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RE: Leaving the EU - I believe the future lies elsewhere. The EU as it currently stands isn't stable, and I think within the next 10 years it will fracture. Again, this could be orderly (where there is an inner EU of 'strong more connected nations' vs. an outer EU of 'weaker ones') or it could be messy. The massive EU (read German) trade surplus with the US will not be allowed to stand and Merkel will have to deal with that quickly or face further ramifications. That will put stress on EU finances and growth projections.
So I think the UK has to focus on other areas for growth, just as the US will. Asia is where the game is going to be played, and that is where relationships have to be strengthened and in some cases developed.
The UK will always have an excellent geostrategic positioning between North America and Europe and due to its historical ties with Asia (and particularly India). It can still play its traditional role as an economic and political go-between, but there will have to be some restructuring. I think it will happen in due course, just via economic pressures.
Regarding the mechanics of Brexit - the longer it is delayed, the more uncertainty it creates. I think it may be best to go for the 2019 date and finalize exit as soon as possible after that (meaning compress the 'transition' period which has been proposed to as short a timeframe as possible).
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45586010
Possibly... If this is the case, then I hand it to May, she's played a blinder. But I think the much more likely explanation is good old fashioned incompetence. Cameron was incompetent in calling (and then losing) a totally unnecessary referendum, the only purpose of which was to pacify the swivelled eyed loons in his own party (which has fewer signed up members than the Scottish Nationalists). And now we have hapless May staggering from one humiliation to the next.
I don't think the strategy is to make a bad deal, or show up 'no deal' as a disaster. I think there are simply no good outcomes from Brexit. It's clear by now that the Leavers don't have a single coherent plan for what to do when we leave. What was it that Rees-Mogg revealed as their great plan the other day - an increased military presence in the Falkland Islands was pretty much all it added up to.
No deal is regarded by pretty much anyone who has as serious job in this country as total madness. Any actual 'deal' we strike with the EU is by definition going to be worse than the current excellent deal we have as a member of the EU.
So there you have it. Any way you cut it Brexit = a total mess that leaves Britain poorer, weaker and adrift from its closest allies at a time of global instability unparalleled for decades. It's a dogs breakfast and a national humiliation. But that's apparently what we voted for, so bring it on.
More countries in the world operate under WTO rules than under EU rules.
If we leave the EU next March we don't crash out or fall off a cliff. If the other 164 countries can operate under WTO rules and not go bankrupt then we can do the same. It's fair to say many WTO countries have vast differences in GDP - North America vs South America/Africa etc - but the vast majority of these 164 countries function under WTO without civil wars, economic collapse etc. It's also worth reminding people that Greece did face economic collapse within the EU.
The notion the UK leaves under WTO and it's a disaster for British commerce or EU trading commerce seems nonsense and 'Project Fear' lies.
It seems the Leavers are reduced to now claiming that at least Brexit won't be that bad. All the heady claims it woukd deliver an econonic mirracle have dwindled to 'it'll be a mess but not as bad a mess as the Remainers said it would'.
Can you give one example of a likely good thing to come out of Brexit? Anything?
She is about as pro-active as a tortoise during a hibernation season. Her Chequers deal has been a humiliation. I think she should go - be it now or after we leave (assuming we do!). She is, as they say, "a busted flush." No alternative plan.
Meanwhile, in line with my previous post regarding the establishment setting up a second vote....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45601394
She has been useless and hasn't actually done anything about anything !!
Never seen such a grey looking bunch all round before.
Getting out of the eurocrat claws and preserving some sort of self rule isn t a good thing in itself?
We will have full control over immigration, thats for sure (not likely) and IMHO, thats a good thing.
People, whatever the reasons for anyone were to vote for Brexit, there was never any obligatioin to adopt the euro. And you have always had full control of immigration (not being part of the Schengen accord), except for citizens of other EU member states. So don't give me any complaints about having to accept refugees from Syria or some other drivel, whatever one thinks of that issue. And it was the UK who (at the time) insisted on the EU allowing the influx of people from the then-new Eastern European member states as early as possible, probably at the behest of the former colony-turned-master, wishing to really sock it to what used to be the Soviet Union. So the only thing you gain is fewer Polish plumbers, meaning you are stuck with your own. But at what a price?
