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For sure.
If the movie releases in October it'll make less than half of Spectres 880 million. Thats about the same as Die Another Day in 2002.
There will come a point when Covid reached a level where we live with it rather than Eradicate it. However I am in agreement with the original post. I fear that we are not going to go back to global travel as it was for example for many years - and those who do travel are taking and making unnecessary risks to themselves and others.
Fauci reckons some return of normality in winter (some, not all) dependent on the success of the vaccines; the WHO says no chance of herd immunity this year. The UK chief medical officer says some normality but dependent on vaccines success. In short we are not going to be going back to sitting on crowded tubes and standing at the bar in pubs for years I think. Well reach a relationship with Covid where we accept 30-50000 deaths a year maybe. We have to. It’s not going anywhere
Personally I expect the virus to evolve to multiple strains to become resistant to the vaccine in a way that we all need to be vaccinated regularly.
NTTD will therefore have a short window of opportunity to make the best of a bad situation.
It will struggle to break even and I think we may not get a new bond film for many many years.
I know this sounds pessimistic but I don’t see any other reality
This is the exact situation that I and many others have feared. That the fallout of this film will finish MGM, and that EON will be stuck in limbo for a number of years, perhaps eventually selling too. There will definitely be a lot of behind the scenes shuffling to come in the years ahead. And I think it's safe to say that we won't see another Bond film during Bidens presidency, after B25.
We will get a new Bond film sooner than later after this but it likely won't be with MGM. Id say within' 4 years. Under any normal circumstances, Bond is a gold mine. Studios will fight tooth and nail for it for sure so the wait likely won't be too long.
Yes, they certainly have a knack of weathering storms but, at some point the luck has to run out, and things can turn nasty. There have been certain times in the franchise history where EON, MGM and everyone else involved have known with resounding certainty "everything is on the line here" and they have somehow managed to make it a success. Live And Let Die, Spy, Goldeneye, Casino Royale and Skyfall. And this is like that again, except the stakes are bigger than ever. If the movie fails to covers its expenses, it'll be 6 years work down the drain, MGM will go belly up, they struggle to begin the ball rolling for a number of years, as the background deals take place. I suspect we won't see another film until Biden has left office.
Well, yeah. Even if they can hold the October date, from then on it will be only 3 years and a bit until Biden's successor is inaugurated. And they haven't consistently put out films in 3 year intervals for a long time, even without all the circumstances that come into it now.
What I do not understand about these doom posts is that some of you seem to think, the Bond series could end with NTTD. We are in the golden age of previously established IP in films. For years now, there have been very few movies (and basically none in the budget regions we are talking about for Bond) made that weren't based on something. And on top of that everything gets re-booted and redone and what not all the time. They just announced an origin movie about Willy Wonka for crying out loud!
Even if it all goes tits up for MGM and possibly even EON in the next 5 years, there is simply no way that a franchise with this type of established credentials just stops.
We could then argue, whether those would be "real" Bond films. But there will be Bond films as long as there is a film industry.
The problem is: there is no indication, that life will be back to normal in October.
The release of a movie in October 2021 will be the same as a release in August 2020, when Tenet came out.
So I'm 100% sure, that the movie will be postponed again, unless a miracle happens and there will be no more social distancing and masks in October. But I doubt it.
So a Covid-Release without red carpet events, with reduced seating etc. - they could have done that last summer or this spring. They don't need October for that.
BUT all these side events and meeting fans from all around the world in London etc. - that's what I wish to experience again with the premiere of NTTD. So I'm willing to wait until that is possible again.
Thought as much. "We'll give you Dune if you give us Godzilla vs Kong." etc.
Actually, he said the end of summer.
When we arrive at the point where we finally are on top of this situation, doesn’t mean that people will rush out to the cinema, as good as it might sound. It will take time for confidence to return. Best to just expect a 2022 release, and be pleasantly surprised if it releases earlier.
Didnt even try and dress this one up.
Nothing is written!
Actually, No he didn’t ...
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/fauci-says-degree-of-normality-possible-by-fall-if-85-of-population-vaccinated-by-end-of-summer-2021-01-21
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bostonglobe.com/2021/01/19/nation/dr-fauci-nation-could-return-some-form-normality-by-fall/?outputType=amp
I’m sure you can find months old quotes but it’s worth using the most up to date scientific opinions.
Regarding bond being a gold mine.... bond is a goldmine in a none Covid world. There are no goldmines anymore. And studios that make money in the future will be the ones who have adapted to change (not MGM) have a strong online presence (not MGM) and have strength in the depth of their intellectual property (not MGM)
reason. I would have to assune they are basing this on when they believe Vaccine rollout will impact the global population enough to release a movie in theatre. I am remaining optimistic that this will be the final delay. As others have pointed out July, August and September were the "best" times for reduced transmission and that was without a vaccine. It stands to reason this summer will be markedly better which explains an early fall release.
I did. Read the title of your own link. It does contradict your original argument that we're looking at winter.
His quote: "Fauci went on to say that if the US could vaccinate 70% to 85% of people by the end of summer, it could approach a "degree of normality" by fall. He described this as the "best-case scenario."
We can spend time splitting hairs all day long over when Summer ends and when Fall begins. Where I live, it remains summer until October. LOL
Agreed, if history has taught us anything i don't believe that we will have to live with this virus and theatres won't ever get back to normal like before. It will happen, the big question is when?
I don't think so either, but I don't expect by October that everything is 100% back to normal, as though the whole thing was a bad dream. I think for the next few years we will be in and out of lockdowns and battling through various strains of the virus with many different vaccines, where we all need top ups and booster jabs every year.
I also think for at least the next couple of years the hospitality sector (including cinemas) will be opened in a controlled fashion like it was last summer, and football stadiums and concerts will allow limited numbers, with crowds all spread out.
Depending on how long this drags on for, the real change to society will all depend on how damaged people will get mentally from this, and how bad the economy also gets hit in the aftermath. No one really knows what the world will look like when we are completely through to the other side.
Spot on!
We are already now experiencing vaccine roll-out problems in the UK, and there are now rumours the new strain will beat the vaccines. Your ridiculously optimistic (unrealistic) opinion doesn't factor in any complications whatsoever, either in the roll-out of the vaccines, or the several new strains developing from different countries, or how much protection we actually get from the vaccines. We are in complete unknown territory, and have been ever since March last year.
The UK government have handled the virus pretty bad last year, which is why we currently have the highest per ratio death rate in the world, and are still on the back foot now, so to suddenly think this vaccine will be a smooth-as-silk roll-out with no problems whatsoever is seriously deluded.
One thing 2020 has taught us is, you cannot plan for anything anymore and say with 100% that it will definitely happen. Last year changed all that, yet for some reason it must have passed you by...