Skyfall: Billion Dollar Bond

htall90 · November 2012

By the end of the weekend it should be at around $160 mil US so $200 mil will be easy could go on to maybe $240 mil at most i think but you never know. If it grosses less then $40 mil this weekend that is a big drop considering it's good reviews but all record breakers drop fairly hard in there 2nd weeks like the dark knight dropped 53% despite it being loved by everyone and there dog.

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

'Casino Royale' (The first weekend it had stiff competition from 'Happy Feet':
--► $14,741,135 ● 00.0% ● Opening Day, Friday 11.17.2006.
--► $15,414,153 ● + 04.6% ● Saturday 11.18.2006.
--► $10,677,868 ● - 30.7% ● Sunday, 11.19.2006.
--► $03,836,772 ● - 64.1% ● Monday, 11.20.2006.
--► $04,502,582 ● + 17.4% ● Tuesday, 11.21.2006.
--► $06,556,349 ● + 45.6% ● Wednesday, 11.22.2006.
--► $07,538,925 ● + 15.0% ● Thursday, 11.23.2006.
--► $12,934,978 ● + 71.6% ● Friday, 11.24.2006.
--► $11,687,563 ● - 09.6% ● Saturday, 11.25.2006.
--► $06,163,333 ● - 47.3% ● Sunday, 11.26.2006.
--► $01,733,036 ● - 71.9% ● Monday, 11.27.2006.
--► $01,770,492 ● + 02.2% ● Tuesday, 11.28.2006.
--► $01,654,438 ● - 06.6% ● Wednesday, 11.29.2006.
--► $01,551,530 ● - 06.2% ● Thursday, 11.30.2006.
==============================================================
TOTAL after 14 days: $100,763,154

'Quantum Of Solace' (strong weekend opening, smashed between the two 'power opening weekends' of 'Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa' and, indeed, 'Twilight'):
--► $27,007,026 ● 00.0% ● Opening Day, Friday 11.14.2006.
--► $25,831,827 ● - 04.4% ● Saturday 11.15.2006.
--► $14,690,029 ● - 43.1% ● Sunday, 11.16.2006.
--► $04,131,092 ● - 71.9% ● Monday, 11.17.2006.
--► $04,502,582 ● - 01.9% ● Tuesday, 11.18.2006.
--► $03,322,821 ● - 18.0% ● Wednesday, 11.19.2006.
--► $03,047,678 ● - 08.3% ● Thursday, 11.20.2006.
--► $08,464,826 ● + 177.7% ● Friday, 11.21.2006.
--► $11,791,316 ● + 39.9% ● Saturday, 11.22.2006.
--► $06,451,803 ● - 45.3% ● Sunday, 11.23.2006.
--► $02,202,496 ● - 65.9% ● Monday, 11.24.2006.
--► $02,937,319 ● + 33.4% ● Tuesday, 11.25.2006.
--► $04,067,578 ● + 38.5% ● Wednesday, 11.26.2006.
--► $04,586,803 ● + 12.8% ● Thursday, 11.27.2006.
==============================================================
TOTAL after 14 days: $122,584,982

'Skyfall' (I expect a $50,000,000 2nd weekend is possible, limiting the 2nd weekend fallout to less than 50% compared to its first weekend):
--► $32,704,077 ● 00.0% ● Opening Day, Friday 11.09.2006 (Including IMAX screenings and limited releases on Thursday).
--► $33,859,544 ● + 11.0% ● Saturday 11.10.2006.
--► $24,001,093 ● - 29.1% ● Sunday, 11.11.2006.
--► $11,327,664 ● - 52.8 ● Monday, 11.12.2006.
--► $07,215,854 ● - 36.3% ● Tuesday, 11.13.2006.
--► $05,541,933 ● - 23.2% ● Wednesday, 11.14.2006.
--► $05,186,943 ● - 06.4% ● Thursday, 11.15.2006.
--► $12,350,000 ● + 138.1% ● Friday, 11.16.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Saturday, 11.17.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Sunday, 11.18.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Monday, 11.19.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Tuesday, 11.20.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Wednesday, 11.21.2006.
--► $?????????????? ● ????????% ● Thursday, 11.22.2006.
==============================================================
TOTAL after 8 days: $132,187,000

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

See the list above. On average, 'Skyfall' is holding up pretty strong. The Friday figures of $12,350,000 are again corrected estimates. Previous estimates for 'Skyfall' on Friday were $11,800,000.

