NTTD & Corona

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  • Could NTTD become the first Bond film to earn more in China than in the US?
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 6,297
    Hi all been away from here a while.

    Just reading through the thread and have a few things to say,

    (1) EON missed a massive financial opportunity when the majority of the world was in lock down, a release to PVOD back in March would have netted them a substantial return without any question, most likely as great as a normal world wide release.
    (2) The proposed cinema release of NTTD in November will bomb, no one I know is even considering going to a movie theatre until there is wide sprend vacination program, so they delay again and again and again, until the vast majority can no longer be bothered, with the prospect that it becomes the last ever bond movie, Sad.
    (3) With regards to a vaccine, to put this into perspective, early on with Covid I remember watching a well repected virologist on the BBC saying that a vaccine is in no way a sure thing, they had been working on one for HIV for the past 40 Years without success and that the primary problem with Covid 19 as with HIV was it's ability to mutate, so what was required was the holly grail of vaccines one that gives protection against all probable mutation now or in the future, which in his opinion may not be achievable. Personally hope he's wrong.
    (4) TENET will show the way, if Disney haven't already with Mulan, IMHO TENET will open in selected theatres just to get word of mouth going, but will end up on VOD within a month.
    (5) The Problem the Studio's have is that they're sitting on multi-millions of investment with a very limited income stream, we've all seen the trade press announcing mass lay off's. The question is how long can they keep going without their normal turnover, they are after all Businesses. I personally believe there are only so many times you can watch old movies, no matter how good, even CR or GF. Regard to the majority of new content being released on streaming platforms (:|, I'm reminded of the 80's, a straight to video movie, picked from the video store on a wet thursday evening to go with your beer and take away, only to think afterwards "That's an hour and a half of my life I'll never get back".

    In conclusion, these are unprecedented circumstance that are with us for the forseable future, Businesses like entertainment will have to accept and adapt to the changing scenario, Anthony Liccoine a poet said “They say, timing is everything. But then they say, there is never a perfect time for anything", so stay safe and carry on as best you can.

    If it's the last Bond movie, we have much bigger problems to deal with, like the world ending.
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 13,790
    Well that's redundant, isn't it.
  • I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,179
    I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.

    Wise words.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,216
    I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.

    Completely understand this. Having had a Summer job in a theatre, I can honestly say that it's not worth the risk - if only for the sole reason that the number of staff required to effectively deep clean each screen simply isn't there in most venues.
  • Posts: 1,394
    I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.

    Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.
  • Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.

    I personally think that it's much riskier to go on holiday abroad at the moment than it is to go to the cinema for a few hours.
  • Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.

    I personally think that it's much riskier to go on holiday abroad at the moment than it is to go to the cinema for a few hours.

    Not an awful lot of people going on holidays abroad right now, either...
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    Posts: 4,585
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.

    Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.

    If you drive drunk, and get in a crash, you statistically have a good chance of surviving. The passengers in your car or the vehicle you hit? I guess that's their problem. (?)
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,183
    I work at Newport Beach, and frankly there's way too many rich/upper-class idiots going out on vacations now when they should be staying home.
  • Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.

    I personally think that it's much riskier to go on holiday abroad at the moment than it is to go to the cinema for a few hours.

    In the UK the death rate now isn't far off the daily average of death by road accidents.
  • Not an awful lot of people going on holidays abroad right now, either...
    Actually, there seems to be a substantial number (at least from the UK) that are still going on holiday abroad at the moment - that's what I gather when I've seen BBC news reports regarding people reacting to new quarantine restrictions coming in for several countries and having to fly back home earlier to avoid having to self isolate when they get back home.

    I personally think that it's really stupid to consider going abroad for a holiday during a pandemic. That's why I think a cinema trip is far less risky overall.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 24,179
    Not an awful lot of people going on holidays abroad right now, either...
    I personally think that it's really stupid to consider going abroad for a holiday during a pandemic.

    It is. It absolutely is. But then, people ARE stupid. They embrace censorship in the name of social justice. They preach more "privacy" protection while throwing everything about themselves online. And they travel abroad during the worst pandemic in recent times.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716

    Seems to depend on the country. Tenet's ticket sales are also terrible in Australia, but in Germany and South Korea it is looking much better.
  • Hi all been away from here a while.

    Just reading through the thread and have a few things to say,

    (1) EON missed a massive financial opportunity when the majority of the world was in lock down, a release to PVOD back in March would have netted them a substantial return without any question, most likely as great as a normal world wide release.
    (2) The proposed cinema release of NTTD in November will bomb, no one I know is even considering going to a movie theatre until there is wide sprend vacination program, so they delay again and again and again, until the vast majority can no longer be bothered

    To be fair to them, it’s easy to say they missed the opportunity now, but the world was blindsided and we didn’t know how long it was going to last. Cases in the UK were fairly low at the time they pushed it back for example (although probably a lot higher than they seemed to be fair, we weren’t testing enough for a while). They might have thought the lockdowns would get things under control. And a lot of people were annoyed that they even bothered delaying it at the time (“it’s just the flu”).

    I agree that they should probably cut their losses and release it to VOD come November though. Charge an expensive amount and hope for the best. Or just sell it to Netflix if they want to make sure they’re not losing any money. They love throwing money around, I’m sure they’d happily pay through the nose for the new Bond film.

