTRE" will stabilize better.
It's nothing new for Bond to do less well in the 'domestic' market and it's a stretch to say SF is the only Bond that couldn't be improved.
Even "Skyfall", which did wonderful at the US box office with a total box office gross of $304 Million, wasn't as much loved as compared to other realistic comic book adaptations and 2D-real-life-action franchises, like "The Dark Knight" and "Furious 7".
"The Dark Knight" grossed $535 Million (which was a huge improvement of "Batman Begins", which scored $208 Million in 2005). And even the slightly less critically acclaimed "The Dark Knight Rises" grossed $448 Million. Then there is "Furious 7", which grossed $353 Million.
I always thought that "Skyfall" could make Bond the ruling 2D action franchise again in the USA. But even with "Skyfall" that was perhaps already too optimistic. The USA simply isn't as much 'in love' with Bond like the rest of the world. They now like their 'own' domestic 2D action franchises more.
It's a rather 'normal' behaviour from the Americans really, a slightly build-in nationalism so to say.
Another example is the car manufacturer General Motors for which I work. Opel is perceived is by many as the 'core brand' of the company. It's 'German design and quality' is loved across the globe. Even the Chinese love it more than...Buick or Cadillac. Still, GM decided to turn Buick into their global world brand :-).
Anyway, to make a long story short: Despite the negativity, I am convinced "SPECTRE" will easily pass the $200 Million domnestically. I mean, come on, it has grossed already $129 Million after 9 days! These are not "Skyfall" numbers. But taking into account the very nature and box office breakdowns of young adult movies like "Hunger Games", I am pretty sure "SPECTRE" will have scored around $230 Million by December 18th (the day "Star Wars 7" premieres).
Here's a chart of US Bond grosses, adjusted for inflation
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=jamesbond.htm&adjust_yr=2015&p=.htm
1 Thunderball UA $623,832,000
2 Goldfinger UA $552,942,000
3 Skyfall Sony $315,602,300
4 You Only Live Twice UA $299,439,300
5 Moonraker MGM $233,613,400
6 Die Another Day MGM $230,050,800
7 Tomorrow Never Dies MGM $224,439,200
8 From Russia, with Love UA $222,371,000
9 Diamonds Are Forever UA $221,487,900
10 Casino Royale Sony $212,075,200
11 The World Is Not Enough MGM $207,280,700
12 GoldenEye MGM $203,528,900
13 Quantum of Solace Sony $195,570,000
...
21 Spectre Sony $128,981,285
I think we really need to aim for SP to take the No.5 slot, ahead of Moonraker and DAD(!) Come on now we can't let Spectre lag behind DAD! What do you think? Doable? Only needs another $100 million and change.
I didn't say that. But SF did connect more with North American audiences and critics.
It's not my intention to be arrogant or stuffy. Fact is.....Bond doesn't connect as well with American audiences as compared to blockbuster franchises like "The Fast & The Furious" and "The Dark Knight". The facts are based on simple box office figures. I think Bond is more popular in Europe. Back in my country Netherlands 'Bond' can easily destroy, IMO weak, blockbusters like "Fast & Furious", several Marvel films, including the weak "Avengers 2" and "Jurassic World".
There used to be a decade when Bond was immensely big in the USA: The 1960's. And "Skyfall" came close to that popularity. But even "Skyfall" did not came close enough apparently. Through the decades Hollywood found some perfect 'replacement' franchises that can even do better than Bond.
In Europe however, Bond always stayed big....
You are right.
Spectre sold more tickets in Switzerland in 4 days than Avengers Age Of Ultron in its entire run.
And Avengers still is a Top 10 movie in 2015 here!
Regarding SP in North America...........the film has still got a long way to go yet before its run is finished.........some members here are just estimating SP's BO gross, as though the film will be finished is a couple of weekends time. Plus don't forget the film is actually playing during the week as well, so don't forget to take that into account as well. ;)
SPECTRE will smash the SF total in the first five days! Looks like it could be China to the rescue this time. =D>
Roger Moore connected very well with US audiences for the most part. So did Pierce Brosnan and Sean Connery. George Lazenby and Timothy Dalton not so much.
I think with Daniel Craig, it's more on a film by film basis. I don't see US audiences being crazy over him, but they don't dislike him either. It's more about the film.
Regarding Dark Knight vs. Skyfall comparisons - I think in both cases the villain really connected. I think that's a huge part of a film's success in the US. Even Die Hard really connected on account of its villain (although that film is a classic on so many other levels as well).
As has been said on other threads here even, many felt that Waltz was wasted in this film, as was Hinx. If they were used more effectively, and if Waltz was more flamboyant, this film would be doing much bigger business than it is in the US (where it is performing at 'trendline' inflation adjusted for Bond films excluding SF).
I would say 175-200 million in North America, 800-900 million worldwide.
I think he means SF's total gross in China.
What everyone is forgetting, is that obviously there are new stronger film attractions coming along...........but SP will still be in theatres, upto at least early New Year.
I'am getting the figures from Chinese people who have links to the film industry there..........and so far they have been 100% accurate. :)