NO TIME TO DIE (2021) - Critical Reaction and Box Office Performance

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Comments

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    This latest article from Variety claims that only 20% of the movie theaters around the world are currently open (but has been gradually increasing in recent weeks).

    It also reports that the Spanish box office is currently down 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Same for the French box office being down 65% from July 2019.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/santiago-segura-father-there-is-only-one-2-moved-up-spain-1234714394/

    Even if these numbers continue to increase in the near future, is this really a situation where big-budget films can be released?

    BoxOffice is 90% down, BECAUSE there is no TENET, MULAN, WONDER WOMAN, BOND etc. - if those were playing in cinemas now it would not be 90% down.
    Cinemas only have some new arthouse flicks and old movies to play. In order to get the people back into the theatres they need those big budget Hollywood movies.

    The box office numbers will not go up without those movies.

    So if there are no big movies coming out in August and September, many theatres in Europe will go bankrupt by October. Remember: many theatre re-opened in May, because they knew, that Tenet, Mulan and Co. would get released in July. But the theatres cannot operate with no new big movies for months and months to come.

    Big budget Hollywood movies won't be coming out if only 80% of theaters world-wide are still closed. And those 80% won't reopen until major releases happen. So we are currently in a situation with zero solution. At one point we will all have to admit that 2020 is a lost year, and no US blockbusters will be released until 2021.
  • Posts: 631
    One idea which is completely out of the box is to re-edit the film so it’s two or three much shorter films, and release them a month or so apart. NTTD episode 1 etc.

    If a cinema can only hold, for sake of argument, a third of its normal audience, then it needs to have three times as many showings. So it can either show the film at three times normal speed (72 frames per second!!) or the film itself is re-edited so it’s only a third of its length.

    Instead of showing a single three hour film, it shows the film in three parts. Like an old Republic serial. That would get more people in, overall.

    Yes I know this would destroy the artistic vision etc etc but I’m booting it out there as an idea. Desperate measures for desperate times, and all that.
  • Posts: 3,164
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    This latest article from Variety claims that only 20% of the movie theaters around the world are currently open (but has been gradually increasing in recent weeks).

    It also reports that the Spanish box office is currently down 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Same for the French box office being down 65% from July 2019.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/santiago-segura-father-there-is-only-one-2-moved-up-spain-1234714394/

    Even if these numbers continue to increase in the near future, is this really a situation where big-budget films can be released?

    BoxOffice is 90% down, BECAUSE there is no TENET, MULAN, WONDER WOMAN, BOND etc. - if those were playing in cinemas now it would not be 90% down.
    Cinemas only have some new arthouse flicks and old movies to play. In order to get the people back into the theatres they need those big budget Hollywood movies.

    The box office numbers will not go up without those movies.

    So if there are no big movies coming out in August and September, many theatres in Europe will go bankrupt by October. Remember: many theatre re-opened in May, because they knew, that Tenet, Mulan and Co. would get released in July. But the theatres cannot operate with no new big movies for months and months to come.

    Big budget Hollywood movies won't be coming out if only 80% of theaters world-wide are still closed. And those 80% won't reopen until major releases happen. So we are currently in a situation with zero solution. At one point we will all have to admit that 2020 is a lost year, and no US blockbusters will be released until 2021.

    On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.
  • On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.
    At the moment this is probably the most realistic option.
  • Posts: 3,164
    On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.
    At the moment this is probably the most realistic option.

    Currently, the two most intransigent issues at the core of all the discussions at the moment is 1. the theatrical window and 2. the 'US-first' mentality.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,216
    antovolk wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    This latest article from Variety claims that only 20% of the movie theaters around the world are currently open (but has been gradually increasing in recent weeks).

    It also reports that the Spanish box office is currently down 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Same for the French box office being down 65% from July 2019.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/santiago-segura-father-there-is-only-one-2-moved-up-spain-1234714394/

    Even if these numbers continue to increase in the near future, is this really a situation where big-budget films can be released?

    BoxOffice is 90% down, BECAUSE there is no TENET, MULAN, WONDER WOMAN, BOND etc. - if those were playing in cinemas now it would not be 90% down.
    Cinemas only have some new arthouse flicks and old movies to play. In order to get the people back into the theatres they need those big budget Hollywood movies.

    The box office numbers will not go up without those movies.

    So if there are no big movies coming out in August and September, many theatres in Europe will go bankrupt by October. Remember: many theatre re-opened in May, because they knew, that Tenet, Mulan and Co. would get released in July. But the theatres cannot operate with no new big movies for months and months to come.