Moreover, on daily percentage drop from 'Skyfall' are pretty much stabile and nowhere near the dramatic decrease of the daily figures for 'Quantum Of Solace'.

Samuel001 · November 2012

What do you think the final US take will be @Gustav_Graves? Still going for $265 million?

bondsum · November 2012

Estimates are in for the opening day of Breaking Dawn Part 2 and, as expected, it’s a monster. Summit Entertainment is reporting that, from 4,070 locations, the final chapter in The Twilight Saga took in a reported $71.2 million.

1. Breaking Dawn Part 2 Friday $71,200,000 Total $71.2
2. Skyfall Friday $12,350,000 Total $132.1

Samuel001 · November 2012

It's not going to beat the last Twilight film and rank only third out of the five. That's a shock.

bondsum · November 2012

I have to say I don't think SF will be challenging the top 4 Bond pics of all time, even though it's yet to open in Oz or China.

Samuel001 · November 2012

It'll get to $800 million which is better than the $750 million many thought but you're right with the international box office slowing down, it was always going to be tough to earn more than that.

We'll see though, I'm sure many still think it can earn well over $900 million...

Still yet to open in:

Next week: Australia - 22 November
Next week: New Zealand - 22 November
In two weeks: South Africa - 30 November
In two weeks: Japan - 1 December
In three weeks: Dominican Republic - 6 December
Next year: China - January/February

forgotmyusername · November 2012

It could be our OHMSS - the emotional undertone is going to make it our Holiday Bond film from now on...i think we'll have a mini-boost prior and post Christmas if it is allowed to stay in the theaters that long...

I'm sure $800 or $900 million shouldn't be sniffed at.

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

Samuel001 wrote:

What do you think the final US take will be @Gustav_Graves? Still going for $265 million?

First of all, I didn't know so many brainless teenage girls liked this.....Twilight-shit so much. These movies so far are just one big extended mating ritual...that ends in absolutely nothing. Man, I'd rather watch a porn movie. You get the stuff straight into your face then :-).

Anyway, so far I still think it'll get close to $265 million in the US. Off course 'Skyfall' will drop....but once the big drops are gone in the upcoming two weeks, the longevity of the movie will pay itself back. Then there is December. Still lots of families would love to see a proper classic Bond flick.

Moreover, I think we tend to forget how big 'Skyfall' is outside the US.

bondsum · November 2012

Thanks for those @Samuel001. I think apart from Japan and the other two countries I mentioned in my previous post I don't see this catching the older epics now. I also feel that most of China would have probably seen it by the time of the release date with their pirate DVD trade sucking up most of the profit. I might be wrong but wasn't Ghost Protocol released closer to its US debut than Skyfall was to its original release date? That might be an important factor when it comes to ticket sales in China.

I also don't see this as a Yuletide 007 flick in the same way as OHMSS was, @forgotmyusername. It's just a little too sombre for there to be any Xmas appeal. I think the Hobbit and a few other family friendly movies will clean up about this time instead.

It's still not finished but I suspect it's beginning to run out of momentum.

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

bondsum wrote:

Thanks for those @Samuel001. I think apart from Japan and the other two countries I mentioned in my previous post I don't see this catching the older epics now. I also feel that most of China would have probably seen it by the time of the release date with their pirate DVD trade sucking up most of the profit. I might be wrong but wasn't Ghost Protocol released closer to its US debut than Skyfall was to its original release date? That might be an important factor when it comes to ticket sales in China.

I also don't see this as a Yuletide 007 flick in the same way as OHMSS was, @forgotmyusername. It's just a little too sombre for there to be any Xmas appeal. I think the Hobbit and a few other family friendly movies will clean up about this time instead.

It's still not finished but I suspect it's beginning to run out of momentum.

Wayyy too early to say it's beginning to run out of momentum.......to catch the $265 million in the US and the $900 million worldwide.