Hence not full control.
Full: not lacking or omitting anything; complete.
"a full range of sports facilities"
synonyms: comprehensive, thorough, exhaustive, all-inclusive, all-encompassing, all-embracing, in depth; More
https://twitter.com/hywelowen/status/1007360551981379585
As for me, the most pressing question I have right now is : when I go to Cardiff to see Katherine Jenkins in concert next may, will I need to get a passport, or will my ID card be sufficient to get there ?
I hope this won't happen.
Brexit is an ugly thing, spearheaded by ugly men with ugly intentions. But the common folk, whether they voted for or against Brexit, mustn't suffer such extreme consequences.
Many feel the same way about the EU.
"ugly men" being a perfect example. How does that help?
True. And they are correct.
But leaving the bloody thing will resolve nothing; it'll only make things worse for both sides. We can keep splitting up into smaller and smaller fragments until there is no unity left whatsoever.
Farage and co appealed to chauvinism, nostalgia and fear; such tactics never work out well in the end. America fell under the same spell and look where it is now.
I love the UK and the British people, always have, always will. I have always trusted its decisions and I probably always will, except this once.
Britain's made a bold choice for sure, but it chose an empty box with the word "promise" written on it instead of a political battlefield that is troublesome, complicated and suffering from inertia but having the potential to be something good.
Or so I think. ;-)
Where as the remainers never used fear as their leverage? Both sides used fear (its a powerful tool) Both sides used promises (Cameron promised to stay and negotiate if we voted out, thats rather a big promise)
Either side is looking at the other and picking at their tactics without looking inward and realising that the whole campaign on both sides was childish and patronising with very little truth about.
Im not sure if the campaign had a big effect on either side. Longer term, deeply engrained issues were critical factors IMHO. Was there anything that Cameraon could have said that would have changed the result. Could he have changed the vote of 2% of the voters? I dont think so. We are a stuburn, island race, prefering to do things our own way and loving to look back when we "stood alone" in Europe againts evil etc etc. Farage does not have to use nostalgia. We cover ourselves in it within everyday culture and lap it up.
@patb, I like your post very much. You are absolutely right. Thank you, sir. :)
"the peoples vote" is the perfect example. Can you think of a more childish, patronising phrase that has been created in a desperate attempt to somehow imply that the original vote was not about people (was it robots, cats?) Any polititian, journo or campaigner who seriously uses the term "peoples vote" should be written off/ignored IMHO regarding their useful input into the debate.
No one could present a simple list of Pro's and Con's for remaining or leaving without pushing their agenda.
That lead the average Joe to vote with their heart rather than their heads.
The EU as it was first conceived was a great idea, that would benefit all involved. It has steadily become an undemocratic monster, that will eventually implode.
That being said, there are still a lot of good reasons to remain, as opposed to much less, but perhaps more heartfelt reasons to leave.
Wether it proves right or wrong, ultimately we voted to leave and I believe that we should do it as soon as possible now, to end uncertainty.
Sometimes, voting with your heart is the best thing to do for a nation. What it actually means is "what your gut tells you" and that, as I mentioned, then reverts to long held values about where,how and what we define ourselves as.
We don't think of ourselves as European (it's not co-incidence we did not go for the Euro, drive on the "other" side, keep the mile, pint of beer etc) and I dont think we ever have. We have been unwilling partners in the experiment. The spirit of Churchill still burns brightly (for better or worse) and it's asking too much of most voters to let rationality overide your gut.
Rightly or wrongly, in a few years when all of the balihoo has gone and we have left the EU, we could be a country more in tune/confident with it's own inner values and national self-indentity rather than being stretched in different directions. And that maybe more important than getting hold of a cheap plumber or having to queue at passport control
One thing is clear about this Brexit malarky - you can make up the rules, change your mind, forget/dismiss the results of votes if you want to. 21st century Britain now uses the 'make it up as you go along' model of democracy. I think we need a written constitution so every constitutional law is clear and enforceable. That might avoid future Brexit type shambles.