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There is online speculation that Tenet is a secret sequel to Inception or at least set in the same universe.Watch the trailers for both films back to back and its not as crazy as you might think!
The movie theater I went to left plenty of space between groups (I went alone - dunno how many are allowed to sit together) and the row before you and behind you was blocked for seating. The theater is huge, having 1.250 seats. But they will for sure not even closely be able to run at their capacity. Plus Tenet has quite some runtime.
So I doubt NTTD would only be able to make enough money if it runs for many, many weeks ... which nowadays is a problem of it‘s own. So IF NTTD starts in November as planned AND other movies are pushed to 2021 there is a chance. Otherwise the big budget movies will just canibalize themselves and I see piracy becoming a bigger problem again ... which would make sense then to have an early streaming of the movie available to fight that.
But I doubt that under these circumstances the movie has any chance to make the money they expect or want in the cinema alone and I really think things will become worse here again after the summer/holiday season instead of being better and even more relaxed than now. Germany just extended the ban of mass gatherings like concerts and such unil end of October ...
All too bad but like some others said already: Without a vaccine cinemas won‘t have a chance to get back to normal and thus high budget films will need more than one release channel to make money. A clever combination of cinema + streaming may be the best way to go to use the „release momentum“ and yet reach as many people as possible.
This year will not be about opening weekend numbers. Of course they will be poor.
The strategy is to keep the movies in the theatres there times as long as before Corona. The goal is to have no drops on the 2nd, 3rd etc. weekend.
If that is the case, NTTD moved itself to a very bad release date. Or, more accurately, most big-budget films (NTTD, Wonder Woman, Black Widow, Top Gun, etc) are ruining each other's release dates. With limited allowed capacity, October through December is simply too crowded. NTTD and several other films will have to move to 2021. It's not a question of hitting $1 billion, but to avoid getting close to flopping due to the ongoing pandemic. When you have a $200 million + budget, you can't afford the risk of grossing less than $500/$600/$700 million.
Obviously all studios would want key holiday releases in order to regain as much audience interest as possible. But with limited audience attendance, it's unlikely that anyone is going to make a profit going forward.
I think this has a chance of happening if Tenet is unable to open this summer, or if Tenet simply flops at the box office.
The main advantage Nolan's film has is that it is the only big-budget film releasing in the next 2.5 months. Disney's Mulan is due on July 24th, but this week's development has shown that film's core audience (China) will be unavailable for the near future. Which will give no choice to Disney but to delay it.
If Tenet abandons its summer 2020 release, we will have nothing to ramp up cinema attendance until the next wide releases in September. And by then we enter the very crowded final 4 months of the year, so in this scenario there will be a major exodus of films to 2021 to avoid a streak of very costly flops.
+1
Some thoughts:
Yes I agree. Regarding those months being too crowded in the US NTTD will have 4 weeks without any fresh competition, and a film like Dune coming out 18/12 that doesn’t exactly look like a massive hit (actually, never did).
The problem isn't even direct competition, but any new releases will cut from NTTD's box office intake if social distancing measures are still in place. With capacity capped at 50%, NTTD (or any big budget film) will need to be screened at multiple showings simultaneously to recoup the lost ticket sales. Any new releases will be taking screens away from Bond/Black Widow/etc. This is the prime reason why a November release for NTTD could prove impossible. A $200 million budget doesn't allow you to release in a period where cinema capacity are maxed out at 50% while other films will also be getting their own showings.
Or keep the 90-day window, but once there is a vaccine and theatres allow full capacity, re-release popular films on a staggered basis to allow folks that missed it in the original run to see it on the big screen, whether it's in 2021, 2022, etc.
The 2021 movie calendar is much more crowded than 2020.
The mid-November date is perfect.
There is almost no big movie coming up until December 18th.
Again, the problem is if social distancing measures are still in place in November, the release schedule is too crowded. It's not a matter of 'big movies' that would give Bond competition, but a matter of big budget films having limited box office intake due to cinemas running at 50% attendance. The issue isn't Dune giving Bond competition, or Top Gun giving Bond competition, but having the risk of NTTD flopping due to the pandemic situation. When you have a $200+ million dollar budget with social distancing mesures, NTTD would need zero other films being out in theaters. Thus November may prove to be too crowded, forcing EON to push NTTD to 2021. If Tenet struggles to make money in July/August when it is the only major release in theaters, alarm bells will start to go off everywhere in Hollywood.
Even an indie film with almost no budget coming out in October/November would hurt Bond/Black Widow/Wonder Woman/etc, as that would be 1 less screen available to recoup the lost ticket sales. We are in an unprecedented situation in 2020.
If a vaccine is available then things are probably ok, but if there’s no vaccine then there’s no guarantee that audiences will want to return to cinemas in large numbers.
People might be willing to risk catching Covid in a cinema to watch a movie once, but how many will want to risk it again and again, going back many times to see a film they have already seen? This is the sort of audience that has driven franchise movies to massive box office takes, an audience that returns to cinemas to watch their favourite characters before a film leaves the big screen, but this audience might disappear.
So huge budget films might become too much of a risk. Film companies might prefer to lower the budgets on future releases.
Similarly, there will be economic pressure for shorter films. If you cannot have many people seated in a cinema for a given showing, then you need to increase the number of showings, and that means shorter films.
Classical orchestras are already thinking along these lines as they prepare for post-lockdown concerts. In the past they liked to put on huge 2 hour + concerts, with hundreds of people in an audience. But the new proposals are for shorter concerts, an hour max, and do 2 or even 3 concerts in an evening. That maximises the audience size, and therefore maximises income.
