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Do you actually...read my predictions? If 'yes', then you know I think 'Best Actor' and 'Best Director' nods are out of the question. If 'no', then here I go again:
I am quiteee cautious with my prediction. The BAFTA's, I said it on numerous occasions, is NOT the best predictor for the Oscar nom's for 'Skyfall' this year. 'Best Director', 'Best Original Score', 'Best Production Design' and even 'Best Editing' for 'Skyfall' on this year's BAFTA list of nominations......I find that way too much BAFTA-glory if you ask me. And 'Skyfall' only got nominated in these categories because of the 'Britishness'. In my opinion there are way better movies in these categories.
But still, and that is something I have said before as well, 'Skyfall' gets the most serious Oscar buzz ever in the history of Bond. 'Casino Royale' was ignored completely, but also because Sony was stupid enough to not heavily promote the film for 'Your Consideration' audiences. With 'Skyfall' that's completely different. Even the Academy this year puts 'Skyfall' as centerpiece event of their Oscar-show. This is extra attention/promotion, even for the people voting in the various Oscar categories.
Also, for a Bond film, nominations in the Screen Actors Guild Awards (1 nomination, Javier Bardem), the Critics Choice Awards (4 nominations, Judi Dench, Javier Bardem, Roger Deakins, Adele), the Golden Globes (1 nomination), the Producers Guild Awards (1 nomination, Barbara Broccoli & Michael Wilson), the LA Film Critics Awards (1 WIN for Roger Deakins) and the Las Vegas Film Critics Awards (1 WIN for Adele) are truly unique. 'Casino Royale' could not hit that score off. And the nominations/wins in these awards are much better predictors for the Oscars than the BAFTA's if you ask me.
Now about the categories. For God sake, let's show some respect for the various categories in the awards. Especially the technical awards, which we call 'minor' in a belittling way. I think 'Best Cinematography', 'Best Sound' (Mixed & Edited), 'Best Original Song' are truly wunderful categories. The amount of work the crew did to eventually get these nominations should be treated with much more respect on here. For me, a technical Oscar for a Bond film feels more or less the same like winning a 'Best Picture' Oscar for a movie like 'American Beauty'.
Back to the predictions. IndieWire goes actually a bit further for their predictions for tomorrow's Oscar nominations. SIX in total, plus an option to even SEVEN or EIGHT nominations: http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-predictions-for-the-most-unpredictable-oscar-nominations-in-year?page=1#articleHeaderPanel
cinematography
best supporting actor
best supporting actress
best original song
Possible for:
best picture (especially since it went to between 5 and 10)
I personally think it will win for cinematography, but that is the only one I am willing to bet on. Bardem is a close second. The academy is sentimental and therefore I think Judi will be nominated. I'd be really happy if she won. (I am sitting here trying to think of her competition ...)
I would LOVE for Craig to be nominated as best actor not just for the Oscars but for many awards. As we all like to give our opinions, please note this is all my personal opinion and guesses. For Craig's performance as Bond, I do think it is Oscar worthy, Golden Globe worthy. I feel he was as good in Skyfall as in Casino Royale, I really do - and that is to say very good acting indeed, bringing something to that role that is special. But to nominate a Bond actor is a huge leap most awards, maybe even especially the Oscars, won't take. Just my guess.
I presume you are talking nominations here rather than wins?
Theres only song and cinematography I am pretty much certain are nailed on but as you say a few 'boring' categories like sound and editing are likely.
Supporting actor and actress I would say are rather long shots and even if they get nominated not a sniff of winning as they arent going to give a foreigner another Oscar for another villainous turn and Judi is there every year so they are pretty bored of her. Director and screenplay - no chance.
Picture - its possible if as you say only 5% is required but unlikely it will get even that.
Stuff like production design and score have as good a chance as anyone of getting a nomination.
As for actual wins? Song and cinematography and perhaps a few of the technical ones although for me none of these are really indicative of the quality of the film. DAD could easily have won for song (if it hadnt been shite), sound and editing say but it wouldnt stop it being a shambles. These technical ones are a nice little bonus but hardly a good film make. Look at TB - picked up an Oscar but its extremely average in the departments that matter.
Nonetheless I will of course be cheering for bond come Oscar night (assuming it actually gets any nominations of course!).
Duhh!! That's what we are discussing no :-)? Let's talk about the winning chances once the nominations are in. Actually winning it is a different story. So far I have only been talking about 'Skyfall' actually being nominated. And an Oscar Nomination for an action blockbuster has a similar 'promotion weight' to the actual Oscar Win for a original drama, like 'Crash' or 'American Beauty'. Do not forget: The last time a Bond film got nominated for an Oscar was a whopping 31 years (!!) ago, with 'For Your Eyes Only' (1981).
