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What might happen I think is that there will be far more films released via streaming services online. Maybe cinemas will mostly disappear, who knows.
Yes, a 3-4 year wait is possible, and that's assuming we can find a vaccine. (One year is an unprecedented timeline for a vaccine.) If we can't, we will simply have to learn to live with the virus, and the death it brings.
Those latter points are a great way of looking at it - these are unprecedented times and even months into the pandemic, there's a lot that's still up in the air and nobody has any real sense of where things may head. If films keep getting pushed and we have this huge collection of films that'll be battling for a quick release whenever things objectively slow down, a vaccine is released, etc. and we're as close to being "back to normal" as we are, it's going to be chaos and there's no telling how long this may go and if most theater chains will even be able to survive. Might as well lead the way once again and push this out for a digital release sooner rather than later, but that's part confusion and part bias on my part. I just want to see the damn thing already and prep myself for another lengthy hiatus.
After all, if MGM release the film now as a home media thing then they lose a lot of money, but they could be thinking that if there’s a vaccine soon then things might be much brighter this time next year, and this week’s news about vaccines is looking promising, so MGM might think it best just to wait and see...
That’s been my thought since Early March.
Out of interest why do people think NTTD will be released next summer?
Just looking at the evidence, We’re repeatedly told that even a successful vaccine will take c18 months to make and distribute and there is no proof we will ever get one which means social distancing indefinitely. The vaccine results from this week are just that. A Promising start.
Today a leading member of The uk science community told the House of Commons committee this disease is here for possibly decades, possibly forever. If that’s true surely the days of $250 million budgets are done for the foreseeable. We may see a new era of filmmaking.
AIDS has been managed largely by changes to human behaviour. Covid May just be that. Changing management based on seasonal and local and national shifts in cases. That’s doesn’t work on a global scale.
I think next summer is still too much of a gamble. Maybe it’s the only option but I don’t know. We’ll be coming out of a possible winter spring surge. There’s $400 million riding on it. If Eon get this one wrong that’s the end of eon Bonds I would think.
Happy to be proved wrong but I can’t see it.
It won't be the end of Eon's Bond. All the talk about the next Bond film being predicated on the success of this one is nonsense. In normal times yes, but we are not in normal times. If NTTD fails (because of the pandemic), then a number of big budget films will also fail around it. It will be seen in the context of its release.
With you there. Mid-budget films are often the most creatively satisfying.
Cannot agree more. It's more about creativity, soul and brainpower than the blockbuster production.
The relatively small budgets were part of the reason why the first few Bond films were truer to Fleming, perhaps. Once they could afford to build volcano lairs and such, they did.
The best case scenario for me? EoN keeps making great Bond films like they're doing now with a parallel high-quality TV series (Fukunaga being a producer would be a guarantee for a good product) more faithful to the novels so everybody is happy. But not take away Bond from the theaters for me since we ("younger", let's say) already experienced far less Bond films in the cinema than the "original" fans.
*Fun fact: They showed us DAD on DVD at school back in 2003. Don't know how or why... but it was cool. Perhaps I had a Bond fan teacher.
Where does this 99% come from?
Same here. At the end of my sophomore school year one of my teachers wanted to focus on finishing paperwork, so he just had DAD playing on DVD for the students. Most seemed to enjoy it, but when Bond rode that CGI wave there was just a roar of laugher over how bad that looked.
99% of people who use 99% as a statistical figure have made their facts up.
The only diseases we have ever eradicated is smallpox and rinderpest. AIDS, polio, TB, malaria - every other disease in the history of the human species - is still around.
Here is a source. There are many others
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases
Can you please provide a source for your statistic.
Or did you make up an arbitrary figure because you don’t like it?
A plague of the modern world is online ignorance and misinformation replacing facts.
This is sobering and I hope you get to see many, many more Bond films.
Here's an off-the-wall thought. Maybe Barbara and Michael should move out of active producing and into more of an oversight role, keeping the flame in another way, like an archivist.
There are many, many writers and producers who would give anything to make a Bond film, and if guided properly, they could hire a team A and team B to make them every two years again. Mid-range budgets, like you suggest, so it doesn't get out of control (as often).
Doesn't really matter. Of course it's here to stay. We won't simply destroy this virus. But everything changes if and when we can get effective vaccines and if and when we are able to treat the symptoms. As with the flu, we can live with it. Right now, we're all vulnerable to it. In a year, two years, ... from now, that can turn around. Sooner or later, it will stop being such a deadly disease; at least that is what I consider to be most likely.
I don't follow the movie industry close enough, but does anyone here know if there are any movies being released in the various novel ways that are being discussed here: only certain territories, VOD with a small theatrical opening, VOD with a delayed theatrical opening, anything else?
It seems to me a large part of the stalemate between cinemas, distributors and authorities (and I guess the public) is that nobody wants to go first and screw it up.
Or are blockbusters (NTTD, Tenet, Mulan, Fast & Furious and so on) just such a different beast, that nothing opening now can give us any hints?
Saying that the disease is here for possibly decades, possibly forever might be technically true, it is still fearmongering rubbish. The bubonic plague is still here but the last time it caused a serious pandemic was ages ago.
Not yet, but I'm sure those avenues will be explored in the near future. If not by Tenet, then certainly by some of the smaller budgeted studio flicks in the next while. I had thought Halloween Kills would be the first to try something considering its smaller budget would give it ample room to be a success with little strain. But, with that now also going back a year to "guarantee a theatrical experience", I am sure many films will also want to do the same. It could be a domino effect.
