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And NTTD is a $200 million budget film. DVD sales and PVOD/VOD sales means it would flop. Mulan's disappointing numbers prove that. The reason a delay is being discussed is because NTTD risks flopping due to November's potentially terrible box office results. A straight to DVD release does not solve anything. It just means a financial disaster anyway. Which EON are trying to avoid hence a delay is more likely to happen.
Are you seriously accusing me of causing deaths? That is quite insulting, and actually an incredibly stupid thing to say. If you are so unhappy with these numbers, do not read them and stop responding with your nonsense. The deaths and cases numbers won't magically stop happening just because I've stopped posting them. You are advocating for censorship, which I find morally abhorant and downright criminal.
Stop projecting stuff. Stop attacking me with false accusations. Just go outside and read a book. You seem very disturbed by my posts, so you're the one who needs a bowl of fresh air. Maybe then you can start adding meaningful arguments to this discussion instead of the usual anger towards facts about what is happening around the world.
California estimates COVID-related hospitalizations will rise by 89% in the next month.
https://deadline.com/2020/09/california-coronavirus-update-state-estimates-covid-related-hospitalizations-will-rise-89-in-the-next-month-1234585640/
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European cinemas boosted ‘Tenet,’ but will a second COVID wave close them again? - Along with uneven domestic box office, Hollywood studios are keeping an eye on rising infection rates overseas.
For all the talk of Warner Bros. releasing “Tenet” before American audiences were ready to go back to theaters, the studio may have caught the best window to release the $200 million-budgeted film internationally. Many major box office markets in Europe and Asia have contained the virus in the third quarter, giving “Tenet” the best opportunity to reach as wide an audience as possible in a pandemic-affected environment. So far, the film has grossed $217 million overseas, which Warner Bros. International Distribution Chief Andrew Cripps said equates to an estimated 30 million tickets sold despite the wildly uneven environments that “Tenet” has opened into around the world.
But whether or not “No Time to Die” moves could largely hinge on Bond’s homeland, the U.K.. Reluctant to close businesses again, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a 10 p.m. curfew for business and other measures in an effort to drop infection rates as the country faces a second wave. While this will mean that British theaters will lose late-night screenings, it’s not yet a critical blow.
What would be is a drop in moviegoer turnout over the coming months or, if hospitalizations and deaths in the country escalate, a more widespread shutdown like the one that occurred at the onset of the pandemic. Either situation could force “No Time to Die” to move, as Britain has been a critical box office market for Bond with more than $100 million grossed for both “Skyfall” and “Spectre.” For now, a spokesperson for MGM said it is committed to a fall opening, with a U.K. release coming via Universal on November 12 and other countries getting release later that month.
https://www.thewrap.com/european-theaters-tenet-second-covid-wave-close-again/
I post these again as they have been buried below unnecessary spam by certain members.
I am done with your absolute stupidity. Don’t ever bother answering to my posts again. You are nothing but a troll at this point. And a spammer. I no longer have time to waste on morons like you. The mods can see from your latest trolling how you are the only one launching childish attacks against others. Go have fun with other COVID idiots who think the pandemic is fake news.
Here's the thing about statistics. Even with that 89% increase (which is NOT good, I agree), the total would be just over 4,000. The key is whether or not that trend would continue for several months.
To put this back in perspective: in July, California had nearly 10,000 people hospitalized due to COVID.
The pleasure's all ours. Hey, here's a little scoop for you: that long-awaited Jinx movie will be coming out as soon the COVID-19 vaccine hits your local pharmacy... :)>-
That's rather childishly spiteful of you.
Agreed, I often disagree with Daltoncraig007's views but there's no reason to wish him any harm.
Stop acting like a prat. Thanks.
Tenet so far has made under US $17m in the US and US $300m globally. (By "US $##" I mean, measured in US dollars, since that's what I've read) It may have been helped globally by the downturn -- recently -- of the pandemic numbers in many non-US markets. Unfortunately, though, those non-US markets are showing an uptick in pandemic numbers now. Of course, Tenet is not yet done with showings and with collecting receipts, but SP was an US $800m earner ! SF over US $1b !
C Nolan reportedly was adamant on releasing Tenet at this time, saying it would "bring audiences back." However, not all audience members are like the folks who crowd into restaurants and bars once those are re-opened, as if the health concerns did not affect them or have gone away.
