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Yet, I mentioned Il Volo to that extend. And although the songs are entirely different -‘Il Grande Amore’ vs. ‘Lights And Shadows’-, they both share a certain lack of being contemporary enough. Not to mention being memorable enough if the actual singers weren’t performing it. Here is the *LIVE* version of 'Lights And Shadows': http://picosong.com/pgLh/
But let’s have a look at semi final #2 then. And I really start to think that this could be the weakest semi final in years. It could very well be that only 2 or 3 qualifiers from this semi will enter the TOP 10 in the final:
NON-QUALIFIERS:
–> AUSTRIA: Personally I love this gentle singer-songwriter entry. I don’t understand why people compare it with Spain, but that’s beside the point. The problem with this entry is, that it lacks the “oomph” that Douwe Bob had. verdict: NQ
–> MALTA: I’m not going to make any of my comments dirty on this….thing. verdict: NQ
–> RUSSIA: Well, there’s a diplomatic war going on between Russia and Ukraine. Said about all this. But even if Julia can perform via satellite, I then think Russia has already destroyed all its chances. verdict: NQ
–> ISRAEL: It’s a nice pop tune, has a big disco beat. But in that same genre I find Serbia and especially Macedonia way more superior. And this isn’t as fresh, Original and uplifting as Israel 2015. verdict: NQ
–> CROATIA: This country used to be so good in the 1990’s. What happened to them :-(. I feel very sorry about them. verdict: NQ
–> LITHUANIA: Nicely done, it is at least Original. But the song itself doesn’t really go anywhere. It tries to be so alternative, new age and fresh, but fails completely by trying. verdict: NQ
–> SAN MARINO: I think it’s time for new EBU rules to not let certain artists and composers return year-after-year based on some kind of long-term contract, thus leading to huge payslips to Ralph Siegel and Valentina. I am against this. Then be like Monaco and Andorra and don’t join. verdict: NQ
BORDERLINE QUALIFIERS:
–> SWITZERLAND: Nice song…nice enough. But the leadsinger isn’t the best singer. And after 2 mins the song starts to bore me a bit. It slightly has a fanwank status if you ask me. verdict: BORDERLINE (OUT)
–> NORWAY: It’s a real nice attempt to do funk at Eurovision. But I think Groove Armada is better. As if I listen to a more accessible, but not better Aphex Twins or Gorillaz. verdict: BORDERLINE (IN)
–> ROMANIA: It becomes a bit tiresome that Romania can only send these kind of cheap songs. I think juries will grill it, but televoters love it. verdict: BORDERLINE (IN)
–> DENMARK: Really? People really have this dull pop schlager as a certified qualifier? I think it will struggle similarly to Iceland in 2015. Anja isn’t the best singer either (she screeches way too much. verdict: BORDERLINE (OUT)
–> BULGARIA: Contemporary pop ballad, but I don’t think it’s memorable on first listen. This is more dependent on staging than last year’s Bulgarian entry. verdict: BORDERLINE (IN)
–> BELARUS: I think the Belarussians have the best chance to enter the final since 2014’s ‘Cheesecake’. Yet after two minutes the happy folk changes into too much repetition. verdict: BORDERLINE (IN)
Despite the borderliners, these are…
....MY QUALIFIERS AT THE MOMENT:
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
I agree in most areas but I guess that it is really clear that if Russia participates in whichever way it will qualify. I also think Bulgaria will end up much higher. Especially because this guy is Russian as far as I am concerned or he lives and is known there.
I am not sure about Ireland. It could qualify but I don't think it is an obvious qualifyer. On the contrary I think that Israel has a chance, even though I don't like the song myself. Austria shouldn't be hopeless, too. There is no rule that calm song may not make it to the final.
All in all, I guess that it is still very open who will qualify and who won't.
My predictions are (if Russia does not participate):
Obvious qualifyers:
01. Bulgaria
02. Serbia
03. F.Y.R. Macedonia
04. Romania
05. Estonia
Borderline qualifyers:
06. Denmark
07. Netherlands
08. Hungary
09. Israel
10. Switzerland
Borderline non qualifyers:
11. Austria
12. Belarus
13. Norway
14. Ireland
Obvious non qualifyers:
15. Lithuania
16. Croatia
17. Malta
18. San Marino
Obvious qualifyers:
01. Poland
02. Armenia
03. Sweden
04. Azerbaijan
05. Belgium
06. Greece
Borderline qualifyers:
07. Australia
08. Latvia
09. Finland
10. Portugal
Borderline non qualifyers:
11. Moldova
12. Iceland
13. Czech Republic
14. Cyprus
15. Georgia
16. Albania
17. Montenegro
Obvious non qualifyers:
18. Slovenia
This is very tough this time. There are quite many songs that have a chance of qualifying. Slovenia is the only one that I think is an obvious non qualifyer.