Ah!! Interesting ;-). Yes, I do think Claudio Miranda's cinematography for 'Life Of Pi' is Roger Deakins biggest competitor in the same category. But eventually I think Roger Deakins will win. Roger has been nominated so many times and also lost so many times. Combined with the Bond buzz helping 'Skyfall' to become a Billion Dollar Bond, it will be helping Roger more than Claudio. But yes, exciting this category will be next month ;-)!
Let's see what happens in the Oscar nominations tomorrow, I'm not getting my hopes very high but we might very well be surprised (I would love to).
Remember we only need four nominations - and two wins - for an all round new record.
5:30 a.m. PST
Seconded. Clearly BAFTA heard something I didn't.
That said, I do realistically expect 4 nominations - Cinematography, Song, Sound Effects Editing and Sound Mixing. Anything else would be a bit of a surprise, but a welcome one.
I like where your heads are at, gents. B-)
I don't even want to consider it as a lock, but I'm going to be upset if Deakins doesn't win for Best Cinematography; I just didn't feel like the man's work was upstaged in any other movie from 2012.
That's what my idea is as well! I mean really, I don't have very high expectations out of the blue. I have realistic expectations. And whatever nomination we get, I keep staying positive and grateful for every single nomination we get. So.....why the hell should I expect disappointment then if I am already prepared for what will come.
It's quite a nonsense to say "The lesser you expect, the bigger the outcome will be". It will feel bigger then yes. But I base my expectations on realism, not on emotional inuendo.
I actually agree with all of this post. :) I think cinematography is almost a lock, as is Best Song. Bardem should get nominated but won't win. Same with Judi Dench.
Craig will win a major award in the future, but it won't be for Bond. I just don't think the Academy gives that role any credit for depth or talent. I'm not disappointed, because I don't expect it. In fact, I don't really expect anything beyond Cinematography and Song. :) Anything above that is icing.
I know, right?! I like where your head is at too.
The reason I'm amazed with so many nominations. And the fact this recognition is happening now, in the 50th anniversary, just make the whole thing even more impressive. And exciting. :((
I don't think anyody is expecting the same amount of awards for Oscars then for Baftas. Not even me. But I do have hope for BP still for some reason and be it only to show the Baftas, how wrong it was to not nominate the film. I think, there is a certain competition between the two, even tough Oscar is the bigger one. I would never expect them to give DC a nod as I and many others in the industry thought, the Baftas would and should. No way...
*SIGH*
Just because Skyfall didn't get the nominations you wanted doesn't make the BAFTAs wrong. Seriously, just be happy with the 8 awesome nods we already have! You act like it's Best Picture or nothing, when the other awards are just as special.
Indeed.
The quality of Nolans Batman films has forced EON to up their game so that Bond is now on a par with those. But how many nominations are we expecting for TDKR? They are both just popcorn at the end of the day. Good popcorn - Butterkist toffee say not the extortianate, flavourless crap they serve up at the cinema - but popcorn nonetheless.
The likes of Daniel Day Lewis operate on a completely different level to films like SF and TDKR.
I dont think we'll ever convince the Fraulein that a massive injustice hasnt befallen SF.
Who are these people in 'in the industry' Germanlady? The usual talking head non-entities who appear with their pre scripted drivel on Jimmy Carrs 100 Greatest Sitcoms?
The film correspondent for the Evening Standard or a bloke who writes for Empire dont really count I'm afraid.
I think you'll find that by definition BAFTA members are in the industry (ie: in the sense of actually being filmmakers rather than people who just spout their views on Twitter) and those people dont think SF is worthy of BP or Dan worthy of BA alas no matter what your 'industry' moles might think.
If SF can take more than 2 BAFTAs of any flavour and also nick an Oscar (or maybe two?) for best song or best cinematography I'll be made up.
No, we won't agree on it, because whatever you say means as little to me what I say to you, because I see it differently. But lets leave it at that now and just accept, that we won't agree.
BTW - for honoring 50 years of Bond at the National Board of Review Awards, Babs and Daniel were in attendence to claim the William K. Everson Film History Award: 50 Years of Bond Films which included, of course, the producer.
THR's awards analyst believes the leaderboard will be topped by "Lincoln" (14), "Les Mis" (10), "Life of Pi" and "Skyfall" (8) and "Argo" and "Silver Linings" (6).
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-scotts-final-picks-409651