I think the problem really is the fact that we are paying so close attention to Skyfall's soaring boxoffice numbers, that any daily percentage sales decrease or downfall is considered a 'huge letdown'. I know one should not be influenced by that.

By the way, your comparison with OHMSS doesn't stand. OHMSS really was a risky move back in 1969. Critics and general audience could not deal with those romantic scenes, where Bond is proposing Tracy and where they marry, then ending with a clear bullit between Tracy's eyes.

Nowadays however, things have changed. We live in a post 9/11 world. Even big blockbuster movies like 'The Hunger Games', 'Lord Of The Rings' and 'The Dark Knight' have these 'too sombre' appeal. Movies have become darker and grittier in general...and the audience will take that for granted.

Having said that, 'Skyfall' is by far the funniest of the three Craig Bond films.....if you ask me. And it will certainly not have the decrease in figures that 'Quantum Of Solace' suffered from.

htall90 · November 2012

I think it may be running out of momentum in markets it's already open in but with big markets like australia and japan to open it still has a lot of money to make at least another $200 mil. Tbf GG Skyfall drop 60% this friday from last friday which a lot worse then anyone predicted i was seeing only a 40% drop in some articles online. Hopefully it pics up today in the US as i predicted a 50% drop for the weekend so around 60% would be a shame.

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

htall90 wrote:

I think it may be running out of momentum in markets it's already open in but with big markets like australia and japan to open it still has a lot of money to make at least another $200 mil. Tbf GG Skyfall drop 60% this friday from last friday which a lot worse then anyone predicted i was seeing only a 40% drop in some articles online. Hopefully it pics up today in the US as i predicted a 50% drop for the weekend so around 60% would be a shame.

Not sure.... I mean, 'Skyfall' opened with such astonishing figures on Friday last week in the US. Having said that, pay attention the the non-US market as well.

LeChiffre · November 2012

Does anyone out there from the US think the Thankssgiving weekend will give SF a boost? Being a Brit I don't know how big deal that weekend is for you guys in terms of cinema going.

Hany · November 2012

I think it will still make it to $200 mill in the US. But I do not see it making 800 worldwide. It will only lose momentum from now on. Another $200 mill worldwide is a very long-shot.

bondsum · November 2012

Gustav_Graves wrote:

By the way, your comparison with OHMSS doesn't stand. OHMSS really was a risky move back in 1969. Critics and general audience could not deal with those romantic scenes, where Bond is proposing Tracy and where they marry, then ending with a clear bullit between Tracy's eyes.

I don't think you're correct, @Gustav_Graves about OHMSS. There's a myth that On Her Majesty's Secret Service was a box-office failure. It wasn't. The film performed admirably, out grossing its nearest competitor almost two to one at the U.S. box office where, according to Variety, it was the most popular film in the country for four solid weeks. That would be the Xmas period. It generated enough rentals at the box-office to claim ninth position on the box office chart for the year 1970. The persistent belief that it was a flop arises from its disappointing showing in comparison to the previous three Sean Connery Bond films, all of which made twice as much money. And in the UK it became the second-highest grossing film of 1969. Not my words, but the words from MI6's Trivia page on OHMSS. Besides, I was one of the kids in the cinema at the time I can reassure you that it was packed solid over that period.

Germanlady · November 2012

This quote from deadline doesn't see it as major drop and they are not known to bullshit IMO

‘Breaking Dawn Pt 2′ Opens To Giant $71.2M Friday, $135M Weekend, $275M Global But No Record For Final Twilight Saga Film; Holdovers ‘Skyfall’ #2 & ‘Lincoln’ #3 Strong

LeChiffre · November 2012

As much as I love MI:Ghost Protocol it's a matter of personal pride that SF beats it's ww gross of $690 to prove that Bond is still the Daddy of the spy genre at the box office!

Gustav_Graves · November 2012

bondsum wrote:

Gustav_Graves wrote:

By the way, your comparison with OHMSS doesn't stand. OHMSS really was a risky move back in 1969. Critics and general audience could not deal with those romantic scenes, where Bond is proposing Tracy and where they marry, then ending with a clear bullit between Tracy's eyes.