I think that what would more likely be much more effective in "bringing audiences back" is not the quality or attractiveness of a film, or films, but a perception of safety for the audience members. So - viewing at home, in that regard, looks better, even without as large a screen or big a sound system.
It is a unique situation, but I don't think the producers, distributors, etc. are finding it easy to say something like "Oh, well, bad times, this one won't make as much." Additionally, they might have contractual obligations not easily avoided by claiming force majeure has relieved them of such obligations. I might be wrong, since this "oh, well" approach does seem to be part of Disney's decision-making for Mulan, in going right to VOD.
It is difficult to see the future clearly, but the cinema business -- like many others -- may be in for a long period before audience numbers rise and receipts rise. It might be that including home video receipts along with "real" box office numbers will come to more commonly be observed as a measure of a film's financial success. Those numbers have been tracked, of course, but seen separately.
Of course, if shutdowns return in a number of markets, then movie folks won't have much choice but to wait, or "give up" and go right to VOD -- assuming, contractually, they even have that option. (Please recall that even if a reasonable person might say the circumstances are unusual and it should be allowed, those parties with an interest in cinematic release might well feel differently. I've not seen any articles concerning this aspect of Mulan's release.)
So -- if they wait, how long ? Other big releases already have been rescheduled to Summer 2021. Even that might be too soon. Later in 2021 or just in 2022 would not be shocking to me. Of course this would be disappointing to Bond film fans, and movie lovers overall, but these are not normal circumstances.
As did much of western civilization. At least we're in good company.
Stop calling people '' prat '' Thanks.
What are our guesses, both conservative and optimistic.
I think the three core markets are: (1) The UK, (2) The USA, and (3) China. Optimistically, NTTD should be able to make at least $100m in each of these territories.
🇺🇸
Now, that is going to be troublesome for the USA which still has NY and CA - the two biggest moviegoing markets - under lockdown. But, word is that those markets are moving in the right direction and will be able to open by Thanksgiving. Bond will play over the Xmas period as well which means it will keep making money until March 2021.
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The UK is also a bit of a question-mark currently. The virus is getting worse (with the biggest increase of cases being reported yesterday), though deaths are still low. Which either means we are about to see an uptick in line with spring going into winter or treatments are effective enough to afford loosening restrictions. We will see over the next few weeks. However, there is a fear that another lockdown or a newly-touted 'circuit break' of 2 weeks could be introduced. Both will severely dampen public confidence to attend cinemas whenever they reopen.
But this is Bond and a Daniel Craig-led film no less. Worse case scenario is the UK puts forward a $50m final gross. Which I think would be akin to a disaster. Something close to $80-100m feels likely. But it's very dependent on the next 2-3 weeks here.
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China is the only market operating on anything close to full capacity. The issue though is that US titles are underperforming and local fare is booming. Bond is popular in China. But considering the trend emerging Bond could make between $60-80m if we look at the current trajectory.
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Europe is a bigger wildcard and I'll concede to not really being aware of how it is faring at the box office during this pandemic. Though considering how well it has done with other Bond films, I think another $200-300m wouldn't be too wild a suggestion.
But I think a final box office gross in line with CR's run of $606.1m would be a success. Though I think it likely the film could max out at $500m. So much is also dependent on how 'good' it is....if it gets critic attention, then $600m could be on the cards. But it's going to be very tough to get to those numbers without a long theatrical run going into spring next year (which also means no VOD or streaming for NTTD till spring 2021).
The thing that will surprisingly help NTTD is the distinguished competition. Usually, we talk of how competition is the last thing a film needs at the box office, but Disney-Pixar's Soul will prop NTTD up at the box office. Really both films need each other to make that November window work. They are big ticket items that can get the public excited. If they have a good experience at one, you'd be remiss not to return for the other. They appeal to totally different audiences, but provide consumer confidence that 'movies are back.'
EDIT: Nevermind, I just found these: https://www.joblo.com/movie-news/disney-moves-black-widow-to-summer-2021-amid-significant-scheduling-changes
https://dapsmagic.com/2020/09/black-widow-postponed-to-may-2021-pixars-soul-to-stay-in-november-2020/
Nope.
Good post, though I hadn't even heard of the Disney film until now. Which says a lot.