I already have a preliminary TOP 14 of the Grand Final (all entries that we will see back on the left hand side of the scoreboard):
LEFT HAND SIDE SCOREBOARD, TOP 5:
01.
01.
03.
04.
05.
LEFT HAND SIDE SCOREBOARD, TOP 10:
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
LEFT HAND SIDE SCOREBOARD, TOP 14:
11.
12.
13.
14.
BORDERLINE ENTRIES FOR LEFT HAND SIDE SCOREBOARD:
15.
15.
16.
17.
18.
20.
21.
22.
Mind you, a lot can change during the first rehearsals that will start on Monday the 25th of April :-). There we can see the full staging potential of every song and if that will enhance its chances on a good result. But at this moment the other 20 songs that I haven't mentioned in this 'TOP 22' are not among the best. @CraigMooreOHMSS, @Thunderfinger, @Creasy47, @fire_and_ice, @Red_Snow, @Gerard, @MajorDSmythe, @NicNac
However, if I had to, this would be my guess (already considering diaspora)
01. Italy
02. Belgium
03. Armenia
04. Sweden
05. Azerbaijan
06. Bulgaria
07. Poland
08. France
09. Macedonia
10. Greece
11. Serbia
12. Ukraine
13. Estonia
14. Romania
15. Australia
16. Finland
17. Latvia
18. Hungary
19. UK
20. Portugal
21. Israel
22. Switzerland
23. Denmark
24. Netherlands
25. Germany
26. Spain
This is not my personal ranking which looks very different. I especially think that countries like Greece, Poland, Serbia, Romania and Ukraine will benefit enormously by their diaspora and end up high just because of that.
You read my article in here no? https://songfestivalwerk.wordpress.com/2016/05/27/gerts-blog-■-was-editie-2016-onnodig-controversieel/
I gave some good advice on how to improve the jury system. But if I read your comments there's no rationalism, pragmatism or nuance. It's all shit stuff. And I refuse to believe that. Eurovision is not 'shit stuff'. Despite all its flaws, it still is a wonderful event that brings people together. If you loose 1st place and become 2nd, if you loose Top 10 by becoming 11th, or if you fail to qualify to the final, then it's Always good to know there's another sunny day ahead :-).
No. Nor did I say that :-). I said "But if I read your comments there's no rationalism, pragmatism or nuance. It's all shit stuff.". But I didn't say "I read your comments and you said shit stuff".
I didn't say that you said it's shitt stuff. I only implied that once I read your posts it appears like Eurovision is shit stuff. That's quite a difference..
And sorry @BondJasonBond006, I let my article read to you. If you read it closely, you know very damn well that I am critical towards the EBU. But in here I simply don't want to dwell on it. I write about it on my own blog. In here it's, at least for me, the topic about judging the songs....not all behind-the-scenes-drama.
I tried to read your blog but I think it is in Dutch, right? Well I am also sick of all the discussion about how poor Russia is and Yulija ist because of the Ukrainian decision. When they casted Yulija the responisble Russian channel was aware that she could probably be banned since she had traveled to Crimea several times which is against the Ukrainian law. One can of course criticise this law but since the Russians knew that law it was quite provocative to send a singer who actually broke the law.
That's why I don't care much about that political conflict. I won't miss any of those countries if they were anned for some time.
And @BondJasonBond006
@Gustav_Graves and I have given you plenty of arguments why a Jury system makes sense but I guess you simply don't care about any of this arguments.
Just keep in mind the contest now exists for more than 60 years and for the longest time there have only been juries and no one ever criticised the voting scheme. It was actually a commercial decision in 1998 to make the televoters participate.
http://escinsight.com/2017/03/28/eurovision-insight-podcast-juke-box-jury-2017-3/
OMG, you ruined the atmosphere here :-P!