I don't think you're correct, @Gustav_Graves about OHMSS. There's a myth that On Her Majesty's Secret Service was a box-office failure. It wasn't. The film performed admirably, out grossing its nearest competitor almost two to one at the U.S. box office where, according to Variety, it was the most popular film in the country for four solid weeks. It generated enough rentals at the box-office to claim ninth position on the box office chart for the year 1970. The persistent belief that it was a flop arises from its disappointing showing in comparison to the previous three Sean Connery Bond films, all of which made twice as much money. And in the UK it became the second-highest grossing film of 1969. Not my words, but the words from MI6's Trivia page on OHMSS,

Still, you connect your arguments with the sheer sobre-ness and sombre-ness of OHMSS. That's something you can not fully prove. The reason OHMSS didn't do the box office craziness that its three predecessors did, had to do with the fact that for the very first time in Bond history, someone was going to take over the role from Sean.

Moreover, I know with inflation correction, OHMSS is actually a real success. But not so much if you take into account the investments that were made for this movie. Rebuilding the skihut into Piz Gloria was a costly task. Not to mention the severe freezing circumstances in which the ice car rally chase had to be executed.

Also, and that is a fact: Compared to 'Goldfinger', 'Thunderball' and 'You Only Live Twice' felt like a letdown.

forgotmyusername · November 2012

it doesn't matter anyway, dec 21 2012 is heading our way...is that why they called it Skyfall?

thelivingroyale · November 2012

I think it could reach 4 on the list of Bond films (adjusted).

RogueAgent · November 2012

I think my guess of $825 million might be a pretty good one?

thelivingroyale · November 2012

RogueAgent wrote:

I think my guess of $825 million might be a pretty good one?

I'd say it'll make about that.

Samuel001 · November 2012

Gustav_Graves wrote:

I still think it'll get close to $265 million in the US. Off course 'Skyfall' will drop....but once the big drops are gone in the upcoming two weeks, the longevity of the movie will pay itself back.

That may well be true but anything close to $265 million is not going to happen now. It depends what you think 'close' is. $240 million is even a big ask at this point.

Gustav_Graves wrote:

Moreover, I think we tend to forget how big 'Skyfall' is outside the US.

Yeah, it's big but with nearly all the markets open, the drops will start. Outside the US $70 will be tough this weekend.

Big enough to earn a $200 million increase on the last film - that should be enough to prove this film did as well as could be asked.

Germanlady · November 2012

Sam, I think, from the beginning, you were overly pessimistic and have since uped your numbers. None of us KNOWS, of course, but we have reason to be optimistic. It will regain any muscle it might loose this weekend due to TL. Many are waiting till the worst woohoo is over to see films aside from TL. You will see...

bondsum · November 2012

Actually, Gustav, I think you have your wires crossed. I never said that OHMSS was sombre nor ever implied that it was. It is Skyfall that I believe is the one that is too sombre to take advantage of the Christmas feelgood factor that has seen previous Bonds do well over the same period. I think OHMSS is probably the most Christmas-fied of all the Bonds which was why it did well over that holiday break in 69; sadly it fell away in the New Year but was still a huge success over Christmas.

It was @forgotmyusername that wanted a repeat of OHMSS over the festive period if you read back. My feeling is that it's now going to start falling and as it's a more adult-themed 007 movie and I don't see the belated family Christmas outing that its lighter predecessors got was my point.

Samuel001 · November 2012

It won't earn more once the Twilight thing is over. The drops have began and the only question is how quickly it falls.

From day one I've said $750 million and it looks set for an $800 million total per MGM. That does not mean I've "uped your numbers". Yes, it'll do more than that but not $900 million. I still think that's a long shot.

What do you think the final numbers will be @Germanlady?

Nothing I've said is untrue. It will be very hard to get to $240 million and earn a lot more overseas in the coming weeks. Don't make me out to be the enemy here.

thelivingroyale · November 2012

I reckon over 800 million for sure.

900 million is still pushing it I think but I'd love to be proved wrong.

Suivez_ce_parachute · November 2012

Samuel001 wrote:

Nothing I've said is untrue.

Hm, don't you remember you said there was "NO WAY" that Skyfall would do more than TDKR in any country except the UK ?

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