Coronavirus Discussion

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  • 4EverBonded4EverBonded the Ballrooms of Mars
    Posts: 12,480
    New York City more than 5,000 cases of coronavirus.
    Numbers keep doubling ... I think we (U.S.) is only a week or so behind Italy; is that correct?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,718
    New York City more than 5,000 cases of coronavirus.
    Numbers keep doubling ... I think we (U.S.) is only a week or so behind Italy; is that correct?

    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    Spain, Iran, Italy and China are the only countries above 1,000 deaths. China and Italy are the only countries above 3,000 deaths, and Italy the only one above 4,000 deaths.
  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Posts: 7,554
    If it would help the situation, the entire developed world should all just be sheltering-in-place.
  • OctopussyOctopussy Piz Gloria, Schilthorn, Switzerland.
    Posts: 1,081
    10,000 people down at Bondi Beach yesterday in Sydney. Amazing how stupid people can be!
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    edited March 2020 Posts: 2,541
    I went out to buy some groceries & stuffs, had to take metro as well and my god haven't seen such empty streets in the city in my entire life.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    TripAces wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    I can't imagine. I live in Phoenix, AZ. Our restrictions are less severe at the moment: all public places are closed, except for public parks, and most restaurants still have take-out available. In my neighborhood, people are taking this $#!t seriously.

    That's good. It could be hard to accept, lot of people still haven't understand it even here in Milan, but the only way to stop the virus spreading is staying home. On the other hand, speaking about myself, the idea of not seeing anyone for at least another 6 weeks (it's not official yet but it will be) is devastating but I must accept it... ah and tomorrow the army will be officially in the streets of Milan making sure everyone stays home.
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    matt_u wrote: »
    TripAces wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    I can't imagine. I live in Phoenix, AZ. Our restrictions are less severe at the moment: all public places are closed, except for public parks, and most restaurants still have take-out available. In my neighborhood, people are taking this $#!t seriously.

    That's good. It could be hard to accept, lot of people still haven't understand it even here in Milan, but the only way to stop the virus spreading is staying home. On the other hand, speaking about myself, the idea of not seeing anyone for at least another 6 weeks (it's not official yet but it will be) is devastating but I must accept it... ah and tomorrow the army will be officially in the streets of Milan making sure everyone stays home.

    It's such a sad state that army have to intervene for people to stay at home.
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    I went out to buy some groceries & stuffs, had to take metro as well and my god haven't seen such empty streets in the city in my entire life.

    I love how clean the streets are, and how fresh the air is. It s wonderful.
  • BennyBenny Shaken not stirredAdministrator, Moderator
    Posts: 15,138
    Whilst watching the AFL (Australian Football League) earlier, it was noted by the commentators that FOX Sports 1 in the USA was airing the game live. Apparently many Americans were watching as it's one of the only live sporting events still going on.
    Our football season is going ahead in empty stadiums for the time being.
    The boost too moral for everyone in Australia has been great. For those of us that like footy, it's given us a little ray of sunshine, in an other bleak outlook.
    Maybe not for all Australians, but for many that I've spoken too, it's been very positive that AFL has proceeded.
  • Posts: 631
    matt_u wrote: »
    the only way to stop the virus spreading is staying home.

    This. Quarantine is the only surefire way to terminate the spread of a virus. We’ve known this since at least the Middle Ages, probably longer.

    A virus particle only lives a few days. If the human that is carrying the virus is isolated for a few weeks, then all the virus particles they could have passed on to others are dead. It’s pure Darwinism, really. We talk about masks and goggles and biohazard suits and stuff but the best way is simply not to come into contact with any other human being anyway.

    What we can do in the 21st century, which earlier centuries could not do so easily, is trace people’s movements. This means we know who to quarantine. We test, quarantine, track where they’ve been and who they’ve met, then we test those other people, quarantine again, track again, test, quarantine, track, test, quarantine, track. An absolute onslaught on the virus.

    Some governments have surrendered the fight before it’s even beginning. So they are not testing or tracking on anything like the scale that’s required.