    Big budget Hollywood movies won't be coming out if only 80% of theaters world-wide are still closed. And those 80% won't reopen until major releases happen. So we are currently in a situation with zero solution. At one point we will all have to admit that 2020 is a lost year, and no US blockbusters will be released until 2021.

    On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.

    Have they actually decided on a pattern of release for it since they released their statement (admittedly that was the last thing I read on that film)? It will still be pushed to the limit to minimise the gaps between releases in different territories, surely?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Variety had an article they published a few hours before they broke the news about the third delay for Tenet which stated:

    One source in close contact with the studios tells Variety that if Warner Bros. and Disney were facing a scenario in which Europe and Asia open first with “Tenet” and “Mulan” followed by the U.S. a couple of weeks later, “they’d do it every day of the week.” “The problem is they don’t know when the U.S. market is going to open up, and they’re not comfortable going longer than two weeks due to piracy.”

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-global-box-office-international-exhibitors-forgotten-1234710870/

    Does this two-weeks gap still apply to the staggered-release strategy that has since been talked about?

    If so, I don't know how a staggered release is possible, as August is about to be the worst month of the pandemic for the US. And by September, we would be getting close to a second world-wide wave of the pandemic. Which would not only render a domestic release impossible, but it is likely that foreign markets would start to close down again if a second wave were to happen. What would be the solution then? Would studios really start considering dumping NTTD, Tenet, Black Widow, Wonder Woman, Top Gun, Dune straight on VOD? Because if we reach this point, it will become clear that the pandemic will not be going away anywhere near as fast as people predicted.
  • RedNineRedNine Poland
    Posts: 71
    One idea which is completely out of the box is to re-edit the film so it’s two or three much shorter films, and release them a month or so apart. NTTD episode 1 etc.

    If a cinema can only hold, for sake of argument, a third of its normal audience, then it needs to have three times as many showings. So it can either show the film at three times normal speed (72 frames per second!!) or the film itself is re-edited so it’s only a third of its length.

    Instead of showing a single three hour film, it shows the film in three parts. Like an old Republic serial. That would get more people in, overall.

    Yes I know this would destroy the artistic vision etc etc but I’m booting it out there as an idea. Desperate measures for desperate times, and all that.

    No need for that. If you have one new premiere a month (or few months now it seems) you can just play the movie in multiple rooms at the same time or starting every 30 minutes.

  • Posts: 3,164
    antovolk wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    This latest article from Variety claims that only 20% of the movie theaters around the world are currently open (but has been gradually increasing in recent weeks).

    It also reports that the Spanish box office is currently down 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Same for the French box office being down 65% from July 2019.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/santiago-segura-father-there-is-only-one-2-moved-up-spain-1234714394/

    Even if these numbers continue to increase in the near future, is this really a situation where big-budget films can be released?

    BoxOffice is 90% down, BECAUSE there is no TENET, MULAN, WONDER WOMAN, BOND etc. - if those were playing in cinemas now it would not be 90% down.
    Cinemas only have some new arthouse flicks and old movies to play. In order to get the people back into the theatres they need those big budget Hollywood movies.

    The box office numbers will not go up without those movies.

    So if there are no big movies coming out in August and September, many theatres in Europe will go bankrupt by October. Remember: many theatre re-opened in May, because they knew, that Tenet, Mulan and Co. would get released in July. But the theatres cannot operate with no new big movies for months and months to come.

    Big budget Hollywood movies won't be coming out if only 80% of theaters world-wide are still closed. And those 80% won't reopen until major releases happen. So we are currently in a situation with zero solution. At one point we will all have to admit that 2020 is a lost year, and no US blockbusters will be released until 2021.

    On the other hand there's the Tenet strategy which is where you take the hit on piracy/spoilers/staggered word of mouth and just slowly roll it out as the market reopens.

    Have they actually decided on a pattern of release for it since they released their statement (admittedly that was the last thing I read on that film)? It will still be pushed to the limit to minimise the gaps between releases in different territories, surely?

    They haven't announced formally yet but:


    Studio insiders said the espionage epic will go out first overseas, where cinemas have reopened in many European and Asian countries, and have begun to reopen in China.

