NTTD & Corona

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  • Jan1985 wrote: »
    Option 4: keep the November date as it is

    Even if cinemas are open, social distancing, edge of Winter where respiratory illnesses thrive, older demographic shielding, cases increasing with hospital admissions and respirator use a lagging indicator. The decision to green light the November publicity campaign was made just before case numbers started to take off again but Universal need to do the right thing and delay for 12 months.
  • What if things are the same (or similar) at that point?
  • DoctorNoDoctorNo USA-Maryland
    Posts: 755
    Yeah exactly, we’re in the same boat next year. There is no right thing, it’s just a movie.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    France just hit a daily record of over 13,000 new cases, the highest daily increase since the pandemic began. Our public health agency has also confirmed that hospitalizations (including hospitalizations in extensive care) & deaths have started to rise again.

    If NTTD does release in November, it may become increasingly unlikely that I will get to see it in theaters if the situation keeps degrading.

    If it gets to that point, I will join the 'NTTD must be delayed' camp. I have no desire of discovering a new Bond film on VOD or directly on Blu Ray.
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    antovolk wrote: »
    @antovolk Is a November theatrical release still possible if both the US and UK box office markets are closed due to a Covid-19 resurgence? And if not - what is the most likely scenario: a delay to 2021, or they drop NTTD on VOD in November anyway?

    Cases are also surging in Spain, France and Portugal now. About 4 major cities in France have very strict restrictions as of this week.

    If the UK is out the picture then that's definitely the tipping point I think. Either delay (most likely) or some sort of PVOD solution for US and UK (less likely)

    Let s see what the government says.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 13,792
    I haven't found US data organized that way @Thunderfinger, to show death rates and specifically excess morbidity. Instead there's a focus on positive cases, which doesn't give perspective or understanding.


    From the UK link:
    ons-logo.svg
    Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales,
    provisional: week ending 4 September 2020
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest
    Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.
    1. Main points
    • The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36) was 7,739; this was 1,293 deaths fewer than in Week 35.
    • In Week 36, the number of deaths registered was 15.7% below the five-year average (1,443 fewer deaths); this is the first time since Week 32 that weekly deaths have been below the five-year average.
    • Of the deaths registered in Week 36, 78 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 25 weeks and a 22.8% decrease compared with Week 35 (a difference of 23 deaths), accounting for 1.0% of all deaths in England and Wales.
    • The week ending 4 September (Week 36) contained the late August bank holiday, which would have contributed to the decreased number of deaths registered and the decrease in deaths registered involving COVID-19.
    • The numbers of deaths in hospitals, care homes and other locations were below the five-year average in Week 36, while the number of deaths in private homes was above the five-year average.
    • The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased across the majority of the English regions, and all regions had lower overall deaths than the five-year average.
    • In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased to four deaths (from three deaths in Week 35), while the total number of deaths in Week 36 was below the five-year average (64 deaths).
    • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36) was 8,996, which was 1,403 fewer deaths than the five-year average and 1,341 fewer deaths than Week 35; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 36, 83 deaths involved COVID-19, 27 fewer deaths than in Week 35.
    2. Deaths registered by week
    Figure 1: The number of deaths in England and Wales involving
    COVID-19 decreased for the 20th consecutive week

    Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales,
    28 December 2019 to 4 September 2020
    6d3c82ad1c20a4679af848422d4046dba93d4116.png
    • Figures include deaths of non-residents.
    • Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
    • All figures for 2020 are provisional.
    • The International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18).
    • A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category.
    • Figures for Influenza and Pneumonia represent where either of these causes have been mentioned anywhere on the death certificate meaning they will not necessarily be the underlying cause of death.
    • The number of deaths registered in Weeks 19, 20, 22 and 23 were impacted by the Early and Late May Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020 in Week 19 and Monday 25 May 2020 in Week 22); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Thanks for trimming it down, and highlighting the most relevant segments, @RichardTheBruce. I don t know how to do that.
  • Posts: 3,276
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



  • Posts: 5,993
    Meanwhile, The Shows must go on will start again this week, with new shows filmed, and streamed on YouTube, including Fame, Jeff Wayne's War of the Worlds, and a few concerts.

    https://www.whatsonstage.com/london-theatre/news/the-shows-must-go-on-series-free-musicals_52428.html
  • Posts: 3,164
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



    the Tenet 2.0 narrative really picking up with this film...
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited September 2020 Posts: 4,343
    antovolk wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



    the Tenet 2.0 narrative really picking up with this film...