    This seems to me like giving up all the advantages which living in the 21st century has given us. Instead we are behaving like medieval people (“do you have symptoms? Go into quarantine. No symptoms? Walk around!”).



  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,718
    Spain has recorded a massive 324 deaths in the past 24 hours. They are now the 2nd country, after Italy, to have over 300 deaths in a single day. As a reminder: once Italy reached this death-toll threshold on March 15th (368 deaths), it took then 3 days to reach over 400 deaths per day (475 on March 18th), and on March 20th they recorded 627 deaths. Italy had 1,809 deaths on March 15th, now they have 4,032 fatalities. Spain is currently at 1,326 fatalities. Based on such exponential rate, Spain will overtake China's death-toll by March 26th, and should cross 4,000 deaths by March 27th.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,187
    A virus particle only lives a few days. If the human that is carrying the virus is isolated for a few weeks, then all the virus particles they could have passed on to others are dead. It’s pure Darwinism, really. We talk about masks and goggles and biohazard suits and stuff but the best way is simply not to come into contact with any other human being anyway.

    Technically, a virus cannot die since it's not really alive either; it's merely a wee bit of genetic material wrapped up in proteins. Most viruses are tough to destroy too; many can survive for a long time well below the freezing point of water or even in pretty nasty chemicals. Heating them above 70 °C (158 °F) causes denaturation of the proteins and will render the virus "dead", whatever that means. Also, once activated, viruses have a limited amount of time to "survive" without a host. Their evolution is, however, not exactly Darwinian in the usual sense of the word, though it's fair to state things that way.
    This seems to me like giving up all the advantages which living in the 21st century has given us. Instead we are behaving like medieval people (“do you have symptoms? Go into quarantine. No symptoms? Walk around!”).

    I don't quite agree with that. We are not giving up the advantages of the 21st century; we're using them at full force. The most sophisticated labs in the world, using the fastest computers in the world, are working day and night to develop chemicals that might prove effective in the battle against COVID-19. Direct communications between labs worldwide, and the constant exchange of information, enabled by all that we have in the IT department, will prove very beneficial. The Internet, meanwhile, is giving many people across the globe constant access to updates. On the psychological side of things, the perks of modern technology include digitalized social interaction, the ability to still visit shops (online), and more.

    If, however, you are making a statement about how our LEADERS are dealing with the matter, then, @IGotABrudder, I very much agree with you. Suddenly, "let's build a wall" and "Brexit now!" seem like a waste of time, money and possibly more. A little bugger, smaller than what a traditional light microscope can detect, is giving all of these things the finger.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 1,661
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,188
    I don’t think it’s an exaggeration, due to how contagious it is.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,718
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! You can say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" or you can say the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it."

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Or you can pick your narrative based on which thread you post in.
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    California is in total lockdown (!) so that means the entire west coast tv/film industry is on hold. People can't go out to see the films even if they were in the cinemas! This has never happened before?! Incredible.

    The studios may have to bite the bullet and release on streaming and hope they can recoup some of the production budget, break even. I've no idea if big budget films can make millions via streaming and make sizeable profit, seems unlikely, but who knows, they may have no other choice but release online and hope for the best.

    Could No Time To Die be the first James Bond film not to get a theatrical worldwide release? It's looking more and more possible. With California joining other countries on full lockdown it appears we're in for the long haul. :-S

    This post seems like the doomsaying you complained about in your first post.
  • Posts: 623
    I don't think it's about being "foolish" or apologising. The threads I've read on here are quite scary, but they're things that need to be said, because we need to take this seclusion seriously.
    I'll tell you one thing, I was all for going down the pub and having a 'last pint' last night, but some of the well-considered responses on this thread made me stay in.
    The reason for lockdown is to keep the numbers as low as possible. Just because the numbers are comparatively low, in ratio to the number of people in the word, doesn't mean we're over-reacting by being careful.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,718
    There are currently 11,889 fatalities from the coronavirus worldwide. 1 week ago, on March 14th, there were 5,833 deaths. On March 7th, 3,599 deaths. 2,977 on February 29th. 2,460 on February 22nd.