There you go then!
=D>
"Unhinged" (with Russell Crowe) has been released in Germany on July 16th, and claimed the top spot on the charts last weekend.
Next week the movie will be released in other european markets. I don't know if the US release date will stay on July 31st.
Then you have movies like "Trolls World Tour", that were released in theatres and as VOD on the same day here.
Of course domestic movies (german language) get released only in cinemas (no talk about VOD here).
"Tenet" may be released in Europe on August 26th, while the US will get a later date.
But VOD will be no choice for a big budget movie like Tenet, Mulan or Bond.
We have encouraging first stage trials.
Nothing more.
Let alone the amount of time it will take to mass produce and vaccinate the whole of humanity possibly in a regular basis.
The best weapon we have against the virus is social distancing.
Unfortunately that runs counter to making lots of money at the cinema.
I think the biggest challenge for movies is not finding a virus by end of December (people always like to use the end of a given year as some sort of marker even though 1st jan means nothing in the broader context of time) - it’s lack of compliance by a population and lack of willingness of leaders to make that compliance as bearable and acceptable as possible.
There is no American film market at present. That represents about 20-25% of NTTD gross. I can’t see things changing favourably for a long time, let alone the genera public’s desire to sit in a confined space with strangers at the height of winter.
Long post incoming so apologies! Gonna try to be as clear and thorough as I can.
wanna first preface that - Unhinged and similar are bad examples as they're independently distributed and produced films, without global studio distribution, so this discussion doesn't really apply to them. They're handled by different distributors in different countries with each following their own plans, including releasing on VOD. We're talking higher-profile global studio movies here.
The biggest experiments to date appear to be:
- Trolls World Tour and other Universal Premium VOD titles (The High Note, Irresistible, The King of Staten Island). They've made the biggest splash to date with 1. trying out a new premium rental business model ($19.99 USD for 48 hours) and 2. pissing off cinema chains (Universal's films are still banned by AMC globally, which affects the release of No Time To Die internationally in cinemas like Odeon that they own). It's worth noting that in some countries - most notably Australia/New Zealand - these films are going to cinemas instead now they're opening up. Some countries like Russia with more relaxed stances on theatrical windows are doing the reverse - Emma (which hadn't come out at the time there) already landed on PVOD there, and is playing in cinemas next month when they reopen!
- Warner Bros with The Way Back and Scoob - similar thing. With the former the film already came out in US cinemas and was rushed to VOD during lockdown. Scoob went to Premium VOD without any cinema presence. In Europe and elsewhere, both films have a similar mix as above, some countries are going PVOD, some are going in cinemas.
It's important to note that in both cases there are no countries (except Russia) that are trying to have a film out both on VOD and in cinemas at the same time or in reverse (VOD first then cinemas). that point is important as that's what AMC banned Universal over, they fear the studio will try do a simultaneous release for some of their future films.
- A third strategy that we have been seeing is films being offloaded by the studios onto streaming services like Netflix, Apple TV+ and HBO Max for their subscribers - where the service (unless it's their own one) pays a price to take the film off their hands. Sony Pictures sold Greyhound and An American Pickle to Apple TV and HBO Max respectively (the former for around $70 million). Paramount sold comedy The Lovebirds and awards title The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Netflix. Warner Bros sold Enola Holmes to Netflix. There are some cases where the films went on their own streaming services - such as Disney taking Artemis Fowl, The One and Only Ivan, and now possibly The New Mutants to Disney+. It is worth noting that none of the above 'streaming acquisitions' have a budget above 100m USD (except Artemis Fowl), nor were they sold to these services for above that amount.
Now, we are about to get a whole new thing with Tenet, which might be a bit of a one off as that film is aimed to be the 'reopening title' for cinemas - which is a slow 'rollout' from August 26 internationally and September 4 in the U.S.. On those dates, the film may release in cinemas in cities and countries that are open at that point, and as regions come out of lockdowns and open their cinemas later on they will then also begin to show the film. Warners' strategy for months with that film - likely at Nolan's behest - is to do their best to help cinemas themselves come out of lockdowns, instead of waiting for a time to bring in most audiences. Depending on how long the patchwork of cinema reopenings on a regional and country level - particularly in the US - goes, we could see other films doing the same. Particularly as there is a ton of pressure from European and Asian sites to not delay films globally further - so there's a good chance IMO that No Time To Die stays where it is in November at least in the countries where Universal is releasing it (which, by and large, have cinemas reopening now and have handled this whole thing okay).
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/tenet-tosses-playbook-staggered-rollout-may-be-new-box-office-normal-1303932?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3dlz4V7_cg8jHcrCK6gAfXXdmlDnFYWWeobyBd3l-9ICE95gvlCXfQUqA
Studio insiders said the espionage epic will go out first overseas, where cinemas have reopened in many European and Asian countries, and have begun to reopen in China.
Warners isn't yet giving exact dates, but sources elsewhere say Tenet hopes to begin opening in international markets in late August before arriving in the U.S. in the first part of September, even if only in select cities. They stress the situation is fluid, however.
“While we in the U.S. think we are the center of the world, we are not. We can’t wait for everything to be perfect,” says one Hollywood studio executive. Another executive adds, “There is a real opportunity here to think outside the box and not be constrained by legacy.”
So... can NTTD wait for everything to be "perfect"?