    Yeah and it’s annoying. I still can’t believe EoN is goin full steam into this suicide mission with their only precious asset.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,183
    antovolk wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



    the Tenet 2.0 narrative really picking up with this film...

    The stakes have never been higher.
  • matt_u wrote: »
    antovolk wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



    the Tenet 2.0 narrative really picking up with this film...

    Yeah and it’s annoying. I still can’t believe EoN is goin full steam into this suicide mission with their only precious asset.

    What is surprising to me re: this topic is how many people sure sound like they're rooting for Bond (or maybe just Eon) to fail here. Look, I want to see this movie ASAP just like the rest of us. Theaters aren't open yet in my neck of the woods and if NTTD is indeed released in November I probably won't be able to see it on a large screen with an audience around me ... for that matter, I probably won't be able to see it until it's released on DVD and Blu-ray. I fully recognize that it's not going to be able to make blockbuster $$$$ for a long time, and probably never WILL see the sort of returns it would have seen in a pre-COVID world. But we are where we are and we take what we can get. I recognize this fact, the movie moguls recognize this fact, and I don't think anybody's going to fault the Bond franchise for not bringing in a billion bucks this time around. Still, the movie industry needs to pick up and move forward -- your local theater needs this as much as if not more than anybody else in the food chain -- so I'm hoping that NTTD is indeed released in November. I hope it does as well as possible financially, given current realities... and I fully expect that it will be released in a wide variety of other formats, VOD, DVD, B-RAY, and anything else that can be thought of, ASAP, once it's had a reasonable run in the theaters. Assuming the film industry does indeed survive in one form or another once we have attained a New Normal, then James Bond will indeed return. So let's cease this useless bitching about why The Powers That Be have not recognized the excellence of whichever plan you or I have been promoting... and just root for Bond to save the world as we know it one last time, okay?
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 6,298
    If the US and the UK are in lockdown, which appears increasingly likely (at least for the more sensible UK), I can't see Eon making the November release date.
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 13,792
    Ah, what happened to the days when folks proposed they didn't care about box office because it didn't indicate the quality of the film.

    Now in this case, it mostly won't.
  • SuperintendentSuperintendent A separate pool. For sharks, no less.
    Posts: 871
    I fully recognize that it's not going to be able to make blockbuster $$$$ for a long time, and probably never WILL see the sort of returns it would have seen in a pre-COVID world. But we are where we are and we take what we can get. I recognize this fact, the movie moguls recognize this fact, and I don't think anybody's going to fault the Bond franchise for not bringing in a billion bucks this time around.

    Exactly. If NTTD fails at the box office, no one will be blamed and fired for it, and making Bond films in the future won't be jeopardized. They will most likely be made with smaller budgets, and I'm all for it.

    The only consequence will be that very rich people will lose some money instead of earning some.

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited September 2020 Posts: 4,343
    matt_u wrote: »
    antovolk wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Probably not saying much but the so-called "Head of theatrical distribution" here in Denmark, Frederik Malling Juul, has just confirmed that NTTD is locked for a November theater release. "The World needs James Bond right now, and he will deliver come November" he is quoted saying.



    the Tenet 2.0 narrative really picking up with this film...

    Yeah and it’s annoying. I still can’t believe EoN is goin full steam into this suicide mission with their only precious asset.