    Comparing the past 4 weeks:

    Feb 22nd to Feb 29th: +517 deaths.
    Feb 29th to March 7th: +622 deaths.
    March 7th to March 14th: +2,234 deaths.
    March 14th to March 21st: +6,056 deaths.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,187
    That's what exponential growth means.
    As more and more countries are in virtual lockdown, it's possible to see a flattening of the curve in some countries next week.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,188
    An uninsured COVID-19 patient just got her medical bill: $34,927.43.

    https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/

    When Danni Askini started feeling chest pain, shortness of breath and a migraine all at once on a Saturday in late February, she called the oncologist who had been treating her lymphoma. Her doctor thought she might be reacting poorly to a new medication, so she sent Askini to a Boston-area emergency room. There, doctors told her it was likely pneumonia and sent her home.

    Over the next several days, Askini saw her temperature spike and drop dangerously, and she developed a cough that gurgled because of all the liquid in her lungs. After two more trips to the ER that week, Askini was given a final test on the seventh day of her illness, and once doctors helped manage her flu and pneumonia symptoms, they again sent her home to recover. She waited another three days for a lab to process her test, and at last she had a diagnosis: COVID-19.

    A few days later, Askini got the bills for her testing and treatment: $34,927.43. “I was pretty sticker-shocked,” she says. “I personally don’t know anybody who has that kind of money.”

    Like 27 million other Americans, Askini was uninsured when she first entered the hospital. She and her husband had been planning to move to Washington, D.C. this month so she could take a new job, but she hadn’t started yet. Now that those plans are on hold, Askini applied for Medicaid and is hoping the program will retroactively cover her bills. If not, she’ll be on the hook.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,187
    That is a shocking fact, @MakeshiftPython!
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    As for today 3095 deaths in the Lombardy region alone... the number of infections in Milano however seems to slow down a bit which is the most important statistic right now, even if it’s too early to believe the curve is really slowing down in the economical capital of the country. If Milano falls it’s gonna be a massacre.

    EDIT: A record breaking 793 deaths in the overall country in the past 24 hours. Shocking.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,718
    793 deaths in Italy today, a new record. They will cross 5,000 deaths by tomorrow, 6,000 on Monday and 7,000 deaths by Tuesday. 2 weeks ago, Italy had 233 deaths.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    edited March 2020 Posts: 8,409
    I think the virus will move onto new areas next, and and Europe will recover like China. Seems like things will be back to normal in a few months.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,718
    Hopefully the virus will move onto new areas next, and and Europe will recover like China. Seems like things will be back to normal in a few months.

    It took China 3 months of total lockdown to stop the virus. Partial lockdowns in Europe started a week ago, in countries where the death-toll is already bigger than the total death count in China from November to March. Things will not get better before next year at the earliest.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 3,327
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Wow. Just wow!

    You think the critical hospital crisis now facing Italy is just a massive overreaction?

    If you also look at the trajectory of where Italy was 14 days ago, and where we are now in comparison, you can see every reason for us to go into lockdown.

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=639962006077&set=a.580028862577&type=3&theater

    This is now 2 days out of date. For the record, we are on the exact same number today as Italy's was for the equivalent day (7th March).

    If we hit Italy's numbers in 10 days, I wonder what your response on here will be then? I hope you hang your head in shame. You've no idea how angry your post has made me feel.

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Wow. Just wow!

    You think the critical hospital crisis now facing Italy is just a massive overreaction?

    Without mentioning that Lombardy has the 2nd best healthcare within the #2 NHS in the world. He will change his mind within the next couple of weeks...

    Shocking that the 68% of today’s deaths in Italy are from Lombardy. This is why is capital to protect Milan.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 3,327
    matt_u wrote: »
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Wow. Just wow!

    You think the critical hospital crisis now facing Italy is just a massive overreaction?

    Without mentioning that Lombardy has the 2nd best healthcare within the #2 NHS in the world. He will change his mind within the next couple of weeks...

    Shocking that the 68% of today’s deaths in Italy are from Lombardy. This is why is capital to protect Milan.