In the highest populated state in Germany (Northrhine Westfalia) theatres are allowed to operate without social distancing since last monday.
By november I believe that all states will be back to normal, not only in Germany, but other countries, too.
“The company said it will begin a multi-phase reopening on July 15, adding that it expects to be nearly fully operational by the July 24 premiere of Disney’s “Mulan.”
“The company also said that phase two ofitsreopening — which will begin when “AMC deems it to be acceptable given local and regional health conditions” — will hit a capacity of 40%. By Labor Day it expects that to be at 50% and full capacity by Thanksgiving.“
- Temperature tests will be administered on the staff and customers who enter the theater, only those with normal temperature can enter.
- Implement an appointment system to control the number of viewers. It is recommended that viewers purchase tickets with non-contact scan code payment methods, remind viewers to keep a safe distance, and set up a "1 meter line" at the checkout counter and waiting area.
- It is recommended that the viewing time should not exceed two hours.
- Staff wear disposable medical masks or medical surgical masks when working. After the mask gets wet or dirty, replace it in time. Customers wear disposable medical masks or medical surgical masks.
This is China. NTTD would not be safe to watch even if it was 90 minutes long, their government will say it is western propaganda. ;-)
https://deadline.com/2020/06/china-movie-theaters-no-re-opening-timetable-cannes-1202968332/
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/mulan-late-july-release-date-jeopardy-1287110
I don't really think we can realistically see any movies coming out until October. I think we're going to see some, if not all, remaining 2020 films move to 2021 at some stage, and who knows where that will leave NTTD.
NTTD will move. At this stage, even October/November is probably too ambitious as it's only 4 months time. I anticipate some big sweeping changes to the release calendar as the film industry needs the domestic box office to survive, something it won't have till a vaccine by the looks of things.
Sadly, the management of the virus has not worked out in an international setting. So basically we get no movies in theatres this year. Whilst cinemas may open in Europe next month, Hollywood studios won't be releasing their blockbuster films till the global marketplace is healthy.
So where does NTTD move to? I guess the best place would be sometime in 2021. I think February is still looking good......what do you think @antovolk ? Bond on Valentine's Day?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-postpones-reopenings-of-malls-movie-theaters-and-gyms-11593033187
Looking at it from another angle, it's still 4 months from now. Things might be a lot better by then.
Cinemas in the UK (re-opening from 4th July) are going to be showcasing a range of older films to help encourage people to start going back to the cinema before Mulan or Tenet come out. I think this is a brilliant idea. I'm in two minds about seeing Tenet so my first cinema trip this year might be to see an older film that I've never seen before!
https://www.screendaily.com/news/uk-cinemas-given-access-to-450-films-to-boost-recovery/5150813.article
What isn't a brilliant idea is UK cinemas not making face masks mandatory for cinema staffs and customers.
And the 'it's still 4 months from now. Things might be a lot better by then.' is something that has been said repeatedly since lockdown began 3 months ago. Things have barely improved since, and as far as the US is concerned (the biggest box office market on the planet), things are actually worse now than they were 2 months ago. Until the US improves, it may prove impossible to release big-budget films like Tenet, NTTD, Wonder Woman, etc.
I simply do not understand how people expect a pandemic that has affected the entire world for over 6 months to just disappear all of a sudden because they wish to see a movie or to get a haircut. The economy is tanking in various sectors, there are millions of unemployed people, a second wave of the outbreak could happen, various world leaders are calling the pandemic a hoax. So no, things won't magically improve. It may take years to get back to normal. Unless you want NTTD to flop because you are so desperate to be able to watch it.
I'm aware of the economy tanking (both in the UK and worldwide). If you have a continuous, sustained lockdown, it will tank even more and millions more people will be unemployed (and some more will die because they weren't able to treated for other illnesses). I have very patiently tolerated the lockdown and, as I've said before, aside from seeing old school friends the cinema is the one activity that I have missed since the lockdown started (I really don't care about pubs or sports matches). I'm just trying to stay positive about things. You might just be pragmatic or realistic about the situation but all you seem to put down are negative reports about films delays, new cases of the virus popping up or occasionally updating the death milestone elsewhere on this forum.
I know the virus won't 'just disappear all of a sudden'. I'm aware that it takes possibly years to develop a successful vaccine and mass distribute it. On the other hand, you can't just hide in your house and wait for it to go away while the economy as well as people's physical and mental health goes down the plughole. You have to start somewhere. Otherwise you might as well seal yourself indoors and never go outside for the rest of your life.
Get on your phone and ask Hollywood to stop delaying films. Get on your phone and ask Trump to handle the pandemic more effectively. If movies didn't get delayed, I wouldn't be posting updates about delays. Do you think I personally decide for films to be delayed so I can annoy you? This may sound shocking to you: the world doesn't revolve around you. I didn't wake up this morning and asked Disney to delay Mulan to ruin your day.
If you want me to only post positive news, then I guess I can invent some good 'ol fake news that NTTD will actually be releasing in August. Or you can stop blaming me for no reason when there aren't positive news to post about here. I think Fox News has what you ask for, but I can't vouch for their authenticity.
And by the way: I've been to the movie theaters twice this week, and I have tickets for a 3rd cinema-going trip tomorrow evening. What have you been doing to support movie theaters lately?
Edit: You can also check the 'Coming Soon to Cinemas' thread where I regularly post updates about new films being announced. But that wouldn't fit your narrative of me only posting about film delays.