    Warners isn't yet giving exact dates, but sources elsewhere say the studio hopes to begin opening Tenet in international markets in late August before it arrives in the U.S. in the first part of September, even if only in select cities. They stress the situation is fluid, however.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/tenet-tosses-playbook-staggered-rollout-may-be-new-box-office-normal-1303932?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,216
    Much obliged, @antovolk

    I honestly hope it works out for them.
  • WalecsWalecs On Her Majesty's Secret Service
    Posts: 3,157
    SonofSean wrote: »
    Either way, we're looking at the lowest performing Bond movie of all time. It's just an awful reality of the times we're living in. EON / Universal must be aware of this.

    Is this the sequel of "coronavirus will wipe out 99% of humanity"? :))
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    According to Deadline, Tenet will no longer be the first major release post re-opening.

    To date, Disney hasn’t announced that Mulan would be shifting from its current Aug. 21 release date, and there’s speculation by a number of those in exhibition (and here by AMC) as well as rival studios that the movie won’t necessarily move, rather follow a course where it opens where it can around the country and the world.

    https://deadline.com/2020/07/amc-theatres-new-reopening-date-coronavirus-tenet-1202992874/
  • Disney seems more open to thinking outside the theme park than most other studios. VOD seems a more likely choice for their upcoming releases if need be...
  • Posts: 1,394
    SonofSean wrote: »
    Bill & Ted 3' to hit VOD and select cinemas simultaneously amid ongoing pandemic

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/heat-vision/bill-ted-face-music-hit-vod-cinemas-simultaneously-1304065

    One option for EON. Another is treat it like a BIG FIGHT or major sports event on Home Box Home. Charge a premium - a family ticket £30.00-£40.00 per household (make it a big event with marketing), even with an estimated 10 million homes worldwide booking = £300 Million opening weekend!

    Then 1 months later half price £20 - VOD!

    Then 2 months later...home video / Blu Ray, 4K. Standard Streaming, etc.

    This is the kind of creative, out of the box thinking EON need to do.


    This strategy i like and surely behind the scenes,smarter people than us have already considered it.Definetly no premieres for any big movies though.As much as i find it difficult to feel sympathetic for an actor who got paid 25 million up front for this film,this is hardly the way Daniel Craig wanted his Bond tenure to end.
  • Posts: 625
    It's a myth, that you can make that much money with VOD.
    It will not work.

    They will have to release it in theatres where possible - and then keep it in theatres as long as possible, so it can make money over a long period.
    I wouldn't release it as VOD or Blu-Ray until almost a year later.

    Because the moment it becomes available online, the theatre box office will drop to 0.

    Do it like in the old days. Movies were in the theatres for years, before they were shown on TV or otherwise.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 40,968
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Because the moment it becomes available online, the theatre box office will drop to 0.

    That's not true, either, but you're right in that there's no doubt that the film will absolutely be pirated in large volume and would hurt the overall returns, on top of the fact that families renting the film (say, $15-25 total for four or five people to watch) won't help the returns compared to those same four or five people paying $7-20 each to see it in theaters.
  • Posts: 625
    Creasy47 wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Because the moment it becomes available online, the theatre box office will drop to 0.

    That's not true, either, but you're right in that there's no doubt that the film will absolutely be pirated in large volume and would hurt the overall returns, on top of the fact that families renting the film (say, $15-25 total for four or five people to watch) won't help the returns compared to those same four or five people paying $7-20 each to see it in theaters.

    It would be interesting to see an official VOD Box Office chart every week - like there is for theatres.
    Movies with a $200 mio+ budget and another $100 mio marketing costs will need to make at least $700 million to get even. Only with VOD they will never get $700 million.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,716
    A Quiet Place 2 and Top Gun: Maverick delayed to April 2021 and July 2021, respectively.

    https://deadline.com/2020/07/quiet-place-2-top-gun-2-moving-to-2021-1202993889/

    ----

    Without Remorse has been sold to Amazon for a straight to VOD release.

    The film was due for a wide theatrical release in February 2021.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/michael-b-jordan-without-remorse-amazon-1234714715/

    ----

    Antlers delayed to February 2021.
    The French Dispatch has been delayed indefinitely.
    Ridley Scott's The Last Duel delayed to October 2021.
  • Posts: 631
    RedNine wrote: »
    One idea which is completely out of the box is to re-edit the film so it’s two or three much shorter films, and release them a month or so apart. NTTD episode 1 etc.

    If a cinema can only hold, for sake of argument, a third of its normal audience, then it needs to have three times as many showings. So it can either show the film at three times normal speed (72 frames per second!!) or the film itself is re-edited so it’s only a third of its length.

