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Yep, I think that, given the option, it'll be more delays rather than an online release.
No business can delay indefinitely, because a business burns through cash simply by existing.
IMO they will release the film this year. If November is looking truly terrible, then they will not delay just a few weeks to February, instead they will delay properly and release summer 2021.
Summer 2021 they will release whatever. No matter how poor theatres are, no matter how weak the economy, no matter how widespread Covid might be, they will release, because they have to turn this product into money.
I know nothing of the film industry and am heavily biased towards wanting it to go to VOD but I find this to be the most interesting scenario yet. Maybe you're on to something here.
They cannot just delay forever or they risk the future of the franchise.
I think you left out a zero there - $450 million. Trolls World Tour made $100 million in its "opening week" in the US on Premium VOD. And as I mentioned in my post, the bar to clear to break even is likely lower than we think because so much of the production costs are taken care of by product placement deals. Do any Bond history buffs here have any info or figures on how much of the budgets of the older films were covered by it? Certainly read stuff about it in Some Kind of Hero...
On Netflix deal, yeah they - or a rival like Apple - won't pay a billion. The way the acquisitions and offloads of completed films for streaming platforms work is that they have to cover the production budget plus however much profit the original studio would have made off the box office and home entertainment release. And the record there is $70 million which Apple paid for Greyhound starring Tom Hanks, which is out this Friday on their service Apple TV+. Now they've paid much more than that for new projects which they then have creative control over - eg the last and the next Scorseae... For this it would probably be around 300-400m they'd have to pay.
But who knows, brave new world. I know Baz had that article and it's a fair argument against a VOD move should November be ruled out for cinema reopenings - Bond not being a cinema event is gonna hurt UK cinemas in particular.
I would shed a small tear if we lost out on a theatrical release, especially considering the tempting lure of some glorious iMAX footage. But, as others have quite rightly said there’s going to need to be some pressing recouping of production costs at some point.
On the point above around advertising budget, I was lucky to visit the TWINE premiere owing to a good friend being involved with Fujitsu. They’d supplied the computers used in the film and lots of display screens. It wasn’t mega money from memory - no where near the Carlsberg $28 million - which I know did go towards the production budget.
That said I’m also pretty sure that the product placement (PP) fee’s typically come in after production has wrapped (with partners having some sway over edits - (Think Omega objecting to the knuckle duster in CR) and certainly for the Craig era the PP costs have covered the global marketing effort - which was roughly $118 million for Skyfall but roughly $100 for Spectre. This could be down to production budgets eating into this overall pot. There was a difference of $45million production costs on Spectre Vs Skyfall (Skyfall having the marginally lesser budget).
Though arguably Spectre better embraced/marketed via social/digital channels. My favourite trick was the China-centric re-versioning of the title track with Jane Zhang. Tapping into her massive domestic online following in mainland China. Shared this below if people haven't seen this:
Hopefully, there’ll be some sort of update via 007.com, but I think Tenet is the one to watch in terms of overall industry nerves. If this gets pushed to a 2021 release, well the writing is well and truly on the wall for a further delay.
To say nothing of their (much cheaper) live-action films aimed at teen and adult audiences like The King of Staten Island, The High Note, and Irresistible.
Now that's not to say that they'll never consider putting it on VOD, just that right now they will do everything in their power to make sure that doesn't happen.
You are quite correct on this point @NeverSayNeverAgain. It's a fairly standard business practice in film for these kinds of deals to essentially be a kind of refund on the initial production after it wraps.
This is done for a variety of reasons but probably the most obvious one is to protect their investment in case a production shuts down and doesn't restart.
Wot? :)
@Mallory Could it be this photo? I don't have a wide shot
We're definitely gonna need that photo asap.
Yes it is, and going by Mallorys description it seems to be the same scene
Ah, so there’s another picture of that scene I take it?
Don't know. But it seems that way or maybe it's the same shot/angle but much wider
I'd imagine Tenet being pushed has pushed plans for a lot of films, Bond included.
Ooo, very cool! I like it a lot. Safin is probably my most anticipated single element about this movie, though I'm excited by a lot of other things too. I have a very good feeling about his villain going down as one of the greats.
@Mallory Cool photo. And I'm about to make a snippet of your background (carpet?) famous by tweeting out a cropped version :D
I'll try and do a better picture later today.
I honestly feel that Rami Malek is the most perfect casting idea in the Craig era so far. So much will depend on the film itself, but the idea itself is inspired. I've seen him for years in Mr Robot and knew how good an actor he is. However, it never crossed my mind that he'd be a good Bond baddie. But when I heard his name in contention for the part, I was shocked that it hadn't crossed my mind.
When Bardem was cast in SF, it felt like a coup as he was a big name but we all knew he could play bad. When Waltz was cast it felt like a lazy choice.
But Malek is a really exciting pick...I truly hope that they don't drop the ball and both Fukunaga and Rami do something inspired. It's a great piece of casting, but could go very south if the film and character suck. The photos encourage me massively.
I agree. Maybe Safin is Russian-Japanese or Russian-Chinese. There's a very Oriental feel to that picture.
If anything it would be japanese. Cary's father, Anthony Shuzo Fukunaga, was a third-generation Japanese-American. Most likely this is Cary honouring his heritage with all the Japanese-inspired elements:
Bonsai tree, the Noh mask (Nō, derived from the Sino-Japanese word for "skill" or "talent"), Safins clothes, the miniature house (called Minka, or traditional Japanese house) in the background in his bunker, and now this tree which looks japanese. Maybe the whole garden looks japanese
And the whole cement bunker could be designed by the famous Japanese architect Tadao Ando.
@Mallory Is that true, and if so, could you upload it here?
Edit: Never mind, just realised it's the mask picture in the cabin
In light of Fukunaga's comments, this is just a quick reminder that Paul Haggis apparently contributed to NTTD's script in 2018. At first this seems like a weird rumour, but when you consider how specific the report is - even going as far to state that his draft is labelled 'intermittent' and dated 22 November 2018.
I should add that I messaged Haggis on Instagram and asked if he was involved in the script and he said 'No.' Seemed pretty definitive.
Nonetheless, perhaps he didn't write a new draft. Maybe just consulted and offered some tips and suggestions. We know that Scott Z Burns didn't do enough to get a credit and likely did the same thing....
I just wanted to share that my Mom has come down with somewhat severe Covid symptoms and is awaiting her testing appointment. She is a huge Bond fan and we were so looking forward to seeing NTTD in April and I'm praying she doesn't have the virus and pulls through so we can see it together when it comes out.
If any of you are the praying type I would appreciate it if you could find a few quiet seconds in your day to wish her well.
I look forward to dissecting every frame of this film with you fine folks when this nightmare is over.