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It has surpassed The Amazing Spider Man to now.
Can Skyfall gross the total of Quantum of Solace and Casino Royale combined?
In the UK - Needs 106m pounds - I would say yes that will happen - Skyfall will make enough over the Christmas and New Year season to get there.
In USA - Needs $336m - I would say that could happen - $221m now, $253m by next Sunday, $276m the following Sunday, $310m by new year, another $15m next year - leaves it about $10m short, so quite possible - any awards season buzz would help.
Worldwide - Needs $1.185b - I would say that could happen, but would be difficult - another $100m out of USA, another $30m UK, $150m or so out of other existing markets, needs at least another $100m out of China, so I think it is achievable, but probably not going to get there.
There again TDK was undoubtedly boosted by Heath Ledgers death and despite being a weaker film and not benefitting from such a publicity boost TDKR did better business (although what's the inflation adjusted difference between the two) so who knows as long Bond 24 is of a similar quality to SF.
I would be surprised if the studio went down the 3D route for Bond but if they want to boost the takings a bit more lets have some scenes filmed in IMAX to increase IMAX ticket sales.
Elsewhere, here's what's still to come form new territories:
Australia ~$20m ($12m may already have been counted in this weekend's International)
New Zealand ~$4m
Japan ~$20m
China ~$20m (based on QUANTUM.....)
China is the real curve ball. SKYFALL should have opened a lot wider in the country that QUANTUM did 4 years ago, due to the increasing acceptance of Western films. But its delay until February 2013 will hurt it as it's likely to have been widely pirated in Asia by then, and DVD/Blu-Ray sales just a month away.
"Titanic 3D", "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" and "Avatar" all scooped around $150m in China!
My prediction:
$ 45.0 million China (prediction, China heavily featured in the film, but you are right as well JamesPage. Won't do the amounts 'M:I-GP' did in China, but $20m is just unrealistically low)
$ 48.0 million Australia (prediction in the end, always higher than QOS)
$ 6.0 million New Zealand (prediction in the end, always higher than QOS)
$ 13.0 million South Africa (prediction in the end, always higher than QOS)
$ 37.0 million Japan (prediction, less than 'M:I - GP' by the way)
$149.0 million TOTAL (for the above countries)
$790.1 million TOTAL (current worldwide total, excl. above countries)
$939.1 million TOTAL, without the money that will come in the upcoming weeks in the USA and all other countries outside USA, excluding China, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Japan.
Conclusion: Already at this point.....'Skyfall' is one hell of a bomb in Bond land :-). This is a Bond record for the history books. Biggest, most succesful Bond films of all time: 'Thunderball', 'Goldfinger' and indeed now 'Skyfall'.
It's truly unique that we Bond fans can witness something that Bond fans back in 1964/1965 witnessed with 'Goldfinger' and 'Thunderball'.
It is still up in the air. Bond 24 will have to have a smaller budget at this point. Skyfall may be the last Bond movie we see if things keep going at this rate.
Yea, they'll have to try and grab someone big to headline the film, too. I don't think anyone had heard of this Javier Bardem kid before, and for good reason!
:-?
Thanks for your reply James and thank you to all others who replied to my post.
The new releases next week won't do too well. As for dropping screens in USA. Yes, but not greatly while Skyfall is still performing well. - It could be the number one movie again next weekend in USA - why are they going to slash Skyfall screens over other movies that are making a fraction of the money and have been around longer? Either way it will be around $250m USA by next Sunday, which means $300m is more than possible. It is locked.
Not sure why you would only expect another $20m from Oz - barely more than another 1.5 times its opening. It should play well through the Christmas period. And as for China, the delay of several months means that there is plenty of time to execute the most effective marketing campaign that will capitalize on the movie's success and of course its locations in China. The Chinese market has expanded massively in the last few years and Quantum of Solace isn't a good comparable. Look at Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol - It made $100m in China, whereas Mission Impossible 3 made only $10m.
Why to re-think? I think the success of 'Skyfall' only confirms/affirms that the Bond producers have got the perfect mix now for a good Bond film! Now it's only necessary to re-apply it for Bond 24:
--> Bring back another dreamcast of actors. After the box office success of 'Skyfall', it will get easier to get famous actors on board. Names like Christoph Waltz or Anthony Hopkins? Let's see.
--> Bring back an almost unchanged production crew. Invite Sam Mendes, Roger Deakins, Dennis Gassner, Thomas Newman John Logan and some actors for a big brainstorm session. It's for free, no obligations, and it will get easier to bring these men on board as well.
--> Daniel Craig is perhaps the first Bond actor who gets so much creative freedom and respect from the Bond producers. Let's keep that into place. Sean Connery would have dreamt of the situation where Daniel Craig is in now.