    Instead of showing a single three hour film, it shows the film in three parts. Like an old Republic serial. That would get more people in, overall.

    Yes I know this would destroy the artistic vision etc etc but I’m booting it out there as an idea. Desperate measures for desperate times, and all that.

    No need for that. If you have one new premiere a month (or few months now it seems) you can just play the movie in multiple rooms at the same time or starting every 30 minutes.

    Fair enough.

    This might be a solution to the blockbuster problem, however.

    Instead of making a single blockbuster that needs to earn a rather unlikely billion dollars, you make three much shorter films back to back that each needs to earn back only $300 million or so, and you release them in whatever cinemas are available at the time.

    Then for the home media release you re-edit them back into a single blockbuster movie.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    Cinemas in the Chinese city of Dalian have shut down only days after reopening due to a Covid-19 cluster.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/dalian-china-coronavirus-cinemas-closed-again-1234715423/
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 2,436
    SonofSean wrote: »
    SonofSean wrote: »
    Assuming EON takes a 'staggered rollout' strategy in November in markets that are open, how much can NTTD realistically do at the box office?

    It will be a low box-office. If it creeps anywhere near $300 million I'd be amazed.
    Any film released in the next 12 months will be looking at very poor numbers.
    They will either delay again until Summer 2021, or Christmas 2021 (but there's no guarantee things will be better even then without a vaccine - and a lot of movie theatres are facing bankruptcy) or they have limited theatrical release with a quick Home Video / Streaming release a couple of months later.

    Either way, we're looking at the lowest performing Bond movie of all time. It's just an awful reality of the times we're living in. EON / Universal must be aware of this.



    $300m in gross not net, would still be more successful than LTK.

    LTK didn't cost $250 million to make. That's the estimate of what NTTD cost (and that's without marketing!). LTK only cost a fraction of that ($30 million) and saw a decent profit of $150 million. So there is no comparison to make.

    Basically, EON / MGM / Universal have a nightmare on their hands. Shelving the movie for 18 months is not viable. They need a creative solution. Limited / short theatrical release in "safe" territories and cutting it under 2 hours for China, followed by a big Home Video / Streaming launch a couple of months later.

    Think about it...they won't even be able to hold a PREMIERE!!!!!!!! Like I said, it's a nightmare!



    That's why I said GROSS not NET! If I make a film for $1 and it takes $999,999,999 at the box office it would be a bigger profit than a film that take over a billion, but in terms of gross and in the table of best selling films of all time (IN GROSS) would not top the chart.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    Handler says that this would mean that even under an overseas-first release model, a major blockbuster would have to come out in the U.S. no later than three weeks afterwards.

    https://www.thewrap.com/summer-blockbuster-season-is-lost-what-about-the-rest-of-2020/

    So I guess this pretty much confirms a staggered release is impossible to happen for the foreseeable future.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    STX has delayed the US release of Greenland from August 14th to September 25th.
  • imranbecksimranbecks Singapore
    Posts: 984
    I fear the virus would've caught up to me or anyone of us by the time they release NTTD if they keep delaying it any further. And this is provided we survive it if we do get it. Makes me wonder if we'll ever get to see the movie. With the huge number of deaths worldwide, I won't be surprised if there were Bond fans who wanted to see the movie but have died from the coronavirus. Which is why I keep saying they should not delay it anymore and just release it in November as planned. On demand or in cinemas. Heck, do it both. As for pushing it to 2021, who is to say things will get better in or around mid-2021 in the first place? At this point it's just wishful thinking that it would get better. At the current rate, I'm very doubtful.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    Cases are starting to surge all around the globe again, and not in the USA/Brazil/India. 2020 cinema releases are looking more and more unlikely.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,216
    They are the most likely. I will still be very surprised if it actually happens, though.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716

    This article is from Wednesday. The situation for a staggered release is already looking much more unlikely than it was 4 days ago. It is very possible that WB botched up their chance of a staggered release before even confirming their intentions. And NTTD being 3.5 months away, their release date is becoming very problematic if the world-wide Covid-19 surges don't get under control quickly.
  • I know this article is from Wednesday, thank you. I still think it's the most likely scenario at the moment - you would probably agree with me in that no other suggestions seem to be feasible.
  • And no, waiting for a vaccine (in the words of Simon Pegg in Shaun of the Dead "wait for all of this to blow over") isn't a feasible option either.
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