    If it was coming out now then I think it’d do alright. But November, flu season, with everyone staying inside more and getting ill anyway. I’d like to see it at the cinema but I’m not optimistic personally. If it was out now I’d brave the cinema. But if cases were higher, as they might be soon, I’d definitely sit it out. And the US box office is looking like a complete write off anyway, even if it came out today.

    So, you have to wonder if there’s any point bothering, as much of a shame is that is. They could push it back a bit at a time again and again. But they might just be delaying the inevitable, unless they’re willing to sit on it for literally years (which imo seems unlikely, surely they’ll need some sort of return on investment soon).

    They’ll need to make a decision soon as well. Time to ramp the marketing up again in a few weeks. And if it is skipping cinemas, then the cinema owners deserve a heads up. Don’t want another Mulan situation where they’re conned into giving the studio free advertising.
  • DwayneDwayne New York City
    Posts: 2,844
    The article seems to state that while current theater attendance is low, pre-bookings for TENET are strong.

    [i]But ticket sales for Tenet look promising, with industry experts claiming the rate of sales put it at a similar level to Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, which took £50million.
    …..
    Tim Richard, founder of Vue, told The Guardian: 'We have done a staggered opening over three weeks to make sure we are game-ready when Tenet comes out. Pre-bookings now are really strong.[/i]


    Here in the US, TV ads for TENET are playing during the NBA playoffs with an “Opens on September 3rd ,Where available” footnote. That “where available” will – naturally (and logically) – exclude New York City, where most of our focus for the next few weeks will be on school re-openings and any possible COVID-19 impacts that result from that.

    Fingers crossed, if that goes well, a decision on when to re-open movie houses may be next in line.

  • Posts: 1,314
    Said it since the start but infection rates are rising across Europe and in the US. And it’s the height of summer when we can all spend time outside.
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    I'm a huge Nolan fan and would love to watch Tenet in a cinema but no way am I sitting indoors with a load of strangers and the hope that the cinema staff have done their cleaning job effectively..............pass.

    Statistically speaking,you have a better chance of dying by driving your car to the theater rather than sitting in there with a load of strangers.

    Why do people feel the need to make up statistics. A quick look on google suggests 38,000 people die every year in the US in road accidents. In half that time this year 180,000 people have died of covid and it’s currently still around 1,000 a day.
  • Posts: 1,314
    Looking at the German numbers this sounds like a bad idea
  • GadgetManGadgetMan Lagos, Nigeria
    Posts: 4,247
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited August 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Looks like Tenet is about to lose a major market : the second wave of the pandemic in South Korea has crushed all hopes of a box office revival.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 40,968
    Looks like Tenet is about to lose a major market : the second wave of the pandemic in South Korea has crushed all hopes of a box office revival.

    Shame, I was just reading about their two day previews of the film netting $737,000 or so.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited August 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Creasy47 wrote: »
    Looks like Tenet is about to lose a major market : the second wave of the pandemic in South Korea has crushed all hopes of a box office revival.

    Shame, I was just reading about their two day previews of the film netting $737,000 or so.

    Yeah, the South Korean box office dropped 73% this past weekend compared to the previous two weekends. And sadly for Tenet (and all other movies) moving forward, the South Korean government has severely tightened their social distancing rules (no more than 50 people per showing in Seoul).

    I'm starting to think Tenet may struggle to pass $350 million world wide. Which, on a $200 + million budget, is a disaster. All hopes are on Europe and China now.
  • edited August 2020 Posts: 12,837
    Creasy47 wrote: »
    Looks like Tenet is about to lose a major market : the second wave of the pandemic in South Korea has crushed all hopes of a box office revival.

    Shame, I was just reading about their two day previews of the film netting $737,000 or so.

    Yeah, the South Korean box office dropped 73% this past weekend compared to the previous two weekends. And sadly for Tenet (and all other movies) moving forward, the South Korean government has severely tightened their social distancing rules (no more than 50 people per showing in Seoul).

    I'm starting to think Tenet may struggle to pass $350 million world wide. Which, on a $200 + million budget, is a disaster. All hopes are on Europe and China now.

    I genuinely think Bond would do better if they released it, because it’s an established franchise. Speaking from the UK, I’ve seen no hype at all for Tenet. Not sure it would’ve done especially well anyway (although obviously it would’ve done better). But people always go to see the new Bond film.

    I think we can take this to be the final nail in the coffin of a November cinema release though. No way will they risk it now.

    Personally I’m hoping they just release it to VOD or sell it to a streaming service if that’s the case, rather than delay again. We don’t know how long this will last. And they won’t want to sit on it for more than another year imo, there will come a time where they’ll have to bite the bullet to see some sort of return on investment. So, depending on what things are like this time next year, they could just be delaying the inevitable.

    With enough of a marketing push I think they could make decent money off it with a home release over Christmas. Not as much as at the cinema in normal times, but like I said, I dunno if delaying it until we’re back to normal will really be an option. Surely they’ll need to see some money back from it soon. They’ve spent all that money on it, and all the brands and sponsors will doubtless be waiting impatiently for it to come out.

    So, it might just be down to them analysing which would be the smaller loss for them. I don’t think they’ll delay it over and over until we’re back to normal. That could potentially be too far away. I think this time next year is the latest we’ll possibly see it. They won’t wait any longer after that.
  • Posts: 1,394
    If Mulan sells well on the Disney+ platform it might well convince the people behind NTTD to sell it to a streaming service for a similar deal ( Paying for your usual subsciption and then paying a premium price to unlock NTTD to watch as many times as you want as long as you still subscribe to that service )
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