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Illegal trade and leisure trips seem to have given the virus its momentum. People may want to think on their decadent ways.
A friend of mine had an interesting observation this morning, when I ran into her at a cafe. She and her family cancelled plans for a trip to Hawaii next week. She said:
"Maybe this is nature's way of telling all of us to do nothing for a few weeks. Maybe in our fast-paced, crazy, go-go-go society, what we need is to stay home, relax, chill. Now that there is nothing to do, this is comforting, to be honest."
Food for thought.
But this is not a joke. It's real. Covid-19 is happening. We'll just have to wait and see...which can be quite devastating or not. Most people will survive...some may not.
Friends of ours have just cancelled their trip to come and visit us from the U.S. because of the travel restrictions decreed by the Orange Moron regarding the EU Schengen area. And the pandemic is just starting.
I like keeping this board on a light-hearted level, which is why I wonder even more why we should discuss this here. I'm fed up with my wife spending about twelve hours of her daily time dealing with this stuff. I'm not blaming her at all, she gets paid quite nicely for it, from which I also profit. But I don't really need discussions about the subject in my free time, either.
I never saw people in his 30s with no previous diseases needing IC for two weeks in order to breath just for a seasonal flu.
Anyway, Italy now has more than 1000 casualties after less than two weeks since everything started. Just for the record, the younger was 57/59 I believe.
EDIT: sorry for the lapsus: the younger man deceased was 57/59.
This is good. This is what Italy needed to do at first... glad to see other countries are learning the lesson.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html
Based on numbers from the period between 1999 and 2015, it was estimated that worldwide each year between 291.000 and 646.000 people die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory deseases.
Covid-19 so far: 4.617 worldwide.
I´m sure there are good reasons for shutting all kinds of institutions and happenings down. But what exactly is the reason? Can anyone explain? I´m not trying to mock the severity of the situation, but I cannot help being baffled by the massive numbers of influenza deaths, yet nothing is shut down because of that. Even if we were to say that Covid-19 has a higher percentage of infected people dying, still those influenza fatalities are an immense number by itself. What am I missing?
This is what I know of U.S. statistics, which can give us an idea:
About 20,000-60,000 flu-related deaths annually, according to the CDC.
In a briefing, accidentally made public, the CDC estimated 500,000 U.S. deaths in one year, from COVID-19.
Now, this was based on some sort of model, and who knows what that model looked like. Nevertheless, that is staggering.
In terms of wordwide influenza deaths, we are talking about huge areas of the world where there is little access to proper healthcare.
Yep. Felt my nuts being kicked right up into my stomach.
I do hope some of my personal observations could help you to understand the current situation from a slightly different angle.
I have to admit that China still got that censorship problem which every normal Chinese hate. But China is not hiding numbers currently because these are not just figures but real people's life. We have mixed feelings about the outbreak in different countries right now. On one hand, we felt truly sorry that the virus started from us now is spreading worldwide. The majority of Chinese including the Chinese government have tried everything we could to contain the virus within our border. On the other hand, we are shocked at the low level of measurement or mishandling in different countries. Why haven't the rest of the world learned the lesson from China?
I would like to write down the process of China treating COVID-19. I may be wrong about some details but you get the idea.
In late December last year, there are SARS-like symptoms in Wuhan China which raised medical experts' attention. Several doctors including a doctor called Li Wenliang start warning their friends about this and it raised concern to high end because no one really knows what exactly that virus is. So what did the government do? They suppressed it (which every Chinese condemns now), in the meantime, investigated it. Dr. Li, 1 of the 8 whistleblowers is summoned by the police and asked to admit he had made a false claim and harm the society. And then the news came to report such false claim let everyone not to worry. Experts will handle this properly.
In Jan this year, news came out more patients got infected. Concerns have been made but the authorities came out to say don't worry, things are under control, the disease is not that powerful. It is just another flu type of disease. Mass parties of celebration could go according to plan, just be cautious. You won't be infected by personal contact. You won't get infected from people do not have symptoms etc etc etc. Later the patients' number proves that it is not true. The central government dispatched experts of infectious disease control to Wuhan and finally realised the situation is at the worst. The city of Wuhan is locked down on 23 Jan. Later Dr. Li - the whistleblower died from COVID-19 in Feb and it became the darkest moment in 2020 that every Chinese won't forget.
