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As long as the authorities and doctors consider Covid 19 too danerous, there will not be a limited screening at movie theatres. Think about how they would have to disinfect the bathrooms the auditoriums and the like. We have to wait and see.
My head feels dizzy just thinking about that.
I agree - I'm feeling depressed and tired just at the moment from this wait.
Charismatic man.
Unfortunately when it comes to a big film like this taking its revenue from major chain cinemas, it has to be one way or the other - either a traditional theatrical release, or VOD only. Because simultaneous screenings with VOD would be very very limited, only to independent and arthouse venues, like what happened with Roma and The Irishman. Unless something drastic happens in the major chains attitudes towards the theatrical window (period of exclusivity between cinema release and home entertainment), that's how it will end up...
Now, here's an interesting wrinkle - Trolls World Tour made $50M in the US in its 'virtual' opening weekend.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/04/trolls-world-tour-vod-revenue-impact-universal-1202225471/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
The likely two big factors here are a fully captive audience during this lockdown and the fact that they had a full advertising campaign like a traditional theatrical release (out of consequence of the last minute change in release strategy). So theoretically it could be possible for a blockbuster to match traditional theatrical revenues to a certain extent on digital (especially as the distributor takes more of said revenue back - cinema release on average it's half, here it's closer to if not above 80%), though they may end up earning slightly less when the film comes out on Blu-ray, DVD, regular digital as opposed to premium rental. But possible issues are 1. is there a ceiling to this and 2. relationships with cinemas when they come out of this.
So to come back to the breakeven point question, @CraigMooreOHMSS is spot on -$650m is the break even - for a traditional theatrical release. For a home release that number drops.
And this reminded me also of these brand partnerships - that's another thing that could force MGM's hand to go VOD should cinemas not reopen in November. As we know, product placement is a way bigger opportunity for Bond than any other major blockbuster or franchise, with history showing that a lot of the money MGM spent on the film is already being recouped by these deals. But the April to November delay screwed up a lot of plans for people like Nokia or Heineken...and further delays would further destabilise that.
It's not EON that's at stake here though, it's MGM. They fully financed the film.
The product placement deals and the sale of international distribution to Universal, from MGM's POV, has decreased the breakeven already...just at this point, a question of maintaining prestige, maintaining good relations with major cinema chains, and how far the ceiling for premium VOD release revenues can go. Trolls exceeding it's US opening weekend tracking by 2x-3x by going digital is a sign in that regard.
I have no desire to see it on VOD. Theatre release or nothing.
At the moment industry consensus is for reopenings in July, with likely a few months (some are really optimising for some reason and saying weeks - nah) of enforced social distancing by seating people apart and capping capacity, as well as other sanitary measures.
Currently even the likes of Disney and Warner Bros are taking the financial risk and releasing Mulan and Tenet in July right when things are currently due to reopen as a helping hand to cinema owners - audience confidence from a health POV is one factor, the other is content - audiences will need new stuff, for major chain audiences in particular seeing old films they've probably watched in lockdown on the big screen for sake of the big screen isn't gonna be enough. The guy owning Cineworld went on the record to say they don't even foresee reopening without major studio films.
If cinemas don't reopen in November changes to that whole industry would be seismic and many - even big chains - simply may not survive being shut down for so long. Even if they do, by that point audiences will have likely accustomed even more to the new normal of consuming all entertainment at home. The notion of a traditional wide theatrical release that can gross as much as a a billion as we know it today might not exist if reopenings don't happen until the end of the year.
That's where the VOD discussion for Bond really becomes a possibility, and that's why being the first to move to November in the first place is such as smart move on MGM and EON's part.
Boyle’s Bond 25 could have been the worst film ever, but a lot of you would have just accepted it because at least we got it early! It also could’ve been good, but I honesty couldn’t give a crap, because things happened and people made decisions that meant it wasn’t gonna happen. We now have a different director with new circumstances that mean the film can’t be released. But of course to a lot of you on here, the film producers supposedly should know that a huge virus is gonna sweep the globe and mean they’d lose millions and millions if they decided to release it? Hmmm.
If anyone has a problem with a later release needs to really stop and think about what’s going on right now, and realise that a global quarantine and a virus is more important than keeping fan boys happy. Your life carries on whether Bond is released in 2021 or tomorrow, and blaming EON and the producers is just classic toy throwing so anyway, the film will come out when it comes out.
I wonder if that will mean far fewer very expensive blockbusters for a few years.
Having said that, I am absolutely stunned that @Getafix wrote that he has no desire to see it on VOD. The way most of us experienced most Bond films was at home on a small screen. I don't dislike DN or TB any less just because I never saw them at the cinemas, and I believe most fans feel the same way.
Social distancing will be with us until there is a vaccine - that will have massive implications for businesses predicated on gatherings of people such as cinemas, pubs, theatres etc. We're a long way from 100% normality.
If i ever get the opportunity i would definitely want to watch every single bond film in theatre even if i have seen most of them on TV.
Why not get a projetor to watch them on? It's not the full cinema experience for sure, but it's close to it.
They would not.
Though releasing an extended clip-slash-trailer would certainly be a cool way to begin building hype back up
I'm thinking of the millions of people in, say, southeast Asia who are Bond fans and would gladly stump up a few bucks to see it in cinema, but who don't have a credit card, or access to home streaming.
$20 to rent for 48 hours is what Universal's been pioneering. And local platforms and solutions - along with global players like iTunes - exist in those territories too. All you need is a laptop or smartphone at least...
I am expecting the same thing to be the case with a vaccine.
Work had already begun in January: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-why-it-takes-at-least-a-year-to-make-a-vaccine.html
Our U.S. Coronavirus taskforce expert is cautiously optimistic:
https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccines-may-be-ready-sooner-8a39a2f2-aa06-470f-b456-aa57168d803c.html
Don't be surprised if there is one developed and mass produced by fall of this year:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans
Fingers crossed, folks. NTTD will be in theaters this November, and by then we'll be more excited than ever to be back in the theaters.
+1
Between now and September. At least 2 months will be needed for marketing and advertising and NTTD it’s not in the position to start marketing again without a bulletproof release date. They already lost a lot of money. It’s risky... how about a potential second wave? No one knows that’s the point.
Italy will re-open construction sites, industries, offices etc etc in a couple of weeks. Schools will open in September (even tho final exams will take place at school by June), all things linked to seaside tourism will open in the Summer BUT theaters will see the green light in December. As for now this is the current situation in the third power in Europe. Theaters are not that capital to the economy and are risky to open for obvious reasons so it looks like the movie chains will be “sacrificed” (alongside other stuff like sports events, gyms etc etc). Without mentioning the US situation... NTTD will come out theatrically only when going to the cinema will be safe for everyone mostly worldwide.
You're being ignorant towards piracy. You will loose a huge chunk of money once that occurs.
I think the pandemic has to get much worse before we get into a situation where VOD becomes realistic. If it's still a problem in August/September, they'll push NTTD to summer 2021.
I'm fed up of this 'I want it now!' mentality. People need to be patient and wait for theatres to re-open and this disaster to subside. There are far more pressing issues than whether we get our precious Bond film or not.
Yes I agree.
Sure!