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Yeah, the word of mouth is key. If NTTD is good and people dig it, it will get asses in seats.
Another point that came to mind as I'm thinking about this article — if they delay it to 2022, that "928 million" number would get even higher because of more interest and advertising. Continual delays will lead to a point where it would be genuinely impossible to break even assuming MI6HQ numbers are accurate.
Another good point. They have a choice now and it is not irresponsible to put it through. Theaters are open, people have their shots in major markets. US just passed 70%.
To be fair, it's not BS, but, even with the figures and calculations, I think it's still a bit simplistic. Eon/MGM/Universal will weight up, as best they can, the BO potential for Oct/Nov release during these extremely unpredictable times. Not an easy task, but they also have to balance this against how much more money they will continue to lose if they again postpone the release. Also, a good quarter - or even more - of a big film's profits come - only a few months later - from streaming, cable, TV pre-sales/sales, dvd/BluRay (which, to be fair, is lower these days, but still substantial for a big film) etc.. Bond, as a huge franchise, has another advantage, NTTD, like all Bonds, will have a very, very long shelf life. And if it's a classic 007 film, which it looks likely to be, then that will sustain its life, its income and future profits. I reckon they are being realistic and sober minded and forecasting a theatrical performance (US and international) around $700 - 800 million bucks, but hoping that good reviews and strong word of mouth drive the figure up higher than that. (F9 got pretty poor reviews - friends of mine thought it was rubbish - but it still got close to $700 million.) We will soon find out.
Thank you Colonel. I have been wrestling with how to interpret the Risky Buisness article. You made excellent points. I dont think its as easy as finding the break even point anymore. The producers have to project home release value and the worth of doing that in time for Christmas must be a factor.
Don't mean to put you on the spot, but how do you feel about the film sticking to its current date? You are a very respected member of this community and I'd love to hear what you think.
Another good point — it'll be on VOD by Thanksgiving and Blu Ray by Christmas. That's a pretty big deal that they'll miss out on if it gets pushed.
https://www.royalalberthall.com/tickets/
Could be Tuesday though, if the whole Wembley thing isnt happening.
Staples Center, LA has lots of openings between 9/30 and 10/8. That was one of the rumored venues in that article from a few months ago. There are large events happening all over the U.S. currently so at the moment, nothing is stopping this.
To delay again would be the final nail in the coffin for this film. People's patience will begin to wear so thin, they'll be on a hiding to nothing before it's even released
Any more news on the promotional material starting up again?
Why should those dates be unlikely?
Those are exactly the dates they used at previous premieres.
Almost every time it's the monday or tuesday.
Nothing since the announcement of a new 1 minute trailer. Wonder if that will drop this week.
I don't think it's the RAH-team, but the Universal-Team, that hosts the premiere.
Starting building everything up in the night from sunday to monday should work for an event on tuesday evening. They would have have the hall for two complete days for themselfs.
In march 2020 they had an event on Sunday, and had the premiere planned for tuesday aswell:
https://www.royalalberthall.com/tickets/archive?start=219
F&F is trash but it made 1/3 of its gross in China. Bond won't have such advantage. Plus, previous F&F films were trash too, but the 7th and 8th episodes both made more than SF worldwide. I'm pretty confident that unfortunately NTTD has zero chances to make more than F9. At this point, NTTD would be lucky to hit the $500 million mark.
The part I am unsure about is what MGM's position is. Basically, they are in the middle of being bought, the price has already been agreed, but still: Can they just go and say: "Yeah, we're going to release our biggest earner at a guaranteed short-term loss, while you are in the middle of buying this company."? Wouldn't they want to keep the possibility of higher earnings alive at least until it isn't really their call to make anymore?
Added to that: The home video strategy and the related income will change, once the MGM sale is through. They will no longer shop the streaming rights around and have it licenced here for a couple of months and then have it there for a bit, taking money everytime and keeping physical media as the surest way you can watch a Bond film. Once Amazon and MGM are done merging, all the Bond films will be on Prime and that's it. Yes, they will keep producing physical media, but will the sale of those not completely crater once there is a stable premium streaming home for the Bond films? If people put "No Time to Die" in the Amazon searchbox, Amazon will surely tell them: "Sure, you could buy that BluRay for $15 or whatever, or you could rent it for $5, but you could also get Prime for $13 a month and watch the film instantly and you'll also get access to every other Bond film and these 5.000 other films..." And bang, off of the film's take that money comes and directly into Jeff's pocket it goes.
I'd be surprised if they haven't already begun. Big missed opportunity if they haven't been forward planning all this time, upcoming release or not.
Tend to agree. If Mission Impossible can cost way less and make nearly as much, then I wonder if the studio bosses aren't asking why 007 costs so much.
Exactly. That's the thing. We just hope they have been thinking about it, even if they usually downplay it.
Guarantee it'll be cheaper solely because the leading man will get paid orders of magnitude less.
Still no sign of a company being formed for the next film though:
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/S-fn_wwzDoscAiw7KWl-vIwbtD4/appointments
As you might notice, Bond 25 Limited was incorporated before Spectre was even released. So where's Bond 26?
And another variable to add - a reputational one. A lot of this discourse is simplistically suggesting the people who want this to come out October instead of waiting for when it could make a billion are just us fans..but there is a whole other angle of industry people hoping it sticks - none more so than cinemas themselves, for which this has been the film that is most symbolic of the COVID crisis. After a year and a half of delays that were indeed more forced by the pandemic closures, now the vaccine is out there and both doses will have been offered to all adults come release date in major markets...a move to 2022 (however well founded from a profitability standpoint) might not end up going down well, IMO. And to think of the subsequent domino effect with other films...if NTTD moves for those reasons, could others?
+1. Fully agree. Another delay short of widespread cinema closures would make the studio look really bad I think.
Yeah. We hope it happens sooner though.
Big reason I remain convinced that — barring the situation getting significantly worse — it holds the current date. A lot of symbolism and power in it finally coming out. Who knows, perhaps if it is good they'll get some award buzz for scratching the industry's back...
https://usa.007store.com/products/james-bond-no-time-to-die-poster-profile-poster-heavyweight-paper
I hope not: did you see Tenet?