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We’re seeing the end of bloated blockbusters, yes, but we’re not seeing not the end of movies. Chin up people!
They’ll halve the budget on B26 and get it out about 2023 or 2024. Easily possible to get another low budget B27 out in the later 2020s and then B28 in the early 2030s. Maybe even possible to get B29 released before the copyright expires.
I'm thinking 2024 for B26 as well.
And the USA recorded over 63,000 infections yesterday.
I believe they're right, not because they have a source or anything, but simply because at this point it is very predictable.
They cant leave it on the shelf forever.Better to have the film out and making some income rather than nothing at all.Oh and the days of a glitzy premiere are gone for years now.Craig has signed his last autograph and posed for his last selfie for adoring fans at world premieres sadly.
Sadly this may also be difficult to achieve. Even if we remove the US out of the equation, there are still too many countries around the globe which wouldn't be able to give NTTD a wide release. I don't know if EON/MGM would be willing to release a $200 million budget film relying only on Europe.
If things don’t turn for the better in 2021 then that is what they must do, because they can either (1) release in Europe and earn a pittance, or (2) they do not release it at all, in which case they go bust.
The film companies are gambling that a global cinema market will reappear in 2021. That is what they are waiting for, and is why they are holding their films back.
But the film companies cannot predict the future any more than anyone else can.
If a global cinema market does not reappear in 2021 then the film companies will have to decide what to do with the year-old product that is sitting on their shelves, earning zero income, while they bleed cash from their diminishing reserves.
Film companies are businesses like all other businesses, and at some point they have to put their products on the market, or they go bust. They cannot hang on indefinitely in the hope that a billion-dollar cinema audience may reappear. They can hold on for a few months, which is what we are seeing them do. But in the spring of 2021, if not earlier, we will see some very tough decisions being made.
I dont think they can wait that long.They will have no product making money and go out of business.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/analyst-cuts-box-office-estimate-no-cinemas-before-september-1302969
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Deadline is now also reporting that Tenet is unlikely to open in August.
Box office in 2020 is expected to decline by nearly 70% from the $11.4 billion taken in during 2019. That would be worse than the 55% to 60% plunge previously forecasted.
https://deadline.com/2020/07/tenet-release-unlikely-in-august-2020-movie-box-office-to-drop-70-percent-analyst-predicts-1202983984/amp/
The Deadline article is the most telling. In fact, I'd draw your attention to this paragraph:
Beyond this year, we do believe there is pent up demand for consumers to get out of their houses for entertainment although the ramp up in attendance will likely be gradual,” Handler wrote. He is projecting domestic box office of $9.1 billion in 2021, still well below recent levels, but a “back to normal” 2022, with $11.5 billion.
I believe that 2020 is 'over' for the movies due to the USA's inability to re-open. Which means that films will have to open in either the middle or late 2021. Which feels so very absurd.
Previously, I thought that a February 2021 release would solve NTTD's current dilemma. However, this is now probably too optimistic. Therefore, we need to look further afield.
Simply put, 2020 isn't happening and people need to resign themselves to this fact. There was a good video from Calvin Dyson which pretty articulately explained this and how at this rate there is a dangerous chance that NTTD could be the 60th anniversary film(!) - I wouldn't go that far yet. But I do think that 2021 is the year. The only real hope that we get the film in November is if the Oxford vaccine announces it's success soon-ish and we begin rolling out the vaccine in Aug/Sept. It could happen still...but you can't plan around something that 'could' happen. We 'know' the virus is here and hasn't been contained.
At this rate, I can see the film arriving sometime in May-August 2021 😭😭😭😭😭😭 (I don't see them pushing to November 2021)....which would mean Bond's return to the summer season and potentially the first Bond since LTK to release in summer. Though considering current events, there really is no such thing as seasons or time. Everything just feels like that week between Xmas and New Years - except the days last longer and the sun is out.
They have to release their films at just the right moment when they think they will make the most money, because making the most money keeps their staff in their jobs, and makes future projects more likely.
But no one knows when that moment will be.
They can’t release this year because November is the worst possible time. The USA is likely to still be in a mess, with many cinemas shut, and moreover the northern hemisphere will be heading into winter when infectious diseases are at their worst, so people will be staying away from cinemas. It will be a disaster to have NTTD in cinemas over the winter.
February 2021 or thereabouts is also the worst possible time. It’s too close to November for the disease to have shifted much, and winter is likely to have increased infections anyway, so audiences will still be scared.
But spring-summer 2021 is also the worst possible time, because some cinema chains may have gone bust by then. The distributors will have missed their chance to maximise the number of screens the film is shown on. Also, the film will be over a year old by then. That’s a whole year of income that they have lost. So, they need to release the film earlier, but unfortunately ‘earlier‘ is the worst possible time, for reasons outlined above
It is an absolute mess. I think only a vaccine can save it.
It also may signal a shift in how films look and feel.
Lord of the Rings to an extent ushered in a new era of big epic filmmaking, post 9/11 things got serious, post batman things went dark. maybe the pandemic will do the same in reverse.
I have thought and said all along we aren’t getting Bond this year. I can’t realistically see anything for at least 18 months.
Eon are not going to take a $400 million dollar gamble.
The quicker they start making some money back on it the quicker they can get started on Bond 26 and stop Bond disappearing forever.
It wouldn't be ideal, but they could find a way around that. Even in countries that have theatres open, there won't be big press conferences and/or premieres. Most of the marketing (interviews and the such) could be handled online. It wouldn't be the same, but they could find a way to make it work. Most of the effort would go into video marketing, and Bond has an edge thanks to it being such a recognisable IP.
https://deadline.com/2020/07/california-gavin-newsom-closes-restaurants-indoor-operations-in-state-1202984427
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A complete shutdown in L.A is on the brink of being issued as hospitals are near full capacity, and new infections are surging.
https://deadline.com/2020/07/los-angeles-near-red-theat-level-coronavirus-hospitalizations-la-county-stats-1202984844/
See you in 2021, Double-Oh-Seven.
That would appear to, um, not be the case. *gestures at the everything*
Thats the thing though hasnt it? Its already been delayed by production difficulties and Bond has been absent from the big screen for five years already not 2-3.
Sad truth is that if they had stuck with Danny Boyle as the films director then they wouldnt have been delayed and had the film out long ago.
It would’ve been impossible to stick with a director who was asking for a 100% creative control (with no compromises and no rewrites) over an almost 60 years family franchise...
Anyway, given my opinions regarding both Cary and Danny’s work if we are talking about wrapping up the Craig era... better a 2022 NTTD than a weird standalone Danny Boyle JB movie in 2019...
Boyle left the film in August 2018. NTTD wasn't delayed to April 2020 until February 2019.
Had NTTD came out in February 2020 as planned with Boyle as director, can anyone tell me how much money it would have grossed world-wide in 1 month?
Edit: Sorry, I forgot their was a delay from November 2019 to February 2020 once Boyle left production.
Absolutely. Fukunaga is brilliant. Boyle is not.