From that point till now, China was taking all it had with the most serious measurements to fight the disease. You see, the political system of China has many negative aspects when comes to freedom of speech, censorship, control of personal behavior, etc. But it is always a 2-edge sword. No one can ignore its huge positive effect in combating COVID-19.
1. The Chinese New Year celebration is mostly canceled immediately nationwide. Then all mass gatherings were canceled.
2. People were asked to stay at home, work remotely. Schools have been shut down nationwide as a precaution.
3. Medical resources had been re-allocated to Wuhan from all over the country with national troops to arrive as extra support to build facilities and offer support.
4. Daily live press update has been conducted in every major city to report the current situation and educate everyone on how to protect yourselves.
5. Comprehensive patients' contact tracking methods had been implemented with the efforts of both government and community so that every citizen can check online to see if they have close contact with a confirmed case.
6. 14 days quarantine method is implemented for close contacts with strict rules to follow.
7. People only go out when has to, and always wear a mask and keep a distance from other people.
8. The government and central bank issued support to SMEs. People in isolation but working during the period need to be paid by law. Daily life needs to be maintained including aspects like food and drink supply etc.
Now with the continuous decline of infectious number in China, when you look back, it is not saying China has done everything right, there are definitely many shitty things at the beginning. We are questioning and condemning the government why we had the chance to stop it but we failed. And there are people who died, families destroyed and a total tragedy made everyone devastated. But what can we learn from that? Apart from the Chinese system is about censorship, they want to suppress panic before they know what that is. Well, many countries are doing the same things now.
People around the world are saying (even some leaders) this is another type of flu. Flu has killed more people than this coronavirus. Keep calm, wash hands and just pay attention when goes to mass gatherings. Mass gathering no need to be canceled as there are not many cases confirmed yet. You don't have to test if you do not have a symptom. An asymptomatic person won't infect you. Spend over 15 minutes with a patient count as close contact. Sounds familiar? This is exactly what we are doing in January and every claim can be proved wrong with our confirmed cases with detailed tracking info. And this is exactly what Italy was doing several weeks ago, and look at what is the consequence. We know it needs the courage to sacrifice the economy and other things, but people's life is more important. It is not flu, it is a new virus with higher death rate and no cure/vaccine. Scientists are still learning about its behaviors and here are still new studies coming out (like it may attack your nerve and reproductive system). Now, do you know as a Chinese looking at some countries' reactions, how much worry we have? You have a chance to stop it. You still have. Don't waste it.
I fully understand the political system difference means western countries could not taken the same measurements as China. But still, things need to be done like better virus tracking and recording, better allocation of medical resources (learn how Chinese doctors protect themselves and don't make another Dr. Li Wenliang case occur in your country) and stop mass gathering even if it is not severe in your country yet. Another thing I could understand that westerners do not have a habit to wear masks and officials are not encouraging you to wear. This is due to the fact that you do not have enough in stock. If everyone is wearing, then doctors will in shortage. But don't discriminate against those who wear a mask in public. They are protecting themselves as well as others. Because the incubation period may not have symptoms but do infect others. Even if you are strong, you definitely don't want it to be transferred to your family.
OK, I think I have written enough to read and think about. I don't want to create panic but I want everyone to be serious about this. Because James Bond fans around the world are a kind of family for me. This world has been changing so much in recent years and every one of us is connected now. I never thought James Bond film will postpone because of this but now I think the producer made a good call. It is a social responsibility. I do hope we could overcome this before November and then I could enjoy No Time to Die at least three times in the cinema. I really look forward to the celebration after this.
For the next three weeks...
But you see, what I don´t understand, the numbers I posted above are directly from the CDC website, and they were online yesterday, not at some time in the past. Is the same CDC at the same time reporting numbers in this range that differ by a factor of ten?
If the relations are as you quote, then everything would be easier to understand. But the numbers I quoted are all from highly official websites, CDC and ECDC. And with a worldwide reported death toll
As for countries with little access to proper health care: Germany has a very high rate of annual flu vaccination, yet this winter alone so far 202 deaths are being reported.
Again, I´m not trying to downplay the serious nature of Covid-19. I just wonder about the factual numbers.
That's ok, his walk will cure the virus.
Unless Vince blows out both his quads
At times I wonder if the number of cases listed for each country by the media is even real..... Definitely adding to the paranoia and fear to the population.
50.000.000 people died from the Spanish flu in just two years in the last century and mankind is still here.