I shall show you some other 'terrific' performances:
Mind your ears
:D
Voting 1969 (How DARE we criticising today's voting system, if THIS actually happened :-P!):
Voting 1979 (the nailbiter between Spain and Israel):
Voting 1981 (another voting thriller, with Terry's commentary):
(PS: That year it didn't matter that a dressing-up act won, and not a better song, since it was the UK off course...:-P)
Voting 1988 (you'll like this one @BondJasonBond006 ;-)):
Voting 1991 (The first time since 1969 that Eurovision was decided on an aex aequo):
Voting 1998 (The voting thriller between Malta and Israel):
Voting 2003 (Belgium was sooo close, but apparently screechy vocals won it):
Voting 2014 (Just to show that between 2004 and 2015 the votings really weren't nailbiters anymore. BUT nice to see my country being awarded with so many 12's :-P):
Voting 2016 (And FINALLY, the nailbiting excitement is BACK :-)!):
I know 'Jukebox Jury' and like it...
Each year they overrate the German song :-) and then we end up last in the show :-)
I.....thought you were from Australia! My mistake then hehe. I think....it's all a matter of realism. If you not only listen to studio versions, but detailedly check some available 'live' performances, then you can actually predict the outcome quite accurately.
Just go back a few pages on this topic. You'll find my 2015 prediction. I was pretty close eh ;-)?
Anyway, I have just been watching this particular 'live' performance. I'm not a fan of the song, but by jolly they slay it like Polina and Aminata in 2015:
I thought Italy 2015.....was a pretty mediocre popera song. But then....I saw it and thought..."Hell, they can sing! They are the true vocalist winners of 2015".
I think that's a sheer exaggeration ;-).
Anyway, here's the running order for both semi finals:
The running order of the First Semi-Final of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest, Thursday May 9th:
(TOP 10 winners move on to the Grand Final. Italy, Spain and the UK vote in this Semi-Final.):
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
ad break
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
11.
12.
13.
ad break
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
The running order of the Second Semi-Final of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest, Thursday May 11th:
(TOP 10 winners move on to the Grand Final. France, Germany and Ukraine vote in this Semi-Final)
01.
02.
(03.
04.
05.
ad break
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
11.
12.
13.
ad break
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
Running order of last year's winner Ukraine in the Grand Final, Saturday May 13th:
22.
Running order of the BIG 5 (biggest financial contributors) in the Grand final, Saturday May 13th:
00.
00.
00.
00.
00.
I re-assessed my predictions a bit....
Semi-Final #1:
01. SWEDEN
(I think for the first time in many years a song will win from spot #1)
02. ARMENIA
(Best of the 'arty' songs in this semi. No, not Belgium. Artsvik screams 'stage potential')
03. FINLAND
(Simply too wonderful and unique. Enya meets Adele. Reminds me of Estonia 2009)
04. AZERBAIJAN
(Very contemporary pop song. There they go again)
05. ICELAND
(By jolly so much underestimations here....)
06. MOLDOVA
(Fun, fun, FUN!)
07. BELGIUM
(I just hope Blanche is very much her own stage director like Loic Nottet was)
08. GREECE
(Germany 2013 meets a...much better singer, and that bald stage director)
09. LATVIA
(Harley Quinn from "Suicide Squad")
10. AUSTRALIA or PORTUGAL
(Ughhh, this is so difficult...But Portugal pleaseee get rid of your fake motorical spasms/ticks!)
Semi-Final #2 (Goodbye Russia):
01. ESTONIA
(This will now be a much easier win)
02. ROMANIA
(Hate it, but it's 'fun'. And that counts for the average televoter)
03. THE NETHERLANDS
(Since when do best songs win? Vocal powerhouse, like Albania 2012 or Italy 2015. Will create goosebumps)
04. ISRAEL
(Hate it, but now I have no doubts anymore)
05. DENMARK
(Not a fan of it. The Dami-Im comparisons are off the scale, but not realistic looking at Danish staging)
06. HUNGARY
(Ethnic uniqueness)
07. F.Y.R.O. MACEDONIA
(First comfortable win for FYROM after quite some time)
08. BULGARIA
(Can't see this winning, needs a lot of jury favors)
09. SERBIA
(Nice enough. Everything said)
10. NORWAY, BELARUS or AUSTRIA
(I tend to favor Norway. Dear Trent, Look what the running order did to Douwe Bob in last year's final televoting-wise)