    What is surprising to me re: this topic is how many people sure sound like they're rooting for Bond (or maybe just Eon) to fail here. Look, I want to see this movie ASAP just like the rest of us. Theaters aren't open yet in my neck of the woods and if NTTD is indeed released in November I probably won't be able to see it on a large screen with an audience around me ... for that matter, I probably won't be able to see it until it's released on DVD and Blu-ray. I fully recognize that it's not going to be able to make blockbuster $$$$ for a long time, and probably never WILL see the sort of returns it would have seen in a pre-COVID world. But we are where we are and we take what we can get. I recognize this fact, the movie moguls recognize this fact, and I don't think anybody's going to fault the Bond franchise for not bringing in a billion bucks this time around. Still, the movie industry needs to pick up and move forward -- your local theater needs this as much as if not more than anybody else in the food chain -- so I'm hoping that NTTD is indeed released in November. I hope it does as well as possible financially, given current realities... and I fully expect that it will be released in a wide variety of other formats, VOD, DVD, B-RAY, and anything else that can be thought of, ASAP, once it's had a reasonable run in the theaters. Assuming the film industry does indeed survive in one form or another once we have attained a New Normal, then James Bond will indeed return. So let's cease this useless bitching about why The Powers That Be have not recognized the excellence of whichever plan you or I have been promoting... and just root for Bond to save the world as we know it one last time, okay?

    Okay? No.

    I don’t see the point of releasing a film in the worst possible window of the year, since by November with colder temperatures affecting Bond’s main markets the situation will get far worse. Everyone’s delaying for a reason, but if we are fine with Bond being the only sacrificial lamb in order to save the industry* for Fast and Furious and Tom Cruise in a complete suicide manner well, so be it.

    I’ve been saying since April that Bond should’ve delay to late Spring/early Summer 2021. We’ll see how F9 will perform next year...

    *Surprise, within the current market conditions, neither Endgame would save the industry. Why? Because, beside the fact that we don’t even know if theaters will be open by late 2020 and restrictions are a fact of life, most of the people out there would prefer to see NTTD safe at home, instead of being locked inside a room for 3 hours.

    I’m wondering, since releasing NTTD in November will 100% mean missing the $500+ million break even point, a 2022 re-release for the 60th anniversary would be nice.
  • DoctorNoDoctorNo USA-Maryland
    Posts: 755
    I fully recognize that it's not going to be able to make blockbuster $$$$ for a long time, and probably never WILL see the sort of returns it would have seen in a pre-COVID world. But we are where we are and we take what we can get. I recognize this fact, the movie moguls recognize this fact, and I don't think anybody's going to fault the Bond franchise for not bringing in a billion bucks this time around.

    Exactly. If NTTD fails at the box office, no one will be blamed and fired for it, and making Bond films in the future won't be jeopardized. They will most likely be made with smaller budgets, and I'm all for it.

    The only consequence will be that very rich people will lose some money instead of earning some.

    Thank you. Yes.
  • RedNineRedNine Poland
    Posts: 71
    matt_u wrote: »

    Okay? No.

    I don’t see the point of releasing a film in the worst possible window of the year, since by November with colder temperatures affecting Bond’s main markets the situation will get far worse. Everyone’s delaying for a reason, but if we are fine with Bond being the only sacrificial lamb in order to save the industry* for Fast and Furious and Tom Cruise in a complete suicide manner well, so be it.

    I’ve been saying since April that Bond should’ve delay to late Spring/early Summer 2021. We’ll see how F9 will perform next year...

    *Surprise, within the current market conditions, neither Endgame would save the industry. Why? Because, beside the fact that we don’t even know if theaters will be open by late 2020 and restrictions are a fact of life, most of the people out there would prefer to see NTTD safe at home, instead of being locked inside a room for 3 hours.

    I’m wondering, since releasing NTTD in November will 100% mean missing the $500+ million break even point, a 2022 re-release for the 60th anniversary would be nice.
    Yes, everyone is delaying hoping that there is someone who will be willing to risk dropping a movie now. They do not have any incredible forsight, they are just delaying the decision hoping for the best. The reality might just as well be that this is the last time to drop a big movie in theatre because by March they will all go bankrupt or at least few of the big chains will, making it even less profitable. There might also be a situation where everybody will be dropping their movies at the same time, hoping to get as much $ as possible before the industry crash. No Time To Die is in a different position then those other movies because they actually already spent big amount of money on marketing and waiting another year makes all those money go to waste while now the effect of that might still linger in people's minds. Also it's worth noting that while Tenet underperformed it still performs roughly as well as a new IP not directed by Christopher Nolan would in normal circumstances. There is still money to be made, especially internationally where Bond always performed well
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Apparently AMC theaters are set to start closing certain locations (in the USA) on weekdays as early as next week due to Tenet's severe underperfomance and terrible box office numbers as a whole.