-->The re-introduction of James Bond (in 'Casino Royale') and Moneypenny, Q and M (in 'Skyfall') paves the way to some other character re-introductions. Apparently, the Bond producers are writing new Bond history, literally, with a new timeline. Keep that spirit alive.
--> And lastly, the Batman franchise, the Jason Bourne franchise are finished now. It automatically offers Bond 24 unique opportunities. The James Bond franchise can be completely in the drivers seat again; the drivers seat of action/spy/thriller movies. Thus becoming the leading action/spy franchise again. Inspiration from other franchises helped Bond, but for Bond 24 the inspiration now truly needs to come from within its own franchise.
It looks like dear @Gustav_Graves can't pick up on our sarcasm, my gents. /:)
I love your enthusiasm but it's naive to assume this is anything like Bondmania. It's not even close to being like it was in 64/65. Bond was a cultural phenomenon. It's doing good B.O. but then what franchise isn't? Potter, POTC, Batman, Transformers, LOTR, have all hit $1bn plus. This is not like 1964/65.
Still, in my lifetime it's the biggest Bond with the biggest buzz surrounding it. Perhaps not Thunderball-like times in terms of mania, craziness. But it certainly reminds me of that.
THE latest Bond instalment has shaken the Australian Box Office, pulling in a massive $12.304 million in its opening weekend.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/skyfall-shakes-the-australian-box-office/story-e6frfku9-1226524450296#ixzz2DJZxuOWF
I probably shouldn't be, and obviously it's not a bad thing. But I just didn't expect it to be as big as it is. The general public have obviously embraced it, and that must be hugely satisfying for all involved.
The only thing to worry about is, how to follow it up?
Bond 24 has some monumental shoes to fill, but as we're going to be looking at Craig's fourth, will it be the TB of today?
As for Skyfall, well, just keep taking in the dollars, and do us Bond fans proud.
Bond is still an event. He's still got massive pulling power. Bond is truly unique in the movie world. I know alot of people I've talked to, who are unaware that I'm a Bond fan, who have been looking forward to see it. With Bond it's just bigger than any other movie franchise, bar non.
http://www.mi6-hq.com/news/index.php?itemid=10638
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/guides/holiday_movie_scorecard_2012/?hub=9
Well, something like that? But I wouldn't worry Benny. 'Skyfall' is now the big formula for success. And to repeat such a success, to think in terms of 'The Dark Knight' vs. it's follow-up 'The Dark Knight Rises', one should focus on the bullet points I have written here before. I didn't catch the sarcasm at first 0BradyM0Bondfanatic7, but I am a bit overexcited as well hehe :-P:
By the way, finally BoxOfficeMojo now also says $900 million is more or less a lock. It also talks about the magical $1 billion figure :-).:
[/quote]
I think one should focus more on the overseas figures from 'The Dark Knight Rises' and 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol' to accurately predict what could happen. 'Quantum Of Solace' was already four years ago and wasn't relying on the bigger buzz surrounding the last two Batman films and the last Mission: Impossible film.
Here are the final figures of 'The Dark Knight Rises' and 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol'. Take into account 'Mission: Impossible' got into cinemas only two months after its original release date in the USA:
'The Dark Knight Rises':
--> $ 052,785,334 -- China
--> $ 044,179,096 -- Australia
--> $ 024,115,087 -- Japan
--> $ 004,646,304 -- New Zealand
--> $ 001,975,303 -- South Africa
TOTAL = $127,701,124
'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol':
--> $ 101,232,739 -- China
--> $ 069,695,185 -- Japan
--> $ 018,954,599 -- Australia
--> $ 002,208,169 -- New Zealand
--> $ 002,168,073 -- South Africa
TOTAL = $194,258,765
Regardless of pirating in China -it did not have a big influence on other blockbuster movies that were delayed by the Chinese government- I think Japan and Australia can counteract a possible lacklustre performance of 'Skyfall' in China.
And while many of the above territories have not yet released their full grosses yet, it is most likely that 'Skyfall' in the end will earn between $120 million and $200 million in the combined markets of China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.
Moreover, new updates about all other markets, for instance in Germany, India, France, Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Brazil, have not been released recently. So you need to have those figures too to accurately predict 'Skyfall's final worldwide gross.
So it's becoming more likely that the magical figure of $1 billion for 'Skyfall' will be reached.
(Just in case. Here the same markets and its figures for 'Quantum Of Solace'. Again, the below figures are not good to compare with what 'Skyfall' will do:
--> $ 021,685,734 -- Japan
--> $ 021,009,412 -- China
--> $ 020,645,336 -- Australia
--> $ 003,015,992 -- New Zealand
--> $ 001,983,685 -- South Africa
TOTAL = $68,340,159)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=skyfallinception.htm