    Forget him changing his mind. This person should be banned on here for such outrageously disgusting comments. I'm tempted to use much stronger language on what I think of this person, but I won't as I'll be banned.
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    edited March 2020 Posts: 6,306
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Please stay home.
  • Posts: 3,327
    echo wrote: »
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    To put some numbers in perspective: Italy's first death from coronavirus occurred on February 21st. 28 days later (today), they have 4,032 deaths. 14 days ago, they were still below 200 deaths (196 deceased on March 6th. 80% of those 4,032 deaths happened in the past 6 days. And at this rate, by next weekend they will most likely be well above 10,000 deaths. As a reminder, the normal flu kills 750 people a month in Italy. Coronavirus is currently killing over 450 people a day in Italy for the past 3 days.

    Spot on on everything you said.

    BTW by the end of April Italy would most likely reach 40.000 deaths linked to coronavirus, based on some latest predictions. Which is insane. For us April will be the toughest month. It's beyond me how it is even possible that in Milan metro and public transports are still working full time. It's unbelievable. Anyway tomorrow will be my 15th day of quarantine without seeing or talking to anyone I know in person.

    There seems to be a lot of doomsaying on this thread. I suppose it's understandable given the grim nature of the virus and how it's spread across the globe. However, I hope those people that are giving future predictions will have the good grace to admit they're wrong if they turn out to be. Predicting x number of deaths within a short space of time is somewhat foolish because no-one truly knows. For example, I doubt anyone would have said "given the source of the outbreak is in China it's very likely Italy will be hit just as bad." No-one could have predicted that so I think it's potentially foolish to make predictions about the mid-to long term impact of coronavirus in the UK.
    2 weeks at most. France and Spain are a bit closer to reaching Italy’s situation than the US. The UK are more or less mirroring the US, so both will likely have their death-toll explode at the same time. And then we have Iran who are letting the virus run rampant in their country because the government believes the virus will disappear naturally at some point.

    I'm fine to say I will apologise for this post if it turns to be ignorant optimism or foolish downplaying of the virus. The actual death rate in the UK is astonishingly small (less than 200 people have died of coronavirus out of population of 66 million) and yes, perhaps that's a naive way to look at coronavirus but I'm going on the current stats, not what will happen in two weeks time, or a month or several months. If the death toll is still low in two weeks - four weeks I hope people on this thread will have the good grace to admit they were wrong in scare mongering. If I am wrong and the stats are way higher, approaching the 700 - 1000 mark I'll apologise.

    I think we are experiencing mass worldwide hysteria and overreaction. Again, I could be completely wrong and ignorant but it's just my gut feeling. Regardless of my or anyone else's gut feeling, the one fact 99 percent of all people are choosing to ignore is the recovery rate massively outweighs the death rate. As of today 21/03/2020:

    Coronavirus cases worldwide: 286,664

    Deaths:11,888

    Recovered: 93,598

    I am prepared to say I believe we may be experiencing the biggest overreaction in world history. I could be outrageously, woefully wrong. I do not regard 11,000 deaths out of seven billion people enough of a reason to lockdown many countries in the world, potentially causing massive economic hardship on millions of people. I think the giveaway is the recovery rate. Far higher than the death rate. Meaning most people won't die from cr meaning there is no reason to impose such draconian measures on millions of people.

    I've also noted not one person on this thread has mentioned the much higher recovery rate! The doomsayers will say "Italy is terrible, 4000 dead, it's going to get much worse for everyone" but someone could easily argue the opposite - "more people worldwide are recovering from cr than dying from it." So which is the truth, the objective reality?

    You can pick your narrative to suit your perception of reality. That is true of almost everything in life. Brexit is terrible vs Brexit is amazing. Coronavirus threatens the world vs flu kills more people. Lockdown is essential vs lockdown will ruin the economy and people's standard of living. You can pick and choose what to believe.


    Your post is dangerous. Please stay home.

    I've already flagged this post to the moderators here. Hopefully they will do something about this absolute cretin.
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