No, this is not the end. But if we don't create measures to prevent further pandemics this may very well be the beginning of it, because globalisation permits a quicker and further spread of diseases, not to mention that climate change and global warming are a sure recipe for further pandemics as well.
We must learn from this. We must change.
With regards to toilet paper....i don't get that.. Haha... Its like gold for some reason. Why is that? I understand if people rush to buy canned food etc to stock up.... But toilet paper? :))
No, it is not the end. Unless you are older than 60 with other health issue (especially your lungs) or generally over 80. Because those are the people at risk, i.e. our parents and grandparents, even if they do not see it that way yet. If the intensive care units are full, then the chances of dying from this in this group are apparently around 25%, from the figures we have from China and Italy.
All the measures that governments are implementing right now have the single reason to slow the spread to a degree that our hospitals can cope with the new severe cases. So please take care of your elderly relatives! Do the shopping for them so that they are not forced to mix with potentially infectious people who cannot know if they transmit virus or not. And ideally convince them to abstain from going to the gym, to choir practice or whatever social activity they fill their days with until the current infection wave ebbs down. If they contract a serious infection later this year, chances are that emergency care units are fit to care for them. Right now, most are not.
Too true. :))
I think it's very unwise to spread such thoughts, @imranbecks. No, this is not the end. Yes, the population will be reduced by the virus, but barely. Human civilisation will not be wiped out. The "ugly" look of things, total lockdown and whatnot, is meant to prevent more chaos.
Lest we forget, a virus needs its host to survive. By mutating into an absolute killer virus, it would put itself at an evolutionary disadvantage, which nature never does. In essence, if the virus went crazier than now, it would effectively eliminate itself. The quicker its hosts die, the sooner it stops spreading.
The only real threat to our civilisation is people who put fear and emotion ahead of rational thinking, who would turn to religion for advice rather than to science, who forget that it's actually a sign of how strong our civilisation is that we are able to act the way we are. We're not bowing to this virus, people; we're not cowering away from it because it's supposedly too late already. We're fighting it, and we're using relatively simple tools like keeping people quarantined. We're not burning people at stakes, or stuffing them together in a "valley of the lepers", or taking them to gas chambers. We're not telling everyone to evacuate their homes and leave their belongings behind. We're not tearing up families or installing martial law. We're not shutting down power supplies...
We are barely scraping off the top layers of our daily freedom, a freedom which is otherwise still opulent. Food supplies are not gone! The Internet is not gone! You can still buy and consume. Your government is still keeping you updated. You still have a house. Okay, no theatre, sports events, parties or visits to restaurants. Poor, poor us. Granted, as with most crises, some will lose their jobs, some will lose loved ones. And as with most crises, people will go looking for the "guilty" party, for the ones who are to blame. It's in our nature to do so. But even if we point to illegal trade and leisure flights, it all runs a lot deeper than that. Corona is a lot like SARS. We could have started developing a wide range of possible vaccines years ago. But that costs money. And who wants to pay for something useful, right? No, we pay for stupid things, like the tools to fight wars. And we elect leaders who want to build walls or brexit away from their union, rather than leaders who invest in high-level scientific R&D. There you have it, we are all to blame. But hopefully, we learn from all this. Hopefully, a great many more of our tax dollars or pounds or euros will now be channelled off to the right places, like labs developing vaccines in anticipation of something like this.
Still, we can focus on what is temporarily--and I must emphasise that word--being taken away for us, but that would not be clever. There's so much we still have; not just the basic things that ultimately matter but most other aspects of modern society remain intact. This crisis will go away. There will be tears and regret; there will also be an opportunity to reflect on things, to introspectively consider our ways, to rebuild our economy (which is usually the onset for some prosperous times), and to come better prepared next time (hopefully). Meanwhile, our planet can breathe a little, people can reconnect where it matters most: at home; lessons in modestly can be learned; priorities can be redefined. Crises rarely lead to worse times, unless under undemocratic, absolute regimes.
So what's with the apocalyptic thinking, huh? That spreads like a virus too, and may indeed prove more destabilizing than corona itself. Suggesting that we are slowly being wiped out by this virus is not just false, it's a poisonous thought. It brings out the worst in people when we need them at their best. It spurs them on to raid food stores for no reason or to impede medical and other services when we need them the most. Corona affects us all right now, but for most, for the vast majority of people, it will come and go and leave us with scary memories like cigarette burns on film. Maybe many countries didn't act soon enough, but overacting now is not going to compensate for that. So please, no end-of-the-world scenarios.