    Also: the Liam Neeson action flick Honest Thief has been delayed by 1 week, in anticipating of more theaters being open by October 16th. This leaves War with Grandpa as the only new wide release in the next 3 weeks.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    RedNine wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »

    Okay? No.

    I don’t see the point of releasing a film in the worst possible window of the year, since by November with colder temperatures affecting Bond’s main markets the situation will get far worse. Everyone’s delaying for a reason, but if we are fine with Bond being the only sacrificial lamb in order to save the industry* for Fast and Furious and Tom Cruise in a complete suicide manner well, so be it.

    I’ve been saying since April that Bond should’ve delay to late Spring/early Summer 2021. We’ll see how F9 will perform next year...

    *Surprise, within the current market conditions, neither Endgame would save the industry. Why? Because, beside the fact that we don’t even know if theaters will be open by late 2020 and restrictions are a fact of life, most of the people out there would prefer to see NTTD safe at home, instead of being locked inside a room for 3 hours.

    I’m wondering, since releasing NTTD in November will 100% mean missing the $500+ million break even point, a 2022 re-release for the 60th anniversary would be nice.
    Yes, everyone is delaying hoping that there is someone who will be willing to risk dropping a movie now. They do not have any incredible forsight, they are just delaying the decision hoping for the best. The reality might just as well be that this is the last time to drop a big movie in theatre because by March they will all go bankrupt or at least few of the big chains will, making it even less profitable. There might also be a situation where everybody will be dropping their movies at the same time, hoping to get as much $ as possible before the industry crash. No Time To Die is in a different position then those other movies because they actually already spent big amount of money on marketing and waiting another year makes all those money go to waste while now the effect of that might still linger in people's minds. Also it's worth noting that while Tenet underperformed it still performs roughly as well as a new IP not directed by Christopher Nolan would in normal circumstances. There is still money to be made, especially internationally where Bond always performed well

    Money to be made? Yes there is, but it is not remotely enough. I see your point but it was EoN decision to start again the marketing campaign right after Tenet first encouraging weekend, and honestly I don’t see $30/50 million already lost on marketing a solid reason to release the film right through the flu season knowing it will lose in the best case scenario 50% of its pre-Covid potential gross.
  • DoctorNoDoctorNo USA-Maryland
    Posts: 755
    You’re forgetting MGM... they don’t do EoN’s bidding, they make decisions too, some predicated on needing influx of 💰
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 824
    James Bond having defeated Dr.No, Goldfinger and Blofeld is now set to try to save the worldwide cinema industry from the arch villain, Covid.

    Let's hope people are in the mood for a visit to a cinema in November just as respiratory disease starts to thrive.
  • Posts: 3,276
    This leaves War with Grandpa as the only new wide release in the next 3 weeks.
    And that certain movie has been out on Blu-Ray for weeks now.

    The world needs Bond!
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,716
    The UK has recorded over 6,000 new Covid-19 cases today, nearly 2,000 more than yesterday.
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,276
    The UK has recorded over 6,000 new Covid-19 cases today, nearly 2,000 more than yesterday.

    Yeah...well, at least not many people die from it any longer in our part of the world. But more and more people will die or suffer in an indefinite lockdown.
    oc3MUz9.jpg
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 6,298
    A second wave in the UK...not good news.

    Of course here in the US we're still in the first wave.
  • jake24jake24 Sitting at your desk, kissing your lover, eating supper with your familyModerator
    edited September 2020 Posts: 10,591
    I don’t think we should rule out a limited theatrical release followed by PVOD shortly after. That gives Bond fans and film buffs two-three weeks to watch it in cinemas, and the rest of the world won’t have to wait too long to watch it safely at home.

    I believe the only way to launch this year is a staggered theatre release and a PVOD release simultaneously.
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,276
    Meanwhile....... in China:

    "Maoyan Research Institute on Sept. 1 released a report summarizing the first stage of cinemas reopening, which lasted for 43 days, revealing a revived movie market in China.

    After about 6 weeks of reopening, around 75% of all Chinese cinemas have resumed operations"
    https://pandaily.com/43-days-after-re-opening-chinese-movie-theaters-see-new-life/
    gZxZxcr.jpg

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