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That depends on what is deemed to be feasible.
(And just as an fyi, that production thread is a spoiler thread, it says so in the title - so if you don't want to be spoiled with speculation, the best thing to do is not go into it. Tags are almost always used regardless.)
[/quote]And just as an fyi, that production thread is a spoiler thread, it says so in the title - so if you don't want to be spoiled with speculation, the best thing to do is not go into it. Tags are almost always used regardless.)
Oh I see. I didn't mean as in spoiling it for me, I meant as in possibly spoiling the plot for themselves. I'm perfectly happy with the trailer and maybe some interviews. I'm actually not that interested in speculating about plot details.
:)) Or whether she should be rebooted in Bond 26.
One could say we are rather en-Trenched on the subject ;)
There is zero chance of this film (or any other) of making a billion dollars. This, Tenet, Wonder Woman 84, Black Widow, Fast Furious are all in the same boat. The studios will soon be left with 2 choices: leave their finished movies on the shelf for 2 years or stream. It also means any future big budget movies are unlikely to be green-lit because there won't make enough profit with cinemas unable to show their wares! So we'll be looking at a renaissance of smaller, independent type films which can go straight to streaming without causing studio execs to sweat.
In the best case scenario, assuming all markets will be open, I’d say no more than 400/450 million dollars.
In theory in total it could end up being the same as if it wasn't staggered, it just would be earned over a longer period of time, without a big 'frontloaded' opening weekend. The factors in play here are whether the US will be back to normal and when, whether audiences at large will even be confident to go to the cinema in November/December, and whether the winter wave of the virus will knock plans off course
Assuming theaters will be open in November, do you really believe NTTD would gross 1 billion (over a longer period of time) even tho social distancing and theaters with limited capacity are still at play? Really?
They might just have to accept that in this current environment that it just isn't realistic to make that kind of money.
It will be a low box-office. If it creeps anywhere near $300 million I'd be amazed.
Any film released in the next 12 months will be looking at very poor numbers.
They will either delay again until Summer 2021, or Christmas 2021 (but there's no guarantee things will be better even then without a vaccine - and a lot of movie theatres are facing bankruptcy) or they have limited theatrical release with a quick Home Video / Streaming release a couple of months later.
Either way, we're looking at the lowest performing Bond movie of all time. It's just an awful reality of the times we're living in. EON / Universal must be aware of this.
$300m in gross not net, would still be more successful than LTK.
Another question would be at what point the box office gross is too low for studios to accept releasing big budgets films? Even if they need to get these films off the shelves, I don't think a 400 million $ intake for a $200 million budget is a good risk to take.
Difficult situation isn't it? I think they would want to push them all in to the long grass if possible, some studios maybe can't afford to do that. And if you wait too long the cinemas themselves face going under.
Were we expecting $1billion even before the virus came along, though? I'd have put the most likely number close to SP's total.
Wasn't the industry forecast that NTTD would fall in between SP's $880 million and Skyfall's $1.1 billion (pre-Covid)?
I didn't see that one, @peter!
LTK didn't cost $250 million to make. That's the estimate of what NTTD cost (and that's without marketing!). LTK only cost a fraction of that ($30 million) and saw a decent profit of $150 million. So there is no comparison to make.
Basically, EON / MGM / Universal have a nightmare on their hands. Shelving the movie for 18 months is not viable. They need a creative solution. Limited / short theatrical release in "safe" territories and cutting it under 2 hours for China, followed by a big Home Video / Streaming launch a couple of months later.
Think about it...they won't even be able to hold a PREMIERE!!!!!!!! Like I said, it's a nightmare!
MGM needs $650 millions to just break even with this one. Production budget is $250 millions plus they already lost 30 for wasted marketing.
If a November marketing strategy is to be implemented, a decision needs to be made soon.
It also reports that the Spanish box office is currently down 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Same for the French box office being down 65% from July 2019.
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/santiago-segura-father-there-is-only-one-2-moved-up-spain-1234714394/
Even if these numbers continue to increase in the near future, is this really a situation where big-budget films can be released?
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/heat-vision/bill-ted-face-music-hit-vod-cinemas-simultaneously-1304065
BoxOffice is 90% down, BECAUSE there is no TENET, MULAN, WONDER WOMAN, BOND etc. - if those were playing in cinemas now it would not be 90% down.
Cinemas only have some new arthouse flicks and old movies to play. In order to get the people back into the theatres they need those big budget Hollywood movies.
The box office numbers will not go up without those movies.
So if there are no big movies coming out in August and September, many theatres in Europe will go bankrupt by October. Remember: many theatre re-opened in May, because they knew, that Tenet, Mulan and Co. would get released in July. But the theatres cannot operate with no new big movies for months and months to come.
1 billion likely not - my point is that it isn't really a possibility anyway if it went day and date globally later. Nothing is gonna earn a billion globally until this time next year at the earliest....
One option for EON. Another is treat it like a BIG FIGHT or major sports event on Home Box Home. Charge a premium - a family ticket £30.00-£40.00 per household (make it a big event with marketing), even with an estimated 10 million homes worldwide booking = £300 Million opening weekend!
Then 1 months later half price £20 - VOD!
Then 2 months later...home video / Blu Ray, 4K. Standard Streaming, etc.
This is the kind of creative, out of the box thinking EON need to do.